New York Giants (2-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (2-1)

Wow, the public has really soured on Philadelphia. A week ago they were heavily bet as road favorites and now one week later, the public is pounding the Giants in this one with the Eagles being just 1 point favorites at home. Dogs after losing as road favorites are 23-11 ATS since 2008. I know the Eagles aren’t technically dogs, but being 1 point home favorites and having the public betting heavily against you is about as close to being dogs as you can be. By the way, when you add in teams that were 1 point favorites to that aforementioned stat, it’s 24-12, so not much difference. Besides, the public is getting killed this year, especially on bets like this, as the public is 4-12 on heavy leans, which is what this is in favor of the Giants. I like to fade heavy leans as much as I can.

The Eagles have gotten killed with turnovers in their first 3 games, with a league worst -6 turnover ratio. However, that tends to even out on a week to week basis. Going back to 2002, looking at teams with every turnover differential from -5 to +5 in a single game, they all average a turnover differential of about +0 in their next game. This is still one of the most talented teams in the league and they rank 4th in the league in yards per play differential, a much more consistent stat. I expect them to eventually get their act together and finish as one of the best teams in the league.

Speaking of yards per play differential, Philadelphia’s yards per play differential is 1 yard better than New York’s and an old handicapping formula says to divide to that by .15 and add 3 either way for home field advantage to determine the “real line.” That suggests that Philadelphia should actually be favored by 9.5 points. It’s more accurate to use that a few more weeks into the season, but it’s worth noting. The Eagles’ only glaring flaw so far has been ball security, but the Giants have an equally glaring flaw and it’s their dead last ranked pass defense. Pass defense is not as inconsistent on a week to week basis as turnovers are, so the Eagles should be able to take advantage, especially now that they’re healthy in the receiving corps with Jeremy Maclin returning.

Besides, this is the type of atmosphere the Eagles thrive in. As dogs or favorites of 1, the Eagles are 49-30 ATS since 1999, which was when Andy Reid took over. Coming off a loss as a favorite, they’re 23-17 ATS. When you combine those two, they’re 7-3 ATS coming off a loss as a favorite as a dog or favorite of 1. The Giants are in a few situations they normally thrive in as well. They are 33-15 ATS on the road since 2007 and Giants are 41-27 ATS (49-19 SU) in weeks 1-9 since 2004 and they’re coming off 10 days rest. Teams are 109-89 ATS on Sunday off of Thursday Night football. However, they’re also just 1-5 off a win of 28 or more in the Coughlin era and the Eagles have owned this rivalry of late, winning in 7 of their last 8 matchups.

This really feels like the type of game the Eagles are going to win. It’s one of those things that tough to explain in numbers (though I definitely tried), but when you watch enough football you develop a 6^th sense for this kind of thing. Everyone is doubting the Eagles, who, the important numbers say are the more talented, while the Giants are in a situation where they can’t play the “nobody believes in us card,” which they might do better than anyone in football. They also zig when you expect them to zag and zag when you expect them to zig and right now, everyone expects them to win. There are things working in both sides’ favor, but it’s still a significant play on the home team.

Public lean: NY Giants (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Philadelphia covers)

Sharps lean (sharps is defined as anyone with a 66.7% winning percentage or higher in Las Vegas Hilton): PHI 13 NYG 8

Philadelphia Eagles 31 New York Giants 24

Pick against spread: Philadelphia -1 (-115) 3 units

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