Kansas City Chiefs (0-1) at Buffalo Bills (0-1)

I had the Bills as one of my underrated teams going into the season, thinking that they’d be that team this year that makes the playoffs on the combination of a strong running game, strong defense, decent quarterback play, and an easy schedule. Well, it turns out that only works if your quarterback isn’t horrific and your defense doesn’t give up after going on 21-0 early as the opposing team’s offense scores twice with a short field off turnovers and then returns a kickoff for a touchdown.

At least I got the running game part right. Fred Jackson is out for this one, so the Bills won’t have their one-two punch, but CJ Spiller has proven he can be the one-two punch all by himself. In 6 starts last year, he rushed for 449 yards and 3 scores on 90 carries, adding in another 26 catches for 205 yards and 2 scores through the air. Last week, he managed 169 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries against a normally good Jets’ run defense and added 2 catches for 25 yards. I know the Jets were without Sione Pouha, but it was still a very impressive game for him. Remember, he was the 9^th overall pick in 2010, so he should be more than capable of carrying the load in Jackson’s absence.

The passing game and the defense weren’t good in the opener, but I think the latter will be better in this one. The Bills may have surrendered 48 points, but 14 of those were on a pick six and a punt return for a touchdown. Of the remaining 34, 14 were allowed early in the game on a short field and after those two scores and the punt return touchdown, the Bills’ defense just gave up.

That they gave up is a concern, but if they can have better luck early in this one, the defense won’t do that and they have a lot of talent, especially on the defensive line, so they should have a good game. Last week, because of their offense’s ineptude, they were on the field the 12^th most of any team in the league in terms of time of possession and only allowed the 11^th most yards. That’s not as horrific of a defensive performance as the 48 points would suggest.

The passing game is a major concern. All Fitzpatrick has to do, given their good running game and defense, is not make mistakes, but he threw 3 turnovers last week. He had that nice start to last season, but in his last 10 games, he’s completed 216 of 372 (58.1%) for 2288 yards (6.2 YPA), 13 touchdowns, and 19 interceptions. He didn’t have a good preseason either and he can’t blame a rib injury this time. I don’t know if he just doesn’t care as much now that he’s gotten paid or if his strong start to last season was a fluke or if opposing defensive coordinators have just caught on to Chan Gailey’s scheme or if it’s all 3, but Fitzpatrick is awful and probably will need to be replaced this offseason.

The Chiefs are similarly built. They can run the ball with Jamaal Charles and Peyton Hillis and they have a good defense. I know they surrendered 40 to the Falcons last week, but they were missing their top cornerback and their top pass rusher and the Falcons might have a top-5 offense this year. Tamba Hali and Brandon Flowers will be back this week and the Bills are far from a top-5 offense, so they should be able to have a good defensive game. This will allow them to execute the conservative offense they weren’t really able to in the opener because of their defensive play. This will make life easy for Matt Cassel, who turned the ball over 3 times last week because he was playing from behind for most of the game.

Theoretically, these teams are built the same way. Both can run the football and play good defense and make life easy for their quarterbacks, especially against easier opponents and both teams do have easier opponents this week. However, Cassel has proven that when things are made easy for him, he can avoid turnovers. Fitzpatrick seems to just like to force things even when he doesn’t have to.

Kansas City will probably win the turnover battle and the game here in Buffalo, but it’s not a huge bet because I hate betting on a team winning the turnover battle. Turnovers are just so tough to predict not just on a yearly basis, but on the weekly basis in the NFL and that’s really the one edge Kansas City should have this week over Buffalo. If they can’t win the turnover battle, Buffalo should win this one at home by a small margin. One note, this line is listed at +3 (+100) at some places and +3.5 (-120) at some places. If you can pay for the extra half point, do it. If Buffalo wins, it’ll probably be only by a field goal.

Public lean: Kansas City (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Buffalo covers)

Kansas City Chiefs 16 Buffalo Bills 13 Upset Pick +155

Pick against spread: Kansas City +3 (+100) 2 units

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