New England Patriots (0-0) at Tennessee Titans (0-0)
The Titans are one of my favorite sleeper teams. Defensively, they had the league’s 8th ranked scoring defense last year and while they lost Cortland Finnegan, the combination of an improved pass rush (with Derrick Morgan finally healthy and Kamerion Wimbley coming in), their depth at cornerback (new starter Alterraun Verner played very well last season), and the continued maturation of their young defense (6 of 11 starters last year had been drafted in 2009 or later) will make up for that.
Offensively, they will continue to have one of the best passing blocking offensive lines, led by bookend tackles Michael Roos and David Stewart and their run blocking should be better with Steve Hutchinson replacing Jake Scott at guard. Meanwhile, Chris Johnson should be back to his old self, while Kenny Britt returns from injury. Chris Johnson averaged 3.0 YPC in his first 8 games last season after missing most of the offseason with a new coaching staff coming in and also getting out of shape. However, he averaged 4.8 YPC the rest of the way and put in a ton of work this offseason to get back into tip top shape, attending every single one of the Titans’ offseason activities, even the optional ones (OTAs) which he would normally skip in order to train at home in Orlando. Britt, meanwhile, missed 13 ½ games with injury last year, but he’s still only 24 (later this month) and the 2009 1st round pick has 56 catches for 1146 yards and 12 touchdowns in his last 13 full games.
In 2010, when Britt was healthy (11 games) and Chris Johnson was still his old self, the Titans averaged 27.1 points per game in those 11 games. That number is a little skewed because the Titans had an unrealistically low yards per point ratio, but the point is, when they have all their offensive weapons, they can put points on the board. Since then, Nate Washington and Jared Cook have broken out in Britt’s absence and the latter could be even better this year after catching 21 passes for 335 yards and a touchdown in his final 3 years last year. They also add 1st round pick Kendall Wright as a 3rd receiver. On top of that, they’ve made an obvious upgrade at quarterback going from Kerry Collins and Vince Young to Matt Hasselbeck and now to Jake Locker, who led them to 1.83 points per drive last year, as opposed to 1.63 points per drive for Hasselbeck (albiet in limited action). Basically, I feel the same way about the Titans that I did at this point last year about the Lions, who proved me right.
The Titans are clearly underrated as 6 point home underdogs (with negative juice at -105). That translates to a line of -12 in New England (3 points each way for home field). For reference, Buffalo was just -11 in New England week 17 of last year and they finished 6-10. Meanwhile, the Patriots were -7 in Washington last year towards the end of the season and they finished 5-11 (and failed to cover). The Titans were 9-7 last year and might have a top-10 offense and defense this year. Even if you don’t agree with me that the Titans will be good, you have to agree that they’ll be better than 5-11 or 6-10. There’s serious line value here.
On top of all this, the Patriots were Super Bowl runner ups last year. Those teams are 3-15 ATS week 1 the following season. The Steelers got blown out in Baltimore last year in this same situation. The Patriots, believe it or not, are actually only 5-5 ATS in the Belichick/Brady era week 1 (9-1 SU), so they won’t be immune to this “curse.” Another thing I like to see, the Titans opened -7 and immediately almost all of the action went on New England, about 90%, and yet the line dropped. That’s a tell tale sign of a trap line. The odds makers really want you to bet New England. As a general rule, it’s a good idea not to do what the odds makers want you to. If the Titans had Kenny Britt (he’ll miss this game with suspension) and it wasn’t Jake Locker’s 1st career start, I’d make the Titans co-pick of the week. Instead, it’ll be a smaller, but still fairly large bet.
Tennessee Titans 27 New England Patriots 24 Upset Pick +200
Pick against spread: Tennessee Titans +6 (-105) 4 units
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