Dallas Cowboys (1-0) at Seattle Seahawks (0-1)

No team has a bigger home/road disparity over the past few years than the Seattle Seahawks. Since 2007, they’re 11-32 SU and 14-28 ATS on the road, but 24-18 SU and 27-14 ATS at home. That’s why it was predictable that they would lose to an inferior Cardinals team on the road last week; that’s why it’s now predictable that they’ll bounce back at home against a superior Cowboys team.

Speaking of that superior Cowboys team, they got a huge win last week over the New York Giants. Since the NFL started having teams play on Thursday Night to start the season (this year it was Wednesday night because of some stupid political thing), teams that win that game are 2-6 ATS the following week. The Packers almost lost to the Panthers the following week last year and they started 13-0.

Now, all 8 of the teams that won the opener have been Super Bowl champs, but it doesn’t seem to have anything to do with whether or not you’re defending Super Bowl champs. Teams that lose that game are also 2-6 ATS the following week. It’s an emotional game for both sides, for the defending Super Bowl champ because they get a big celebration and get their rings and for the opponent because they want to knock off the champs, especially after watching them celebrate and get their rings.

Besides, teams are 16-27 ATS since 2002 after knocking off the defending Super Bowl champ, regardless of week. Teams typically give everything they have when they play the Super Bowl champs and after getting an emotional win, it becomes very tough for them to sustain that energy the following week, so they’re typically flat and also typically slightly overrated coming off a huge win.

This should be true for the Cowboys. They gave the Giants everything they had last week, in an effort to not just knock off the Super Bowl champs, but to also try to establish dominance over a divisional foe who had recently had their number and just last season ended their season. It’s going to be very tough for them to sustain that kind of energy against the “lowly” Seahawks, who just lost to the Cardinals.

Besides, even though they won last week, it wasn’t quite as impressive as people are making it seem. The Giants may have been defending Super Bowl champs, but they were also the worst regular season team, in terms of win and point differential, to ever win the Super Bowl and the Cowboys only won because Tony Romo played one of the best games of his career and would not let the Cowboys destroy themselves with penalties. This week, that probably won’t happen and if they continue to commit tons of penalties, they could easily lose.

Now on to the “lowly” Seahawks. Their road/home disparity makes them a little underrated here. Their loss last week to an inferior squad was predictable, but they still have a strong defense and they still can run the ball and win if they don’t turn the ball over much, especially at home. They’re not some easy opponent that’s just going to roll over in Seattle (since 2007, they’re 12-4 ATS as home dogs of 3+). Last week, they were road favorites, normally the sign of a strong team and this week they’re home dogs, normally the sign of a week team. That seems like an overreaction based on one week.

A trend that sums this situation up nicely is this one: teams that lose as road favorites are 45-34 ATS since 1989 as home dogs the following week. This makes sense. Last week, they were good enough to be road favorites and now after just one week they’re bad enough to be home dogs? That’s an overreaction and the public is definitely overreacting to one week as almost all of the action is on the Cowboys in this one. I’m not going to overreact to one week. I’m going to pick the Seahawks to predictably bounce back at home after predictably flopping on the road against a Cowboys team that is publicly overrated and will overlook them following a huge, emotional victory.

Public lean: Dallas (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Seattle covers)

Seattle Seahawks 24 Dallas Cowboys 20 Upset Pick +155

Pick against spread: Seattle +3 (+115) 4 units

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