Carolina Panthers (1-2) at Atlanta Falcons (3-0)

The Carolina Panthers looked terrible on national television last week, turning the ball over 5 times en route to a 36-7 home loss to the Giants. The Falcons, meanwhile, looked great last week, forcing 4 turnovers, while committing only one of their own, en route to a 27-3 road win in San Diego. The Falcons are 3-0 with wins over Denver and San Diego, while Carolina is 1-2 with their only win coming against a 0-3 New Orleans team. Atlanta has the league’s best turnover differential at +10, while Carolina has the league’s worst at -6. Atlanta is also awesome at home. They’ll dominate the turnover battle and win this ease right?

Well, that seems to be what the public thinks as the public is pounding the Falcons.  If this year is any indication, the public perception is normally wrong. That’s why the odds makers are rich. On games with more than 80% of the action on one side, the public is just 4-12 this year. This game fits that description. However, there are several reasons why I think Carolina has a good chance to cover.

For one, they actually rank 3rd in the league in yards per play differential, while Atlanta ranks 10th. Carolina’s point per play differential is .8 yards better than Atlanta’s and an old handicapping formula says to divide to that by .15 and add 3 either way for home field advantage to determine the “real line.” Using that, Carolina should actually be FAVORED by 2.5 points. That obviously works a little bit better a few more weeks into the season, but it’s definitely worth noting.

So why is there such a big difference between the two teams’ records and their yards per play differential? Well, turnover differential is obviously a huge part of it, but I find yards to be a much more consistent stat. Teams that lose the turnover differential battle by 5, like the Panthers did last week, have a turnover differential of +0.0 in their following game since 2002. Meanwhile, teams that win the turnover differential battle by 3 win the turnover battle by an average of +0.1 in their following game since 2002.

Unlike people think, the Falcons won’t necessarily dominate the turnover battle and dominate this game. History suggests that each team will have an equal amount of turnovers and that will make whichever team can outgain the other the team that’s most likely to win. I know it’s been only 3 games, but if this season is any indication, that team is Carolina.

Three more good trends work in Carolina’s favor. Carolina is coming off a Thursday Night game, so they’ll be well rested. Teams in this situation are 109-89 ATS on Sundays. The Panthers are also coming off a blowout loss, which, however counterintuitive, is a positive trend for them this week. Teams coming off embarrassing losses (28 points or more) are 99-69 ATS since 2002. Those teams tend to be undervalued by the odds makers after because of overreaction to one week. Carolina is also dogs before and after being favorites coming off a loss, a situation teams are 46-21 ATS in since 2002. Teams tend to be extra focused for a tough opponent coming off an upset loss, knowing that there’s an easy game on the horizon.

The Panthers aren’t really undervalued here because there hasn’t been any line movement from last week to this week, despite what happened with these two teams last week, but it’s very possible that the odds makers are just doing that to keep this a “too good to be true” line and setting the public up to fail, as they do so often. This game has all the looks of a game where the odds makers murder the public again. I’m not falling for it.

Carolina is a much better team than they’ve looked this season, especially than they looked last week, while Atlanta has been very reliant on turnovers this year. Atlanta could also be flat this week against an inferior team after finally having been anointed as the top team in the NFC. The only reason this isn’t a very large play is because of how good Atlanta is at home with Matt Ryan (26-5 SU, 21-9 ATS), but they’re just 6-4 ATS in the division and we have some room with this big line and touchdown protection, so this is still a fairly large play and my co-pick of the week.

Public lean: Atlanta (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Carolina covers)

Sharps lean (sharps is defined as anyone with a 66.7% winning percentage or higher in Las Vegas Hilton): CAR 14 ATL 7

Update: My 3 co-picks of the week all coincide with the 3 strongest sharps leans of the week. Feeling good.

Atlanta Falcons 27 Carolina Panthers 24

Pick against spread: Carolina +7 (-110) 4 units

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