Randy Moss won’t start for 49ers?

August 23, 2012 stevenlourie 49ers, News

When the 49ers signed Randy Moss, it was certainly a high profile move for a team that lacked high profile wide receivers, but he was out of the league in 2011 and caught just 28 passes with 3 teams in 2010, so it’s fair to question how much he has left, if anything, as he heads into his age 35 season. One of the most telling things is how a team views a player. For the 49ers and the Randy Moss, it doesn’t look like they view him as a starter.

Multiple reports, including ones from SI and ESPN, say that Moss will not start for the 49ers this season. ESPN says that Moss will play in a receiver rotation this season, while SI reports that the 49ers want Moss to play about 20-25 snaps per game. Neither of those things says starter. Another offseason acquisition, Mario Manningham, has had a strong Training Camp and preseason and would be the most likely choice to start opposite Michael Crabtree, though remember, they will be rotating receivers.

Moss is off the fantasy radar as are all 49er receivers other than Crabtree. Even Crabtree should not be rated very high as he’s not likely to get the 72 catches for 857 yards and 4 touchdowns he had last season with all these new targets around him. Only Vernon Davis is worth getting excited about in fantasy circles. After Davis finally got Jim Harbaugh’s playbook down last season, he caught fire late and caught 28 passes for 538 yards and 5 touchdowns in their last 5 games, including playoffs. He should bounce back to his 2009 and 2010 levels of production (78/965/13 and 56/914/7) after a down season in 2011 (67/792/6).

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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Patriots cut Jonathan Fanene

August 23, 2012 stevenlourie News, Patriots

The Patriots have cut defensive lineman Jonathan Fanene roughly 5 months after giving him 3 year, 12 million dollar deal with a 3.85 million dollar bonus. Fanene played pretty well as an inside/outside defensive lineman for the Bengals last season, with 7 sacks, 7 quarterback hits, and 15 quarterback pressures on 332 pass rush snaps, a 8.7% rate, and he also played the run well. With the Patriots, he was supposed to be a versatile rotational defensive lineman, playing defensive end in their 3-4 and defensive tackle and defensive end in their 4-3.

However, Fanene missed a lot of Training Camp with knee problems and will need surgery, which is why the Patriots cut him. Ordinarily, the Patriots would have to eat that 3.85 million dollar bonus, but they released him under a “failure to disclose physical condition” designation, suggesting that Fanene had a condition that he didn’t notify the Patriots about. If that is, in fact, the case, they’ll be entitled to get back at least a large chunk of that signing bonus. As for Fanene, the Bengals are thin at defensive end and might welcome him back, but he’ll miss 1-2 months after knee surgery first.

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Seahawks not expecting a Marshawn Lynch suspension in 2012

August 23, 2012 stevenlourie News, Seahawks

According to a report from ESPN.com, the Seahawks have not heard anything about a potential Marshawn Lynch suspension and they are taking the no news as good news after Lynch’s DUI arrest last month. Lynch had been arrested 3 other times in his career and got a 3 game suspension in 2009, though all of his prior transgressions were in violation of the league’s personal conduct policy and this alleged offense was in violation of the league’s substance abuse policy.

Previous reports have also said that Roger Goodell wants to wait until the results of Lynch’s trial before determining punishment, which could very well not be until the 2013 season. Unlike Kenny Britt, Lynch has yet to be called up for a visit with the commissioner, which is good news. Lynch should be ready to go week 1 and play all 16 games if healthy.

I’d just be wary of buying too high on him. He runs behind a poor offensive line on a generally poor offense and he doesn’t catch a lot of passes. Plus, before last year, he didn’t really do much of note in the prior 2 years and, given his history, he could slack off now that he’s gotten paid. I’d let him be someone else’s problem in fantasy leagues unless he really fell.

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James Starks, Graham Harrell on Packers’ roster bubble

August 23, 2012 stevenlourie News, Packers

There was a time when James Starks looked like the starting running back for the Packers. Even though Starks had injury issues dating back to his days at the University of Buffalo and had averaged just 4.2 YPC on only 162 career carries in 2 years after going in the 6^th round in 2010, the Packers were committed to him as the starter for most of the offseason. However, after a rough Training Camp and preseason and then a turf toe injury that still has him sidelined and likely will into the season, the Packers signed Cedric Benson, a similar style veteran back, to essentially take his job.

Now, if the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel is to be believed, Starks is in danger of losing his roster spot all together as the Packers could keep Brandon Saine, a much less injury prone back, over him at final cuts, if the team does decide to keep only 3 running backs. Saine was an undrafted free agent just last year and rushed for just 69 yards on 18 carries last year (3.8 YPC), but he doesn’t have Starks’ injury history so he’s a much more reliable #3 back and the Packers have been high on him all offseason. Either way, Cedric Benson looks entrenched as the starter, with 2011 3^rd round pick Alex Green serving as the change of pace back.

Graham Harrell, meanwhile, is currently listed as the Packers’ #2 quarterback, but struggled mightily in his first extended playing time last week, completing 12 of 24 for just 100 yards and 2 touchdowns against Cleveland’s 2^nd and 3^rd string defenders. He will get another chance to prove himself this week, but he might need to do a lot to earn back the respect of the coaching staff. The 2009 undrafted free agent has yet to throw a regular season pass in the NFL.

If he doesn’t turn it around quickly, the Packers are fully expected to pursue either Colt McCoy or Tarvaris Jackson from the Browns and Seahawks respectively as veteran backups for Aaron Rodgers. If that happens, Harrell will need the Packers to keep 3 quarterbacks AND cut 7^th round rookie BJ Coleman, currently the 3^rd string quarterback, to make the roster. The same Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel mentioned him as a potential final cut and they may very well be right about that.

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Bills release Shawne Merriman

August 23, 2012 stevenlourie Bills, News

It may be lights out for lights out. Shawne “lights out” Merriman had 40 sacks in his first 3 years in the league from 2005-2007 with the Chargers after going in the 1st round in 2005, but he’s had just 5 sacks in 4 seasons since. Though he was reportedly in better shape than any of the past few years this offseason, leading some to expect him to carve out a situational role on the Bills’ defensive line, his salary of 4 million dollars was too much for the Bills and they cut him ahead of final cuts.

Even though he’s only heading into his age 28 season, he won’t generate much interest on the open market, so close to final cuts (September 2^nd). This might be it for his career. It’s telling that the Rams, in need of defensive end depth, tried out Andre Carter and Vernon Gholston, signing Gholston, but didn’t give Merriman a look.

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Steelers expect James Harrison back for week 1

August 23, 2012 stevenlourie News, Steelers

James Harrison had a knee scope last week, but the procedure was minor and both he and the Steelers expect him to be out there week 1, even though he’s missed all of Training Camp. Harrison is obviously a huge part of the Steelers’ defense, with 9 sacks, 11 quarterback hits, and 26 quarterback pressures on 276 pass rush snaps last year, a rate of 16.7%.

As tremendous as that rate is, it’s nothing new for Harrison, who had 38 sacks, 35 quarterback hits, and 99 quarterback pressures from 2008-2010 on 1208 pass rush snaps, a rate of 14.2%. One of the league most well rounded players, Harrison also drops into coverage and stops the run well. However, he’s heading into his age 34 season and he missed 5 games with injury last year so it’s fair to wonder if his body is starting to break down.

His injury would not be nearly as big of a deal if Jason Worilds were healthy, but the 2010 2^nd round pick has missed since June with a wrist injury and has no timetable to return. Filling in when guys went down with injury last year, Worilds did his best Harrison impression, at least as a pass rusher, with 3 sacks, 7 quarterback hit, and 20 quarterback pressures on 204 pass rush snaps, a rate of 14.7%. In the absence of both Worilds and Harrison, Chris Carter is playing with the first team in practice and in preseason games. The 2011 5^th round pick played just 46 snaps as a rookie last year.

The Steelers also don’t want to move Lawrence Timmons back outside, which they did last year. Timmons, ProFootballFocus’ highest rated middle linebacker in 2010, struggled mightily on the outside last year, especially as a pass rusher with just 2 quarterback hits and 1 quarterback pressure on 114 pass rush snaps in 4 starts, a pathetic 2.6% rate.

He’s not a natural pass rusher at all and the Steelers would just be weakening two positions at once by moving him out there since he’s so good at middle linebacker. The Steelers would obviously be best off if Harrison could play week 1 or early in the season at the latest. It sounds like there’s a good chance he does that, but he’s no guarantee to remain healthy after he returns. Hopefully Worilds will be back by then.

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Ben Watson could be a final cut for Browns

August 23, 2012 stevenlourie Browns, News

Ben Watson was the Browns’ leading receiver as recently as 2010, producing very good numbers for a tight end, catching 68 passes for 763 yards and 3 touchdowns, with the former two stats being career highs. After largely failing to live up to his expectations in New England as a 2004 1^st round pick, it seemed that Watson had finally emerged as an above average starting tight end. However, in 2011, he regressed, catching just 37 passes for 410 yards and 2 scores. Heading into his age 32 season, he’s apparently even on the roster bubble according to the Canton Repository.

This makes some sense as Watson is owed 2.88 million this season and they have a young tight end on the roster behind him waiting for a chance, 2011 4^th round pick Jordan Cameron, who is having a strong offseason. Watson didn’t help his case by missing a big chunk of Training Camp with an unspecified injury. Another tight end reportedly on the roster bubble is Evan Moore, according to the Cleveland Plain Dealer.

Moore, currently 4^th on the depth chart, has missed time this preseason with hamstring problems and is owed 1.88 million next season. He also has 62 career catches, but 34 of them were last season for the 2008 undrafted free agent. The Browns will almost certainly cut a tight end as it’s unlikely that they’ll go into 2012 with all 4 of Watson, Cameron, Moore, and Alex Smith. Smith seems locked in as a blocking specialist and Cameron has been really impressing this offseason, so it would appear to be between Watson and Moore for the final roster spot. If they don’t care about financials, they’ll keep Watson. If not, it’ll probably be Moore making the roster.

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Rams sign Vernon Gholston

August 23, 2012 stevenlourie News, Rams

Obviously feeling the need for added defensive end depth, the Rams worked out Andre Carter and Vernon Gholston over the past 2 days, signing Gholston today. The Rams have one of the best defensive ends in the league, Chris Long, who had 13 sacks, 12 quarterback hits, and 58 quarterback pressures on 515 pass rush snaps last year, an amazing 16.1% rate.

They also have a budding star in Robert Quinn, the 14^th overall pick in the 2011 NFL Draft, who will be a starter this year after excelling in a situational role as a rookie, with 6 sacks, 9 quarterback hits, and 21 quarterback pressures on 341 pass rush snaps, good for an also impressive 10.6% rate. Meanwhile, free agent acquisition and 3^rd string defensive end Williams Hayes thrived in Jeff Fisher’s scheme in Tennessee in 2010, with 2 sacks, 5 quarterback hits, and 23 quarterback pressures on 326 pass rush snaps, a rate of 9.2%. Still, they felt they needed added depth at the position.

That being said, Gholston didn’t play a snap in the NFL last season, after being signed by the Bears before the season and then cut as part of final cuts. If the Bears couldn’t turn around the career of Gholston, the 6^th overall pick in the 2008 NFL Draft, I don’t think he’ll ever get his career turned around. In 3 years with the Jets from 2008-2010, he didn’t manage a sack and struggled to crack the starting lineup on a consistent basis. With so few days before final cuts (September 2nd) to make an impression, Gholston is more likely to be a final cut than make the 53 man roster.

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Cowboys’ Jason Witten avoids surgery, doubtful for week 1

August 23, 2012 stevenlourie Cowboys, News

Jason Witten got good news today when he found out that his lacerated spleen would not need surgery. After lacerating his spleen in a preseason game against the Raiders last Monday, Witten had to basically sit around and be idle for 7-10 days and wait to see if it healed, otherwise he would have needed surgery. It would seem it has, which is obviously very good news.

However, after spending 7-10 days idle, Witten is unlikely to be ready to play week 1, according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter. Witten’s chances are hurt by the fact that the Cowboys play their opener on Wednesday Night Football against the Giants, September 5th, so they’ll have 4 fewer days to prepare than the rest of the league. Schefter went on to say that it’s “more likely” that Witten would be back week 2, but stopped short of assuring a week 2 return for Witten. More likely, Witten will be back to his old self by week 3.

Witten, who has not missed a game since his rookie year in 2003, has averaged 5.16 catches for 59.07 yards and 0.31 touchdowns per game since 2004. Considering his amazing consistency (between 64 catches for 754 yards and 96 catches for 1145 yards in every season since 2004), he should be able to do that again this season. If he plays 14 games and averages those numbers, he’d have 72 catches for 827 yards and 4 touchdowns. That would seem to be his statistical floor this season. He’s still a safe bet as a TE1 in fantasy leagues. It’s a very deep tight end year so you can find someone to fill in for him in your lineup for a week or two pretty easily.

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Jets won’t commit to Wayne Hunter as week 1 starter

August 22, 2012 stevenlourie Jets, News

Jets’ Head Coach Rex Ryan has publicly stood behind right tackle Wayne Hunter all offseason, even though he was awful last season, his first full season as a starter, committing 11 penalties and allowing 11 sacks, 11 quarterback hits, and 32 quarterback pressures. He also struggled as a run blocker and graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 67^th offensive tackle out of 73. Privately, he hasn’t been as supportive of Hunter and it showed when the Jets tried to trade for Jeff Otah, an injury prone former 1^st round pick and starter of the Carolina Panthers, before Otah failed to pass a physical and was sent back to Carolina, who eventually cut him.

However, after Hunter’s awful showing in the Jets’ last preseason game, in which he surrendered 3 sacks in just about a half of action, it seems that Ryan’s public support of Hunter is waning. He refused to commit to Hunter as the week 1 starter in an interview with the New York Daily News and the Jets have given backup Austin Howard a bunch of 1^st team reps in practice this week.

Howard and Hunter will probably alternate 1^st team series in the Jets’ 3^rd preseason game this week and Hunter seems like a legitimate option for the Jets week 1. He might not be any better and the 2010 undrafted free agent has only played in 2 games in his career, including one start, surrendering 2 sacks and 2 quarterback pressures week 17 with the Eagles in 2010. However, he can’t be much worse. Either way, right tackle will likely be a position of weakness on the Jets’ offensive line this season.

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Football Fan Spot

A site for football fans

Month: August 2012

Randy Moss won’t start for 49ers?

Patriots cut Jonathan Fanene

Seahawks not expecting a Marshawn Lynch suspension in 2012

James Starks, Graham Harrell on Packers’ roster bubble

Bills release Shawne Merriman

Steelers expect James Harrison back for week 1

Ben Watson could be a final cut for Browns

Rams sign Vernon Gholston

Cowboys’ Jason Witten avoids surgery, doubtful for week 1

Jets won’t commit to Wayne Hunter as week 1 starter