Month: September 2012

Vikings expect Adrian Peterson to play, but will limit his carries

stevenlourie News, Vikings

The Vikings and the Jaguars have two of the best running backs in the NFL, Adrian Peterson and Maurice Jones-Drew. However, when those two teams meet in Minnesota this week, neither of those two aforementioned backs figure to have much of an impact. Maurice Jones-Drew will be limited to 3rd down work about a week after returning from his 38 day holdout, while Adrian Peterson is about 9 months removed from a torn ACL. The Vikings expect him to play, but he’ll be limited to a backup role behind capable back Toby Gerhart until he gets his legs back under him.

Adrian Peterson’s speedy recovery from such a severe injury is impressive, but maybe not even surprising from someone like Peterson and it’s not unprecedented either. Wes Welker returned for week 1 from a similar injury for the 2010 season after just 8 months. However, it’s worth noting that Welker was not his normal self that year. He caught just 86 passes for 848 yards, both his lowest totals in his 5 year career with the New England Patriots. It’s unrealistic to expect Peterson to be his normal self until at least the 2nd half of the season (Welker’s 2nd half stats were much better as he caught 42 passes for 493 yards), if at all this season.

For that reason and others, it’s a bit head scratching why the Vikings are bringing him back so soon. Toby Gerhart is a capable runner who should be able to carry the load until Peterson is fully healthy and truly ready to play and the Vikings probably aren’t going to be competitive this year either way. This is a team built for the future and Peterson, still only 27, is expected to be a big part of it. They can’t afford to risk him reinjuring himself. Besides, he still has about 28 million guaranteed on his contract after the season as his massive extension just kicked in. They want to make sure they get the most out of that money.

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Jaguars will limit Maurice Jones-Drew to 3rd down work this week

stevenlourie Jaguars, News

Maurice Jones-Drew has returned from his holdout and will suit up for the Jaguars this week, but anyone expecting him to be worth a fantasy start is going to be severely disappointed. According to Head Coach Mike Mularkey, Rashad Jennings, who was named the week 1 starter before MJD returned, will handle most of the early down work, limiting Maurice Jones-Drew to 3rd down work.

When asked about whether Jennings would carry the load or not, Mularkey said, “That’s kind of the way the system works, yes,” referring to having the starter do most of the early down work and having his primary backup handle 3rd downs. It’s how he handled things in Pittsburgh and Atlanta and it’s how he’ll handle things in Jacksonville. Once MJD regains his starting job, he’ll be the beneficiary of the system and handle most of the early down work, but until then, he’ll see very few carries and it’ll limit his fantasy potential severely against a Minnesota run defense that ranked 6th in the league last year.

This is probably the smart move because Jennings showed himself to be a solid back during the preseason and MJD’s situation has so many similarities to Chris Johnson’s last year, down to when they reported, the situation with new coaching staffs coming in, and their usage in the past 3 years, that I would be skeptical about his ability to carry the load early in the season. Chris Johnson averaged 3.0 YPC last season in the first 8 games, before showing his old form and averaging 4.8 YPC in the final 8.

Nonetheless, the Jaguars will be hurt offensively be the lack of the 2011 form of MJD early in the season. Jennings is a nice back and MJD at less than 100% is not too bad, but MJD had 47.7% of the team’s yards from scrimmage last season, most by any non-quarterback since OJ Simpson in 1974. Any improvements Blaine Gabbert and the passing game made this offseason should be nullified by their relative “struggles” on the ground.

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Chiefs’ Derrick Johnson, Brandon Flowers, Jovan Belcher all expected to be game time decisions

stevenlourie Chiefs, News

Already missing top pass rusher Tamba Hali with suspension, the Chiefs have 3 other defensive starters who will be game time decisions this week against the Falcons. Hali’s loss is probably going to be the biggest as he’s been their only consistent pass rusher over the past 3 years (though 2nd year player Justin Houston looked great down the stretch in 7 starts last year). However, his loss won’t be the only significant one.

Flowers been a top-8 cornerback on ProFootballFocus in each of the last 3 seasons, something only Champ Bailey and Darrelle Revis can also say. Last year was his worst year as he ranked 8th and though he did play really well, he also surrendered some big plays. He allowed 46 completions on 86 attempts (53.5%) for 667 yards (7.8 YPA), 8 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, while deflecting 8 passes and committing 5 penalties. Johnson, meanwhile, was ProFootballFocus’ 4th rated middle linebacker last year and Jovan Belcher is a talented two-down run stuffer at middle linebacker.

All of these injuries and potential injuries will make it very hard for the Chiefs to win this week. Their game plan is based on playing good defense, running the ball well, and making live easy for limited quarterback Matt Cassel. Missing so many key guys, it’ll be tough for them to play good defense against an Atlanta offense that looked very good in the preseason, backing up what many people felt before the preseason, that Matt Ryan and company were about to make the leap with Julio Jones, Roddy White, and Tony Gonzalez. That’s going to make it tough for the Chiefs to follow their conservative game plan and will force Matt Cassel to have to do more than they would like.

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Bengals expect to be without Carlos Dunlap, Jason Allen, Dre Kirkpatrick and Bernard Scott

stevenlourie Bengals, News

The regular season has not yet begun, but the injuries have started piling up for the Bengals. After putting two starters on the offensive line on IR before the season, Travelle Wharton and Kyle Cook (though the latter can be reactivated later this season), the Bengals are expected to be without 4 key contributors with injury for their week 1 battle with the Baltimore Ravens as Carlos Dunlap, Jason Allen, Dre Kirkpatrick, and Bernard Scott are all expected to miss.

Kirkpatrick’s and Allen’s absence will force Nate Clements, in his age 33 season, to start opposite Leon Hall. Hall, meanwhile, probably won’t be 100% just 10 months after tearing his Achilles. Including playoffs, they allowed 23.8 points per game in their final 9 games without Hall, as opposed to 17.5 points per game in their first 8 games with Hall last season. Obviously having him 100% would be a huge boost for them, but I can’t see him being 100%, at least not this week.

Dunlap’s absence hurts because the Bengals already lost Frostee Rucker and Jonathan Fanene as free agents this offseason. They love rotation on the defensive line and those two were key parts of that rotation. They’ll be replaced by the mediocre Jamaal Anderson and Devon Still, a 2nd round rookie playing out of position. With Dunlap miss this game, that means that Anderson will have to will the top reserve behind Michael Johnson and Robert Geathers, two decent, but unspectacular players.

Dunlap was spectacular last year. In fact, was one of the best pass rushers in the league last year. Dunlap managed 5 sacks, 13 quarterback hits, and 29 quarterback pressures, on 302 pass rush snaps, a pass rush rate of 15.6%.  Given their troubles in the secondary, the Bengals have to get pass rush to have any chance of stopping the Ravens’ passing attack, but I don’t think that will happen.

Meanwhile, Bernard Scott’s absence means that BenJarvus Green-Ellis will have the carry the load against Baltimore’s stout run defense. BJGE is good at running through holes and not fumbling, but he averaged just 3.7 YPC last year and ranked just 61st out of 67 eligible backs in yards after contact per carry with 2.0. That was in New England, with Tom Brady making life easy for the running backs. Andy Dalton is not Tom Brady, so BJGE will find very little running room, especially with the Bengals missing two starting interior offensive lineman against a great run defense like the Bengals’. The Bengals will have a lot of trouble running the ball this week.

All of these injuries definitely hurt for a Bengals team that didn’t beat a single playoff team last year (0-8, including playoffs). Andy Dalton regressed as last season went on and especially struggled against playoff teams and that regression appeared to continue during the preseason. Against a Baltimore team that beat them twice last year, en route to 12 victories, they’re going to have a tough time. The Ravens also were 9-0 last year at home in Baltimore, where this game is played, including playoffs.

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Suspensions in Saints’ bounty scandal overturned

stevenlourie News, Saints

In possibly the most shocking story of the offseason, with two days to go before their season opener against the Redskins, the Saints found out yesterday that the players suspended in their bounty scandal would be reinstated as the suspensions were overturned by an appeals court. The coaches and front office members who were originally suspended will still be suspended, but the appeals court determined that the NFL did not have enough evidence to suspend the players, in what has to be one of the biggest challenges to his authority in Roger Goodell’s tenure as NFL Commissioner. Goodell and the rest of the NFL front office will now have to come up with sufficient evidence to suspend the players allegedly involved, if they chose to continue to try to discipline those players they believe are guilty of wrongdoing.

While this is obviously a huge moral victory for the players, especially Jonathan Vilma, the most vocal protestor of the suspensions and a player who was set to miss the entire season with suspension, the timing is still bittersweet. Vilma has been away from the team for most of the offseason with a new defensive coaching staff coming in, has been replaced by free agents David Hawthorne and Curtis Lofton, and has had 3 knee surgeries since November, so he’s not only in no position to make any kind of early season impact, but he’s no longer really needed by the team.

The Saints placed Vilma, a declining 30 year old player, on the reserve/PUP list, which means he’ll have to sit out at least the first 6 games of the season. He’ll get to collect game checks, which he wouldn’t have ordinarily been able to, but his chances of making any positive impact for the Saints this season is pretty limited. ProFootballFocus’ 51st ranked middle linebacker out of 53 in 2011, Vilma is owed 5.9 million next season and, after taking a pay cut just to stay on the roster this season, this year might be his last in a Saints uniform, if he even plays at all. Still with a stigma attached to his name, whether the allegations are true or not, it’ll be interesting to see if he would get any interest on the open market as a 31 year old next offseason.

As for Will Smith, he was only going to be suspended for 4 games, so he’s been practicing with the team and does have a chance to suit up for the Saints this weekend. Smith wasn’t great last season, with 7 sacks, 7 quarterback hits, and 34 quarterback pressures on 630 pass rush snaps, including playoffs, a respectable, but not great 9.2% pass rush rate, but this team was the league’s worst rated pass rushing team last season in terms of pass rush productivity (sacks + .75 hits + .75 pressures/total pass rush snaps). They may have had 33 sacks, not a terrible number, but they blitzed more than any team in the league to do even that. With Smith, Junior Galette, a talented situational pass rusher last season, 2nd year player Cameron Jordan, and defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, who is great with pass rushers, the Saints may have enough to take advantage of a Redskins offensive line that looked terrible in the preseason and ranked 28th in pass blocking efficiency last season.

Anthony Hargrove, another suspended player, is currently not on a roster after being cut by the Packers last month, while Scott Fujita is the only formerly suspended player currently on a roster other than the Saints’. Fujita was set to miss the first 3 games of the season and has not practiced all week, but the Browns may start him out of desperation. Missing starter Chris Gocong and top reserve James-Michael Johnson, the Browns were originally going to start undrafted rookie LJ Fort and career backup and special teamer Kaluka Maiava at 2 of their 3 linebacker spot this week, which would have put them at a major disadvantage against a tough matchup in the Eagles.

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Redskins won’t name starting running back

stevenlourie Commanders, News

Redskins’ Head Coach Mike Shanahan loves a murky running back situation. He loves his opponents not to know what kind of back they’ll have to game plan against and he loves to be able to switch running backs depending on the matchup. It’s a smart football philosophy, but it creates a wasteland in fantasy leagues. Alfred Morris, Evan Royster, and Roy Helu all will probably start at some point this season and not just that, any of those 3 could start this week. I’d also be willing to be bet that a running back not currently on the Redskins’ roster (Steve Slaton? Tim Hightower? Ryan Torain?) will get a start for the team this season.

Shanahan has one of his murkiest running back situations ever this season. Not only do we not know who the starter will be, as Shanahan refused to name one publicly, preferring to “keep them guessing,” the players themselves don’t seem to know either. Evan Royster, one of the candidates, says “I think they’re going to keep us pretty much in the dark until probably the day before the game.” That may be a smoke screen, but former Redskin Chris Cooley, who has no reason to lie on behalf of the organization that cut him last month, says that he didn’t know who the starter would be last season on a weekly basis.

Cooley recounts a story to CBS Washington about last season saying “I walked up to Torain in the locker room and said, ‘Dude, you’re starting on my fantasy team this week. And I’m hoping for a big week. I’m playing my wife,’ and he’s like, ‘Oh, cool man. Yeah, I’ll see what I can do.” Roy Helu started and totaled 141 yards. “I’m in the locker room and I don’t know who’s starting,” Cooley continued. “So, it’s kind of a mix up and I’m not exactly sure what we’re doing or who’s going in.”

The signs would point to Alfred Morris getting the start. The Washington Post believes he’s the “probable” starter according to “several people with knowledge of the situation.” Morris got the start in the 3rd week of the preseason and those are normally the week 1 starters barring injury. He impressed, rushing for 107 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries. Morris also did not play the following week, when Shanahan rested his starters. Both Royster and Helu did play.

Though Morris is technically listed as the 3rd string back behind Royster and Helu, it’s really anyone’s job and Morris’ performance in the 3rd preseason game would suggest he’s the “hot hand,” and offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan said they’d be going with that approach this season. It’s definitely not ideal to be starting any of these backs in fantasy this week as two of them won’t see much work, but if you have to start one, Morris seems like the guy. Whoever starts has a nice matchup against a New Orleans run defense that ranked 29th last season and Robert Griffin’s running ability will open things up for the starting running back on the ground, much in the way Michael Vick does for LeSean McCoy, Vince Young once did for Chris Johnson, and Tim Tebow once did for Willis McGahee. Whoever starts is a RB2/Flex, but it’s risky.

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Arizona Cardinals extend MLB Daryl Washington

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Off-Season, Cardinals, Offseason Moves 2012

Washington was Arizona’s leader in tackles last season and graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 10th ranked middle linebacker, grading out above average against the run, in coverage, and as a blitzer, adding 6 sacks, 5 quarterback hits, and 19 quarterback pressures. Heading into his 3rd year in the league, he has a good chance to make his first Pro Bowl in 2012. Washington, a 2010 2nd round pick, still had 2 years left on his rookie contract, but, with no players of note heading into contract years, the Cardinals decided to lock him up now.

I’m not normally a fan of when teams give players a new deal after just 2 years in the league and they’re also overpaying him a little bit. He’s getting an extra 32 million of new money over an extra 4 years, though no word yet on the guaranteed money amount. Similar caliber players like Curtis Lofton, Stephen Tulloch, and David Hawthorne got 27.5 million, 25.5 million, and 19 million respectively over 5 years. In a passing league, non-rush linebackers like Washington just aren’t worth that much, with rare exceptions.

Look at the deal Patrick Willis got 2 years ago. Willis got 7 years, 53.51 million with 29 million guaranteed. Washington is getting more yearly than him and he’s only played 2 years and never been a Pro-Bowler. The Cardinals are taking a big risk here projecting that Washington will continue to improve and jump from above average to elite. With 2 years left on his rookie deal, there was no real reason to make this move now. Make him prove it first.

Grade: C

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St. Louis Rams extend MLB James Laurinaitis

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Off-Season, Offseason Moves 2012, Rams

James Laurinaitis is a very talented linebacker. A 2009 2nd round pick, he has graded out positively overall over the past 3 years as a starter and ranked 14th overall among middle linebackers in 2010 on ProFootballFocus. He’s managed 100+ tackles in each of his first 3 years in the league, good for a combined 376 tackles, a whopping 310 of which were solo. Heading into the final year of his rookie deal, the Rams were known to be working on a long term extension with Laurinaitis and agreed to terms with him today on a 5 year, 41.5 million dollar extension with 23.5 million of that guaranteed.

The issue is that middle linebackers just didn’t get paid that much money this offseason or even historically really. Curtis Lofton, Stephen Tulloch, and David Hawthorne got 27.5 million, 25.5 million, and 19 million respectively over 5 years. Laurinaitis gets 41.5 million, with a whopping 23.5 million guaranteed. Is Laurinaitis really that much better of a player than those guys? In a passing league, that is just too much money for a non-rush linebacker, with rare exceptions. Look at the deal Patrick Willis got 2 years ago. Willis got 7 years, 53.51 million with 29 million guaranteed. That’s less money per year than Laurinaitis. Willis did get more years and more guaranteed money, but he’s a significantly superior player.

The only recent deal that compares to this one is the 5 year, 42.5 million dollar deal to the Browns gave to D’Qwell Jackson this offseason and that deal looked pretty bad at the time too and even worse when guys like Lofton, Tulloch, and Hawthorne got significantly less. Jackson also got just 10.4 million guaranteed. Laurinaitis’ deal is worse because of the larger amount of guaranteed money and because the Rams had 3 deals to similar caliber players to use as a reference point. The Rams simply overrated Laurinaitis, paying him on the level of Patrick Willis, whereas the Browns’ mistake was just signing Jackson too quickly and not letting the market set the price.

The Rams were smart to lock up Laurinaitis now because the franchise tag value is inflated for linebackers because of rush linebackers, so the Rams would have probably had to guarantee Laurinaitis upwards of 9 million in 2013 if they tagged him (the tag was worth 8.8 million for linebackers this season). That wouldn’t have been a realistic option. However, giving Laurinaitis over 8 million per season over 5 years, with more than half of that being guaranteed, is not much of a better option. In fact, it may even be worse because it’s for a longer period of time.

Grade: C

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Blue Chip/Red Chip (Defense)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Off-Season, Blue/Red Chips

Every year, Michael Lombardi at NFL Network does a list of “blue chips” and “red chips,” meaning the top 5 players at each position, “blue chips” and then players 6-10, “red chips.” Normally, this is a pretty good list, although this year I had some major disagreements, especially the placement of Red Bryant as a blue chip defensive end when he has 2 career sacks in 5 seasons. I don’t care how good you are at stopping the run. Defensive ends get paid to get to the quarterback (in addition to stopping the run). If you can’t get to the quarterback, you’re not a blue chip. You’re not even a red chip. If a player was a great pass rusher and couldn’t stop the run, I would feel similarly (although in a passing league, I prefer the one dimensional pass rushers over the one dimensional run stuffers). Anyway, here’s Lombardi’s list on defense. And below is mine for the defense.

DT

Blue Chips

Geno Atkins (CIN)

Jay Ratliff (DAL)

Kevin Williams (MIN)

Haloti Ngata (BAL)

Sione Pouha (NYJ)

Red Chips

Richard Seymour (OAK)

Cullen Jenkins (PHI)

Alan Branch (SEA)

Marcell Dareus (BUF)

Kyle Williams (BUF)

Notes

These are 3-4 nose tackles, 4-3 defensive tackles, but not 3-4 defensive ends.

DE

Blue Chips

Justin Smith (SF)

Jared Allen (MIN)

Jason Pierre Paul (NYG)

Julius Peppers (CHI)

Cameron Wake (MIA)

Red Chips

Calais Campbell (ARZ)

Trent Cole (PHI)

Ray McDonald (SF)

Mario Williams (BUF)

Jason Babin (PHI)

OLB

Blue Chips

DeMarcus Ware (DAL)

Von Miller (DEN)

Clay Matthews (GB)

Aldon Smith (SF)

Tamba Hali (KC)

Red Chips

James Harrison (PIT)

Brian Orakpo (WAS)

Terrell Suggs (BAL)

LaMarr Woodley (PIT)

Daryl Smith (JAC)

MLB

Blue Chips

Patrick Willis (SF)

Brian Cushing (HOU)

Derrick Johnson (KC)

Ray Lewis (BAL)

NaVorro Bowman (SF)

Red Chips

Stephen Tulloch (DET)

Lawrence Timmons (PIT)

London Fletcher (WAS)

Brian Urlacher (CHI)

Paul Posluszny (JAC)

CB

Blue Chips

Darrelle Revis (NYJ)

Brent Grimes (ATL)

Cortland Finnegan (STL)

Lardarius Webb (BAL)

Brandon Flowers (KC)

Red Chips

Brandon Carr (DAL)

Ike Taylor (PIT)

Asante Samuel (ATL)

Nnamdi Asomugha (PHI)

Leon Hall (CIN)

S

Blue Chips

Troy Polamalu (PIT)

Ed Reed (BAL)

Eric Weddle (SD)

Adrian Wilson (ARZ)

Jarius Byrd (BUF)

Red Chips

Earl Thomas (SEA)

Michael Griffin (TEN)

Kam Chancellor (SEA)

Kenny Phillips (NYG)

Tyvon Branch (OAK)

HC

Blue Chips

Bill Belichick (NE)

Mike Tomlin (PIT)

Mike McCarthy (GB)

Tom Coughlin (NYG)

Jim Harbaugh (SF)

Red Chips

Pete Carroll (SEA)

Sean Payton (NO)

Andy Reid (PHI)

John Harbaugh (BAL)

Jim Schwartz (DET)

Notes

Notice, 4 of the 5 blue chippers have won Super Bowls. The only Super Bowl winning coach not in there is Sean Payton, who is suspended for the season.

Jim Harbaugh takes the spot of Payton, winning out over long time coach Andy Reid. Reid has had a great career, but doesn’t have a ring and Harbaugh has a better chance of getting one in his coaching career than Reid.

Click here for offense

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Blue Chip/Red Chip (Offense)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Off-Season, Blue/Red Chips

Every year, Michael Lombardi at NFL Network does a list of “blue chips” and “red chips,” meaning the top 5 players at each position, “blue chips” and then players 6-10, “red chips.” Normally, this is a pretty good list, although this year I had some major disagreements, especially the placement of Red Bryant as a blue chip defensive end when he has 2 career sacks in 5 seasons. I don’t care how good you are at stopping the run. Defensive ends get paid to get to the quarterback (in addition to stopping the run). If you can’t get to the quarterback, you’re not a blue chip. You’re not even a red chip. If a player was a great pass rusher and couldn’t stop the run, I would feel similarly (although in a passing league, I prefer the one dimensional pass rushers over the one dimensional run stuffers). Anyway, here’s Lombardi’s list on offense. And below is mine for the offense.

QB

Blue Chips

Tom Brady (NE)

Aaron Rodgers (GB)

Drew Brees (NO)

Eli Manning (NYG)

Ben Roethlisberger (PIT)

Red Chips

Peyton Manning (DEN)

Matt Stafford (DET)

Phillip Rivers (SD)

Cam Newton (CAR)

Matt Ryan (ATL)

Notes

Peyton Manning would be a blue chip if healthy.

If this list were 11 players, which I wish it was, Romo would be a red chip. That might have been my toughest cut (Matt Ryan over Romo).

Ben Roethlisberger gets the edge over Philip Rivers because Roethlisberger is not coming off his worst year as a starter.

Matt Stafford and Cam Newton played like blue chip players last year, but I need to see them do it again.

RB

Blue Chips

Adrian Peterson (MIN)

Maurice Jones Drew (JAC)

Arian Foster (HOU)

Ray Rice (BAL)

LeSean McCoy (PHI)

Red Chips

Matt Forte (CHI)

Chris Johnson (TEN)

Marshawn Lynch (SEA)

Fred Jackson (BUF)

Jamaal Charles (KC)

Notes

If there were a better option than Adrian Peterson, he wouldn’t have been a blue chip, but Chris Johnson is coming off a down year, Jamaal Charles, Matt Forte, and Fred Jackson are all coming off injuries, and Marshawn Lynch has had the type of up and down career that makes me need to see him do it again.

WR

Blue Chips

Calvin Johnson (DET)

Larry Fitzgerald (ARZ)

Julio Jones (ATL)

AJ Green (CIN)

Andre Johnson (HOU)

Red Chips

Wes Welker (NE)

Hakeem Nicks (NYG)

Dwayne Bowe (KC)

Steve Smith (CAR)

Greg Jennings (GB)

Victor Cruz (NYG)

Antonio Brown (PIT)

Brandon Marshall (CHI)

Dez Bryant (DAL)

Jordy Nelson (GB)

Notes

Like Lombardi, I do 15 receivers. It’s a very deep position. I could have gone 20 and not have really been reaching for guys (Mike Wallace, Percy Harvin, Marques Colston, Steve Johnson, Roddy White).

The position may be deep, but it’s light on top level guys. Megatron and Fitzgerald are the only “sure thing” blue chippers. The other three are two 2nd year receivers with huge upsides and a former “sure thing” guy who is a little older and had some injury issues last year.

Wes Welker and Victor Cruz aren’t blue chippers for different reasons. Welker is a very scheme specific player, while Cruz needs to show me it once more.

If there’s one red chipper I’d predict to make the leap to blue chipper this year it’s Dez Bryant.

If there’s one player not listed here, in fact not even in my top-20, that could be a blue chipper at this point next year it’s Torrey Smith.

TE

Blue Chips

Rob Gronkowski (NE)

Jimmy Graham (NO)

Vernon Davis (SF)

Jason Witten (DAL)

Antonio Gates (SD)

Red Chips

Jermichael Finley (GB)

Aaron Hernandez (NE)

Fred Davis (WAS)

Dustin Keller (NYJ)

Heath Miller (PIT)

Notes

Hernandez isn’t a blue chipper because he doesn’t block like the 5 guys in the blue chip category do, but if he improves his receiving total again, he’ll be hard to leave out next year.

Fred Davis and Jermichael Finley both have blue chip upside. Finley just needs to become more consistent and improve his focus, while Davis needs to get through a 16 game season.

OT

Blue Chips

Joe Thomas (CLE)

Jake Long (MIA)

Andrew Whitworth (CIN)

Michael Roos (TEN)

Duane Brown (HOU)

Red Chips

Eugene Monroe (JAC)

Jordan Gross (CAR)

Tyron Smith (DAL)

Bryan Bulaga (GB)

D’Brickashaw Ferguson (NYJ)

Notes

The fact that Whitworth, Roos, and Brown have made one combined Pro-Bowl is everything that’s wrong with the Pro-Bowl. How the hell are common fans supposed to pick the best offensive linemen. Only those with access with advanced data can do that accurately. Whitworth, Ross, and Brown are all among the top-5 tackles in the league.

Ferguson would have been in the blue chip category, but he had a slightly off year last year.

Two right tackles make the list, Tyron Smith and Bryan Bulaga. A lot of teams can go after you with more than one pass rusher now, so right tackle is becoming more and more of an important position. Smith will move to the left side this year, while Bulaga will remain as one of the top right tackles in the league.

G

Blue Chips

Jahri Evans (NO)

Carl Nicks (TB)

Marshal Yanda (BAL)

Josh Sitton (GB)

Logan Mankins (NE)

Red Chips

Evan Mathis (PHI)

Ben Grubbs (NO)

Andy Levitre (BUF)

Mike Iupati (SF)

Steve Hutchinson (MIN)

Notes

Evan Mathis might have been the best offensive lineman in the league last year, regardless of position, but he wasn’t really anyone before he came to Philadelphia and met Howard Mudd, so I need to see it from him once more.

Mike Iupati has all the potential to be a blue chipper at this point next year.

Going the opposite way is Hutchinson, once a blue chipper, he’s now 35. He’ll have a positive impact on Tennessee’s offensive line though.

C

Blue Chips

Chris Myers (HOU)

Nick Mangold (NYJ)

Scott Wells (STL)

John Sullivan (MIN)

Ryan Kalil (CAR)

Red Chips

Jeff Saturday (GB)

Eric Wood (BUF)

Alex Mack (CLE)

Matt Birk (BAL)

Nick Hardwick (SD)

Notes

If Eric Wood had made it through all 16 games last year, he’d be a blue chipper. He might have been the best center in the league before he got hurt.

After all these guys, Jeff Saturday and Matt Birk are still getting it done. Their careers are coming to a close though.

John Sullivan used to be a mediocre center, but was one of the best in the league last year. If there was another option, I’d put him in the red chip group and make him prove it again, but there really wasn’t.

Click here for defense

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