Month: September 2012

Denver Broncos at Atlanta Falcons: Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 2 NFL Picks, Broncos, Falcons

Denver Broncos (1-0) at Atlanta Falcons (1-0)

If it wasn’t for Green Bay/Chicago, this would be the game of the week. Actually, scratch that, Green Bay/Chicago was an incredibly ugly game that should have been the game of the week, but wasn’t because teams only had 3 days to prepare and played much worse than they normally do. I hate this new one game on Thursday every week thing. Thursday Night games are often awful, ugly, hard to watch games and in the case of Green Bay/Chicago, it cost us a chance to see two great teams fight for the division on normal rest.

Anyway, this game is on Monday Night Football, so both teams will be fully prepared and then some. Both teams made huge statement games in their first week back offensively, Peyton Manning by proving that even 4 neck surgeries and an address change couldn’t slow him down, completing 19 of 26 for 253 yards and 2 scores and hanging 31 on the Steelers, while Matt Ryan proved that all the hype about a potential breakout year for him in his 5th year in the league was not just hype as he completed 23 of 31 for 299 yards and 3 scores.

Neither of these teams plays very good defense either. Denver had a strong defensive performance in the opener, but they were the league’s 24th ranked scoring defense in 2011 with essentially the same group of guys. Some of that was on the offenses struggles putting a ton of pressure on the defense and Peyton Manning’s presence will help, but they also ranked 18th in the league last year in terms of points per play allowed. Unless free agent acquisition Tracy Porter can continue to be the shutdown cornerback he was in the opener, the Broncos will be an average defensive team most likely this year, and Porter’s history suggests that his performance last week was probably the best we’re going to see from him this year.

Atlanta, meanwhile, was the league’s 18th ranked scoring defense last year. They did make a significant addition this offseason, bringing in Asante Samuel from Philadelphia to shore up a weakness and that was the cornerback spot opposite Brent Grimes. However, Grimes is now done for the year with a torn Achilles, which obviously hurts them because he’s one of the top cornerbacks in the league when healthy and they had some trouble stopping a mediocre Kansas City offense in the opener even before Grimes went down. In Grimes’ place, Dunta Robinson will step into the starting lineup. He’s been one of the worst starting cornerbacks in the league over the past few years and he’s the reason why they brought in Samuel.

So we know a lot of points are going to be scored, but who wins? As enticing as it is to be able to bet on Peyton Manning as an underdog, 10-4 ATS in this situation since 2006, it’s even more enticing to bet on Matt Ryan at home where he’s 21-8 ATS in his career (25-5 SU). It’s important to remember that the Falcons’ strong offensive day last week came on the road, while the Broncos’ came at home. The Broncos have a huge home field advantage this year with the combination of the thin air and Peyton Manning’s no huddle offense; defenses are just going to get tired and Manning will be able to tear them apart late, like he did against Pittsburgh (9 of 12 for 155 yards and 2 scores). He won’t have that same advantage in Atlanta, so while I like both sides to score a lot of points, it’s a small lean on the home team in this one. This is also another opportunity to “fade” the public, something I love to do. It’s not entirely by design, but I’ve actually faded the public in every pick but 2 so far this week. I also like betting against public underdogs, which Denver is.

Public lean: Denver (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Atlanta covers)

Atlanta Falcons 34 Denver Broncos 27

Pick against spread: Atlanta -3 (-115) 1 unit

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Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers: Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 2 NFL Picks, 49ers, Lions

Detroit Lions (1-0) at San Francisco 49ers (1-0)

Both of these teams were in my overrated group heading into the season. The idea with the overrated/underrated teams was to bet the underrated teams and against the overrated teams until the odds makers caught up or I was proven wrong. Detroit didn’t prove me wrong as they barely eked out a come from behind win at home against the Rams, helping me nail my pick of the week, but the 49ers proved me wrong last week, pulling the upset victory in Green Bay. In fact, of all of my preseason predictions, that may be the one I end up being most wrong on. This doesn’t bother me too much, as I was 5-2 last week on games involved underrated or overrated teams, but it does force me to make adjustments.

I don’t think it’s really fair to say that the 49ers are on overrated team anymore, but it is fair to say that about the Lions. In order to improve on their win total, the Lions would have to improve their win total for the 4th straight season. In the up and down NFL, that rarely happens. Their running back depth chart is basically the same as their inactive list. They finished last season 5-7, including playoffs. They had a distraction filled offseason and they needed an NFL record 4 comebacks of 13 points or more to even win 10 games last year, because of how bad their defense is. It’s not any better this season and if the offense doesn’t bail them out at a record rate again, they could regress.

There’s no way they deserve to be just 7 point underdogs in San Francisco. That suggests that San Francisco is just 4 points better than the Lions, which I don’t think is true. The one thing that I acknowledged could completely derail my 49ers prediction would be Alex Smith improbably breaking out as a true franchise quarterback at age 28, with the addition of new weapons and a full offseason in Jim Harbaugh’s scheme. That’s because the premise behind calling the 49ers an overrated team was largely based on my observation that teams cannot consistently win in the NFL without a true franchise quarterback. You can have a good year, or even a great year, but it’s hard to be consistent on a year to year basis purely on running the football, playing good defense, and winning the turnover battle (See Baltimore pre-Flacco and Chicago pre-Cutler).

It’s still inconclusive whether or not Smith is a true franchise quarterback, but one thing is for sure, the Packers made him look like one, blowing coverages left and right, failing to stop the run, and only pressuring him on 7 of 33 drop backs. It’ll still be inconclusive whether or not Smith is a true franchise quarterback after this one because the Lions also have a terrible defense, ranking 23rd in scoring last year.

They were the league’s 28th ranked run defense in 2011, so despite a strong showing in run defense in the opener, I don’t expect them to be able to contain the 49ers’ two headed attack of Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter. This will make life very easy for Smith, who will also be facing a Lions’ pass defense that made Sam Bradford look pretty good in the opener (17 of 25 for 198 yards and a score).

They’ll probably be able to get more pressure on Smith than the Packers did, but their secondary is even worse, even with Chris Houston returning from injury. They’ll still be without Louis Delmas and now rookie Bill Bentley with injury, leaving Jacob Lacey, who struggled as a starter in Indianapolis last year, to start opposite Houston. Meanwhile, Drayton Florence, who was recently a final cut of the Broncos, will man the slot. With Delmas out, veteran journeyman Erik Coleman will start next to incumbent 2011 starter Amari Spievey, who really struggled last year. The 49ers should be able to move the ball.

Because of that and their ball control offense, they should be able to keep Matt Stafford and company on the sidelines for the majority of the game, like they did to Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. The Lions are like a poor man’s version of the Packers, assuming the Packers’ defense doesn’t improve. The 49ers beat the Packers in Lambeau last week, so they should be able to beat the Lions at home. The 49ers won’t stop Stafford and this passing game, like they didn’t stop Aaron Rodgers and the Packers’ passing game, but they’ll limit them and dominate the other areas of the game, much like last week. Also like last week, they should be able to put a complete halt on a Lions running game that isn’t very good to begin with, much like the Packers’.

I’m going with the 49ers here as 7 point favorites in a matchup of two of my preseason overrated teams. The 49ers looked much, much better than the Lions did last week and they match up very well with the one dimensional Lions. The reason this isn’t a big bet is twofold. For one, the 49ers don’t have the type of offense built to blow people out, while the Lions have the type of offense that can mount a late backdoor cover drive against a sizeable spread. The 2nd reason is “handshake gate.” Jim Schwartz is kind of crazy and took Harbaugh’s rough handshake very personally after these two teams met last year. If he can somehow use that as motivation for his team, they’ll have the motivation edge in this one.

Public lean: San Francisco (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Detroit covers)

San Francisco 49ers 27 Detroit Lions 17

Pick against spread: San Francisco -7 (-110) 1 unit

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Arizona Cardinals at New England Patriots: Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 2 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Patriots

Arizona Cardinals (1-0) at New England Patriots (0-1)

Kevin Kolb looked good in relief of an injured John Skelton last week, leading the game winning drive to beat the Seahawks, but the Seahawks are a mediocre to average team that always seems to flop on the road. The Patriots in Foxboro are going to obviously be a much tougher challenge. The offense has taken on new dimensions with the addition of Brandon Lloyd as a deep threat, the promotion of the more explosive Stevan Ridley at running back, and the re-addition of Josh McDaniels as offensive coordinator; they didn’t even need Wes Welker in the opener.

Welker barely did anything. They have so many weapons that it didn’t even matter. They can still have a great game even if one of their top 4 receivers doesn’t do anything. Tom Brady looks as good as ever and the offensive line, a concern heading into the game, held up just enough to allow everyone else enough time to keep open and Tom Brady to find them.

Defensively, they seem to be much improved from last season. Last year, like the Packers, they gave up a bunch of yards like the Packers did, but did alright defensively because they forced a bunch of turnovers. Forcing a bunch of turnovers is not something that’s reliable on a yearly basis, but unlike the Packers, the Patriots’ defense seems to have gotten even better, particularly in the front 7; their secondary may still have some questions, but they have a big, physical offensive front with Vince Wilfork, Kyle Love, Rod Ninkovich, Chandler Jones, Dont’a Hightower, Brandon Spikes, Jerod Mayo and adequate depth.

They can get pressure against anyone, pressuring Locker on 14 of 36 dropbacks, against a Tennessee offensive line that surrendered the 2nd fewest sacks in the league last year, and they are fierce against the run, holding to 20 yards rushing on 16 attempts, with 11 of those coming on 2 quarterback scrambles.

This doesn’t bode well for the Cardinals. The Cardinals found no running home against a tough Seahawks run defense last week, rushing for 43 yards on 20 carries and this week shouldn’t be much difference. Meanwhile, they have one of the worst offensive lines in the league, so the Patriots should be able to get pressure on Kevin Kolb early and often, which is a very bad thing for the Cardinals.

Even though Kolb looked decent in very limited action last week, leading a game winning drive, it doesn’t change the fact that Kolb has very poor pocket presence. Kolb took a sack on 26.1% of pressured dropbacks last year, 3rd worst among eligible quarterbacks, and in 2010 he was 6th, taking one on 23.2% of pressured drop backs. Even with the Patriots’ less than stellar secondary, Kolb should have trouble consistently moving the ball against the Patriots’, unsupported by a running game, and since the Patriots’ offense can put pressure on the opposing offense better than maybe any team in the league, he could be forced into several turnovers.

This should be a very easy win for the Patriots, especially since the Cardinals are travelling across the country to play 1 PM ET start as a West Coast team, a situation teams tend to struggle in. The Patriots are one of the best teams in the league and the Cardinals are one of the worst. This isn’t a very big bet, because this is a huge line, but all signs point to this being a blowout. This is also my choice for survivor pick of the week, for anyone who does that type of thing (last week, it was Houston).

Public lean: New England (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Arizona covers)

New England Patriots 38 Arizona Cardinals 10 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: New England Patriots -14 (-110) 1 unit

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Giants: Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 2 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Giants

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-0) at New York Giants (0-1)

I had the Buccaneers as one of my underrated teams coming into the season. In 2010, everything went right for this team. They had an easy schedule and went 9-1 against sub .500 teams (1-5 against everyone else). They turned the ball over just 19 times and after regressing 6 wins from 2008 to 2009, predictably bounced back. Teams that regress 6 wins win an average of 3.0 more games the following season. The Buccaneers did that and more, going from 3 to 10 wins.

However, in 2011, they predictably declined. Like teams that regress by a big win total, teams that improve by a big win total also tend to go the other direction in the following season. Teams that improve 7 games win an average of 4.5 fewer games the following season. The Buccaneers are very familiar with this principle, going from 9 wins in 2008 to 3 in 2009 to 10 in 2010. It was easy to see how they’d do it. They turned the ball over less than 20 times in 2010, which is an unsustainable stat for a team without a true elite quarterback. There have been 36 teams since 2002 with 20 or fewer turnovers. In their next season, those teams, have had, on average, 9.64 more turnovers and won 2.69 fewer games. They also had a much tougher schedule and proved in 2010 that they couldn’t beat tough competition.

The Buccaneers ended up regressing more than 4.5 wins. They regressed 6 wins and turned the ball over a whopping 40 times, going 4-12 and losing their last 10 after quitting on Head Coach Raheem Morris. They went from playing 6 games against teams that were .500 or better than 11 and didn’t improve, going 2-9 in those 11 games. There is definitely reason to be optimistic for the Buccaneers this season. Teams that regress 6 wins win an average of 3.0 more games the following season and teams that turn the ball over 35 times or more have averaged 9.74 fewer turnovers the next season and have won 1.61 more games. Raheem Morris is gone and is replaced with a much more disciplinarian Head Coach in Greg Schiano and the team finally spent money in the offseason. Though they overpaid each one of them, there’s no doubt that the trio of Vincent Jackson, Carl Nicks, and Eric Wright, overall, will have a positive impact on this team in 2012.

Their young defense should be better with another year of experience and they could get a bounce back year from Aqib Talib. They also get Gerald McCoy back from injury. McCoy is an incredibly valuable player when healthy. When he’s been in the lineup over the past 2 years, they’re 11-8 and allow 22.1 points per game. When he’s not, they’re 3-12 and allow 30.2 points per game. That’s obviously not all him, as those numbers are skewed because he missed most of his time last season when they had a tougher schedule and committed more turnovers. However, the 3rd pick in the 2010 NFL Draft is still a great player and they really missed him when he got hurt last season.

Eric Wright, though he was not worth his giant contract, will be an upgrade at cornerback over Ronde Barber, who has been moved to safety. They also add rookie safety Mark Barron to an improved defensive backfield and rookie linebacker Lavonte David to one of the worst linebacking corps in the NFL last year. The new coaching staff will also bring discipline to a team that missed the most tackles of any team since they started keeping the stat. Remember, this team had the 9th ranked defense in the league in 2010, allowing 19.9 points per game. They probably won’t be that good, but fewer missed tackles, additions, bounce back years, maturation of young players, an easier schedule, and fewer turnovers from the offense (which puts a ton of pressure on the defense) should help this defense be more middle of the pack.

Offensively, they have the additions of Carl Nicks and Vincent Jackson, as well as potential bounce back years from Mike Williams and LeGarrette Blount, key parts of their 2010 team. They also add running back Doug Martin in the first round of the draft. Gone is Kellen Winslow, but that might be a good thing. Of Freeman’s 22 interceptions, 9 were targeted for Winslow, most in the league. Davin Joseph is also gone for the year with injury, but he’s one of the most overrated players in the league so that’s not a huge deal. Josh Freeman probably won’t have the 25 touchdowns to 6 interceptions he had in 2010, but he probably won’t have the 16 touchdowns to 22 interceptions he had last year.

In the opener, they not only proved me right, but they showed they may actually be better than what I thought. I had them right in the middle of 4 and 10 wins at 7, but if their defense continues to play like that (remember, they were the 9th ranked defense in 2010), they’re going to be much closer to 10 wins than 4. The idea with the underrated teams was to bet them until they proved me wrong or the odds makers caught up. They didn’t prove me wrong, but I’m starting to wonder if maybe the odds makers caught up. They’re just +7 here on the road against the defending Super Bowl champs and keep in mind, they are still just 3-14 against teams that finish with a record of .500 or better, which the Giants almost definitely will.

For that reason, I’m pretty torn on this one. They may still be underrated, but not nearly as much as they were last week, when they were home underdogs for a Carolina team that won 6 games last year. However, the Giants are coming off an emotional loss and may come out flat in this one. Super Bowl champs are 2-6 ATS week 2 ever since the NFL started having defending Super Bowl champs play on Thursday Night Football (Wednesday Night Football this year because of some stupid political crap).

Now, the last 8 have all won that opener, but even teams that lose that game are 2-6 ATS the following week. It’s an emotional game for both sides, for the defending Super Bowl champ because they get a big celebration and get their rings and for the opponent because they want to knock off the champs, especially after watching them celebrate and get their rings. Both sides tend to be flat the following week and that could happen to the Giants this week.

However, the Giants are 7-3 ATS under Tom Coughlin as favorites after losing as a favorite. In a very similar situation last year, after having a dud week 1 performance in a multi-score loss to the Redskins, they blew out the Rams the following week as favorites. Besides, this is typically a good team in the first half of the season. They’re 40-26 ATS during the first 9 weeks of the season under Tom Coughlin, and straight up, they’re 47-18 in their first 8 games under Tom Coughlin, as opposed to 27-37 in their last 8. Plus, as I said, the Buccaneers have trouble beating .500+ teams.

So what’s my pick? I’m going with the Buccaneers to continue to prove that they’re underrated, even if they’re significantly less so than last week, and to keep this one close and within the 7 points, but to ultimately lose. The ATS trends seem to suggest that the Buccaneers will cover, even if the SU trends seem to suggest that the Giants will win outright, so that’s what I’m going with. I also am taking this opportunity to not only bet on one of my preseason underrated teams, but also to “fade” the public, something I love to do. It’s not entirely by design, but I’ve actually faded the public in every pick so far this week. It’s not a very big bet though.

Public lean: NY Giants (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Tampa Bay covers)

New York Giants 27 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay +7 (-110) 2 units

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Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks: Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 2 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Seahawks

Dallas Cowboys (1-0) at Seattle Seahawks (0-1)

No team has a bigger home/road disparity over the past few years than the Seattle Seahawks. Since 2007, they’re 11-32 SU and 14-28 ATS on the road, but 24-18 SU and 27-14 ATS at home. That’s why it was predictable that they would lose to an inferior Cardinals team on the road last week; that’s why it’s now predictable that they’ll bounce back at home against a superior Cowboys team.

Speaking of that superior Cowboys team, they got a huge win last week over the New York Giants. Since the NFL started having teams play on Thursday Night to start the season (this year it was Wednesday night because of some stupid political thing), teams that win that game are 2-6 ATS the following week. The Packers almost lost to the Panthers the following week last year and they started 13-0.

Now, all 8 of the teams that won the opener have been Super Bowl champs, but it doesn’t seem to have anything to do with whether or not you’re defending Super Bowl champs. Teams that lose that game are also 2-6 ATS the following week. It’s an emotional game for both sides, for the defending Super Bowl champ because they get a big celebration and get their rings and for the opponent because they want to knock off the champs, especially after watching them celebrate and get their rings.

Besides, teams are 16-27 ATS since 2002 after knocking off the defending Super Bowl champ, regardless of week. Teams typically give everything they have when they play the Super Bowl champs and after getting an emotional win, it becomes very tough for them to sustain that energy the following week, so they’re typically flat and also typically slightly overrated coming off a huge win.

This should be true for the Cowboys. They gave the Giants everything they had last week, in an effort to not just knock off the Super Bowl champs, but to also try to establish dominance over a divisional foe who had recently had their number and just last season ended their season. It’s going to be very tough for them to sustain that kind of energy against the “lowly” Seahawks, who just lost to the Cardinals.

Besides, even though they won last week, it wasn’t quite as impressive as people are making it seem. The Giants may have been defending Super Bowl champs, but they were also the worst regular season team, in terms of win and point differential, to ever win the Super Bowl and the Cowboys only won because Tony Romo played one of the best games of his career and would not let the Cowboys destroy themselves with penalties. This week, that probably won’t happen and if they continue to commit tons of penalties, they could easily lose.

Now on to the “lowly” Seahawks. Their road/home disparity makes them a little underrated here. Their loss last week to an inferior squad was predictable, but they still have a strong defense and they still can run the ball and win if they don’t turn the ball over much, especially at home. They’re not some easy opponent that’s just going to roll over in Seattle (since 2007, they’re 12-4 ATS as home dogs of 3+). Last week, they were road favorites, normally the sign of a strong team and this week they’re home dogs, normally the sign of a week team. That seems like an overreaction based on one week.

A trend that sums this situation up nicely is this one: teams that lose as road favorites are 45-34 ATS since 1989 as home dogs the following week. This makes sense. Last week, they were good enough to be road favorites and now after just one week they’re bad enough to be home dogs? That’s an overreaction and the public is definitely overreacting to one week as almost all of the action is on the Cowboys in this one. I’m not going to overreact to one week. I’m going to pick the Seahawks to predictably bounce back at home after predictably flopping on the road against a Cowboys team that is publicly overrated and will overlook them following a huge, emotional victory.

Public lean: Dallas (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Seattle covers)

Seattle Seahawks 24 Dallas Cowboys 20 Upset Pick +155

Pick against spread: Seattle +3 (+115) 4 units

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Oakland Raiders at Miami Dolphins: Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 2 NFL Picks, Dolphins, Raiders

Oakland Raiders (0-1) at Miami Dolphins (0-1)

Before the season, I had the Raiders as one of my overrated teams. The Raiders’ Pythagorean Expectation last year suggested they should have won 6 games, not 8, as they went 7-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less, the most wins of that kind of any team last season. The Raiders also lost their top cornerback Stanford Routt and their top pass rusher Kamerion Wimbley in free agency.

If that’s not enough, starting linebacker Aaron Curry could be out for the year and will be replaced in the starting lineup by a 4th round rookie and defensive tackles Tommy Kelly and Richard Seymour are both going into their age 33 seasons, with the latter already dealing with a bad knee. They had the league’s 29th ranked scoring defense last year, allowing 27.1 points per game and could be the league’s worst scoring defense this year. Carson Palmer and the playmakers on offense can make some plays, but they’ll also commit a lot of turnovers and it won’t be enough to offset the defense’s play.

The idea behind identifying overrated and underrated teams was to be one step ahead of the odds makers and essentially blindly bet against the overrated teams and on the underrated teams until the odds makers caught up or the teams proved me wrong. Well I haven’t been proven wrong as the Raiders lost at home to a banged up Chargers team that normally struggles on the road early in the season. Have the odds makers caught up? Well, considering the Raiders are road favorites here in Miami, I would say no.

Miami is a very good team or anything, but the Raiders don’t deserve to be road favorites over anyone. I’ve mentioned before that teams that finish with 6 or fewer wins cover at about a 30% rate as favorites of 6 or more. Well, the Raiders aren’t favorites of 6 or more, but they’re road favorites of 2.5, which would translate to -8.5 in Oakland. The trend isn’t as strong in this situation, but the logic is the same; they’re just not good enough to be favored on the road over anyone.

There’s also the issue of the Raiders having to play a 1 PM game on the East Coast as a West Coast teams. Teams are typically flat in this situation and the Raiders are no exception, going 6-12 ATS on the East Coast in 1 PM games since 2003. The Raiders came in to Miami in a very similar situation last year and lost 34-14 as 3 point underdogs, even though the Dolphins were 4-7 at the time and the Raiders were 7-4. This time, the Raiders are favorites, which makes Miami an even more enticing bet since Oakland is 4-14 ATS as favorites since 2006. They also haven’t been road favorites since week 14 of 2005 (a loss), which makes sense since they’ve never been qualified to be road favorites since then. They aren’t this week either.

These teams are pretty evenly matched. This line should be about -3 in favor of Miami (3 points is home field advantage), as it was last year. The Dolphins are worse offensively since last year, but the Raiders are worse defensively. Instead, it’s -2.5 in favor of Oakland, so there’s about 5.5 points of line value, which goes back to my point about Oakland being overrated. That alone would be enough for a bet on Miami, but I like betting against Oakland as favorites and on the road on the East Coast at 1 PM.

Public lean: Oakland (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Miami covers)

Miami Dolphins 20 Oakland Raiders 17 Upset Pick +140

Pick against spread: Miami +2.5 (-105) 3 units

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New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers: Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 2 NFL Picks, Jets, Steelers

New York Jets (1-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (0-1)

If I had remembered how bad the Steelers were on the road last year, I probably would not have picked them in Denver. Seriously, look at this, lose by 28 in Baltimore, win by 3 in Indianapolis, lose by 7 in Houston, win by 12 in Arizona, win by 7 in Cincinnati, win by 4 in Kansas City, lose by 17 in San Francisco, win by 4 in Cleveland. 3 good teams beat them, 3 bad teams hung with them, the only impressive wins were by 12 in Arizona and by 7 in Cincinnati and even those weren’t that impressive, and then of course there was the overtime playoff loss to the Broncos. This team was -22 on the road last year and +120 at home.

The good news for the Steelers, they return home this week. They also return James Harrison from injury and get back Ryan Clark, who can’t play in thin mountain air because of a genetic condition. That will help this defense, as will the fact that they won’t be playing against a no huddle offense in thin mountain air. It also didn’t help that last week was just their first game back. They looked gassed for most of the Broncos’ game, especially once the Broncos went true no huddle. This week, they won’t see a lot of no huddle and they’ll be playing back at home and at sea level. This is a very talented defense; last week just seemed to be a bad situation for them. Remember, they were the #1 scoring defense in 2011 despite key injuries and despite a league low 15 turnovers, something that almost certainly won’t happen again this year.

This week, they also won’t be playing an offensive juggernaut like the Broncos were. The Jets may have looked like an offensive juggernaut last week, exploding for 48 points after failing to score a touchdown with either their first or second team offense all preseason. However, that’s a little misleading. 14 of those points were scored by their defense or special teams and they definitely benefitted from consistently great field position, starting their 9 drives on the 35.1 yard line on average, a big part of the reason why they were able to score 4 touchdowns and kick 2 field goals. They actually only had 384 yards, the 11th highest total on the week.

On top of all that, the Bills’ defense just seemed to quit after they got down big early. The Jets got up 21-0 early on the strength of a 61 yard touchdown drive, a 52 yard touchdown drive, and a punt return touchdown and the Bills just seemingly gave up after that. That’s why I call their offensive performance a defensive aided offensive performance. The defense gave them great field position all night, especially early, and allowed the Jets to work with short fields against a Bills defense that had given up after getting down big early. Their offense scored 34 points and had 384 yards largely because of that. I’m not trying to completely sell the offense short. They played a very good game and surprised a lot of people, but they had a lot of help from the defense, who was able to capitalize on Ryan Fitzpatrick’s terrible game. Their offense problems aren’t totally solved and they’re going to have trouble beating real teams with real quarterbacks, which the Steelers definitely are.

The other issue is just offensive consistency. Mark Sanchez has had good games in the past, but one of his biggest issues has been consistency. It’s for that reason that his career QB rating is pretty mediocre, 74.2. He’s completed 55.6% of his career passes for an average of 6.8 YPA and 58 touchdowns to 52 interceptions. He doesn’t magically become a better quarterback just because he had a good game. It also doesn’t help that his top receiver is a 2nd round rookie, Stephen Hill, who, by his very nature as a rookie, will also be inconsistent this season. Was their offense impressive last week? Yes. Do I expect it to continue? No, especially not against the Steelers’ defense.

Unless the Steelers’ offense completely implodes like the Bills’ did last week, the Jets offense will have a harder time scoring points this week, especially against one of the top defenses in the league. I don’t expect the Steelers’ offense to implode, especially since the Jets could be without their top defensive player, Darrelle Revis, who suffered a concussion last week and will need to be cleared before game time if he wants to play.

The Jets’ performance last week and, to a lesser extent, the Steelers’ performance last week has skewed this line a lot. Before last week, this line probably would have been something like -9 in favor of the Steelers. Instead, it’s -5.5. That suggests that the Jets are only 2.5 points worse than the Steelers (add 3 for home field advantage) and I don’t think that’s true, especially with Revis’ status in doubt. There’s a lot of line value here. The Steelers should bounce back at home, with 2 defensive starters returning, with a better matchup for their defense (no thin air, very little no huddle), while the Jets’ offensive performance last week was defensive aided and probably a fluke.

Not only is there line value, but the Jets’ are a publicly backed underdog, which I love betting against, especially with the line dropping even as money goes on the Jets, which is one of the signs of a trap line. The odds makers seem to be playing off public overreaction, which I’m not going to fall into. On top of all this, Mike Tomlin is 15-9 ATS off a loss since taking over in 2007, while the Steelers’ in general are 23-15 ATS off a loss since 2004, when Ben Roethlisberger took over as starting quarterback (1-0 without him, 22-15 ATS with him), and they have covered in their last 8 such instances. The Steelers are one of my favorite plays of the week.

Public lean: NY Jets (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Pittsburgh covers)

Update: I’m not quite as confident in this pick as I was before. James Harrison was surprisingly ruled out for the 2nd straight week, while Troy Polamalu did not practice Friday. The latter is their single most important defensive player. The Jets, however, will also be without their most important defensive player as Darrelle Revis has been ruled out. Their chances of winning without him are pretty slim.

Pittsburgh Steelers 27 New York Jets 13

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh -6 (-105) 2 units

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Tennessee Titans at San Diego Chargers: Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 2 NFL Picks, Chargers, Titans

Tennessee Titans (0-1) at San Diego Chargers (1-0)

Never bet on the Chargers early in the season. Prior to last year, when the Chargers went 4-1 early against a cupcake schedule, the Chargers were 14-12 from weeks 1-6 under Philip Rivers and 41-11 (41-11!!!) from weeks 6-17. Including last year, they’re actually 3-7 ATS as favorites during the first 4 weeks of the season in the Philip Rivers era. Well, almost never. I bet on the Chargers last week because they were playing what I thought was an overrated Raiders team and I turned out to be right with that pick.

Still, the Chargers didn’t look good. If it wasn’t for an injury to the Raiders’ long snapper, they could have lost to a Raider team that I think is one of the worst in the league. That win reminded me of their 4-1 start last season. The Chargers were able to beat up on a cupcake schedule last year early, beating Minnesota by 7, Kansas City by 3, Miami by 10, and Denver (prebow) by 5. However, once they started playing real teams, things got a lot harder for them and they actually went on a 6 game losing streak.

The Titans are a real team. I picked them to make the playoffs before the season and I’m not changing that prediction. They had the league’s 8th ranked scoring defense last year, despite having 6 of 11 starters in their 3rd year or younger. That continued growth and maturity, as well as their cornerback depth, and the addition of Kamerion Wimbley and potential breakout of Derrick Morgan as much needed pass rushers would cancel out the loss of Cortland Finnegan.

Offensively, I felt they should continue to have one of the best passing blocking offensive lines, led by bookend tackles Michael Roos and David Stewart and I felt their run blocking would be better with Steve Hutchinson replacing Jake Scott at guard. Meanwhile, I felt Chris Johnson would be back to his old self. Chris Johnson averaged 3.0 YPC in his first 8 games last season after missing most of the offseason with a new coaching staff coming in and also getting out of shape. However, he averaged 4.8 YPC the rest of the way and put in a ton of work this offseason to get back into tip top shape, attending every single one of the Titans’ offseason activities, even the optional ones (OTAs) which he would normally skip in order to train at home in Orlando.

They also have Kenny Britt returning from injury. Britt missed 13 ½ games with injury last year, but he’s still only 24 (later this month) and the 2009 1st round pick has 56 catches for 1146 yards and 12 touchdowns in his last 13 full games. In 2010, when Britt was healthy (11 games) and Chris Johnson was still his old self, the Titans averaged 27.1 points per game in those 11 games. That number is a little skewed because the Titans had an unrealistically low yards per point ratio, but the point is, when they have all their offensive weapons, they can put points on the board.

Since then, Nate Washington and Jared Cook have broken out in Britt’s absence and the latter could be even better this year after catching 21 passes for 335 yards and a touchdown in his final 3 years last year. They also add 1st round pick Kendall Wright as a 3rd receiver. On top of that, they’ve made an obvious upgrade at quarterback going from Kerry Collins and Vince Young to Matt Hasselbeck and now to Jake Locker, who led them to 1.83 points per drive last year, as opposed to 1.63 points per drive for Hasselbeck (albiet in limited action). Basically, I felt the same way about the Titans that I did at that point last year about the Lions, who proved me right.

And you know what, none of that has really changed. The Titans just ran into the wrong team at the wrong time playing the Patriots last week. The Patriots might be the best team in the league. Jake Locker played well before leaving with injury and he should be back for this one, with Kenny Britt also returning to give them an added boost in the receiving corps. Locker should have another good game now that he has one start under his belt.

Defensively, there’s no shame in giving up 30+ points to the Patriots. Everyone does it pretty much. It doesn’t mean they have a bad defense. They should have a bounce back week this week against the Chargers. The Chargers still have Philip Rivers, but they’re incredibly banged up offensively. They’ll be probably be without top running back Ryan Matthews again, leaving Ronnie Brown and Curtis Brinkley to split carries. Neither of them did anything against the Raiders last week.

They’re also without Vincent Brown, their best receiver in Training Camp before his injury, leaving Philip Rivers with the overpaid Robert Meachem, who has a career high 45 catches despite playing 4 years with Drew Brees, and Malcom Floyd, an inconsistent receiver in his age 31 season who has caught 3 or fewer passes in 14 of his last 23 games, missing 9 games over the past 2 years. Antonio Gates will be his favorite target, unless the 32 year old, who has also missed 9 games over the past 2 years, gets hurt.

Finally, they’ll be without left tackle Jared Gaither once again, leaving undrafted rookie Mike Harris to start on the blind side again on a line already with major weaknesses at left guard and right tackle. Philip Rivers is an elite quarterback, but this might just be too much for him to handle. After all, despite being set up with great field position by 3 Raider special teams miscues, the Chargers managed just 22 points and got in the end zone just once against a Raider defense that ranked 29th in scoring last year and lost several key players this offseason. The Titans defense should be able to keep them in check.

The one thing I’m really worried about is Chris Johnson, especially since the Chargers’ run defense just did a great job on Darren McFadden last week. However, I’m not quite ready to give up on him and a lot of his problems are on the offensive line. The Titans replaced right guard LeRoy Harris with Jake Matthews late in the game and he played a little bit better. Matthews will continue to start this week, so maybe that will help. Playing anyone other than the Patriots’ great run defense will also help, no matter how good a job the Chargers did on McFadden last week.

I also believe this is what’s called a trap line. Trap lines are when odds makers want the public to bet one way or another so they make a “too good to be true” line. Typically when odds makers want you to do something, it’s a good idea not to do it. The two signs of a trap line are a suspiciously low line and a line that drops even though the majority of the public is betting it. Right now, about 85% of the money is on San Diego, yet the line has dropped from -7 when it opened (already suspiciously low) to -6 with juice. They really want us to bet San Diego. The odds makers seem to agree that Tennessee is overrated and San Diego is still the same old September Chargers. They’re not a bad group of guys to have agree with you. They’re not stupid. That’s why they make money every single year.

This is my pick of the week. The Titans looked bad last week because of who they played, but they’re still a solid team. The Chargers meanwhile, should never be bet on as favorites early in the season, especially not against a solid team. The Titans defense should continue to make the Chargers’ offense struggle, while Jake Locker and company should be able to move the ball against a Chargers defense that ranked 22nd in scoring last year and is overrated now because they held an overrated Raiders’ offense to 14 points when they were missing arguably their top receiver Denarius Moore. Covering Locker to Kenny Britt and the rest of these weapons will be a lot harder than covering Carson Palmer to Darrius Heyward-Bey and Rod Streater.

Public lean: San Diego (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Tennessee covers)

Tennessee Titans 27 San Diego 23 Upset Pick +230

Pick against spread: Tennessee +6 (-110) 5 units

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Baltimore Ravens at Philadelphia Eagles: Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 2 NFL Picks, Eagles, Ravens

Baltimore Ravens (1-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (1-0)

Before the season started, I identified 5 teams I thought were overrated and 5 I thought were underrated. The idea was to bet these teams (or against these teams) until I was proven wrong or until the odds makers caught up. It served me well last week. Of the 7 games involving these 10 teams, I nailed 5, including my pick of the week. I unfortunately went 3-6 on my other 9 to finish at .500 for the week ATS, but it’s good to see that my overrated/underrated choices seem to have been pretty accurate. I’ll try to use those this week, unless I feel the odds makers caught up, with two exceptions (San Francisco and Buffalo, two I got wrong last week).

Here, I don’t really feel the odds makers caught up and there’s a good reason for that. Baltimore got a blow out win last week, as I predicted they would, but they did it against Cincinnati. Cincinnati was one of my overrated teams as well, so the Ravens remain overrated because they blew out an overrated opponent. Cincinnati didn’t beat a single playoff team last year and has been hit by the injury bug as hard as maybe any team in football.

Then there’s the issue of Andy Dalton’s arm strength. Jay Gruden did a great job of scheming around his physical limitations last year, but you can only do that for so long. He struggled down the stretch last season, particularly against tougher opponents, and continued that in the preseason and in the opener against Baltimore, where he completed 22 of 37 for 221 yards and a pick. Those numbers don’t even tell the whole story. Only 80 of those 221 yards were in the air; the rest were after the catch. He settled for short stuff all night, completing just 4 passes that went more than 10 yards through the air (4 of 11) and his adjusted QB rating of 66.2 was 26th out of 32 starting quarterbacks in the NFL week 1.

Some interpret that game as the Ravens being better than people thought. I’m sticking with my original prediction that the Bengals are just worse than we thought. As for the Ravens, they seem to have an improved offense, but they lost several key contributors defensively and have several others aging and they have yet to prove to me that their struggles on the road and overall inconsistencies are gone. The latter is very important for this game. Yes, they blew out Cincinnati at home, but until they prove they can be consistent and win on the road, something they didn’t do last year, I’m going to continue to pick against them in those situations.

Last year, this team was 4-5 on the road, as opposed to 9-0 at home. They lost to Tennessee by 13, Jacksonville by 5, Seattle by 5, San Diego by 20, and New England by 3, while beating St. Louis by 30, Pittsburgh by 3, Cleveland by 10, and Cincinnati by 8. Only their near win in New England and their win in Pittsburgh were impressive road performances (maybe the blowout win over St. Louis, but they won just 2 games).

They also fell flat after big performances, losing to Seattle and Tennessee after beating Pittsburgh twice. They were just 3-5 SU on the road coming off a win last year. Normally, that wouldn’t trouble me, but they’re 13-17 SU in that situation since Harbaugh/Flacco came in back in 2008. It’s really weird for a team that’s 37-7 SU in all other situations.

This week, they’re coming off a big win, a coming out party of sorts on Monday Night Football, week 1, a blowout win over a divisional foe. However, they did the same thing last year week 1 and lost by 13 in Tennessee the next week. This year, they go to Philadelphia week 2. They are a much better team than Tennessee was last year.

Let’s go on to Philadelphia. I had them as slightly underrated going into the season. I had them making a big improvement over last season, but apparently so did everyone else. Their +68 points differential was best among non-playoff teams by a mile (San Diego was closest at +29). In fact, only 8 teams finished with a higher points differential, which means the Eagles played like a 10 or 11 win team last year, a win total they could have had if they had an average record in close games. Turnovers and records in games decided by less than 7 tend to average out on a year to year basis.

The Eagles had 38 turnovers last year. Teams that turn the ball over 35 times or more in a season have on average 9.7 fewer turnovers the next season and win on average 1.61 more games, since 2002. Add 1.61 wins to what this team’s points differential suggested their wins total should have been and you get an 11-12 win team. Since 2002, 42 teams have 35 or more turnovers and 36 have had 20 or fewer. The 42 teams who’ve had 35 or more turnovers have had 28.3 turnovers on average the next season. That’s only 2 turnovers more than the 26.3 that the 36 teams with 20 or fewer turnovers had the following season.

This year, they may be even more talented. However, the odds makers set their over/under at 10, one of only 9 teams with an over/under of 10 or more and the only non-playoff team in 2011. Because of that, they lost most of their “underratedness” and their week 1 line against Cleveland, -7.5 in Cleveland, was completely reasonable. There was no line value there.

This week, I think there is some line value. At the very least, these two teams are probably about even, so this line should be -3 or higher and that’s not taking into account Baltimore’s consistency and road issues from last season. The final score from last week’s game is a little misleading and skews this line a little, as does Baltimore’s blowout win over the secretly lowly Bengals. Yes, the Eagles did barely beat the Browns by 1 in Cleveland, but they outgained them 456 to 210.

So what happened? Well, the Eagles lost the turnover battle 5 to 4, which was a common problem for them last year and one that will have to get cleaned up. The other issue was just what the Browns did with those turnovers, as opposed to what the Eagles’ did. The Browns returned their 5 takeaways for 88 yards, while the Eagles managed just 13 yards on their 4 takeaways. Preventing the other team from getting a big gain or a score once they have the turnover is way more skill than luck. Even if the Eagles lose the turnover battle again this week, they could still win if they outgain the Ravens, so long as they don’t get killed with turnovers.

They may turn the ball over a couple of times, but so could the Ravens. The Eagles have one of the best defenses in the league. It wasn’t just the Browns’ offense making them look good. The biggest strength of the Eagles’ defense is their pass rush. They were tied for the league lead with 50 sacks last year, lead by 29 sacks from Trent Cole and Jason Babin combined, and could be even better this year as they add rotational rookies Fletcher Cox and Vinny Curry and return Brandon Graham from injury. They legitimately go 6 deep at defensive end with Cole, Babin, Graham, Curry, Darryl Tapp, and Phillip Hunt. For what it’s worth, I think they have 6 defensive ends better than Frostee Rucker, who starts at defensive end for the Eagles. They go 3 deep at defensive tackle with Cullen Jenkins, Derek Landri, and Cox. I think they might have the deepest defensive line in football.

Moving back on the Eagles defense, they added two much needed starters at linebacker this offseason, DeMeco Ryans and Mychal Kendricks. Though the latter is a 2nd round rookie, linebackers typically don’t take as long to transition to the NFL. Their secondary also makes a lot more sense this year than last year, even though they lost Asante Samuel. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie will no longer be playing on the slot, where he is such a poor fit. Heading into a contract year, DRC should be motivated and playing outside again will allow him to have a bounce back year. He really played well against the Browns.

Now on the slot is 4th round rookie Brandon Boykin. He might have been the top coverage cornerback in the draft after Morris Claiborne, but fell because of his lack of size and injury. He’s healthy now and his lack of size doesn’t matter much on the slot, where he figures to have a positive impact. Meanwhile, Nnamdi Asomugha will no longer be playing in zone coverage, like they had him in for the first 12 games of last season. Asomugha was a terrible fit in that scheme and played much better in their final 4 games once they allowed him to play man. He’s one of the top cornerbacks in the league in the right coverage scheme and it’s no coincidence they had the league’s best passing defense in their final 4 games once Asomugha started playing much better and that carries over into last week.

With DRC and Asomugha both playing like shutdown cornerbacks, they should be able to put the clamps on the Ravens’ new found explosive offense. They’ll certainly find it a lot tougher to move the ball in Philadelphia against the Eagles than they did at home against a Bengals team missing two key cornerbacks and their top pass rusher.

As for the Ravens’ defense, they’re still good, but they did allow 322 yards of offense to the Bengals, which is a cause for concern. Terrell Suggs is out and Jarret Johnson and Cory Redding, two key parts of their run defense last year, are gone. Young players have to play more than they’re used to and they didn’t play very well against the Bengals. On top of that, Ed Reed and Ray Lewis are aging. Unless the Eagles get killed in the turnover battle like they did so many times last year, they should be able to win this game at home and, as I mentioned earlier, turnover differentials can be very inconsistent on a year to year basis.

Public lean: Baltimore (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Philadelphia covers)

Philadelphia Eagles 31 Baltimore Ravens 17

Pick against spread: Philadelphia -2 (-110) 3 units

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Minnesota Vikings at Indianapolis Colts: Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 2 NFL Picks, Colts, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (1-0) at Indianapolis Colts (0-1)

Before the season started, I identified 5 teams I thought were overrated and 5 I thought were underrated. The idea was to bet these teams (or against these teams) until I was proven wrong or until the odds makers caught up. It served me well last week. Of the 7 games involving these 10 teams, I nailed 5, including my pick of the week. I unfortunately went 3-6 on my other 9 to finish at .500 for the week ATS, but it’s good to see that my overrated/underrated choices seem to have been pretty accurate. I’ll try to use those this week, unless I feel the odds makers caught up, with two exceptions (San Francisco and Buffalo, two I got wrong last week).

Here, I don’t really feel the odds makers caught up and there’s a good reason for that. Cincinnati got blown out last week, as I predicted they would, but they did it against Chicago. Chicago is also one of my underrated teams. In fact, I think they might be the best team in football. In 2010, they went 11-5 and made it to the NFC Championship game. In 2011, they started out 7-3 before injuries struck to Jay Cutler and Matt Forte. Cutler and Forte are back. Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery are in and both had great debuts. And their offensive line doesn’t look as overmatched as they did under Mike Martz, allowing Cutler to be pressured on just 11 of 37 drop backs. And then, of course, they still have one of the league’s better defenses.

There’s no shame in losing to the Bears in Chicago, even in blowout fashion. That doesn’t mean the Colts are going to have a terrible season. They’ll probably still get at least the 6 wins the Panthers got last year. Andrew Luck is the real deal; he just had a very tough test to start his career. They won’t make the playoffs or anything and Dwight Freeney is expected out for this contest, but, at the very least they’re not worse than the Vikings, who needed a late comeback to even beat the Jaguars in Minnesota. In Indianapolis, this line should be about -3 or -4 (3 points for home field advantage. Instead it’s +1.5. Ordinarily, I would think this could be a trap line, but the action is pretty equal on both sides. There’s just considerable line value with the Colts.

The Vikings don’t really deserve to be road dogs over anyone. I’ve mentioned before that teams that finished with 6 or fewer wins cover at about a 30% rate as favorites of 6 or more. Well, the Vikings aren’t favorites of 6 or more, but they’re road favorites of 1.5, which would translate to -7.5 in Minnesota. The trend isn’t as strong in this situation, but the logic is the same; they’re just not good enough to be favored on the road over anyone.

On top of that, this could be a seen as a breather contest for the Vikings, seeing as they have to go home and play the 49ers next week. The trend isn’t as strong as it is for sandwich games (favorites before AND after being dogs), but favorites before being dogs are 90-109 ATS since 2010 and 173-223 ATS since 2008. This makes sense. Teams can’t bring the same level of intensity every week in the NFL. It just doesn’t happen; that’s why upsets happen. Teams are typically flatter in easier games before tougher games.

This is one of my favorite plays of the week. I’m pretty confident that Luck will get his first NFL win here at home against a Minnesota defense that just made Blaine Gabbert look like a functional NFL quarterback. Instead of putting 4 units on the spread +1.5 (-110) and one on the money line at +110, I’m putting all 5 on the money line. 1 point games account for about 2% of games in the NFL, so it’s just not worth the extra +20 to protection against a 1 point Minnesota win.

Public lean: Minnesota (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Indianapolis covers)

Indianapolis Colts 27 Minnesota Vikings 20 Upset Pick +110 5 units

Pick against spread: Indianapolis +1.5 (-110) 0 units

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