Tennessee Titans (0-1) at San Diego Chargers (1-0)
Never bet on the Chargers early in the season. Prior to last year, when the Chargers went 4-1 early against a cupcake schedule, the Chargers were 14-12 from weeks 1-6 under Philip Rivers and 41-11 (41-11!!!) from weeks 6-17. Including last year, they’re actually 3-7 ATS as favorites during the first 4 weeks of the season in the Philip Rivers era. Well, almost never. I bet on the Chargers last week because they were playing what I thought was an overrated Raiders team and I turned out to be right with that pick.
Still, the Chargers didn’t look good. If it wasn’t for an injury to the Raiders’ long snapper, they could have lost to a Raider team that I think is one of the worst in the league. That win reminded me of their 4-1 start last season. The Chargers were able to beat up on a cupcake schedule last year early, beating Minnesota by 7, Kansas City by 3, Miami by 10, and Denver (prebow) by 5. However, once they started playing real teams, things got a lot harder for them and they actually went on a 6 game losing streak.
The Titans are a real team. I picked them to make the playoffs before the season and I’m not changing that prediction. They had the league’s 8th ranked scoring defense last year, despite having 6 of 11 starters in their 3rd year or younger. That continued growth and maturity, as well as their cornerback depth, and the addition of Kamerion Wimbley and potential breakout of Derrick Morgan as much needed pass rushers would cancel out the loss of Cortland Finnegan.
Offensively, I felt they should continue to have one of the best passing blocking offensive lines, led by bookend tackles Michael Roos and David Stewart and I felt their run blocking would be better with Steve Hutchinson replacing Jake Scott at guard. Meanwhile, I felt Chris Johnson would be back to his old self. Chris Johnson averaged 3.0 YPC in his first 8 games last season after missing most of the offseason with a new coaching staff coming in and also getting out of shape. However, he averaged 4.8 YPC the rest of the way and put in a ton of work this offseason to get back into tip top shape, attending every single one of the Titans’ offseason activities, even the optional ones (OTAs) which he would normally skip in order to train at home in Orlando.
They also have Kenny Britt returning from injury. Britt missed 13 ½ games with injury last year, but he’s still only 24 (later this month) and the 2009 1st round pick has 56 catches for 1146 yards and 12 touchdowns in his last 13 full games. In 2010, when Britt was healthy (11 games) and Chris Johnson was still his old self, the Titans averaged 27.1 points per game in those 11 games. That number is a little skewed because the Titans had an unrealistically low yards per point ratio, but the point is, when they have all their offensive weapons, they can put points on the board.
Since then, Nate Washington and Jared Cook have broken out in Britt’s absence and the latter could be even better this year after catching 21 passes for 335 yards and a touchdown in his final 3 years last year. They also add 1st round pick Kendall Wright as a 3rd receiver. On top of that, they’ve made an obvious upgrade at quarterback going from Kerry Collins and Vince Young to Matt Hasselbeck and now to Jake Locker, who led them to 1.83 points per drive last year, as opposed to 1.63 points per drive for Hasselbeck (albiet in limited action). Basically, I felt the same way about the Titans that I did at that point last year about the Lions, who proved me right.
And you know what, none of that has really changed. The Titans just ran into the wrong team at the wrong time playing the Patriots last week. The Patriots might be the best team in the league. Jake Locker played well before leaving with injury and he should be back for this one, with Kenny Britt also returning to give them an added boost in the receiving corps. Locker should have another good game now that he has one start under his belt.
Defensively, there’s no shame in giving up 30+ points to the Patriots. Everyone does it pretty much. It doesn’t mean they have a bad defense. They should have a bounce back week this week against the Chargers. The Chargers still have Philip Rivers, but they’re incredibly banged up offensively. They’ll be probably be without top running back Ryan Matthews again, leaving Ronnie Brown and Curtis Brinkley to split carries. Neither of them did anything against the Raiders last week.
They’re also without Vincent Brown, their best receiver in Training Camp before his injury, leaving Philip Rivers with the overpaid Robert Meachem, who has a career high 45 catches despite playing 4 years with Drew Brees, and Malcom Floyd, an inconsistent receiver in his age 31 season who has caught 3 or fewer passes in 14 of his last 23 games, missing 9 games over the past 2 years. Antonio Gates will be his favorite target, unless the 32 year old, who has also missed 9 games over the past 2 years, gets hurt.
Finally, they’ll be without left tackle Jared Gaither once again, leaving undrafted rookie Mike Harris to start on the blind side again on a line already with major weaknesses at left guard and right tackle. Philip Rivers is an elite quarterback, but this might just be too much for him to handle. After all, despite being set up with great field position by 3 Raider special teams miscues, the Chargers managed just 22 points and got in the end zone just once against a Raider defense that ranked 29th in scoring last year and lost several key players this offseason. The Titans defense should be able to keep them in check.
The one thing I’m really worried about is Chris Johnson, especially since the Chargers’ run defense just did a great job on Darren McFadden last week. However, I’m not quite ready to give up on him and a lot of his problems are on the offensive line. The Titans replaced right guard LeRoy Harris with Jake Matthews late in the game and he played a little bit better. Matthews will continue to start this week, so maybe that will help. Playing anyone other than the Patriots’ great run defense will also help, no matter how good a job the Chargers did on McFadden last week.
I also believe this is what’s called a trap line. Trap lines are when odds makers want the public to bet one way or another so they make a “too good to be true” line. Typically when odds makers want you to do something, it’s a good idea not to do it. The two signs of a trap line are a suspiciously low line and a line that drops even though the majority of the public is betting it. Right now, about 85% of the money is on San Diego, yet the line has dropped from -7 when it opened (already suspiciously low) to -6 with juice. They really want us to bet San Diego. The odds makers seem to agree that Tennessee is overrated and San Diego is still the same old September Chargers. They’re not a bad group of guys to have agree with you. They’re not stupid. That’s why they make money every single year.
This is my pick of the week. The Titans looked bad last week because of who they played, but they’re still a solid team. The Chargers meanwhile, should never be bet on as favorites early in the season, especially not against a solid team. The Titans defense should continue to make the Chargers’ offense struggle, while Jake Locker and company should be able to move the ball against a Chargers defense that ranked 22nd in scoring last year and is overrated now because they held an overrated Raiders’ offense to 14 points when they were missing arguably their top receiver Denarius Moore. Covering Locker to Kenny Britt and the rest of these weapons will be a lot harder than covering Carson Palmer to Darrius Heyward-Bey and Rod Streater.
Public lean: San Diego (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Tennessee covers)
Tennessee Titans 27 San Diego 23 Upset Pick +230
Pick against spread: Tennessee +6 (-110) 5 units
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