Month: September 2012

Colts rule Dwight Freeney out, Austin Collie doubtful

stevenlourie Colts, News

Dwight Freeney left last week’s game against the Bears with an ankle injury and even though Head Coach Chuck Pagano said earlier this week that they expected him back “sooner as opposed to later,” he is currently listed as out for this week’s game against the Vikings and Bob Kravitz of the Indianapolis Star says that it will probably be a “couple of weeks” according to what he’s “hearing.” In his absence, 2010 1st round pick Jerry Hughes had a pair of quarterback hurries on 22 pass rush snaps. He’ll get the start again this week.

Meanwhile, Austin Collie is unlikely to go, even though there was a lot of optimism with his situation earlier in the week. Collie reportedly felt great before last week’s game, but they held him out as a precaution. He practiced fully on Wednesday, but it sounds like he had a setback on Thursday or something. Still, even after Thursday, offensive coordinator Bruce Arians made it sound like he’d be ready to go, saying “He could line up anywhere. He has the position flexibility to do anything. He would start out wide and go from there.” However, they eventually listed him as doubtful.

Between this and Freeney’s situation, it’s becoming increasingly tough to trust the Colts’ new coaching staff’s word on injuries. The official injury report seems to be the only thing that’s reliable. In Collie’s absence, Donnie Avery will start again, while Kris Adams will once again line up in the slot. Avery caught 3 passes for 37 yards and a touchdown in the opener, while Adams caught 2 passes for 26 yards. Don’t trust any Colts receiver in fantasy aside from Wayne until Collie returns. For now, assume Collie is out week 3 and indefinitely until you hear otherwise.

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Cowboys rule Jay Ratliff, Phil Costa out

stevenlourie Cowboys, News

When the Cowboys take on the Seahawks this week, they will be without the middle of both their offensive and defensive lines and nose tackle Jay Ratliff and center Phil Costa have been ruled out. Ratliff missed the opener as well with a high ankle sprain. In his absence, defensive end Sean Lissemore played more inside, while Josh Price-Brent got the start at nose tackle. The Cowboys played well on the defensive line and were able to hold the Giants to 17 points. Jason Hatcher had a huge game with 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 4 quarterback pressures, but if he hadn’t done that, they would have missed Ratliff a lot more. Ratliff was ProFootballFocus’ 7th rated defensive tackle last year and he is expected back next week.

Costa, meanwhile, had been having back troubles throughout the preseason, but started anyway week 1. He had to leave after reinjuring his back and will not play this week. Ryan Cook, who was acquired from the Dolphins for a late round pick right before final cuts, stepped in for him last week and will get the start once again. He represents a weakness on the offensive line for the Cowboys, as do new starters Mackenzy Bernadeau and Nate Livings. Livings was awful in 2011 with the Bengals and Bernadeau is a career backup and former 7th round pick so I have no idea why the Cowboys paid him starter’s money to start for them. The Seahawks’ defensive line is stout in the middle and stout against the run, so DeMarco Murray could have a tough time establishing himself this week. The NFL’s 6th ranked run defense last year, they held Arizona to 43 yards on 20 carries in the opener.

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Dolphins rule Daniel Thomas out with a concussion

stevenlourie Dolphins, News

Daniel Thomas is the Dolphins’ 2nd string running back and is the type of player who could have a big role on a weekly basis, depending on the matchup, because of how much the Dolphins like to run. They only got the run 19 times in the opener, 2 of which were quarterback scrambles, because they were down by so much, so Thomas only had 3 carries. He did catch a catch for 32 yards though. This week they should have a more evenly matched game, playing the Oakland Raiders, but Thomas will not play.

Thomas suffered a concussion last week towards the end of the game. He was given clearance to play this week, which is a good sign going forward, but the Dolphins are being extra cautious with the 2011 2nd round pick and will hold him out anyway. Lamar Miller, a 4th round rookie and a game day inactive week 1, will serve as Reggie Bush’s primary backup.

There shouldn’t be a huge drop off, if any, as Thomas has disappointed in his career thus far, averaging just 3.5 YPC. Miller might even be an upgrade and use this game as a launching pad to become the primary #2 back over Thomas, who had been in the new coaching staff’s doghouse at times this offseason. Marcus Thigpen, meanwhile, will continue to serve as the 3rd game day active back because of his role as a return man on special teams. In the opener, he averaged 27.4 yards per return on 5 kickoffs and returned a punt to the house 72 yards for the team’s only touchdown of the day.

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Broncos place Ty Warren on IR, work out 3 defensive tackles

stevenlourie Broncos, News

Ty Warren can’t seem to catch a break. After missing the entirety of the last 2 seasons with separate injuries, Ty Warren’s 2012 season lasted just 1 game before he was put on IR after tearing his triceps again. Warren was not a huge part of the Broncos’ defense, but the Broncos need to replenish depth with him out and worked out 3 defensive tackles for the spot, Brian Price, Terrell McClain, and Daniel Muir, though they have not signed one yet.

Price and McClain would be the high risk, high reward guys. McClain was a 3rd round pick in the 2011 NFL Draft, but really struggled last year and the Panthers surprisingly gave up on him after just 1 year, making him a final cut. Price, meanwhile, was a 2nd round pick in 2010, but he really struggled last year and after a tumultuous offseason filled with off the field distractions, Price started a fight with a teammate in Tampa Bay and was promptly shipped to the Bears for a late round pick. The Bears later made him a final cut. Both have upside, but neither have proven they can make good on it. Muir, meanwhile, is a veteran journeyman who offers no upside.

As for Warren, it’s definitely fair to wonder if this is the end of the line for the 2003 1st round pick and one time All-Pro. He’ll be a free agent next offseason and there won’t be a huge market for a 32 year old free agent who has missed 47 of 48 games over the last 3 seasons with injury. He already had to take a pay cut from 4 million to 1.5 million just to stay on the Broncos’ roster this season and might not find a single taker next offseason.

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Missing several receivers, Saints will give Joseph Morgan a chance

stevenlourie Saints

The Saints are missing several depth receivers with injury. They’ve already put Nick Toon and Adrian Arrington on IR, while Devery Henderson will miss this week with a concussion. However, the NFL is a next man up league and for the Saints, that next man up is 2011 undrafted free agent Joseph Morgan. Morgan, out of Walsh University, made his NFL debut last week and was very quiet, failing to record a catch on 2 targets on 30 pass snaps, but in his 2nd NFL game, he could bounce back and should play a higher percentage of the passing snaps (last week he played exactly half).

Still, he remains a poor fantasy option as Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston, Lance Moore, and Darren Sproles all figure to be more popular targets than him. Moore gets a boost up in fantasy leagues though with Morgan out. Moore led the team with 6 catches for 120 yards in the opener and has always stepped up when need be in the past. Moore is no slouch, with 118 catches for 1390 yards and 16 touchdowns in the last 2 seasons combined and is a borderline WR3 in fantasy leagues this week.

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Eagles expect both DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin to play

stevenlourie Eagles, News

When healthy, DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin represent one of the two receiving duos in the NFL. Unfortunately for the Eagles, both have injuries that caused them to miss some practice time. Both are listed as questionable, as Maclin has a hip injury and Jackson has a hamstring problem. Both, however, are expected to play, barring any further setbacks between now and game time, despite their questionable tag. Maclin assured reporters he would play Friday after practicing in limited fashion, while multiple sources believe Jackson will play, including the Philadelphia Inquirer and NFL Network’s Jason La Canfora. The Eagles will need all the help they can get as they head home to play a Baltimore team coming off a big Monday Night win.

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Falcons lose Brent Grimes for season

stevenlourie Falcons, News

The Falcons came away with a huge win week 1, beating the Chiefs 40-24 to start the season. I know the Chiefs were missing their top two defenders, but the Falcons’ new offense was as advertised and it was a good win for them on the road, where they’ve had some recent trouble. Matt Ryan was 23 of 31 for 299 yards and 3 touchdowns. However, the win was not without losses.

Top cornerback Brent Grimes tore his Achilles and was placed on IR, ending his season. Last season, Grimes was ProFootballFocus’ 3rd ranked cornerback and allowed 25 catches on 56 attempts (44.6%) for 258 yards (4.6 YPA), 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception, while deflecting 12 passes and committing 1 penalty. He was franchised tagged this offseason, but did not sign a long term deal and likely cost himself millions on any future long term deal with this injury.

The Falcons traded for Asante Samuel this offseason to shore up the #2 cornerback spot as Dunta Robinson had been struggling. Robinson will now have to step into the starting lineup with Chris Owens playing the slot. This is bad news because Robinson has struggled whenever he’s been forced to start and last year he allowed 43 catches on 77 attempts (55.8%) for 734 yards (9.5 YPA), 3 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, while deflecting 5 passes and committing 4 penalties. He was ProFootballFocus’ 90th ranked cornerback out of 98.

Defense was already not a strong suit of the Falcons’ coming into the season and they even struggled to stop the Chiefs mediocre offense before the Grimes injury. The Falcons will score a lot of points and win a lot of games, but they’ll need to play a lot of shoot outs. This injury dampers, to say the least, a very good weekend which featured the Falcons winning big and the Saints losing at home.

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It’s an issue of pain tolerance for Redskins’ Pierre Garcon

stevenlourie Commanders, News

Pierre Garcon got off to a hell of a start to his season, catching 4 passes on Robert Griffin’s first 5 attempts, for 104 yards and a touchdown, looking like Kendall Wright tearing up the Big 12 with Robert Griffin last season. However, he got hurt after that and left the game with a foot injury. He did some very limited work in practice this week and he’s expected to be a game time decision. According to Head Coach Mike Shanahan, in an interview with CSN Washington, it will be a “pain tolerance” issue for Garcon, meaning, if Garcon can play through the pain, he can play. If not, he’ll sit. For what it’s worth, NFL Network’s Jason La Canfora believes he’ll sit.

In Garcon’s absence, Aldrick Robinson did his best Garcon impression, catching 4 passes for 52 yards and a score and leading the team in targets. It’s clear that Griffin likes speedsters threats like Garcon and Robinson, over possession receivers like Santana Moss and tight end Fred Davis, so Garcon should be in for another big game if healthy. Unfortunately for fantasy owners, this game is a 4 o’clock start so your options will be limited if Garcon ends up not going. Only start him if you have someone who starts at that time or later that you’d be comfortable replacing him with. Picking on Robinson as a handcuff might not be a terrible idea.

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Bills lose David Nelson for season, Fred Jackson for at least 4 weeks

stevenlourie Bills, News

The Bills didn’t just lose the opener in embarrassing fashion, 48-28; they also lost two players for an extended period of time. Wide receiver David Nelson tore his ACL and was placed on season ending IR. Nelson is a largely underwhelming talent, who caught 61 passes for 658 yards and 5 touchdowns last year, but the slot receiver was Ryan Fitzpatrick’s #2 target and plays at a position of little depth.

In his absence, starter Donald Jones, another underwhelming talent, will move from the outside to the slot on passing downs. Jones had 41 catches for 444 yards and 2 touchdowns coming into the season and didn’t do much in the opener, catching 5 passes for 41 yards and a touchdown. Meanwhile, 3rd round rookie TJ Graham will come into the game in 3-wide receiver sets. Graham has talent, but he’s incredibly raw, having started just one year as a wide receiver at NC State. After those 3 on the depth chart, they have career journeyman Ruvell Martin and his 20 catches over the last 3 seasons, and wildcat quarterback Brad Smith.

The other injury was to Fred Jackson. Jackson sprained his knee and was given a murky timetable of 3-8 weeks, though for what it’s worth, he says it will be 4 weeks or less. He’ll be re-evaluated in 7-10 days. He’s a more talented player, but the injury isn’t quite as severe as Nelson’s and the Bills have depth at the position. In his absence, CJ Spiller rushed for 169 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries against a normally good Jets’ run defense and added 2 catches for 25 yards. I know the Jets were without Sione Pouha, but it was still a very impressive game for him. In 6 starts last year, he rushed for 449 yards and 3 scores on 90 carries, adding in another 26 catches for 205 yards and 2 scores through the air. Remember, he was the 9th overall pick in 2010, so he should be more than capable of carrying the load in Jackson’s absence.

The one issue there is with depth behind Spiller. Spiller isn’t the prototypical lead back because of his size at 5-11 196. He’s not the short yardage back Fred Jackson was and if he proves to not be durable enough to carry the load, their next option on the depth chart is the mediocre Tashard Choice. Choice isn’t much of a short yardage back either, because he’s just generally not a great back, so he should only see a few carries per game behind Spiller, at most. It’s all on Spiller now.

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Panthers expect Steve Smith and Jonathan Stewart to play, Greg Hardy questionable

stevenlourie News, Panthers

Jonathan Stewart missed the opener against the Buccaneers and yet he has more rushing yards than DeAngelo Williams, who ended up for -1 rushing yards last year as the Buccaneers, owners of the league’s 31st ranked run defense in 2011, held them to 10 yards on 13 carries, even though the Panthers had the league’s #1 run offense in 2011. That should prove to be a fluke, especially with Jonathan Stewart returning. Cam Newton will continue to run the ball well and open things up on the ground for Stewart and Williams. Williams will get the start this week, but Stewart will have a sizeable role as a backup, as usual. Neither is much more than a low end RB2 or flex play this week though.

Steve Smith, meanwhile, is also expected to play this week, as he normally does through minor injuries. He missed some time during the week in practice, but he’ll be good to go and serve as Cam Newton’s #1 receiver again. When he led the team with 7 catches for 107 yards in the opener, it marked the 12th time in Cam Newton’s 17 starts that Steve Smith led the team in receiving. There might be more productive wide receivers, but it’s hard to argue any receiver means more to his team than Smith does, when you consider their other options.

Meanwhile, on the defensive side of the ball, the Panthers have listed defensive end Greg Hardy as questionable with a knee injury and he’s expected to be a game time decision. If he has to sit, it would be a big loss for the Panthers. He’s not a well known player, but he was an above average pass rusher last year. With 4 sacks, 8 quarterback hits, and 33 quarterback pressures on 503 pass rush snaps, he had a pass rush rate of 8.9%, very solid. The Panthers had the league’s 27th ranked scoring defense last year and didn’t do much at all to upgrade the defensive line or the secondary, the two more important units. They need Hardy this week against a Saints offense that you know can go off at any time, even as discombobulated as they looked in the opener.

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