Month: September 2012

Jaguars rule out Daryl Smith, Derek Cox

stevenlourie Jaguars, News

The Jaguars will not only be without Maurice Jones-Drew full strength against the Vikings, as they’re going to limit him to 3rd down work only about a week after a return from suspension, but they will be missing two key defensive players, Daryl Smith and Derek Cox. Smith was ProFootballFocus’ 2nd ranked outside linebacker last season, only behind Von Miller, while Derek Cox was a real shutdown cornerback in limited action in his 3rd year in the league last year, before going out with injuries.

Cox, a surprise 3rd round pick in the 2009 NFL Draft, didn’t play well as a starter in either 2009 or 2010, but was awesome to start the season last year. He allowed just 9 completions on 28 attempts (32.1%) for 105 yards (3.8 YPA), no touchdowns, and no interceptions, while deflecting 3 passes and being penalized once. His 44.5 QB rating would have been 2nd in the league had he had enough snaps to qualify. If he can stay healthy and keep that up over an entire season, he’ll emerge as one of the top cornerbacks in the league, but those are pretty big ifs, especially now that he’s missing this game.

Both Smith and Cox missing this game will make things even harder on the Jaguars travelling to Minnesota. The Vikings will also be without star running back Adrian Peterson in his usual capacity, but he’s not as big a part of their offense as MJD, who accounted for 47.7% of the Jaguars yards from scrimmage last year, most since OJ Simpson in 1974. The Vikings also have the superior 2nd year quarterback. In the 9 games in which Ponder led the team in passing attempts, the team scored 22.9 points per game, which would have been 16th in the league last season.

The Vikings’ back 7 is pretty bad in coverage, which is why they ranked 30th against the pass, allowing 8.1 YPA last year, despite 50 sacks. However, Blaine Gabbert really struggles with pressure in his face and the Vikings can pressure the quarterback as well as any team in the league. Gabbert ranked 2nd worst in the NFL with a 52.9% accuracy percentage under pressure (discounts drops, throw aways, spikes, batted passes, and hit as throwns) and worst in the NFL taking a sack on 26.1% of his pressured drop backs.

Unless he is a dramatically different quarterback in the face of pressure from last year to this year, he doesn’t figure to be able to take advantage of Minnesota’s poor back 7 in coverage. The Vikings 6th ranked run defense from 2011 should be able to stop Jennings and the Jaguars will have trouble moving the football. Ponder, meanwhile, won’t against a Jacksonville defense missing Smith and Cox.

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Chargers’ Ryan Matthews won’t play week 1, sets sights on week 2

stevenlourie Chargers, News

He did some work in practice this week, but Ryan Mathews has been officially ruled out by the Chargers’ coaching staff for their Monday Night game against the Oakland Raiders. Mathews said of the situation “the next game, that’s what I’m looking for now. I don’t know about the team, but me personally, now I’m looking for that game against Tennessee.” Since he did some practice this week, it sounds like he’ll be able to go next week, which would be right in the middle of the 4-6 week prognosis he was given after the August 9th injury.

In his absence, the Chargers will use a trio of Ronnie Brown, Curtis Brinkley, and Le’Ron McClain and though none of those backs stand out and it initially sounded like they would split carries and cancel each other out in fantasy, it now sounds like Brown will be the lead back. Norv Turner loves using feature backs and he seems to like Brown, saying of him that he will be “very involved.” Brown isn’t a very talented back, heading into his age 31 season after averaging just 3.2 YPC last season, but he’ll get volume yardage and the Raiders had the league’s worst run defense last year, so he’s startable in fantasy.

He’s obviously a downgrade from Mathews though and for a Chargers’ offense missing left tackle Jared Gaither and wide receiver Vincent Brown already, Philip Rivers has his work cut out for him, even against the Raiders’ terrible defense. The Raiders have enough offensive firepower and the crowd will be crazy in Oakland for a rare Monday night home game so the Chargers will need to avoid their annual early season funk or they could lose. More likely, I think the Chargers beat the Raiders in unimpressive fashion the way they beat teams similar caliber teams like Minnesota, Kansas City, Miami, and Denver last year, to start 4-1.

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Colts expect Austin Collie to be a game time decision

stevenlourie Colts, News

Austin Collie suffered his 4th concussion in 21 months last month, but it was of the minor variety and he’s been practicing all week. However, he has yet to be cleared to participate in game action and if he isn’t by game time tomorrow, he won’t be allowed to play so it sounds like he’ll be a game time decision and even that might be optimistic. You obviously want to be cautious for this type of injury, even minor ones, and he won’t be cleared unless he’s definitely able to go, so it doesn’t sound like he will be. He sounds like a pretty good bet for week 2 though since he’s been practicing. Reggie Wayne will get a bump in fantasy this week, even against Chicago’s stout passing defense, while the rest of Indianapolis’ receiving corps is off limits. Either Donnie Avery or 3rd round rookie TY Hilton would get the start in place of Collie.

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Beanie Wells injures hamstring in practice, Cardinals list him as questionable

stevenlourie Cardinals, News

The Cardinals, unfortunately, had to update their injury report to including Beanie Wells after he hurt his hamstring in Friday’s practice. He is listed as questionable and will probably be a game time decision. Wells certainly has an injury history and missed most of this offseason with knee problems, so this is not a good sign as he tries to hold off the now healthy 2011 2nd round pick Ryan Williams, who outplayed him in the preseason, for the starting running back job.

If Wells can’t go, Williams will see the bulk of the carries against Seattle and he’s probably the superior back so they might not miss Wells much. If Williams were to get the start, he’d be fantasy startable, even with a tough matchup. The problem is that this game is a 4 o’clock start and since it’s a game time decision, owners of Wells and Williams probably won’t know until many of the alternatives have already started. If you start Wells and he doesn’t play, your options to replace him will be limited, and vice versa if you start Williams and Wells does play. The Seahawks have a very stout run defense, 4th in the league last year, so it’s advisable to stay away from Arizona’s backfield this week.

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Texans expect Arian Foster, Brooks Reed to be a game time decision

stevenlourie News, Texans

No team is a bigger favorite this week than the Texans, who are 12 point favorites at home over the Miami Dolphins. This is with good reason. The Texans won 10 games and made it to the AFC’s divisional round, despite Andre Johnson missing 9 games and Matt Schaub missing the final 7, including playoffs (they were 8-3 and had the league’s best Pythagorean Expectation when he went down). The Dolphins, meanwhile, won just 6 games last year and are starting a raw quarterback in Ryan Tannehill, who has 19 collegiate starts. They also traded away their only good wide receiver Brandon Marshall this offseason and have some problems on the offensive line. Defensively, they switched schemes to one that several of their key players don’t fit as well (Jared Odrick, Paul Soliai, and possibly Cameron Wake) and traded away their #1 cornerback, Vontae Davis, to the Colts.

However, the Texans could be without 2 key contributors when they face Miami as Arian Foster and Brooks Reed both injured themselves in practice this week. They’ll both be game time decisions. These are obviously both big losses, as Arian Foster has rushed for 2840 yards and 23 touchdowns on 605 carries over the last two seasons, while catching 119 passes for 1221 yards and another 4 scores. Brooks Reed, meanwhile, had a very strong rookie year last year, with 10 sacks, 6 quarterback hits, and 26 quarterback pressures on 471 pass rush snaps, good for an 8.9% rate. He also played the run very well.

However, the Texans may hold both out against such a weak opponent, rather than risk further injury. Besides, they have the depth to make up for it. The Texans used a 1st round pick on a rush linebacker in Whitney Mercilus, who I thought was the draft class’ best pure pass rusher. He’d step into the lineup for Reed. Meanwhile, #2 running back Ben Tate rushed for 942 yards and 4 touchdowns on 175 carries last season, including 398 yards and 2 scores on 82 carries in 4 starts in Foster’s absence last season. This is a 1 o’clock start game season fantasy owners of Foster and Tate will know whether or not to start their back before the deadline for rosters to be set.

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Seahawks expect Marshawn Lynch to be a game time decision

stevenlourie News, Seahawks

Marshawn Lynch escaped suspension, at least for now, after being arrested for DUI this offseason, but he could still miss week 1 after his back spasms flared up again. A recurring injury, they cost Lynch one game last season and limited him throughout the preseason. If he can’t go, Robert Turbin, a 4th round rookie, would get the start.

The Seahawks need him out there, even against the lowly Cardinals. The Seahawks have a below average receiving corps and are pretty weak on the offensive line and, as good as Russell Wilson looked in the preseason, it’s important to remember that he’s still a 3rd round rookie making his 1st career start. They’re also a poor road team, going 11-31 on the road since 2007, so they shouldn’t take the Cardinals lightly in Arizona, even as bad as their quarterbacks looked this preseason. The Cardinals, like the Seahawks, have a good young defense and might be able to pull the upset at home, especially if Lynch misses the game.

As for fantasy football, this is unfortunately a 4 o’clock game so if Lynch can’t go, your options will be limited to replace him. It’s recommended that all Lynch owners pick up Robert Turbin if he’s available. Not only would Turbin get the start if Lynch, who has an inconsistent history, misses any time this year, Turbin will eat into Lynch’s carries a little even if he’s healthy. The Seahawks really like the 4th round rookie and figure to run the ball a lot this year, supported by a strong defense, with a mobile rookie quarterback under center with a poor receiving corps.

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Browns expect Trent Richardson to start, but may limit his carries

stevenlourie Browns, News

Trent Richardson had 2 knee surgeries this offseason, including one just about a month ago, but he’s still expected to start this week against the Eagles. However, the Browns may limit his carries after he was limited in practice all week. Montario Hardesty will be the beneficiary of Richardson ceding any carries on early downs, while 3rd down specialist Brandon Jackson will continue to serve in that role.

Still, it’s not a good sign that he’s had two surgeries and rookie running backs have trouble adjusting to the 16 game workload of the NFL historically anyway. 1st round pick running backs have averaged just 165 carries as rookies since 2007. Richardson will probably exceed that number, but I’m not all that hopeful, at least for his rookie year, especially on an offense that figures to be stagnant with so many rookies and 2nd year players playing big roles (6 of 11 offensive starters are in their 1st or 2nd year and that doesn’t include Josh Gordon and Jordan Cameron, who could be starters eventually and Travis Benjamin, who will start the season as their slot receiver). For this week, he’s a borderline starter in fantasy leagues, especially since Philadelphia has the potential offensively to make Cleveland have to abandon the run early.

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Steelers’ rule James Harrison, Rashard Mendenhall out for week 1

stevenlourie News, Steelers

The Steelers will attempt to get revenge on the Broncos’ for last year’s playoff defeat this week. While a lot of the focus will be on Peyton Manning as he attempts to return from injury, the Steelers have some injuries of their own. Right guard David DeCastro could be out for the season with a torn MCL. Running back Isaac Redman is expected to be limited, possibly all year, by groin, hip, and ankle injuries. Safety Ryan Clark will miss this game, as he does all games in Denver, because of a genetic disorder that makes it unsafe for him to do extreme physical activities in high altitude (he had to have his spleen and gall bladder removed following a game in Denver several years ago and hasn’t played there since).

Along with Clark, two other players will miss this game. Rashard Mendenhall was surprisingly activated off the active/PUP list a couple of weeks ago, even though everyone, even GM Kevin Colbert, believed he’d begin the season on that list and miss the first 6 weeks. Though he practiced in limited bits this week, he won’t play this week and still might not play until after their week 4 bye, which was the team’s prognosis after activating him. This week, Redman will start, but, even though he has just 22 career carries, Jonathan Dwyer, now finally in shape, might be their best option.

James Harrison, meanwhile, was expected to play this week after having knee surgery last month, but apparently had a setback so he won’t go. Jason Worilds will start in his absence. Worilds did his best Harrison impression, at least as a pass rusher, with 3 sacks, 7 quarterback hits, and 20 quarterback pressures on 204 pass rush snaps last year with Harrison missing some time, a very impressive rate of 14.7%.

The Steelers have had a top-3 scoring defense 6 times since 2004 an had the league’s #1 scoring defense last year despite just 15 turnovers and a bunch of injuries. They should have better health defensively this season (although this isn’t a great start) and they should have more turnovers. Since 2002, 38 teams have had 20 or fewer takeaways in a season. Those teams had, on average, 7.53 more takeaways and won 1.41 more games the following season. They’ll still prove to be a very tough test for Peyton Manning in his first start back from injury. They won’t let him ease back into regular season action.

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Panthers expect Jonathan Stewart to be a game time decision

stevenlourie News, Panthers

Jonathan Stewart sprained his ankle in the Panthers’ final preseason game over a week ago, but even though it wasn’t a high ankle sprain, Stewart still did not practice all week and will be a game time decision for their game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This is especially frustrating for Stewart’s fantasy owners, because it’s a 4 o’clock start instead of a 1 o’clock start, meaning your options will be much more limited if you put him in your lineup and he’s ruled out before the game.

Stewart normally plays through minor injuries (as injury prone as his reputation would make him seem, he’s missed just 2 of 64 career games) and that’s why he’s a game time decision without practicing. However, the Panthers have plenty of other running backs and can definitely get away with starting DeAngelo Williams, with “fullback” Mike Tolbert as his primary backup this week, so they may shut Stewart down and try to preserve him for the rest of the season.

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Lions to be without Louis Delmas, Chris Houston against Rams

stevenlourie Lions, News

The Lions had one of the worst defenses in the league last year, allowing 24.2 points per game, good for 23rd in the NFL. Their awful passing defense was a big part of that and things aren’t going to be much better this season, especially not week 1. Having lost starter Eric Wright to the Buccaneers in free agency alright this offseason and cutting his replacement Aaron Berry for off the field issues, the Lions will now be without Louis Delmas and Chris Houston against the Rams this week, their only two remaining competent starters.

This leaves Jacob Lacey, Bill Bentley, John Wendling, and Erik Coleman starting in the secondary for the Lions, with Drayton Florence operating as the nickel back. Lacey struggled as a starter in Indianapolis last year. Bentley is a 3rd round rookie. John Wendling is a career journeyman backup and Coleman is a veteran who has been a backup in Atlanta over the last few seasons. Florence, meanwhile, was cut twice this offseason, first by the Bills and then by the Broncos, who made him a final cut. He’s only been with the Lions about a week.

The Lions have a ferocious pass rush, but even that won’t make this secondary look very good. Sam Bradford might not be the best quarterback, but this is about as easy of a matchup as he’ll get and with Steven Jackson by his side, the Rams should be able to run effectively on a Lions’ defense that ranked 30th on the ground last year. That will help the Rams move the football and take some off the pressure off an underrated offensive line in pass protection. The Lions, meanwhile, will have their explosive offense limited by the Rams equally good defensive line, against a decent Lions’ offensive line, and the Rams’ significantly superior secondary.  There’s a chance the Rams could pull out this victory.

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