Green Bay Packers (1-1) at Seattle Seahawks (1-1)
I love exploiting home/road differentials and, for that reason, Seahawks games are always my favorite to bet. Last week, this is what I said about the subject, “No team has a bigger home/road disparity over the past few years than the Seattle Seahawks. Since 2007, they’re 11-32 SU and 14-28 ATS on the road, but 24-18 SU and 27-14 ATS at home. That’s why it was predictable that they would lose to an inferior Cardinals team on the road last week; that’s why it’s now predictable that they’ll bounce back at home against a superior Cowboys team.” And what did they do? Well, they bounced back at home against a superior Cowboys team, improving to 28-14 ATS at home since 2007 and winning me my 2nd biggest play of the week
Because nothing that’s happened with this team so far has surprised me (the Cowboys were overrated and coming off an emotional opening night game, after which teams are 4-13-1 ATS in the last 9 years), I haven’t moved this team in my Power Rankings at all. That’s gotten a lot of comments from vocal Seahawks fans, who are as loud on the internet as they are at Century Link field (don’t worry, it’s a compliment). I had the Seahawks lower than most people in my Power Rankings to start the season and I haven’t moved them.
They can run the football and they play solid defense and they have one of the best home field advantages in the league, but they’re also terrible on the road and Russell Wilson is more likely to fail than succeed as a starter. He was a mere 3rd rounder and passed up on by every team in the league once and by most twice (including the Seahawks).
The NFL Draft is a crap shoot, but if there’s one thing the NFL as a whole is good at doing, it’s making sure that starting quarterbacks don’t fall out of the 1st round. Only 9 of the 32 starting quarterbacks in the NFL today went outside the 1st round and only one rookie quarterback who didn’t go in the 1st round has started week 1 since 1994 and gone on to throw more touchdowns than interceptions.
I like Pete Carroll and maybe he and John Schneider found a diamond in the rough, but given the history of non-1st round pick quarterbacks in the NFL, Wilson will have to prove me wrong before I start believing in him. So far, he hasn’t really done that, completing 61.1% of his passes for an average of 5.6 YPA and 2 touchdowns to 1 interception. For reference, Tarvaris Jackson completed 60.2% of his passes for 6.9 YPA and 14 touchdowns to 13 interceptions last year. The quarterback position is still what’s keeping this from being a legitimate playoff team, especially out of what appears to be an improved NFC West. It also doesn’t help that neither the offensive line or receiving corps are very good.
Now, it is true that Wilson hasn’t really had to do much in their first 2 games, but this week he will have to as the Packers come to town. The Packers rebounded from a pitiful defensive showing week 1 to destroy Chicago last week and now it’s looking like week 1 was the fluke for them. Even at home on Monday Night with a crazy crowd on their side, the Seahawks will have their work cut out for them.
One thing the Seahawks’ unsurprising victory over the Cowboys last week did was it completely moved this line. This line was originally -6 in favor of Green Bay and now it’s -3. The Seahawks are now really overrated. I’m not saying going into Seattle and winning is easy, but all the Packers really need to do here is win straight up because we have field goal protection. Nobody has been better at doing that over the last 2 years or so as, including playoffs, the Packers are 22-3 in their last 25 games, 17-8 ATS. I really like them to win here as small favorites, especially with 11 days rest coming off Thursday Night football. Teams are 42-28 ATS since 2008 coming off Thursday Night football (excluding teams coming off week 1 Thursday Night games). There isn’t any trend that says that teams are better on Monday Night (4-5 ATS), but I don’t think the extra day of rest will hurt.
Public lean: Green Bay (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Seattle covers)
Pick change:
I’ve never done this before, but I’m changing this right before game time for several reasons.
1. Home dogs are dominating this year. They are 12-6 and an unbelievable 11-7 straight up. They aren’t just covering at a high rate. They’re pulling the upset at a rate higher than 61..1% clip. Home teams, in general, are 30-17 straight up this year. That’s a winning percentage of 63.8%. Over the last 22 seasons, home teams generally win at a rate of 58.1%. I know it’s early, but there is an explanation for this. It’s the replacement refs. It’s very possible they’re just much more easily swayed by crowds. Home teams generally have an advantage for this reason, but it’s possible it’s just more pronounced this year with inferior refs. Seattle is normally one of the loudest stadiums in the NFL and it’s only going to be louder on Monday Night Football. I don’t trust the refs to make the right calls and if they’re going to be getting them wrong, it’s probably going to be in Seattle’s favor tonight.
2. The public is getting murdered this year. On bets with more than 80% of the action on one side, the public is 4-11 this year. This game is one of those cases with Green Bay having more than 80% of the action. Still, the line is dropping from -4 to -3.5 or -3 at some places. I don’t want to be siding with the public, given how they’ve fared this year, when there’s opposite line movement. The odds makers might know something the general public doesn’t and it’s possible that reason 1 is part of it.
3. New England lost. This will make sense in a bit. Every year, one team goes from having a 1st round bye to out of the playoffs. Last year, the 4 team that had a 1st round bye were New England, Baltimore, San Francisco, and Green Bay. The AFC is so weak this year that I can’t see either Baltimore or New England missing the playoffs unless they were legitimately not good enough and both them of looked it last night. The Ravens actually have a better chance of missing the playoffs because they play in a division with Pittsburgh and Cincinnati, while New England just has Miami, Buffalo, and the Revis-less Jets to deal with, but Baltimore also just won head-to-head.
The NFC, however, is a much stronger conference. Several deserving teams are going to miss the playoffs. There isn’t a single awful team in the conference. Their only 0-3 team is the Saints and you still can’t feel comfortable counting them out. The 6 or worst teams in the NFL, Cleveland, Jacksonville, Oakland, Miami, Kansas City, Indianapolis, they’re all in the AFC. Who does the NFC have that’s that bad? Minnesota and Arizona were supposed to be that bad. They’re 5-1. Carolina? St. Louis? Tampa Bay? Maybe? The AFC and NFC are 4-8 when they play each other this year.
For that reason, I have a feeling that the team that goes from 1st round bye to out of the playoffs is in the NFC. San Francisco is a candidate because they just fell flat against the Vikings, but they also beat the Packers head to head in Lambeau and they have, what I feel, is the easier division. Green Bay has had one good defensive performance and one bad one and the good one game on a short week against a discombobulated Bears team. If what we saw week 1 from their defense is really their defense (which makes sense given their reliance on takeaways last year), they can definitely lose this game and with a tough schedule, it wouldn’t be outrageous that they could miss the playoffs. As long as I can get field goal protection, I’m taking the points.
Seattle Seahawks 24 Green Bay Packers 23 Upset Pick +155
Pick against spread: Seattle +3.5 (-110) 3 units
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