Month: September 2012

2007 NFL Draft Redo

stevenlourie NFL Draft Redos

1. Oakland Raiders- WR Calvin Johnson (Georgia Tech)

Hmm…Calvin Johnson or JaMarcus Russell? Calvin Johnson or JaMarcus Russell? The Raiders obviously would have liked to have been able to get a franchise quarterback here because that was a huge need and such an important position, but there simply wasn’t one available. Look at the list of quarterbacks drafted in 2007. JaMarcus Russell, Brady Quinn, Kevin Kolb, John Beck, Drew Stanton, Trent Edwards, Isaiah Stanback, Jeff Rowe, Troy Smith, Jordan Palmer, Tyler Thigpen and Matt Moore went undrafted. Yikes! I’m sure the Raiders wouldn’t mind Megatron though, the best available player.

2. Detroit Lions- OT Joe Thomas (Wisconsin)

The Lions miss out on Megatron, but Joe Thomas is not a bad consolation prize. He’s been one of the best offensive linemen in the league since he was drafted and would have been a huge help for a Lions team that surrendered 63 sacks in 2006, 2nd most in the NFL.

3. Cleveland Browns- RB Adrian Peterson (Oklahoma)

Like the Lions, the Browns miss out on a stud player, but Adrian Peterson is not a bad replacement. Reuben Droughns averaged 3.4 YPC as their starting running back in 2006 and while they added Jamal Lewis in free agency, he was at the tail end of his career and you can’t really pass on Peterson here.

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- CB Darrelle Revis (Pittsburgh)

The Buccaneers had the league’s 23rd ranked pass defense in 2006. Think Darrelle Revis would have cleaned that up? Revis is part of a 2007 NFL Draft class loaded on elite talent.

5. Arizona Cardinals- MLB Patrick Willis (Mississippi)

How loaded is the 2007 NFL Draft class on talent? Patrick Willis goes 5th. Willis is one of the league’s top 2 or 3 middle linebackers, if he isn’t the best and only goes below the other 4 because he doesn’t play a premium position. I don’t think the Cardinals would really care that much about that at this point as they steal an elite player from a division rival.

6. Washington Redskins- DE LaMarr Woodley (Michigan)

The Redskins had a league worst 19 sacks in 2006. There are some questions about how LaMarr Woodley would do in a 4-3 (he’s spent his entire career in Pittsburgh’s 3-4) and about how he would do without so many talented players around him, but the Redskins have to take that risk at this point. Besides, they would eventually switch to a 3-4 defense a few seasons later.

7. Minnesota Vikings- WR Dwayne Bowe (LSU)

No Adrian Peterson available for the Vikings, but they get a legitimate #1 receiver, which they really needed. Their top 3 leading receivers in 2006 were Travis Taylor, who left as a free agent, 3rd down back Mewelde Moore, and rookie receiver Troy Williamson, who would never have a better season than his mediocre rookie year. It’s no surprise that the Vikings were lead in receiving in 2007 by Bobby Wade and Sidney Rice, a 2nd round rookie. Bowe would have been better for the Vikings in the 1st than Rice would have been in the 2nd.

8. Atlanta Falcons- DE Charles Johnson (Georgia)

Right position, but wrong player. The Falcons needed another pass rusher, but the problem is that Jamaal Anderson, who they used this pick on, couldn’t get to the quarterback. Instead they grab Charles Johnson and steal him from a division rival. Johnson would have gone higher if he weren’t a late bloomer.

9. Miami Dolphins- S Eric Weddle (Utah)

The Ted Ginn pick is one of the worst picks I’ve ever seen. Not just because Ginn didn’t do anything of note for the Dolphins, but it was so predictable that he would never do anything of note. Teams reach for guys fairly often in the top-10 and get a ton of criticism, but the Ginn case was one where every word of criticism turned out to be right. Instead, they take Eric Weddle here, arguably the league’s best safety now with Reed and Polamalu aging. No defensive back has allowed a lower QB rating in the last 4 seasons than the 25.8 that Weddle allowed last year, as he allowed 40.7% completion, 4.1 YPA, and 1 touchdown to 7 interceptions. I told you this class was loaded on elite talent. Unfortunately, it drops off a cliff pretty soon.

10. Houston Texans- CB Leon Hall (Michigan)

Houston had the league’s 24th rated pass defense in 2006, a trend that would continue really up until this last offseason, when the Texans signed Johnathan Joseph. Adding Hall would have definitely helped the problem sooner.

11. San Francisco 49ers- MLB Lawrence Timmons (Florida State)

The 49ers lose out on Patrick Willis, but Lawrence Timmons, ProFootballFocus’ #1 middle linebacker in 2010, isn’t a bad consolation prize for a team who had a need at that position.

12. Buffalo Bills- G Marshal Yanda (Iowa)

The Bills allowed 47 sacks in 2006. Marshal Yanda, one of the league’s best guards, would have definitely helped. He can also play right tackle. On top of being an upgrade in pass protection, Yanda would have helped a running game that ranked 28th in 2006.

13. St. Louis Rams- MLB Jon Beason (Miami)

The Rams haven’t had good linebacker play in a while. Will Witherspoon was very solid in 2006, but their next 4 leading tackles were two safeties, a cornerback, and a defensive end, before you get to Brandon Chillar, who had just 57 tackles. He left after the 2007 season to sign in Green Bay anyway.

14. New York Jets- MLB David Harris (Michigan)

David Harris has become a big part of the Jets strong defense since they drafted him in the 2nd round. Unfortunately, they miss out on Darrelle Revis here, but they are able to lock up their talented middle linebacker with a 1st rounder.

15. Pittsburgh Steelers- C Ryan Kalil (USC)

Interior offensive linemen rarely go this high, but that’s because, if they don’t become Pro Bowlers, they’re pretty much disappointments as top-20 picks. If a center drafted in the top-20 becomes just a solid starter, it’s a disappointment because you can find solid starting centers much later. At other positions like cornerback, wide receiver, left tackle etc, it’s not as big of a deal if they’re just solid. That being said, Ryan Kalil is a 3-time Pro Bowler and really has been one of the league’s best interior offensive linemen over the past few years so there’s no doubt he deserves to go this high looking back in hindsight. The Steelers have needed offensive line help for years. Kalil would solidify their pass protection and anchor their running game.

16. Green Bay Packers- DT Ray McDonald (Florida)

McDonald would have gone higher if he hadn’t been a late bloomer, but McDonald broke out as an elite 3-4 defensive end last year, ranking 3rd at his position on ProFootballFocus. His collegiate position was defensive tackle, where he’d be originally for the Packers, though they eventually switched to a 3-4 so he’d play end in that scheme. He’s definitely better than Justin Harrell, their original pick.

17. Denver Broncos- MLB Paul Posluszny (Penn State)

Al Wilson, the Broncos’ middle linebacker and leading tackler in 2006, retired following the season. Posluszny can be his replacement and fits the range as part of a very talented middle linebacker class.

18. Cincinnati Bengals- RB Marshawn Lynch (California)

Rudi Johnson averaged just 3.8 YPC as the feature back in 2006. He averaged just 2.9 YPC the following season and was benched for Kenny Watson in 2007, who managed just 13 career carries after 2007. Lynch has had an inconsistent career, but would have really helped their running back problems.

19. Tennessee Titans- S Michael Griffin (Texas)

This pick stays the same. Michael Griffin hasn’t been the best safety in the league or anything, but he’s been an above average starter on their defense and recently received a 5 year, 35 million dollar extension this offseason after being slapped with the franchise tag.

20. New York Giants- RB Ahmad Bradshaw (Marshall)

Bradshaw was a 7th round pick of the Giants’ in 2007 and has been worth way more than his draft slot. Unfortunately, they aren’t able to get him there in a redo, but they use their 1st rounder to keep him. This isn’t a huge loss because Aaron Ross, their original pick here, was not very good.

21. Jacksonville Jaguars- WR Sidney Rice (South Carolina)

The Jaguars leading receivers in 2007 were Reggie Williams, Dennis Northcutt, and Ernest Wilford. They’ve had wide receiver problems for a while. Sidney Rice only has one season of more than 32 catches for 484 yards in 5 years, but he’s worth the risk here. In 2009, he caught 83 passes for 1312 yards and 8 touchdowns, but has been plagued by injuries since.

22. Cleveland Browns- OT Joe Staley (Central Michigan)

The Browns lose out on Joe Thomas at #3, so they grab a replacement left tackle here instead. Staley is obviously not on Thomas’ level, but he’s a solid left tackle and a good value here at 22 for a Browns team that surrendered 54 sacks in 2006.

23. Kansas City Chiefs- OT Jared Gaither (Maryland)

The Chiefs allowed 41 sacks in 2006. Gaither would have gone higher if not for his injury issues, but in 2008 and 2009 he was one of the best offensive tackles in the league and, still young, he still has a chance to turn his career around. The Chiefs had Gaither for a half season in 2011, before giving up on the injury riddled player, who rebounded by playing very well for the Chargers for 5 games and landing a large contract. Of course now he’s hurt again.

24. New England Patriots – MLB Desmond Bishop (California)

Tedy Bruschi and Junior Seau were heading into the twilights of their careers at this point. Bruschi, heading into his age 34 season, had two more years left, while Seau, heading into his age 38 season, had 3 more left and only one as a starter. Bishop was a late bloomer. Otherwise, he would have gone higher. However, he’s a perfect fit in New England, where he would have had time to develop behind established starters.

25. Carolina Panthers- G Ben Grubbs (Auburn)

The Panthers miss out on Ryan Kalil in the 2nd round, but Grubbs is another good interior offensive lineman for a team that needed help there and he fits the range. He’s also a typical John Fox pick as the conservative Fox loves to build in the trenches and on the ground.

26. Dallas Cowboys- RLB Anthony Spencer (Purdue)

Believe it or not, Spencer has proven to be worth this pick. Spencer takes a lot of heat for never exceeding 6 sacks in a season despite being a 1st round pick in 2007 and having DeMarcus Ware opposite him, taking away the defensive pressure. However, that number doesn’t tell the whole story. Spencer also had 9 quarterback hits and 35 quarterback pressures last year and leads all edge rushers in tackles over the last 3 seasons. For his efforts last year, he was a top-10 player at his position on ProFootballFocus and only James Harrison graded out better against the run. I don’t know if he was worth the franchise tag this offseason, but he’s a valuable member of the Cowboys’ defense.

27. New Orleans Saints- DT Brandon Mebane (California)

The Saints ranked 31st against the run in 2006, so defensive tackle was an obvious need. Brandon Mebane is a solid player who fits the range and would fill the hole. This draft class is really starting to fall off a cliff.

28. San Francisco 49ers- OT Jermon Bushrod (Towson)

The 49ers originally used this pick on Joe Staley. He’s not available, so they need another left tackle. Jermon Bushrod is an overrated player who Drew Brees makes look better than he is. Brees has only taken a sack 82 times in the last 4 years on 674 pressured drop backs (12.2%), the best rate in the league over that period by a quarterback who has played in all 4 seasons (sorry, Peyton Manning). A deeper look at Bushrod’s stats shows that he is really a product of Drew Brees’ abilities. Bushrod has allowed 20 quarterback hits and 90 quarterback pressures in the last 2 seasons, yet only 7 sacks. He is really a replacement level player disguised as a Pro-Bowler with the help of his quarterback. However, the 49ers will take him at this point in the draft.

29. Baltimore Ravens- WR Robert Meachem (Tennessee)

The Ravens used a 3rd round pick on a wide receiver, Yamon Figurs, so it was obviously a need. Meachem isn’t a great receiver, but he’s the best left and this draft class has really fallen off a cliff talent wise.

30. San Diego Chargers- OT Doug Free (Northern Illinois)

Ugh, yeah Doug Free goes in the 1st round. He’s a solid offensive tackle with the ability to play both on the left and right side. AJ Smith has only used one draft pick higher than the 3rd on an offensive lineman in his tenure in San Diego and it’s really started to show over the past few years. He’d be an upgrade over Jeromey Clary, who has been starting at right tackle for the Chargers for a while, even though he isn’t very good.

31. Chicago Bears- TE Greg Olsen (Miami)

In a weak draft class, the Bears will make this pick again. Olsen was a solid tight end for them for a few years and then got them a 3rd round pick in the 2012 NFL Draft last offseason, which isn’t too bad. This pick is worth a 2012 3rd rounder and 196 catches for 1981 yards and 20 touchdowns over 4 seasons from a tight end, at least in this thin draft class.

32. Indianapolis Colts- DT Alan Branch (Michigan)

The Colts had the league’s worst run defense in 2006. Branch was a bust as a 2nd round pick in Arizona, but emerged as one of the best defensive tackles in the league last year in Seattle, especially against the run. I guess that’s worth this pick from a team who needs a run stuffer.

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2006 NFL Draft Redo

stevenlourie NFL Draft Redos

1. Houston Texans- DE Mario Williams (NC State)

Normally if there’s a franchise quarterback available, I would put him #1 because those guys are just so valuable, and there is one available this year, Jay Cutler. However, the Texans got Matt Schaub the following offseason and things worked out pretty well for them with this original pick. Mario Williams proved the Texans right and established himself as one of the league’s premier pass rushers, which is another very valuable thing.

2. New Orleans Saints- RB Maurice Jones-Drew (UCLA)

Again, I’m not putting Cutler here because the Saints signed Drew Brees this offseason. The Saints used this pick on Reggie Bush, but even though that didn’t really work out, things worked out pretty well for the Saints. Can you imagine if they had taken Maurice Jones-Drew instead? Is it possible to score 40 points per game?

3. Tennessee Titans- QB Jay Cutler (Vanderbilt)

Here’s where Cutler goes. The Titans picked Vince Young here. He had some good moments with the Titans, but also some bad moments and, overall, his tenure in Tennessee was a failure. Things would have worked out a lot better if they had taken the local kid, Cutler, from in state Vanderbilt. Cutler is the only true franchise quarterback in this draft class and is one of the top 12-15 quarterbacks in the league. Those guys are so valuable because they can mask so many different problems and it’s impossible to win a Super Bowl without one.

4. New York Jets- OT D’Brickashaw Ferguson (Virginia)

This pick worked out pretty well for the Jets. Ferguson proved himself to be one of the better left tackles in the league and, other than quarterback, no position is more valuable. There is a reason why the franchise tag for offensive linemen is normally the 2nd highest in the NFL after quarterback and why you rarely see franchise caliber left tackles on the open market, only behind quarterbacks in frequency.

5. Green Bay Packers- DE Tamba Hali (Penn State)

The Packers had just 35 sacks in 2005 and besides, how could you pass on Tamba Hali here? Hali has emerged as one of the best pass rushers in the league and has experience in both the 3-4 and 4-3, both of which the Packers have run since 2006, so he’d be a perfect fit for them.

6. San Francisco 49ers- OT Andrew Whitworth (LSU)

I have no idea how Andrew Whitworth has never made a Pro Bowl. He’s one of the most underrated players in the league and has been a legitimate franchise caliber left tackle on Cincinnati’s offensive line over the past few years. The 49ers allowed 48 sacks in 2005, 5th most in the NFL. They attempted to fix the problem the following draft by trading up for Joe Staley, but, while Staley has been solid on the left side for them, Whitworth is a much better player. Besides, this way they would have been able to keep their 1st round pick in 2008 (#7), which they surrendered to move up for Staley.

7. Oakland Raiders- CB Johnathan Joseph (South Carolina)

Oakland had the league’s 26th rated pass defense in 2005. They attempted to fix that by drafting safety Michael Huff at this pick. He’s been alright, but he hasn’t really been worth a top-10 pick. Joseph is worth one and would have solved the problem more directly.

8. Buffalo Bills- DT Haloti Ngata (Oregon)

Buffalo had the league’s 29th rated run defense in 2005. Haloti Ngata sure would have fixed that problem. In Baltimore’s hybrid 3-4/4-3 scheme, he has experience in both of the schemes the Bills have run since 2006, so he’s a perfect fit for them, on top of filling a need and being the best available player.

9. Detroit Lions- DE Elvis Dumervil (Louisville)

The Lions’ defense was so bad for so many years because they simply ignored it in the early rounds in the Matt Millen era. Just one of Millen’s eight 1st round picks was a defensive player (Ernie Sims). I guess drafting crappy receivers was more important. If they got a do-over, they’d probably have drafted more defensive players, like Elvis Dumervil, who definitely would have helped a pass rush that managed just 31 sacks in 2005.

10. Arizona Cardinals- G Jahri Evans (Bloomsburg)

Interior offensive lineman rarely go this high, but that’s because, if they don’t become Pro Bowlers, they’re pretty much disappointments as top-20 picks. If a guard drafted in the top-20 becomes just a solid starter, it’s a disappointment because you can find solid starting guards much later. At other positions like cornerback, wide receiver, left tackle etc, it’s not as big of a deal if they’re just solid. That being said, Jahri Evans is a 3-time Pro Bowler and really has been one of the league’s best interior offensive lineman over the past few years so there’s no doubt he deserves to go this high looking back in hindsight. The Cardinals have needed offensive line help in a big way for years.

11. Denver Broncos- WR Greg Jennings (Western Michigan)

Jennings doesn’t go in the top-10 because you have to wonder how he’d do without Aaron Rodgers or Brett Favre throwing him the football. The Broncos’ top two receivers in 2005 were Rod Smith and Ashley Lelie. Smith was heading into his age 36 season in 2006 and caught just 52 passes for 512 yards and 3 touchdowns before retiring at the end of the season. Lelie, meanwhile, left as a free agent during the 2006 offseason.

12. Baltimore Ravens- NT Kyle Williams (LSU)

The Ravens miss out on Haloti Ngata, but they get Kyle Williams instead. Williams was ProFootballFocus’ top rated defensive tackle in 2010 and only goes below Ngata because he was a bit of a late bloomer and because he hasn’t had the consistent success that Ngata has had. Maybe that would have been different in a defense surrounded by Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs, and Ed Reed, among others.

13. Cleveland Browns- WR Brandon Marshall (Central Florida)

The Browns had lost #1 receiver Antonio Bryant during the offseason and needed a complimentary young receiver opposite Braylon Edwards, who didn’t exactly turn out as they planned. Marshall would have turned out how they planned Edwards to turn out though and given the Browns a much needed #1 receiver, something they’ve lacked for years.

14. Philadelphia Eagles- CB Brent Grimes (Shippensburg)

The Eagles had the league’s 23rd ranked pass defense in 2005. Brent Grimes would have gone higher, but he was a bit of a late bloomer. There’s no doubt that the Shippensburg product is one of the top cornerbacks in the league now though. He was just given the Falcons’ franchise tag this offseason at a position with a franchise tag value tied for 2nd highest in the league.

15. St. Louis Rams- WR Marques Colston (Hofstra)

The Rams haven’t had good receivers since the days of Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt. That once dynamic duo was heading into their age 34 and age 30 seasons respectively in 2006, so Colston would be some young talent for them to have waiting in the wings. Like Jennings, he doesn’t go higher because you have to wonder how he would have done without Drew Brees.

16. Miami Dolphins- TE Vernon Davis (Maryland)

This is a more appropriate place for Davis. Davis has become one of the better tight ends in the league, but he’s still just a tight end. Those guys are not really worth top-10 picks. Randy McMichael, a decent tight end, left the Dolphins after the 2006 season and left them starting Justin Peelle at tight end. He caught 29 passes for 228 yards and 2 touchdowns. After him, it’s been Anthony Fasano, who hasn’t been much better, at least as a pass catcher.

17. Minnesota Vikings- MLB Stephen Tulloch (NC State)

The Vikings took a linebacker here. Chad Greenway has been a solid player for them, but I think Tulloch is a better player because, unlike Greenway, he doesn’t struggle in coverage. He’d be a great fit for their cover 2 scheme, which requires linebackers be able to cover. He could have either played outside in Greenway’s spot, or inside and moved EJ Henderson outside.

18. Dallas Cowboys- MLB DeMeco Ryans (Alabama)

The Cowboys took a linebacker here. Bobby Carpenter really sucked. Here’s someone who doesn’t suck to fill a hole for the Cowboys in the middle of their linebacking corps.

19. San Diego Chargers- WR Miles Austin (Monmouth)

Keenan McCardell and Eric Parker were their top two wide receivers in 2005. Both left after the 2006 season. Vincent Jackson stepped up in their absence, but they could have used another receiver like Austin, especially since it would have allowed them to avoid to Buster Davis disaster in the 1st round of the 2007 NFL Draft. Austin goes below the other receivers because he was a late bloomer.

20. Kansas City Chiefs- DE Kamerion Wimbley (Florida State)

The Chiefs chose Tamba Hali here. That was a great pick, but he’s gone in this redo. However, they need to take some sort of pass rusher because Hali has been their only good pass rusher since and if they don’t replace him, they’ll really have trouble getting to the quarterback for years. Wimbley isn’t on Hali’s level, but he fits the range.

21. New England Patriots- RB DeAngelo Williams (Memphis)

The Patriots used this pick on Laurence Maroney. That didn’t work out. DeAngelo Williams would have worked out much better and made the Patriots’ offense even more explosive, which was obviously the goal with Maroney.

22. San Francisco 49ers- CB Tramon Williams (Louisiana Tech)

Tramon Williams upgrades a defense that ranked dead last against the pass in 2005. He has the talent to go earlier, especially after his 2010 season, but he was a late bloomer and is currently dealing with nerve damage in his shoulder that really limited him in 2011. We’ll see if he’s healthier and bounces back in 2012.

23. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- OT Donald Penn (Utah State)

The Buccaneers got Donald Penn as an undrafted free agent and he turned into a legitimate left tackle for them. They wouldn’t be able to get him there again, so they just use their 1st round pick to secure a big part of their offense.

24. Cincinnati Bengals- CB Antonio Cromartie (Florida State)

The Bengals originally used this pick on Johnathan Joseph, but he’s not available unfortunately. Instead, they just take the best available cornerback to fill the void.

25. Pittsburgh Steelers- C Nick Mangold (Ohio State)

The Steelers have needed offensive line help for years. Besides, it’s a steal to get Mangold at this point. The league’s top center, Mangold would solidify their pass protection and anchor their running game.

26. Buffalo Bills- OLB Chad Greenway (Iowa)

Greenway goes off the board here and is an upgrade on the outside for a Buffalo defense that was using some scrub named Jeff Posey at one outside linebacker spot in 2005. No wonder they ranked 29th against the run.

27. Carolina Panthers- OT Eric Winston (Miami)

The Panthers had a need on the right side of their offensive line in 2006. Winston would have filled it and allowed them to continue the run heavy offense that Head Coach John Fox loves. They took right tackle Rashad Butler in the 3rd round.

28. Jacksonville Jaguars- DE Jeremy Mincey (Florida)

The Jaguars got to the quarterback 35 times in 2005 and have really struggled to get to the quarterback over the past few years. Mincey was a 6th round pick of the Jaguars’ in 2006, but I’m sure they wouldn’t mind taking him again with a 1st rounder in a redo since he’s their only proven pass rusher at the moment. He would have gone higher, but he was a late bloomer.

29. New York Jets- S Michael Huff (Texas)

This is a more appropriate spot for Michael Huff. He’s a solid safety, but he just wasn’t worth a top-10 pick. The Jets have had safety issues for years and even though this was a huge need in 2006, this is a best available player pick. The Jets also used a 3rd round pick on Eric Smith, a safety.

30. Indianapolis Colts- OLB D’Qwell Jackson (Maryland)

Another best available player pick, Jackson would have fit in with the Colts defense at linebacker. He would have gone higher if it weren’t for injury issues. The Colts used a 3rd rounder on a linebacker in 2006.

31. Seattle Seahawks- CB Tim Jennings (Georgia)

The Seahawks used this pick on Kelly Jennings, a cornerback. They had the right idea. They needed a cornerback. They just took the wrong Jennings. Tim is one of the best underrated cornerbacks in the league and was one of just two starting cornerbacks to not allow a touchdown last season.

32. New York Giants- OLB Mathias Kiwunaka (Boston College)

I don’t imagine the Giants have any complaints about this pick. Kiwanuka has been a solid starting linebacker and situational pass rusher for them.

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2005 NFL Draft Redo

stevenlourie NFL Draft Redos

1. San Francisco 49ers- QB Aaron Rodgers (California)

This is a no brainer. I don’t care how much 49ers fans might like Alex Smith now. They’d all do this move in a heartbeat.

2. Miami Dolphins- RLB DeMarcus Ware (Troy)

The Dolphins used a 2nd round pick on Matt Roth so pass rush was obviously a need for them. And even if it wasn’t, how could they pass on DeMarcus Ware?

3. Cleveland Browns- DE Trent Cole (Cincinnati)

Pass rushers typically go early off the board and Trent Cole, however underrated he may be, has been one of the best pass rushers in the league since being selected in 2005. In his 7 year NFL career, he has 68 sacks, including 63 in the last 6 seasons. He has 4 seasons of double digit sacks and hasn’t gone under 8 sacks since his rookie year. He’s been one of ProFootballFocus’ top 3 defensive ends in each of the last 4 seasons, the only player who can say that, and one of the top 2 players in each of the last 3 seasons. The Browns managed just 32 sacks in 2004, so they could have really used a pass rusher like Cole.

4. Chicago Bears- OT Michael Roos (Eastern Washington)

No team allowed more sacks in 2004 than the Bears, who allowed 66. It’s not like things are any better now. Roos is one of the most underrated players in the league, as well, as a legitimate franchise left tackle. These guys do not grow on trees and they are rarely available through trade or free agency. That’s why this position so often goes high in drafts.

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- DE Justin Tuck (Notre Dame)

Sticking with the quarterback/pass rusher/left tackle theme because these positions are the ones most often drafted early in drafts and because this class seems to be loaded on them. The Buccaneers did have 45 sacks in 2004, but Simeon Rice only had one more year of double digit sacks in him before combined for 3 in 2006 and 2007, while the 8 sacks Greg Spires had in 2004 at age 30 proved to be a career high. Besides, how do you pass on Justin Tuck in this situation?

6. Tennessee Titans- DE Cameron Wake (Penn State)

Yet another great pass rusher. The only reason Wake isn’t higher is because he was a late bloomer. I still don’t understand how a player this talented was able to go undrafted and slip through the cracks despite playing at such a prominent football program in Penn State. Wake has ranked 4th and 1st at his position on ProFootballFocus in the last 2 seasons after posting a ridiculous 20.4 pass rush efficiency rate as a situational player in 2009 (no edge rusher else had one higher than 16.0 and no one who played as many snaps as he did had one higher than 14.1). In 2008, he was the CFL’s Defensive Player of the Year. The Titans managed just 32 sacks in 2004.

7. Minnesota Vikings- WR Roddy White (UAB)

The Vikings clearly felt they needed a wide receiver to replace Randy Moss, who had been traded in the 2005 offseason before the draft. The problem was they drafted the wrong one. Troy Williamson had 87 catches in his career. Roddy White has exceeded 83 catches in each of the last 5 seasons.

8. Arizona Cardinals- OT David Stewart (Mississippi State)

Another great player at a position of high value, David Stewart has been a right tackle his whole career in Tennessee opposite Michael Roos (how did Tennessee did up with both of those guys in the same draft?), but he’s been one of the best at his position and has the talent to potentially be a franchise left tackle if he ever had to. Even as a “mere” elite right tackle, he’s worth this pick for the Cardinals. They weren’t particularly awful in pass protection in 2004, allowing 39 sacks, but the Cardinals have had trouble protecting the quarterback for years and it’s tough to pass on someone like Stewart here.

9. Washington Redskins- WR Vincent Jackson (Northern Colorado)

The Redskins lost their top two receivers, Laveranues Coles and Rod Gardner, in the 2005 NFL offseason. Their leading returning receiver was Chris Cooley, who caught 37 passes for 314 yards and 6 touchdowns as a rookie and their leading returning wide receiver was James Thrash, who caught 17 passes for 203 yards. They signed Santana Moss that same offseason and Chris Cooley broke out in 2005, but their 3rd leading receiver in 2005 was David Patten with 22 catches for 217 yards. Let’s give them a better complimentary receiver and one of the best players available.

10. Detroit Lions- DT Jay Ratliff (Auburn)

The Lions’ defense was so bad for so many years because they simply ignored it in the early rounds in the Matt Millen era. Just one of Millen’s eight 1st round picks was a defensive player (Ernie Sims). I guess drafting crappy receivers was more important. If they got a do-over, they’d probably have drafted more defensive players, like Jay Ratliff, who happens to be one of the best available at this point.

11. Dallas Cowboys- RB Frank Gore (Miami)

Poor Cowboys. They lost out on DeMarcus Ware in this redraft. Running back was a need position for the Cowboys because in 2004 they had a washed up Eddie George splitting carries with Julius Jones. George averaged just 3.3 YPC in 2004 and retired that offseason. The Cowboys spent a 4th round pick in this draft on Marion Barber to replace George and he did that well, but they wouldn’t be able to get him at that point in a redraft. Gore in the 1st round is a more talented player and fits the range well. Running backs are risky early in drafts, but Gore has made it to 1653 career carries without too many problems and is 46th all-time in rushing yards and is still going somewhat strong in 2012, heading into his age 29 season.

12. San Diego Chargers- MLB Derrick Johnson (Texas)

The Chargers had an aged 32 Randall Godfrey start for them at middle linebacker in 2005 and Derrick Johnson is too talented for them to pass on anyway. Johnson was ProFootballFocus’ 4th ranked linebacker last season, for divisional rival Kansas City nonetheless and need is not as important as value in redrafts.

13. New Orleans Saints- RB Darren Sproles (Kansas State)

I didn’t know where to put Darren Sproles in this remock because he’s such a unique player. You could argue he should have put been about 10 spots lower than this or not in it all at, but running back was a need for the Saints in 2005 as they needed a compliment for Deuce McAllister, who would play in just 5 games the following season thanks to injury (leading to the Saints using the 2nd overall pick on Reggie Bush in the 2006 NFL Draft). Drew Brees wouldn’t get to the Saints for a year and neither would Sean Payton, but I love the fit of him in their system with Brees and Payton so much I’m putting him about 10-15 spots higher than he probably deserves.

14. Carolina Panthers- G Logan Mankins (Fresno State)

Interior offensive lineman rarely go this high, but that’s because, if they don’t become Pro Bowlers, they’re pretty much disappointments as top-20 picks. If a guard drafted in the top-20 becomes just a solid starter, it’s a disappointment because you can find solid starting guards much later. At other positions like cornerback, wide receiver, left tackle etc, it’s not as big of a deal if they’re just solid. That being said, Logan Mankins is a 4-time Pro Bowler and really has been one of the league’s best interior offensive lineman since being drafted so there’s no doubt he deserves to go this high looking back in hindsight. John Fox and the Panthers loved to run the rock and Mankins would have helped them accomplish that goal. The Panthers spent a 3rd round pick on this position so it was a need.

15. Kansas City Chiefs- CB Corey Webster (LSU)

The Chiefs had the league’s worst passing defense in 2004, allowing 8.5 YPA. That number is actually so bad that only the 2008 Lions have posted a worst number since, 8.8 YPA, and they didn’t win a game. Corey Webster has quietly been one of the leagues better cornerbacks with the Giants over the past few years.

16. Houston Texans- DT Jonathan Babineaux (Iowa)

The Texans had the right idea drafting a defensive tackle at this spot in 2005, after they ranked 23rd against the run in 2004, but they picked the wrong one. Travis Johnson was a complete bust, while Jonathan Babineaux remains one of the league’s better defensive tackles to this day.

17. Cincinnati Bengals- C Chris Myers (Miami)

Like Mankins, Myers goes earlier than most interior offensive lineman do because we know what he is now. He was ProFootballFocus’ #1 rated center last year and #1 rated run blocker regardless of position. He goes lower than Mankins because the 2005 6th round pick was more of a late bloomer than Mankins, who was great from the word go.

18. Minnesota Vikings- DE Shawne Merriman (Maryland)

Shawne Merriman and Darren Sproles were the 2 toughest players for me to place. Merriman had an amazing start to his career, with 40 sacks from 2005-2007, but injuries limited him to 5 sacks from 2008-2011 and after being cut by the Bills this preseason, his NFL career might be done at age 28. How much is 3 elite years worth? I’m putting him here conservatively. The Vikings used this pick on Erasmus James, a defensive end who managed 5 sacks his entire career. Using complete hindsight, the Vikings could have just cut Merriman after the 2007 season and not have owed him any more guaranteed money.

19. St. Louis Rams- OT Todd Herremans (Saginaw Valley State)

Ah, the perennial football powerhouse Saginaw Valley State. Anyway, the Rams had the right idea using this pick on an offensive tackle with Orlando Pace getting up there in age, but the problem was that Alex Barron really, really sucked. The Rams have had pretty poor offensive line play over the past 7 years and actually allowed 50 sacks in 2004 even with Pace. Herremans is a versatile player who can play guard and tackle and he definitely would have been an asset to the Rams.

20. Dallas Cowboys- 3-4 DE Chris Canty (Virginia)

The Cowboys originally used this pick on Marcus Spears. That didn’t work out so well, but luckily they used a 4th round pick on Chris Canty, another 3-4 defensive end. If they had used their 1st round pick on Canty and their 4th on Spears, that would have made more sense. Canty is a much more talented player than Spears and was a valuable player for the Cowboys before he left to sign with the Giants. Marcus Spears is actually still with the Cowboys, but I bet most of their fans wish that wasn’t the case. He isn’t very good.

21. Jacksonville Jaguars- WR Nate Washington (Tiffin)

Do Tiffin and Saginaw Valley State ever play each other? Anyway, this might seem a little early for Nate Washington, but the Jaguars have been starved for wide receiver help for forever. They used this pick on Matt Jones and that really did work out. Nate Washington proved last year he can be a 1000 yard receiver if given the chance, which he definitely would be in Jacksonville, and before that, he was a solid complimentary/slot receiver. This draft class is getting pretty thin so that’s worth this pick.

22. Baltimore Ravens- WR Lance Moore (Toledo)

The Ravens also used this pick on a wide receiver, taking Mark Clatyon. He didn’t really work out and Lance Moore has been a very good slot receiver for the Saints who has stepped into the starting lineup when needed over the past few years. Yeah, this draft class is getting thin.

23. Oakland Raiders- CB Stanford Routt (Houston)

The Raiders used this pick on Fabian Washington. That didn’t work out, though the Raiders did draft Stanford Routt in the 2nd round and that wasn’t so bad. I think they’d like to use their 1st round pick to secure Routt in a redraft.

24. Green Bay Packers- QB Alex Smith (Utah)

Alex Smith had a pretty miserable career up until last year, but maybe things would have worked out for him better if he had 3 years behind Brett Favre on the bench like Aaron Rodgers did. The Packers needed a successor for Favre, so they might as well take this chance.

25. Washington Redskins- QB Matt Cassel (USC)

Matt Cassel isn’t great, but is he really worse than the quarterbacks the Redskins have had since drafting Jason Campbell in this spot in 2005? Since then, they’ve had Mark Brunell (2005 and part of 2006), Campbell (part of 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009), Todd Collins (mixed in when Campbell was hurt at times from 2007-2009), Donovan McNabb (2010), and Rex Grossman and John Beck last year. They had to do something at the position and, unlike Jason Campbell, Matt Cassel is still a starter today.

26. Seattle Seahawks- DT Sione Pouha (Utah)

Pouha would have gone higher had he not been a late bloomer. He’s a pretty one dimensional player, but he’s an amazing run stuffer and was actually ProFootballFocus’ 1st rated defensive tackle in 2011. The Seahawks had the league’s 24th ranked run defense in 2004.

27. Atlanta Falcons- DT Mike Patterson (USC)

The Falcons used this pick on Roddy White, but unfortunately he’s not available any more. Neither is Jonathan Babineaux, their 2nd round pick, but Mike Patterson is a decent replacement to make up for that loss.

28. San Diego Chargers- WR Braylon Edwards (Michigan)

This is just another one of those I like the fit picks. Philip Rivers and the Chargers have always had success with taller receivers and they missed out on Vincent Jackson in this redraft, who was originally a 2nd round pick of theirs, so you know wide receiver was a need. Maybe Edwards’ career would have gone better if he was drafted by the Chargers and if not, he still managed to catch 80 passes for 1289 yards and 16 touchdowns in 2007 with Derek Anderson as his quarterback. That’s a major accomplishment even if it was only one season.

29. Indianapolis Colts- RB Cedric Benson (Texas)

The Colts had an aging Edgerrin James in 2005 and would use a 1st round pick on Joseph Addai in the 2006 NFL Draft. That didn’t work out so well, but maybe this would have worked out better. Benson was a bust in his early career in Chicago, but turned into a better player later in his career in Cincinnati. Maybe playing with a talented passing game around him, something he hasn’t gotten to do until this season, his age 30 season in Green Bay, would have allowed him to meet his potential. Like I said, this draft class is getting thin.

30. Pittsburgh Steelers- TE Heath Miller (Virginia)

This is the only pick that doesn’t change. Heath Miller has been a big and underrated part of the Steelers’ offense as a receiver and blocker since they used this pick on him in 2005. At first glance, he doesn’t seem like someone who was worth this pick in hindsight, but when you look at who was in this draft class, it makes a lot more sense at #30 overall.

31. Philadelphia Eagles- RB Brandon Jacobs (Southern Illinois)

Maybe Brian Westbrook wouldn’t have broken down so quickly if the Eagles had a power back like Brandon Jacobs to compliment him with. Maybe he still would have, but at least they would have had insurance.

32. New England Patriots- G Evan Mathis (Alabama)

Mathis has literally only had one good year in the NFL. He was no one last offseason and signed a small money deal with the Eagles, but he was ProFootballFocus’ #1 rated guard this season. That’s worth putting him here as a replacement for Logan Mankins with the Patriots.

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New England Patriots at Tennessee Titans Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 1 NFL Picks, Patriots, Titans

New England Patriots (0-0) at Tennessee Titans (0-0)

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The Titans are one of my favorite sleeper teams. Defensively, they had the league’s 8th ranked scoring defense last year and while they lost Cortland Finnegan, the combination of an improved pass rush (with Derrick Morgan finally healthy and Kamerion Wimbley coming in), their depth at cornerback (new starter Alterraun Verner played very well last season), and the continued maturation of their young defense (6 of 11 starters last year had been drafted in 2009 or later) will make up for that.

Offensively, they will continue to have one of the best passing blocking offensive lines, led by bookend tackles Michael Roos and David Stewart and their run blocking should be better with Steve Hutchinson replacing Jake Scott at guard. Meanwhile, Chris Johnson should be back to his old self, while Kenny Britt returns from injury. Chris Johnson averaged 3.0 YPC in his first 8 games last season after missing most of the offseason with a new coaching staff coming in and also getting out of shape. However, he averaged 4.8 YPC the rest of the way and put in a ton of work this offseason to get back into tip top shape, attending every single one of the Titans’ offseason activities, even the optional ones (OTAs) which he would normally skip in order to train at home in Orlando. Britt, meanwhile, missed 13 ½ games with injury last year, but he’s still only 24 (later this month) and the 2009 1st round pick has 56 catches for 1146 yards and 12 touchdowns in his last 13 full games.

In 2010, when Britt was healthy (11 games) and Chris Johnson was still his old self, the Titans averaged 27.1 points per game in those 11 games. That number is a little skewed because the Titans had an unrealistically low yards per point ratio, but the point is, when they have all their offensive weapons, they can put points on the board. Since then, Nate Washington and Jared Cook have broken out in Britt’s absence and the latter could be even better this year after catching 21 passes for 335 yards and a touchdown in his final 3 years last year. They also add 1st round pick Kendall Wright as a 3rd receiver. On top of that, they’ve made an obvious upgrade at quarterback going from Kerry Collins and Vince Young to Matt Hasselbeck and now to Jake Locker, who led them to 1.83 points per drive last year, as opposed to 1.63 points per drive for Hasselbeck (albiet in limited action). Basically, I feel the same way about the Titans that I did at this point last year about the Lions, who proved me right.

The Titans are clearly underrated as 6 point home underdogs (with negative juice at -105). That translates to a line of -12 in New England (3 points each way for home field). For reference, Buffalo was just -11 in New England week 17 of last year and they finished 6-10. Meanwhile, the Patriots were -7 in Washington last year towards the end of the season and they finished 5-11 (and failed to cover). The Titans were 9-7 last year and might have a top-10 offense and defense this year. Even if you don’t agree with me that the Titans will be good, you have to agree that they’ll be better than 5-11 or 6-10. There’s serious line value here.

On top of all this, the Patriots were Super Bowl runner ups last year. Those teams are 3-15 ATS week 1 the following season. The Steelers got blown out in Baltimore last year in this same situation. The Patriots, believe it or not, are actually only 5-5 ATS in the Belichick/Brady era week 1 (9-1 SU), so they won’t be immune to this “curse.” Another thing I like to see, the Titans opened -7 and immediately almost all of the action went on New England, about 90%, and yet the line dropped. That’s a tell tale sign of a trap line. The odds makers really want you to bet New England. As a general rule, it’s a good idea not to do what the odds makers want you to. If the Titans had Kenny Britt (he’ll miss this game with suspension) and it wasn’t Jake Locker’s 1st career start, I’d make the Titans co-pick of the week. Instead, it’ll be a smaller, but still fairly large bet.

Tennessee Titans 27 New England Patriots 24 Upset Pick +200

Pick against spread: Tennessee Titans +6 (-105) 4 units

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Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 1 NFL Picks, Bengals, Ravens

Cincinnati Bengals (0-0) at Baltimore Ravens (0-0)

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Anyone who followed me during the offseason knows I picked 5 underrated and overrated teams with the intention of trying to get ahead of the odds makers. I will and have been basically just been betting on the underrated teams and against the overrated teams blindly until I’m proven wrong or the odds makers catch up. Unfortunately, I kind of got screwed over this week because two of my underrated teams and two of my overrated teams are playing each other. This game is the latter.

The Bengals made a 5 game improvement last season to go from 4 wins to 9 wins. If history holds, they’ll regress this year as teams that make that kind of improvement regress an average of 2.4 wins per season since the beginning of the 16 game NFL season. Andy Dalton had a rough preseason and really struggled in games against playoff teams last season, during which he went 0-8. He should regress this season now that teams know how to scheme against the Bengals’ system. Andy Dalton had a decent rookie year because of the great job Jay Gruden did as offensive coordinator, but there’s only so long a system can keep a player looking better than he is because you can figure out how to scheme against systems. There’s a reason he struggled so much down the stretch and against better teams. I compare it to Colt McCoy, who looked alright as a rookie, but not only didn’t take that next step in his 2nd year, but also regressed noticeably. Dalton, like McCoy, definitely does not have history on his side as he tries to make the leap to “franchise quarterback.” Only 9 of 32 starting quarterbacks in the NFL today weren’t 1st round picks. In each of the last 2 years, only 4 of 12 starting quarterbacks in the playoffs weren’t 1st round picks.

The Bengals were also hit hard by injuries this preseason as offensive lineman Kyle Cook and Travelle Wharton are both expected to miss the season, with Wharton already on IR. The Bengals injury list is even longer this week as Dre Kirkpatrick and Jason Allen won’t play, Bernard Scott won’t play and Carlos Dunlap and Robert Geathers might not play. Kirkpatrick’s and Allen’s absence will force Nate Clements, in his age 33 season, to start opposite Leon Hall. Hall, meanwhile, probably won’t be 100% just 10 months after tearing his Achilles. Including playoffs, they allowed 23.8 points per game in their final 9 games without Hall, as opposed to 17.5 points per game in their first 8 games with Hall last season. Obviously having him 100% would be a huge boost for them, but I can’t see him being 100%, at least not this week.

Meanwhile, Bernard Scott’s absence means that BenJarvus Green-Ellis will have the carry the load against Baltimore’s stout run defense. BJGE is good at running through holes and not fumbling, but he averaged just 3.7 YPC last year and ranked just 61st out of 67 eligible backs in yards after contact per carry with 2.0. That was in New England, with Tom Brady making life easy for the running backs. Andy Dalton is not Tom Brady, so BJGE will find very little running room, especially with the Bengals missing two starting interior offensive lineman against a great run defense like the Bengals’. The Bengals won’t be able to run the ball this week.

Geathers’ and Dunlap’s potential absences hurt because the Bengals already lost Frostee Rucker and Jonathan Fanene as free agents this offseason. They love rotation on the defensive line and those two were key parts of that rotation. They’ll be replaced by the mediocre Jamaal Anderson and Devon Still, a 2nd round rookie playing out of position. If Geathers and Dunlap miss this game, that means that Anderson will have to start next to Michael Johnson, the least effective member of their pass rush rotation last year with 7 sacks, but just 6 quarterback hits and 15 quarterback pressures, good for a 6.5% rate on 433 pass rush snaps. Those two would probably also have to play most of the game, something they’re just not used to.

Dunlap, the more likely of the two to miss, was one of the best pass rushers in the league last year. Dunlap managed 5 sacks, 13 quarterback hits, and 29 quarterback pressures, on 302 pass rush snaps, a pass rush rate of 15.6%. He’d obviously be a huge loss and right not it sounds like he’ll be out. Given their troubles in the secondary, the Bengals have to get pass rush to have any chance of stopping the Ravens’ passing attack, but I don’t think that will happen.

The Ravens are banged up too as they’re missing Terrell Suggs likely for the season on defense. They also lost two other defensive starters, Cory Redding and Jarrett Johnson, key members of their run defense. The Ravens have depth in the front 7, but guys like Paul Kruger, Pernell McPhee, Arthur Jones, and Albert McClellan will have to play more than they did last year and it’s always a projection to expect them to keep up their levels of play as they get more playing time. Meanwhile, Courtney Upshaw, their 2nd round rookie, will have to play more than they would have liked. On top of all that, Ray Lewis and Ed Reed are aging.

Inferior defensive play will put more pressure on the Ravens’ offense, especially Joe Flacco and company. Joe Flacco looked great in the preseason, with Torrey Smith appearing to be the #1 receiver that Flacco has really lacked his whole career. I almost changed the Ravens’ projection after seeing them in the preseason, but I didn’t because I didn’t want to put too much stock in the preseason. They are, however, really one of those teams that fell out of the playoffs in my preseason predictions out of circumstance. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if they played well and made the playoffs, despite their losses on defense, but it also wouldn’t surprise me if they missed the playoffs.

Because they fell out of circumstance, I feel more comfortable going with the Ravens than the Bengals in this one. I don’t trust the overrated Andy Dalton to beat the Ravens, considering he’s never beaten a playoff team and the Ravens were undefeated at home last year (9-0), as inconsistent as they were on the road. It’s not a very big bet though.

Baltimore Ravens 24 Cincinnati Bengals 13

Pick against spread: Baltimore -6 (-110) 2 units

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Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 1 NFL Picks, Dolphins, Texans

Miami Dolphins (0-0) at Houston Texans (0-0)

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If you’ve been following all of my picks, you’d know I love betting against rookie quarterbacks week 1. They tend to, predictably, struggle in their first NFL action. Since 1994, rookie quarterbacks have completed 55% of their passes, averaged 6 yards YPA, and thrown twice as many picks as touchdowns during weeks 1-4. I get 5 chances to do that this week, as Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin, Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Weeden, and Russell Wilson will all get the week 1 start for their respective teams. The competition Tannehill faced in the Big 12 is nothing like the 4th ranked scoring defense of the Texans’ he’ll face this week.

That will be especially true for Tannehill because he’s incredibly raw and because he doesn’t have much to work with in the receiving corps at all. Legedu Naanee, Brian Hartline, and Davone Bess will be his top 3 wide receivers, with Anthony Fasano and Charles Clay at tight end. Things aren’t much better on the offensive line. At right tackle is a 2nd round rookie Jonathan Martin, who might take a little bit to adjust to the NFL, while left tackle Jake Long has a bad knee. He’ll probably play, but he might not be quite his normal self. Center Mike Pouncey was decent last year and could take another step forward in his 2nd season, while left guard Richie Incognito is also decent.

Right guard is the biggest problem. John Jerry was supposed to be the solution at right guard for them, but, already a poor fit for their zone blocking scheme, Jerry showed up out of shape this offseason and lost his starting job to Artis Hicks, a 34 year old who struggled in limited action as a backup in Cleveland last season. Hicks is now on IR, meaning Jerry will start by default, but the Dolphins might sign Jake Scott, who is still unsigned this close to the start of the season, and he could end up starting for them. That’s how bad things are. They’ll be able to run the ball alright as long as Reggie Bush is healthy, with two young backs Daniel Thomas and Lamar Miller behind him on the depth chart, but the Dolphins will still have trouble moving the ball against a Houston defense that allowed the 4th fewest points in the league last year. Tannehill completed 52.6% of his passes for an average of 5.3 YPA in the preseason. That’s the kind of game he’s probably going to have here.

Miami’s defense was pretty good last year, but they probably won’t be as good this year. They’ll be transitioning from a 3-4 scheme to a 4-3 scheme, which several key players, including Paul Soliai, Jared Odrick, and possibly even Cameron Wake don’t fit as well. It might have been a case of “if it’s not broken, don’t fix it” defensively for the Dolphins. They also lost Vontae Davis and he was one of the top cornerbacks in the league last year. Free agent acquisition Richard Marshall is one of the league’s most underrated cornerbacks and Sean Smith could have a bounce back year, so maybe they won’t miss Davis, but I expect a worse defensive performance by the Dolphins this year. Houston, meanwhile, has Arian Foster, Andre Johnson, and Matt Schaub all healthy in the same game, something that just didn’t happen much last year. Before Schaub got hurt last year, they averaged 27.3 points per game and that was with Andre Johnson and Arian Foster missing significant time during that stretch.

Basically, the Dolphins aren’t going to be very good, especially in the debut of the raw Tannehill. The Texans, meanwhile, are one of the league’s best teams and should blow the Dolphins out in Houston. This isn’t a very big bet because it’s such a big line, as it should be, but I would be surprised if this was even a close game. Houston is also my survivor pick of the week, for anyone who does those things.

Houston Texans 27 Miami Dolphins 9 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: Houston -12 (-110) 1 unit

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Washington Redskins at New Orleans Saints Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 1 NFL Picks, Commanders, Saints

Washington Redskins (0-0) at New Orleans Saints (0-0)

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Welcome to the NFL Robert Griffin. For your first test, you have to go to the Superdome and play Drew Brees and the Saints where they didn’t lose all of last season (9-0 SU and ATS!!!). The Saints have obviously been hurt this offseason by BountyGate and possibly, to a lesser extent, by Drew Brees’ extended contract negotiations, which caused him to miss valuable pre-Training Camp practice time and possibly hurt locker room morale. However, the BountyGate losses they suffered are not huge. Jonathan Vilma was one of the worst middle linebackers in the league last year and looked pretty washed up. Free agent additions David Hawthorne and Curtis Lofton will more than make up for his loss and will turn linebacker, a position of weakness for the Saints in 2011, into a strength. They also added Brodrick Bunkley, the league’s top run stuffing defensive tackle last season.

The bigger loss will be Will Smith at defensive end. On paper, this seems like a huge blow to an already bad Saints’ pass rush. Smith wasn’t great last season, with 7 sacks, 7 quarterback hits, and 34 quarterback pressures on 630 pass rush snaps, including playoffs, a respectable, but not great 9.2% pass rush rate, but this team was the league’s worst rated pass rushing team last season in terms of pass rush productivity (sacks + .75 hits + .75 pressures/total pass rush snaps). They may have had 33 sacks, not a terrible number, but they blitzed more than any team in the league to do even that.

However, the Saints may have a diamond in the rough waiting in the wings behind Smith. Junior Galette, a 2010 undrafted free agent, played very well as a situational pass rusher last season and will be the starter in Smith’s absence this season. On 339 pass rush snaps, he had 4 sacks, 11 quarterback hits, and 19 quarterback pressures, a 10.0% pass rush rate. New Saints’ defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is known for getting the most out of pass rushers, so he should have a positive effect on not just the career of Galette, but Cameron Jordan, the opposite starter, a 2011 1st round pick who struggled as a pass rusher as a rookie last season. Even with Smith missing 4 games with suspension, they should be a more efficient pass rushing team this season and they should be able to get some pressure against a Washington offensive line that was one of the worst in the league last year and didn’t look any better in the preseason.

The Saints’ biggest loss was Head Coach Sean Payton, but they still have Drew Brees and, for what’s it worth, the Saints 1st team offense didn’t seem to miss a beat in the preseason. If anyone can come out the other side of the offseason they just had and still compete, it’s the Saints. Drew Brees is like an assistant head coach and they’re not changing things up much so they should still be more than fine offensively. They’re an incredibly talented team, possibly even more so than last year, and would have probably been my Super Bowl pick had it not been for the off the field issues they had in the offseason. I think they’re a bit underrated right now. They’re just -7  here. For reference, the Falcons were -7 coming into New Orleans week 16 last year. They finished 10-6. The Lions, same record, were -10 in the playoffs in New Orleans.

The Redskins are also underrated right now, but I don’t think they deserve to be just +7. Robert Griffin doesn’t have a great offensive line, but he’s got plenty of offensive weapons in the receiving corps and Mike Shanahan teams have always been able to run the ball, no matter who is starting at running back. Griffin’s rushing ability will also help open things up for whichever back starts this game. Defensively, the secondary is a problem, but they have a much underrated front 7 with two great pass rushers in Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan, one of the best middle linebackers of all time in London Fletcher, a budding young linebacker in Perry Riley, and two solid defensive linemen in Barry Cofield and Stephen Bowen. They won 5 games last year despite awful quarterback play. They should be a solid .500 team this year. Griffin’s presence will make a huge difference, just like Cam Newton did with the Panthers last year (Griffin’s got the superior supporting cast).

However, it may take Griffin a little bit to become acclimated to the NFL. One of the things I love doing is betting against rookie quarterbacks week 1. They tend to, predictably, struggle in their first NFL action. Since 1994, rookie quarterbacks have completed 55% of their passes, averaged 6 yards YPA, and thrown twice as many picks as touchdowns during weeks 1-4. I get 5 chances to do that this week, as Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin, Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Weeden, and Russell Wilson will all get the week 1 start for their respective teams. Griffin didn’t face particularly tough defenses in the Big 12, nor did he have to run a very tough offense and, while I don’t have too many concerns about his long term success, he might struggle out of the gate, especially in New Orleans against a Saints team that might be awfully pissed off after the offseason. Besides, I’m not betting against the Saints in New Orleans.

Update: Player suspensions in the bounty scandal overturned. Even if the players returning don’t have a positive effect on the game for the Saints, it’s a huge morale boost for the team. I’m adding an extra unit.

New Orleans Saints 34 Washington Redskins 20

Pick against spread: New Orleans Saints -7 (-115) 3 units

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Philadelphia Eagles at Cleveland Browns Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 1 NFL Picks, Browns, Eagles

Philadelphia Eagles (0-0) at Cleveland Browns (0-0)

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One of the things I love doing is betting against rookie quarterbacks week 1. They tend to, predictably, struggle in their first NFL action. Since 1994, rookie quarterbacks have completed 55% of their passes, averaged 6 yards YPA, and thrown twice as many picks as touchdowns during weeks 1-4. I get 5 chances to do that this week, as Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin, Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Weeden, and Russell Wilson will all get the week 1 start for their respective teams. The Browns’ Brandon Weeden is 28 years old, but he’ll still have to make the transition from collegiate level defenses to NFL level defenses. The Eagles’ stout defense is going to be far tougher than anything he ever faced in the Big 12.

Weeden also has several major flaws, which is a big part of the reason why he wasn’t a top-10 pick. He tends to take unnecessary risks with the football and can get flustered when the pocket collapses. These are hardly rare attributes for rookie quarterbacks to have, but the issue with Weeden is, unlike most rookie quarterbacks, he doesn’t have 2-3 years to work through those flaws. If he were 22 or 23, sure he would have gone in the top-10, probably even a little bit ahead of Tannehill, but he’s 28, 29 this season. He’s actually older than Aaron Rodgers.

That’s why he fell to 22 to the Browns, where he wasn’t even the Browns’ 1st choice. They wanted Trent Richardson, Kendall Wright, and then Brandon Weeden, taking Weeden in the early 2nd round or late 1st after trading up, but when Wright went 20 to the Titans surprisingly, they just took Weeden. That tells me that the Browns didn’t see him as a polished prospect either. He won’t look like a polished prospect this year and especially not in his first game and against such tough competition.

Weeden has obviously physical advantages over incumbent Colt McCoy, but one of the things McCoy was really good at was avoiding turnovers. The Browns had just 19 turnovers last year. There have been 36 teams since 2002 with 20 or fewer turnovers. In their next season, those teams, have had, on average, 9.64 more turnovers and won 2.69 fewer games. It’s not hard to see how the Browns will turn the ball over more this season and that will limit how much the newcomers will improve things. They’ll be better than the 30th ranked offense they were last year, but not a lot better and they will probably really struggle early in the year as Weeden gets adjusted to the NFL and fellow 1st rounder Trent Richardson gets healthy.

Weeden also won’t have a lot of help. Because they were unable to get Wright, their receiving corps remains very thin. Greg Little could have a breakout year if everything goes right, but Little was one of the worst in the league last year in yards per targets (partially McCoy’s fault) and after him, everything is an even bigger question mark. Mohamed Massaquoi, a mediocre receiver, will start opposite him while their depth behind the two starters are two rookies, Travis Benjamin, a raw 4th rounder, and Josh Gordon, a 2nd round pick in the Supplemental draft who hasn’t played in a game that counts in almost 2 calendar years. Tight end Ben Watson, meanwhile, is a declining player. The Browns add two other rookies to their offense, right tackle Mitchell Schwartz and running back Trent Richardson, but the former was just a 2nd rounder so he might not be that great early on and the latter is less than a month removed from his 2nd knee surgery of the offseason so, even if he plays, it won’t be a full workload and he won’t be his normal self. This is a very young and inexperienced offense playing a great defense.

The biggest strength of the Eagles’ defense is their pass rush. They were tied for the league lead with 50 sacks last year, lead by 29 sacks from Trent Cole and Jason Babin combined, and could be even better this year as they add rotational rookies Fletcher Cox and Vinny Curry and return Brandon Graham from injury. They legitimately go 6 deep at defensive end with Cole, Babin, Graham, Curry, Darryl Tapp, and Phillip Hunt. For what it’s worth, I think they have 6 defensive ends better than Frostee Rucker, who starts at defensive end for the Eagles. They go 3 deep at defensive tackle with Cullen Jenkins, Derek Landri, and Cox. I think they might have the deepest defensive line in football. Joe Thomas is an excellent left tackle for the Browns, but they’ll give him a tough test and they should be able to exploit the holes the Browns have at other spots on the line. Aside from Thomas, only center Alex Mack is a solid starter on this offensive line, assuming Schwartz predictably struggles out of the gate as a rookie. Weeden will be under pressure all night and, as I mentioned, that’s something he has trouble with.

Moving back on the Eagles defense, they added two much needed starters at linebacker this offseason, DeMeco Ryans and Mychal Kendricks. Though the latter is a 2nd round rookie, linebackers typically don’t take as long to transition to the NFL. Their secondary also makes a lot more sense this year than last year, even though they lost Asante Samuel. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie will no longer be playing on the slot, where he is such a poor fit. Heading into a contract year, DRC should be motivated and playing outside again will allow him to have a bounce back year.

Now on the slot is 4th round rookie Brandon Boykin. He might have been the top coverage cornerback in the draft after Morris Claiborne, but fell because of his lack of size and injury. He’s healthy now and his lack of size doesn’t matter much on the slot, where he figures to have a positive impact. Meanwhile, Nnamdi Asomugha will no longer be playing in zone coverage, like they had him in for the first 12 games of last season. Asomugha was a terrible fit in that scheme and played much better in their final 4 games once they allowed him to play man. He’s one of the top cornerbacks in the league in the right coverage scheme and it’s no coincidence they had the league’s best passing defense in their final 4 games once Asomugha started playing much better.

It’s for that and several other reasons why I think the Eagles will be very good this year. Their +68 points differential was best among non-playoff teams by a mile (San Diego was closest at +29). In fact, only 8 teams finished with a higher points differential, which means the Eagles played like a 10 or 11 win team last year, a win total they could have had if they had an average record in close games. Turnovers and records in games decided by less than 7 tend to average out on a year to year basis. They Eagles had 38 turnovers last year. Teams that turn the ball over 35 times or more in a season have on average 9.7 fewer turnovers the next season and win on average 1.61 more games, since 2002. Add 1.61 wins to what this team’s points differential suggested their wins total should have been and you get an 11-12 win team. This year, they may be even more talented. They would have been in my underrated group in my season preview if they weren’t such a popular “sleeper” pick that there’s basically no line value with them anymore. They’re -9 here on the road with juice and were one of just 8 teams to have an over/under set at 10 or more wins.

The Browns defense has no chance of stopping the Eagles’ offense. They ranked 5th in the league with 19.2 points per game allowed, ranked 5th against the pass with 6.7 YPA, and ranked 21st against the run with 4.4 YPC. They did all this despite only 20 turnovers. As they are offensively, turnovers are very unpredictable on a yearly basis defensively. The 38 teams who have managed 20 or fewer takeaways since 2002 have had 7.53 more takeaways and won 1.41 more games the following season.

However, they have been ravaged by injuries this offseason, losing Phil Taylor, Chris Gocong, and James-Michael Johnson, while Scott Fujita will miss this game with suspension, meaning they’ll be without 3 of their top 4 linebackers, forcing undrafted rookie LJ Fort to start at linebacker. Taylor’s absence will force 3rd round rookie John Hughes to start at defensive tackle. Hughes was a major reach in the 3rd round. He didn’t even think he had a chance to go before the 4th round and didn’t plan his draft party until day 3 of the draft (rounds 4-7). The good news is that it looks like Joe Haden will not be suspended for this one, but the Eagles can just easily pick on opposite cornerback Sheldon Brown, who is heading into his age 33 season. The Browns have one good defensive back (Haden), one good linebacker (D’Qwell Jackson), and one good defensive lineman (Jabaal Sheard) and that’s about it. That won’t be nearly enough to stop the Eagles, who averaged 24.8 points per game last year, despite those 38 turnovers.

The Eagles finished last season on an impressive 4-0 run and turned into the team that no one wanted to have to face in the playoffs, outscoring teams 125-46 over that stretch. Of course, they didn’t have very tough competition during that stretch (@Miami, vs. NY Jets, @ Dallas, vs. Washington), but they don’t have tough competition here either and should be able to blow out the Browns in Weeden’s debut. The only reason this isn’t a big bet is because I hate betting on road favorite of more than a touchdown (they tend to only cover about 40% of the time historically). It should be an easy blowout though.

Philadelphia Eagles 34 Cleveland Browns 12

Pick against spread: Philadelphia Eagles -9 (-115) 2 units

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San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders Week 1 NFL Pick

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San Diego Chargers (0-0) at Oakland Raiders (0-0)

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I have the Raiders as one of my overrated teams. The Raiders’ Pythagorean Expectation last year suggested they should have won 6 games, not 8, as they went 7-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less, the most wins of that kind of any team last season. The Raiders also lost their top cornerback Stanford Routt and their top pass rusher Kamerion Wimbley in free agency. If that’s not enough, starting linebacker Aaron Curry could be out for the year and will be replaced in the starting lineup by a 4th round rookie and defensive tackles Tommy Kelly and Richard Seymour are both going into their age 33 seasons, with the latter already dealing with a bad knee. They had the league’s 29th ranked scoring defense last year, allowing 27.1 points per game and could be the league’s worst scoring defense this year. Carson Palmer and the playmakers on offense can make some plays, but they’ll also commit a lot of turnovers and it won’t be enough to offset the defense’s play.

The idea behind identifying overrated and underrated teams was to be one step ahead of the odds makers and essentially blindly bet against the overrated teams and on the underrated teams until the odds makers caught up or the teams proved me wrong. However, I’m just not that comfortable betting on the Chargers here. They’re incredibly banged up offensively. They’ll be without top running back Ryan Matthews, leaving decrepit running back Ronnie Brown to start, in his age 31 season, after averaging 3.2 YPC last year.

They’re also without Vincent Brown, their best receiver in Training Camp before his injury, leaving Philip Rivers with the overpaid Robert Meachem, who has a career high 45 catches despite playing 4 years with Drew Brees, and Malcom Floyd, an inconsistent receiver in his age 31 season who has caught 3 or fewer passes in 14 of his last 23 games, missing 9 games over the past 2 years. Antonio Gates will be his favorite target, unless the 32 year old, who has also missed 9 games over the past 2 years, gets hurt.

Finally, they’ll be without left tackle Jared Gaither, leaving undrafted rookie Mike Harris to start on the blindside on a line already with major weaknesses at left guard and right tackle. Philip Rivers is an elite quarterback who should bounce back from a down year last year (he had 14 touchdowns to 6 interceptions in his final 8 games, a sign of a turnaround) and he’s done well with limited help in the past before, but this might just be asking too much of him.

There’s also the issue of the Chargers’ early season struggles, especially on the road. Prior to last year, when the Chargers went 4-1 early against a cupcake schedule, the Chargers were 14-12 from weeks 1-6 under Philip Rivers and 41-11 (41-11!!!) from weeks 6-17. Including last year, they’re actually 2-9 ATS on the road during the first 4 weeks of the season in the Philip Rivers era. The Raiders crowd will be amped up getting a Monday Night Football home game, a rarity for a franchise that has had a rough past decade or so (9 straight years without the playoffs).

All that being said, I’m taking the Chargers. I’m just not particularly confident about it. The Chargers were able to beat up on a cupcake schedule last year early, beating Minnesota by 7, Kansas City by 3, Miami by 10, and Denver (prebow) by 5. That’s not particularly impressive, but all the Chargers need to do is win here as small underdogs and I think they should be able to do that against an opponent who, like their early opponents last year, isn’t very good. Rather than putting 1 unit on the spread and 1 on the money line, I’m putting 2 on the money line because 1 point games are rare. It’s not worth the extra -15 juice to get the +1.

San Diego Chargers 31 Oakland Raiders 24 (+105) 2 units

Pick against spread: San Diego +1 (-110) 0 units

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Indianapolis Colts at Chicago Bears Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 1 NFL Picks, Bears, Colts

Indianapolis Colts (0-0) at Chicago Bears (0-0)

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For those of you who followed me in the offseason, you’ll know that I did a lot of work to identify 5 underrated and 5 overrated teams to get ahead of the odds makers, bet them until they caught up or the teams proved him wrong, and make some money. Unfortunately, I got kind of screwed over week 1 or two of my overrated teams and two of my underrated teams are playing each other.

This game features the former. The Bears were 11-5 and made it to the NFC Championship game in 2010 and last year they were 7-3 before Jay Cutler and Matt Forte went down. Brandon Marshall comes in to bolster their receiving corps and Mike Martz leaves as offensive coordinator, which is addition by subtraction because they never fit his scheme. Their offensive line is still a mess, but the Giants won the Super Bowl last year with the league’s worst offensive line in pass blocking efficiency. Jay Cutler has proven in the right scheme (not Martz’ where he had to drop back 7 steps on every play), that he can be very tough to sack (in his final year in Denver, he was sacked on 6.0% of pressured snaps, the lowest percent for any quarterback in the last 4 years). The defense will be solid as always, even with their linebackers aging, with strong defensive line and secondary play.

Meanwhile, the Colts have an over/under of 5.5 coming into the season. When an over/under win total is 6 or lower, the over hits about 2 of 3 three times. I wish I liked more of the lower over/under totals this year for prop bets, but I do like the Colts. Andrew Luck doesn’t have much of a supporting cast, but he should prove to be a franchise quarterback from the word go and with an easy schedule, they should be able to at least match the 6 wins the Panthers got last year. Besides, since the start of a 16 game season, teams that regress 8 wins win on average 5.0 more the following season. Obviously losing Peyton Manning hurts, but Andrew Luck and maybe a few breakout players will make them better than people think.

So who am I going with? Well, it’s not an easy decision, but I’m going with the Bears, simply because this is Andrew Luck’s 1st NFL start and he gets an awfully tough test. I really like to bet against rookie quarterbacks week 1. They tend to, predictably, struggle in their first NFL action. Since 1994, rookie quarterbacks have completed 55% of their passes, averaged 6 yards YPA, and thrown twice as many picks as touchdowns during weeks 1-4. I get 5 chances to do that this week, as Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin, Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Weeden, and Russell Wilson will all get the week 1 start for their respective teams.

Luck is no ordinary rookie quarterback, but the Bears defense is no ordinary defense. The linebackers get all the hype, but their defensive line is very strong led by Julius Peppers and underrated defensive tackle Henry Melton and they have a very underrated secondary, led by cornerbacks Charles Tillman and Tim Jennings. Even if Urlacher isn’t his usual self, they should be able to hold Andrew Luck and the Colts’ offense in check. Remember, Luck doesn’t have a lot of help. He should make the receiving corps and offensive line look better than they are, just like he did in college, but they don’t run the ball well. On the defensive side of the ball, there’s not much he can do and a suddenly explosive Bears offense should be able to move the ball well against it, even with guys like Vontae Davis, Dwight Freeney, and Robert Mathis. I’m taking the home team for a small bet.

Chicago Bears 31 Indianapolis Colts 17

Pick against spread: Chicago -9.5 (-110) 1 unit

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