Month: August 2012

Oakland Raiders 2013 Franchise Tag Candidates

stevenlourie News, Raiders

P Shane Lechler

Punters and kickers are the most often franchised because the franchise tag values for them are very cheap and franchising them makes a lot more sense than giving them a long term deal. The Raiders don’t have another option that makes any sense and Lechler is one of the best punters in the league (47.6 yards per punt career average). They will likely franchise him, if they can’t get a long term deal hammered out before hand, even though the franchise tag value would be 4.56 million for him (120% of his 2012 season, which is 3.8 million).

Likelihood: Likely

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Denver Broncos 2013 Franchise Tag Candidates

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OT Ryan Clady

This one is a no brainer. The Broncos don’t have any other options that make any sense and they won’t let their franchise left tackle hit the open market, even though, as I’ve explained before, he’s one of the most overrated players in the NFL. Still, those guys are available on the open market almost as rarely as franchise quarterbacks. Clady and the Broncos have tabled contract talks for now and since they were willing to offer him 5 years, 50 million (which he rejected), they’ll have no problem slapping the franchise tag on him (9.4 million in 2012).

Likelihood: Very likely

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San Diego Chargers 2013 Franchise Tag Candidates

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K Nate Kaeding

Punters and kickers are the most often franchised because the franchise tag values for them are very cheap and franchising them makes a lot more sense than giving them a long term deal.  Kaeding is a career 86.5% field goal kicker, but he missed all of last season with injury. If he can bounce back in 2012, the Chargers could easily franchise him, especially since they don’t have another obvious candidate for the tag.

Likelihood: Likely

OLB Shaun Phillips

Phillips has been one of the Chargers’ best pass rushers over the last few seasons, but he’ll be heading into his age 32 season in 2013 it would make sense for the Chargers to franchise him, rather than give him a long term deal. However, he’s coming off an injury plagued season and an aging player, so he’ll need a bounce back year to prove he’d even be worth the linebacker franchise tag (8.8 million in 2012) at age 32. Even if he does that, the Chargers may just opt to move on from the aging Phillips, after bringing in two new rush linebackers this offseason, Melvin Ingram (draft) and Jarret Johnson (free agency).

Likelihood: Unlikely

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Tennessee Titans 2013 Franchise Tag Candidates

stevenlourie News, Titans

TE Jared Cook

Jared Cook had a breakout year in 2011, catching 49 passes for 759 yards and 3 touchdowns and was even better in his final 3 games, catching 21 passes for 335 yards and a score. If he can reproduce those numbers or exceed them in his 4th season in the league, the Titans could definitely franchise tag him, especially since the franchise tag value for tight ends was the lowest of the non-special teamers in 2012, just 5.4 million. The Titans do have other options though.

Likelihood: Somewhat likely

CB Jason McCourty

The Titans lost their #1 cornerback, Cortland Finnegan, this offseason and want to avoid losing their new #1 cornerback, Jason McCourty, next offseason. However, the cornerback franchise tag value was tied for 2nd highest in the league in 2012, 10.6 million, so McCourty, who is getting promoted from the #2 to #1 cornerback, will have to show that he’s a legitimate elite cornerback capable of shutting down opponent’s #1 receivers. The Titans are working on extensions with him and Cook right now, but likely feel more urgency to sign McCourty, as he plays a more important position and would have a more expensive franchise tag value.

Likelihood: Somewhat likely

K Rob Bironas

Punters and kickers are the most often franchised because the franchise tag values for them are very cheap and franchising them makes a lot more sense than giving them a long term deal. However, they’re almost always franchised only when the team doesn’t have someone more important to franchise. While they won’t want Bironas, a career 86.3% kicker who has been with the Titans since 2005, to leave, they’ll only franchise him if McCourty and Cook are both under contract or regress prove themselves unworthy of the franchise tag.

Likelihood: Somewhat unlikely

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Jacksonville Jaguars 2013 Franchise Tag Candidates

stevenlourie Jaguars, News

OLB Daryl Smith

Smith is one of the best outside linebackers in the league, but the linebacker franchise tag value (8.8 million in 2012) is inflated by the salaries of rush linebackers and thus non-rush linebackers rarely get tagged. After an offseason in which Curtis Lofton, Stephen Tulloch, and David Hawthorne got 27.5 million, 25.5 million, and 19 million respectively over 5 years, the Jaguars are unlikely to commit over 8.8 million to Smith over just one season.

Likelihood: Unlikely

CB Derek Cox

Cox is an interesting case. A 3rd round pick in 2009, Cox stunk it up his first two years in the NFL, but looked like a legitimate #1 cornerback in 2011 before getting hurt, allowing just 9 completions on 28 attempts (32.1%), 105 yards (3.8 YPA), while deflecting 3 passes and committing 1 penalty. If he can stay healthy and play well for an entire season, the Jaguars might consider using the franchise tag on him, but those are big ifs and the franchise tag value for cornerbacks was tied for the 2nd highest in 2012 (10.6 million).

Likelihood: Somewhat unlikely

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Houston Texans 2013 Franchise Tag Candidates

stevenlourie News, Texans

QB Matt Schaub

The only reason the Texans haven’t extended Schaub yet is because they want him to prove he can stay healthy, after missing 5+ games in 3 of the last 5 seasons. If he does that this year, he’ll definitely get the tag. A healthy Schaub could lead this team to the Super Bowl or, at the very least, a strong season. They won’t let him get away if they do that.

Likelihood: Very likely

OT Duane Brown

A 1st round pick in 2008, Brown had an amazing season in 2012, not allowing a sack on the blindside in 18 games, including playoffs. Under normal circumstances, they wouldn’t let him hit the open market, but they can’t tag both him and Schaub. They’re trying to extend Brown before the start of the season, right now, which makes a lot more sense than potentially letting him or Schaub get away after next season.

Likelihood: Unlikely

Connor Barwin

Connor Barwin is definitely deserving of the franchise tag after a strong season in his first year as a starter, but he’d only get it if Brown and Schaub were extended before free agency starts, or if, for whatever reason, Schaub proved himself not to be worthy of the tag. As with Brown, the Texans are currently trying to do a long term deal with Barwin. If they can’t get one of them signed before free agency, it’ll be very tough for them to keep all three of their important cogs.

Likelihood: Very unlikely

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Indianapolis Colts 2013 Franchise Tag Candidates

stevenlourie Colts, News

OLB Dwight Freeney

Dwight Freeney has been one of the best pass rushers in the league over the past decade or so, but, heading into his age 33 season in 2013, the Colts will be wary about committing too much to him long term. If he continues to produce in 2012, he would, under normal circumstances, be a natural candidate for the franchise tag, so he could get his money and the Colts won’t have to commit too much to him long term.

However, these are not normal circumstances, as, rather than the regular linebacker franchise tag value (8.8 million in 2012), Freeney would be guaranteed over 120% of his 2012 salary, which was 14.035 million. There’s very little chance they’d risk having to commit 16.842 million to him in 2013 at age 33, especially on a rebuilding team.

Likelihood: Very unlikely

P Pat McAfee

Punters and kickers are the most often franchised because the franchise tag values for them are very cheap and franchising them makes a lot more sense than giving them a long term deal. McAfee has a solid 44.5 yards per punt average in his career and, if he has another season like 2011 (46.6 yards per punt) in 2012, he’d become a natural candidate for the franchise tag.

Likelihood: Likely

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Cincinnati Bengals 2013 Franchise Tag Candidates

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MLB Rey Maualuga

Maualuga is a good linebacker, but the linebacker franchise tag value (8.8 million in 2012) is inflated by the salaries of rush linebackers and thus non-rush linebackers rarely get tagged. After an offseason in which Curtis Lofton, Stephen Tulloch, and David Hawthorne got 27.5 million, 25.5 million, and 19 million respectively over 5 years, the Bengals are unlikely to commit 8.8 million to Maualuga over just one season.

Likelihood: Very unlikely

P Kevin Huber

Punters and kickers are the most often franchised because the franchise tag values for them are very cheap and franchising them makes a lot more sense than giving them a long term deal. Huber has just a 43.3 yards per punt average in his career though, so he’ll need a career best year to prove he’s worth being franchised.

Likelihood: Unlikely

K Mike Nugent

Nugent is a good kicker and received the franchise tag this offseason, meaning he’d be owed at least 3.1848 million if he were to be franchised again. There is some precedent for this type of thing though, especially with kickers and punters, and if Nugent, a career 80.9% kicker, nails 86.8% again, the Bengals might slap him with the tag for the 2nd straight season, especially since they don’t really have anyone better to tag.

Likelihood: Somewhat likely

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Cleveland Browns 2013 Franchise Tag Candidates

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P Reggie Hodges

Punters and kickers are the most often franchised because the franchise tag values for them are very cheap and franchising them makes a lot more sense than giving them a long term deal. However, Hodges missed the entirety of the 2011 season with an Achilles tear and is just a 41.3 yards per punt career punter. It’ll take a career year for him to be deemed worthy of the tag.

Likelihood: Unlikely

K Phil Dawson

As I said, Punters and kickers are the most often franchised because the franchise tag values for them are very cheap and franchising them makes a lot more sense than giving them a long term deal. However, Dawson has already been franchised twice so his tag value would be 5.3 million for the 2013 season. While Dawson is one of the best kickers in the game, it doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to commit that kind of money to a kicker.

Likelihood: Somewhat unlikely

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Baltimore Ravens 2013 Franchise Tag Candidates

stevenlourie News, Ravens

QB Joe Flacco

This is a make or break season for Joe Flacco as he heads into a contract year. If he can prove himself to be more than just a game manager who is blessed with a strong supporting cast, the Ravens will have no problem franchise tagging him, even though the franchise tag value in 2012 was a whopping 16.1 million. If he can’t do that, they might see that amount as way too expensive for Flacco, even if it means risking losing him as a free agent. The two sides are currently trying to work on a contract before the season, which seems more likely than Flacco having a career year in his 5th year in the league and earning a contract worth over 16 million yearly.

Likelihood: Somewhat likely

S Ed Reed

Ed Reed won’t be subject to the normal franchise tag value (6.2 million in 2012) because he’ll make 7.2 million this season so the franchise tag value will be 8.64 million for him in 2013. That’s a lot for a 34 year old, but the Ravens might not want him to escape and if they can’t get him signed to a team friendly long term deal, they might tag him and just go year to year with him since he’s such a valuable part of their defense.

Likelihood: Somewhat unlikely

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