Cleveland Browns (0-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (0-1)

Before the season started, I identified 5 teams I thought were overrated and 5 I thought were underrated. The idea was to bet these teams (or against these teams) until I was proven wrong or until the odds makers caught up. It served me well last week. Of the 7 games involving these 10 teams, I nailed 5, including my pick of the week. I unfortunately went 3-6 on my other 9 to finish at .500 for the week ATS, but it’s good to see that my overrated/underrated choices seem to have been pretty accurate. I’ll try to use those this week, unless I feel the odds makers caught up, with two exceptions (San Francisco and Buffalo, two I got wrong last week).

Here, I don’t really feel the odds makers caught up and there’s a good reason for that. Cincinnati got blown out last week, as I predicted they would, but they did it against Baltimore, so everyone seems to be giving them a bit of a pass. However, I have Baltimore as one of my overrated teams, so we have an overrated team in Cincinnati remaining overrated because people are overrating their week 1 strength of opponent. Baltimore seems to have an improved offense, but they lost several key contributors defensively and have several others aging and they have yet to prove to me that their struggles on the road and overall inconsistencies are gone.

Cincinnati, meanwhile, failed to beat a single playoff team last year, going 0-8 in such games and if Baltimore makes the playoffs this year, his record would be 0-9 through his first season and a game against playoff teams. Fortunately, Cleveland is almost definitely not a playoff team. The Bengals also have suffered several major injuries. Leon Hall, predictably, is not 100% back from a torn Achilles suffered about 10 months ago and was uncharacteristically torched in the Baltimore game. They also put two starters on the offensive line, Kyle Cook and Travelle Wharton, on IR. On top of that, top pass rusher Carlos Dunlap and two of their cornerbacks, Jason Allen and Dre Kirkpatrick, missed last week and could miss again this week.

Then there’s the issue of Andy Dalton’s arm strength. Jay Gruden did a great job of scheming around his physical limitations last year, but you can only do that for so long. He struggled down the stretch last season, particularly against tougher opponents, and continued that in the preseason and in the opener against Baltimore, where he completed 22 of 37 for 221 yards and a pick. Those numbers don’t even tell the whole story. Only 80 of those 221 yards were in the air; the rest were after the catch. He settled for short stuff all night, completing just 4 passes that went more than 10 yards through the air (4 of 11) and his adjusted QB rating of 66.2 was 26^th out of 32 starting quarterbacks in the NFL week 1.

This team could easily lose 10 or more games this season. This isn’t some new prediction. I made it before the season and I’m sticking with it. Given that, they don’t deserve to be favorites of more than 6 against any one, not even the Browns, who I think are the league’s worst team, especially now without Joe Haden, their top defensive players. Teams that finish with 6 wins or fewer cover at roughly a 30% rate as favorites of 6 or more. This is a very powerful trend if you can accurately predict how teams will finish.

On top of that, there are other situational trends in play, ones that don’t take any forecasting. The Bengals are coming off a huge loss on MNF, losing by 31 on MNF. Teams that do this are typically flat the following week. It makes sense. Not only are you on a short week, but you are coming off a deflating loss. Since 2002, teams are 14-23 ATS coming off losses of 21+ on MNF, 3-12 ATS if they are favored the next week, as Cincinnati is.

On top of that, this is what’s known as a sandwich game. After this, the Bengals travel to Washington, where they will almost certainly be underdogs. Teams that are favorites before and after being underdogs are 37-54 ATS since 2010. This makes sense. Teams can’t bring the same level of intensity every week in the NFL. It just doesn’t happen; that’s why upsets happen. Teams typically are flatter than normal coming off a tough game and going into a tough game. The Bengals may see this is an easy breather and a chance to get their confidence back, which is not the right way to approach any game in the NFL. Anyone can lose at any time.

Meanwhile, the Bengals tend to fall flat as favorites anyway, going 5-13 ATS in this situation since 2007. One trend that works in the Browns’ favor, teams are 48-30 ATS after a loss of 3 or fewer at home as underdogs since 2002. This makes some sense. It seems to give confidence to teams if they are able to hang close in a game where they were expected to get blown out at home, but it doesn’t have the same adjusting affect on the spread that an actual win would produce.

I also believe this is what’s called a trap line. Trap lines are when odds makers want the public to bet one way or another so they make a “too good to be true” line. Typically when odds makers want you to do something, it’s a good idea not to do it. The two signs of a trap line are a suspiciously low line and a line that drops even though the majority of the public is betting it. Right now, about 75% of the money is on Cincinnati, yet the line has dropped from -7.5 when it opened (already suspiciously low) to -7 with juice. They really want us to bet Cincinnati. The odds makers seem to agree that Cincinnati is overrated and they know no one is going to want to bet the Browns as mere touchdown underdogs. They’re not a bad group of guys to have agree with you. They’re not stupid. That’s why they make money every single year.

Even still, there is line value here. Cincinnati is still being overrated by the odds makers even with the “too good to be true line.” Cincinnati is not the type of team that deserves to be favored by more than a touchdown over anyone. I think at the end of the year, we’ll wonder why this wasn’t something like Cincinnati -4 (3 points for home field advantage). Besides, all the trends are in Cleveland’s favor. I would make this my pick of the week, but Cleveland is really terrible, so instead, this will just be a significant bet. Brandon Weeden probably won’t be quite as bad as he was last week now that he has one start under his belt. I’m also picking Cincinnati to win outright here at home, but this is going to be a close, ugly, and unwatchable game, unless you have money on it, which I recommend you do.

Public lean: Cincinnati (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Cleveland covers)

Cincinnati Bengals 16 Cleveland Browns 13

Pick against spread: Cleveland +7 (-115) 4 units

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