Washington Redskins (0-0) at New Orleans Saints (0-0)
Welcome to the NFL Robert Griffin. For your first test, you have to go to the Superdome and play Drew Brees and the Saints where they didn’t lose all of last season (9-0 SU and ATS!!!). The Saints have obviously been hurt this offseason by BountyGate and possibly, to a lesser extent, by Drew Brees’ extended contract negotiations, which caused him to miss valuable pre-Training Camp practice time and possibly hurt locker room morale. However, the BountyGate losses they suffered are not huge. Jonathan Vilma was one of the worst middle linebackers in the league last year and looked pretty washed up. Free agent additions David Hawthorne and Curtis Lofton will more than make up for his loss and will turn linebacker, a position of weakness for the Saints in 2011, into a strength. They also added Brodrick Bunkley, the league’s top run stuffing defensive tackle last season.
The bigger loss will be Will Smith at defensive end. On paper, this seems like a huge blow to an already bad Saints’ pass rush. Smith wasn’t great last season, with 7 sacks, 7 quarterback hits, and 34 quarterback pressures on 630 pass rush snaps, including playoffs, a respectable, but not great 9.2% pass rush rate, but this team was the league’s worst rated pass rushing team last season in terms of pass rush productivity (sacks + .75 hits + .75 pressures/total pass rush snaps). They may have had 33 sacks, not a terrible number, but they blitzed more than any team in the league to do even that.
However, the Saints may have a diamond in the rough waiting in the wings behind Smith. Junior Galette, a 2010 undrafted free agent, played very well as a situational pass rusher last season and will be the starter in Smith’s absence this season. On 339 pass rush snaps, he had 4 sacks, 11 quarterback hits, and 19 quarterback pressures, a 10.0% pass rush rate. New Saints’ defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is known for getting the most out of pass rushers, so he should have a positive effect on not just the career of Galette, but Cameron Jordan, the opposite starter, a 2011 1st round pick who struggled as a pass rusher as a rookie last season. Even with Smith missing 4 games with suspension, they should be a more efficient pass rushing team this season and they should be able to get some pressure against a Washington offensive line that was one of the worst in the league last year and didn’t look any better in the preseason.
The Saints’ biggest loss was Head Coach Sean Payton, but they still have Drew Brees and, for what’s it worth, the Saints 1st team offense didn’t seem to miss a beat in the preseason. If anyone can come out the other side of the offseason they just had and still compete, it’s the Saints. Drew Brees is like an assistant head coach and they’re not changing things up much so they should still be more than fine offensively. They’re an incredibly talented team, possibly even more so than last year, and would have probably been my Super Bowl pick had it not been for the off the field issues they had in the offseason. I think they’re a bit underrated right now. They’re just -7 here. For reference, the Falcons were -7 coming into New Orleans week 16 last year. They finished 10-6. The Lions, same record, were -10 in the playoffs in New Orleans.
The Redskins are also underrated right now, but I don’t think they deserve to be just +7. Robert Griffin doesn’t have a great offensive line, but he’s got plenty of offensive weapons in the receiving corps and Mike Shanahan teams have always been able to run the ball, no matter who is starting at running back. Griffin’s rushing ability will also help open things up for whichever back starts this game. Defensively, the secondary is a problem, but they have a much underrated front 7 with two great pass rushers in Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan, one of the best middle linebackers of all time in London Fletcher, a budding young linebacker in Perry Riley, and two solid defensive linemen in Barry Cofield and Stephen Bowen. They won 5 games last year despite awful quarterback play. They should be a solid .500 team this year. Griffin’s presence will make a huge difference, just like Cam Newton did with the Panthers last year (Griffin’s got the superior supporting cast).
However, it may take Griffin a little bit to become acclimated to the NFL. One of the things I love doing is betting against rookie quarterbacks week 1. They tend to, predictably, struggle in their first NFL action. Since 1994, rookie quarterbacks have completed 55% of their passes, averaged 6 yards YPA, and thrown twice as many picks as touchdowns during weeks 1-4. I get 5 chances to do that this week, as Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin, Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Weeden, and Russell Wilson will all get the week 1 start for their respective teams. Griffin didn’t face particularly tough defenses in the Big 12, nor did he have to run a very tough offense and, while I don’t have too many concerns about his long term success, he might struggle out of the gate, especially in New Orleans against a Saints team that might be awfully pissed off after the offseason. Besides, I’m not betting against the Saints in New Orleans.
Update: Player suspensions in the bounty scandal overturned. Even if the players returning don’t have a positive effect on the game for the Saints, it’s a huge morale boost for the team. I’m adding an extra unit.
New Orleans Saints 34 Washington Redskins 20
Pick against spread: New Orleans Saints -7 (-115) 3 units
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