Cincinnati Bengals (2-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2)

Andy Dalton has done a great job of beating up on bad defenses in the last couple of weeks, completing 43 of 58 for 646 yards, 6 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions against Washington and Cleveland. He did that last year as well as he was 9-0 against non-playoff teams, but assuming Washington and Cleveland miss the playoffs and Baltimore makes it, he has yet to beat a single playoff team in his career (0-9). It should be a concern for the Bengals.

However, it shouldn’t be much of a concern this week because Jacksonville isn’t a playoff team either. Their defense isn’t very good and while it was better last week with their secondary healthier, they are still missing Daryl Smith, arguably their best defensive player. The other candidate for their best defensive player is Jeremy Mincey, at least he’s supposed to be. He’s managed just 7 total quarterback pressures on 112 pass rush snaps and has yet to get a sack. He’s a one year wonder because he came out of nowhere last year, so it’s a concern. Andy Dalton and company should have no problem moving the ball against them.

The other concern for the Bengals is their defense. They’ve been torched by every quarterback they’ve faced, even Brandon Weeden, and they rank tied for 30^th allowing 34.0 points per game. They also rank 30^th in yards per play allowed. While the Jaguars are getting healthier defensively, the Bengals aren’t really. They’ve gotten top pass rusher Carlos Dunlap back and cornerback Jason Allen returned last week too, but he reinjured himself and is unlikely to play in this one.

They’ve also lost starting linebacker Thomas Howard for the season, they’re still without 1^st round pick Dre Kirkpatrick, and #1 cornerback Leon Hall is unlikely to play. Hall didn’t play last week either. He’s dealing with leg problems on the same side that he tore his Achilles just 10 months ago. It’s definitely possible he came back too soon. Without Allen, Hall, and Kirkpatrick, the Bengals will rely on a trio of Nate Clements, Terence Newman, and Adam Jones at cornerback, which would have been fine if this was 2006, but it’s not. They don’t have good safeties either so Blaine Gabbert should be able to move the ball on this 28^th ranked pass defense.

The one positive defensively for the Bengals last week was their pass rush. Carlos Dunlap returned and he and Michael Johnson combined for 14 total pressures, including 4 sacks. Dunlap is a great pass rusher, but that game by Johnson was inconsistent with what he normally does so it’s very likely that will be by far the best game of his season. It definitely helped that they were facing Washington’s offensive line, which struggles to begin with and then lost stud left tackle Trent Williams early in the game. The Jaguars’ offensive line ranks dead last in pass block efficiency, but they return 2 starters, left guard Eben Britton and right tackle Cameron Bradfield, from injury in this one, which should help. If Gabbert can get time, he should be able to move the ball on this pathetic secondary. He’ll also be aided by what should be a strong performance from Maurice Jones-Drew because the Bengals rank dead last against the run.

If you’re reading the above analysis and thinking, these two teams aren’t that unevenly matched, you’re definitely on to something. The difference between Cincinnati’s and Jacksonville’s yards per play differential is .6. An old gambling formula tells you to divide that by .15 and add 3 points either way to get the “real” line. That suggests that this line should be -1 in favor of the Bengals, instead of -2.5, and that’s not even taking into account the fact that these two teams are going in opposite directions injury wise, so there’s a little bit of line value with the host here.

This was a tough one. On one hand, Andy Dalton has never lost to a non-playoff team in his career going 11-0 if you assume Washington and Cleveland miss the playoffs. Jacksonville is in that bunch. On the other hand, their defense is a mess and they’ve won their last 2 games by just 7 points apiece, including a home contest against the lowly Browns. There’s some line value with the host and the public, by the way, is pounding the Bengals. The public is 4-12 on heavy leans this year and Cincinnati +2.5 here is one of the heaviest leans I’ve seen all year. It has all the making of a trap line.

The general public is sitting at home thinking, “Cincinnati +2.5? All they need to do is beat the Jaguars by 3? Free money.” When in reality, Cincinnati’s defense is so bad that they can lose to anyone at any time, especially on the road. Home dogs are also 13-6 ATS this year and 12-7 SU, though that might have had something to do with the replacement refs. If we had replacement refs in this one, it would be a significant bet, but instead, it’s a smaller bet just to fade the public on a heavy lean. It’s also worth noting the Bengals are just 5-13 ATS as favorites since 2007.

Public lean: Cincinnati (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Jacksonville covers)

Sharps lean (sharps is defined as anyone with a 66.7% winning percentage or higher in Las Vegas Hilton): CIN 8 JAC 11

Update: Nate Clements is also expected out for the Bengals leaving them with Terence Newman, Adam Jones, and recently called up from the practice squad Chris Lewis-Harris. Also, I’m glad to see the sharps like Jacksonville as well. I’m not adding any more units because Jacksonville sucks, but I’m feeling more confident now.

Jacksonville Jaguars 23 Cincinnati Bengals 20 Upset Pick +115

Pick against spread: Jacksonville +2.5 (-110) 2 units

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