Dallas Cowboys (0-0) at New York Giants (0-0)
I might be the biggest Giants doubter left out there. I believe that this is not an elite team, but a very good team that can get hot and play like an elite team for stretches. They did that down the stretch last season, but I think this season, we’re going to see them play like they normally play, pretty well, but not good enough to be considered among the elite teams in the league. That being said, this line is absolutely ridiculous. The Giants are -3.5 at home against the Cowboys, who they beat twice in 4 weeks last season, hanging 68 points on them, while allowing just 48. This line suggests that Cowboys are just a half point better than the Giants (add 3 for home field advantage).
Part of that is just that the Cowboys are being very overrated right now, once again. They’re a frequently overrated team because of their name and their status as America’s team, but they never seem to meet expectations and I think this season will be another instance of that. Their interior offensive line still sucks. In fact, it might be worse with Nate Livings, one of the worst interior offensive lineman in the league last year, coming in at left guard and at right guard, it will be Mackenzy Bernadeau, a career backup and former 7th round pick randomly given a starter’s salary and starting job in Dallas this offseason. Kyle Kosier and Montrae Holland are gone and, as strange as it might sound, they might miss those two. Phil Costa, one of the worst centers in the league last year, returns, unfortunately.
They also lack depth in the receiving corps and at running back. The former is more important in this game because Jason Witten is unlikely to play. Dez Bryant and Miles Austin are likely to play, after both dealt with injuries in the preseason, but it’s very concerning that the latter’s injury was a hamstring problem. Those things tend to linger and affect your ability to play at your normal level of play even if you do play. Austin missed 6 games with hamstring problems last year and was limited to just 43 catches for 579 yards and 7 touchdowns in 10 games last year, well off his career averages. Behind Bryant, Austin, and Witten, their backup receivers have a combined 37 career catches. John Phillips, who has 22 of those, will get the start in Witten’s likely absence, which is a major downgrade, both as a pass catcher and as a run blocker. Jason Witten is frequently one of the best run blocking tight ends in the league.
The Cowboys lack of depth at running back is notable because starter DeMarco Murray has injury issues dating back to his days at the University of Oklahoma. His primary backup is Felix Jones, but he’s never proven he can handle the load when given a chance to start and he’ll probably get hurt before Murray, given his history. The Cowboys added two new cornerbacks, Morris Claiborne and Brandon Carr, after getting torched by the Giants last season, but only the latter will have much of a positive impact in this game. Rookie cornerbacks like Claiborne tend to take a year or so to get up to NFL speed. Even Patrick Peterson really struggled in coverage last year. Claiborne probably won’t have a very good 1st game in the NFL, which is notable because the Giants have two great receivers in Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz. They won’t be able to contain both. The safety position and defensive line, especially with Jay Ratliff hurt, are also weaknesses and they still lack a complimentary pass rusher opposite DeMarcus Ware, so defense is still a problem and the Giants should be able to move the ball pretty easily.
The Giants are dealing with their own injuries at left tackle and cornerback, but it’s not a huge issue because they dealt with injuries there last year and still won the Super Bowl. The latter is not much of a concern at all. Yes, with William Beatty expected out, Sean Locklear is going to have his hands full with DeMarcus Ware, but Eli Manning, like his brother is one of the best in the league at throwing under pressure and avoiding sacks. Eli Manning’s under pressure accuracy percentage (doesn’t count drops, throw aways, hit as throwns, spikes, or batted passes) was 70.3% last season, which led the league. Meanwhile, his sack percentage (sacks per pressured drop back) was 12.4%, only behind Michael Vick. It’s because of this that he was able to win the Super Bowl despite having the worst offensive line in the league in terms of pass blocking efficiency. For example, Eli Manning was under pressure from DeMarcus Ware 12 times in 2 games last year with David Diehl starting in place of an injured Beatty, but only took 2 sacks. Eli will neutralize Ware again.
The injury at cornerback is slightly more concerning. Yes, Terrell Thomas missed all of last season with injury and Prince Amukamara, who is expected to miss this game with injury, didn’t have much of an impact as a rookie. Aaron Ross is gone, meaning Michael Coe will step into the starting lineup. Ross wasn’t great, so it’s not a major downgrade from what the Giants threw at the Cowboys last season, but up until the playoffs, the Giants didn’t really do a good job of stopping anyone. They allowed 25.0 points per game, including 24 per to the Cowboys in their two meetings and that was after they had their trio of defensive ends mostly healthy (Umenyiora did miss the first game). The Cowboys will be able to move the ball pretty well.
This is going to be a shootout, but the question is, can the Cowboys beat up with the Giants? I don’t think so. The Cowboys’ offensive line will be overwhelmed by the Giants pass rush and unlike Manning, Romo isn’t quite as bulletproof under pressure. His under pressure accuracy was 64.6% last year, pretty good, but not as good as Manning. His also took a sack on 20.5% of pressured snaps, 7th worst in the NFL. The Giants will get to him for a few sacks and stall a few drives and keep him pressured really for most of the evening. Both teams will be able to run the ball pretty well with good talent at running back. The Giants had the worse run defense last year, 4.5 YPC, and are now missing Chris Canty for the year, a talented starter for them last year at defensive tackle. The Cowboys allowed 4.1 YPC, but they’re also missing top defensive tackle Jay Ratliff have the worse interior offensive line so they won’t be able to fully take advantage of the Giants’ struggles against the run. Both teams will run pretty well, but neither team will distinguish itself from the other on the ground.
When it comes down to it, I like Eli Manning to outplay Tony Romo in this one once again. It’ll be a high scoring affair, but I think the Giants have the better team and they always seem to have the Cowboys’ number, beating them in 5 of their last 6 matchups. They also play much better football in the 1st half of the season, going 47-17 in their first 8 games under Tom Coughlin, as opposed to 27-37 in their last 8. Through week 9, they’re 40-25 ATS under Coughlin.
The Giants also have the situational edge as they’re playing in a “stand alone” week 1 game as defending Super Bowl Champs. Since the NFL started the traditional of having defending Super Bowl champions play in a week 1 “stand alone” game at home in 2002 (first on Monday Night Football, then Thursday Night Football, and this year on Wednesday Night Football because of some stupid political crap), the defending champ is 10-0 and covers 7 out of 10 times. Teams are normally very emotional and amped up after the pregame celebration and that translates to the field in a positive manner. I don’t think the Giants will break tradition here and I am fairly certain they will win and cover.
Prediction: New York Giants 31 Dallas Cowboys 20
Pick against spread: NY Giants -3.5 (-110) 4 units
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