New York Jets (1-1) at Miami Dolphins (1-1)
Yeah, how’s that Jets’ offense doing now? After scoring 48 in the opener in a heavily defense and special teams aided effort, the Jets scored just 10 points last week and Mark Sanchez, who was 19 of 27 for 266 yards, 3 touchdowns, and a pick in the opener, completed just 10 of 27 for 138 yards and a touchdown against a Steeler defense missing Troy Polamalu and James Harrison. In actuality, Sanchez is probably not as bad as he looked last week, but he’s not as good as he looked week 1 either.
This week, his matchup is once again going to be hard. The Dolphins have a nice defense, as they did last year, when they ranked 6th in scoring defense. The thing they do best in run the stuff, which they rank 1st in the league at. And they haven’t been facing marginally talented backs. First they faced Houston’s dynamic duo of Arian Foster and Ben Tate and last week they shut down Darren McFadden. Shonn Greene is significantly less talented than them, so Sanchez is going to be in a lot of 2nd and 3rd and longs in this one.
The biggest difference for the Dolphins from week 1 to week 2 was the offense. In Week 1, the defense played well, but their offense’s ineptitude and high amount of turnovers made it just too hard for their defense. Last week, Ryan Tannehill played much better, they minimized the turnovers, moved the chains, scored points and made life a lot easier for their talented defense. If they can do that, they might surprise a few people.
However, that’s easier said than done. Tannehill’s performance was aided by Reggie Bush’s awesome effort on the ground as he rushed for 172 yards and 2 touchdowns. The Jets’ typically have a good run defense, but they were run on with ease by CJ Spiller in the opener. However, after what Spiller did to Kansas City last week, that’s not looking so bad anymore and the Jets were much better against the run last week with stud nose tackle Sione Pouha in the lineup. Bush probably won’t have as good of a game and besides, Tannehill is a rookie, so it’s hard to trust him just yet.
In the opener, the Jets were without Pouha, but last week, they were without Darrelle Revis. They’ll get him back. Tannehill got to deal with the Raiders cornerback trio of Patrick Lee, Shawntae Spencer, and Joselio Hanson last week. Facing a tougher secondary, he should find life very hard once again, especially with a mediocre receiving corps. The good news is that the Jets rank 31st in pass rush efficiency (the Raiders are 32nd), so Tannehill should have time in the pocket like he did last week (pressured on 9 of 33 drop backs), even if they can’t establish the same running game as they did last week.
This figures to be a low scoring defensive battle overall. This line moved about 2 points from last week, so there’s a bit of an overreaction to Miami’s blowout win over the Raiders, but I still think the Dolphins are a little underrated. Their points per play differential is 0.6 points better than the Jets, who rank 26th in that statistic, which is a significant difference. Unless their offense puts up a total stinker again like they did week 1, their defense should be able make life tough for Mark Sanchez.
I know it’s risky to bet on Tannehill to be serviceable, but it is week 3 and rookie quarterbacks who start week 1 are 8-1 SU and 8-1 ATS since 2008 week 3. Besides, the Jets could find themselves caught in a breather game this week. Favorites before being dogs after losing as dogs are 49-77 ATS since 2008. The Jets host San Francisco next week. It’s only a small bet because of Tannehill and because there’s a chance that the Jets could do to the Dolphins exactly what they did to the Bills week 1, dominate them defensively, dominate the field position battle, get easy scores, and then run up the score on a defense that is tired and quits. It’s a tough game plan to rely on, but it’s a possibility. One note, pay extra for field goal protection (+3), if you can.
Public lean: NY Jets (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Miami covers)
Miami Dolphins 17 New York Jets 16 Upset Pick +115
Pick against spread: Miami +3 (-125) 2 units
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