Month: September 2012

Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns: Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 3 NFL Picks, Bills, Browns

Buffalo Bills (1-1) at Cleveland Browns (0-2)

Before the season, I identified 5 overrated and 5 underrated teams, with the idea of betting on them (or against them) until they proved me wrong or the odds makers caught up. This served me well as I’m 10-4 this year on games involving those 10 teams. One of the 4 losses was because I abandoned shipped on the Bills after week 1 and picked the Chiefs last week. In doing so, I broke one of my own rules, never overreact to one week (I also broke another one of my rules last week, never bet heavily on Jay Cutler, those two losses were two of just five. I should listen to myself.)

I had the Bills making it into the playoffs on the good defense, good running game, conservative offense, don’t make mistakes, easy schedule model, but after their week 1 loss, I overreacted and dropped them. However, the Bills bounced back big time this week and beat the Chiefs by 18 in a game that was 35-3 after the first 3 quarters before 2 garbage time scores. They looked exactly like what I envisioned they would and they can definitely continue to beat up on crappy competition like that. And for the record, no this is not an overreaction to one game. I’m simply undoing my previous overreaction. Without Fred Jackson, CJ Spiller looks like one of the best running backs in the league and the defense looks like I thought they would, which makes live easy for Ryan Fitzpatrick.

The Browns count as crappy competition, definitely. Without Joe Haden, they are probably the worst team in the league and at the very least they’re one of the worst. This is the type of team Buffalo should be able to establish their game plan against and dominate. I feel like the Bills are once again being really underrated, even more so than the beginning of the year.

In the beginning of the year, they were a popular sleeper and even with the Jets in the odds makers book, but one bad game and one good game and now all of a sudden they’re just -3 at a Browns team that should never be bet as anything other than dogs of 3+ against anyone other than really crappy teams. The Bills aren’t and I’m taking one of my original underrated teams to dominate them in Cleveland.

As long as I get field goal protection, this is a moderate sized bet and I do get field goal protection at -3. The only reason this isn’t a huge bet is because New England is next on the schedule for the Bills (and after that, San Francisco. They could be caught looking forward to that one. Still, I’m certainly not taking the Browns to win this game, even at home, and with such a small spread, that’s basically what you have to be comfortable doing if you take Cleveland.

Public lean: Buffalo (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Cleveland covers)

Buffalo Bills 27 Cleveland Browns 16

Pick against spread: Buffalo -3 (-105) 3 units

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Detroit Lions at Tennessee Titans: Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 3 NFL Picks, Lions, Titans

Detroit Lions (1-1) at Tennessee Titans (0-2)

Before the season, I identified 5 overrated and 5 underrated teams, with the idea of betting on them (or against them) until they proved me wrong or the odds makers caught up. This served me well as I’m 10-4 this year on games involving those 10 teams (and one of those losses is because I abandoned shipped on the Bills after week 1 and picked the Chiefs last week). However, two weeks into the season, I’ve had to adapt that a little. The one thing that’s remained constant is that the Lions are overrated. They needed a late comeback at home to beat the Rams week 1 and then they weren’t really competitive in San Francisco last week before a late garbage time touchdown.

The reason I thought Detroit was overrated was because of how one dimensional they are. They had a great passing offense, but they didn’t have much talent at the running back position and they couldn’t stop anyone defensively. Last year, they won just 5 of their final 12 games, including playoffs, and needed 4 comebacks of 13 points or more, an NFL record, to even win 10 games. Their defense ranked 23rd in scoring and I didn’t think they could keep relying on the offense to bail the defense out at a historic rate.

Besides, their strength, their passing offense, was very reliant on Matt Stafford, who coming into this season was just a one year wonder. For the record, he’s completing 63.8% of his passes for 7.3 YPA, 2 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions in 2 games. Except for the completion percentage, which has remained steady, those are all down from last year. He’s not bad or anything, but he doesn’t nearly have the help he needs for this to be an elite team, specifically defensively.

Defensively, they’ve been awful through 2 games, particularly through the air, ranking 22nd in YPA, allowing 37 of 56 for 374 yards, 3 touchdowns, and no interceptions. That might not sound awful, but neither of the quarterbacks they’ve faced, Alex Smith or Sam Bradford, are really that great. Jake Locker isn’t that great either, completing 61.3% of his passes for 6.5 YPA, 2 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, but this is by far his easiest match up.

The Lions are expected to be healthier in the secondary this week, returning Chris Houston and Bill Bentley from injury. However, they’re still not at 100% and it’s not like they were a good pass defense before injuries. Houston is decent, but Bentley is a 3rd round rookie. Those 2 will work with Jacob Lacey, a mediocre talent, at cornerback, while their safeties will be Erik Coleman and either Amari Spievey or John Wendling. None of those guys are any good. Locker should be able to move the ball on this group and in his 3rd start in the NFL, he could be more comfortable, especially now that Kenny Britt is expected to play a larger role. Remember, Britt, not yet 24 years old, has caught 56 passes for 1146 yards and 12 touchdowns in his full last 13 games.

One other thing that will help Locker out is that Chris Johnson should finally break through this week. CJ21 has been hilariously awful through the first 2 games of the season, rushing for 21 yards on 19 carries. However, the competition he’s faced has been stiff. I’m not saying he’s blameless; in fact he’s far from it, but last year he struggled against stiff competition and tore up bad run defenses. In 4 games against teams ranked 21st or worse in YPC, Johnson rushed for over 100 yards 4 times, over 130 yards 3 times and over 153 yards 2 times. The Lions ranked 30th against the run last year. They’ve been a little bit better this year, ranking 16th, but it’s only been 2 games and they didn’t make a single change in their defensive front 7 from last year to this year, so that decent ranking is probably a fluke. Chris Johnson should finally have a good game this week. That will take the pressure off of Locker.

So the Lions can’t stop the run and they can’t stop the pass. What can they do? Well, they can get to the quarterback, or at least they used to be able to. They rank 17th in pass rush efficiency this year, a stat they ranked 8th in last year. Like their improved run defense, this is probably also a fluke. I can’t think of any good reason why their pass rush would decline, other than possibly Kyle Vanden Bosch’s age (1 sack and 1 quarterback hurry on 43 pass rush snaps in his age 34 season). They should considering giving talented young backup Willie Young more snaps.

However, don’t expect the Lions to be able to get to Locker with ease this week. Tennessee’s offensive front can’t run block, but they are great in pass protection. They were the 2nd ranked offensive line in pass block efficiency last year. Locker will be under some pressure, like he has been in their first 2 games against tough competition (he’s been the 10th most pressured quarterback in the league), because the Lions have a tough pass rush too, but he should have enough time to have a solid game against a secondary that couldn’t stop Sam Bradford or Alex Smith.

So the Titans should be able to move the ball, but what about the Lions? They should be able to as well. Matt Stafford leads an above average passing game and they get Mikel Leshoure back from suspension this week, though it’s unclear how much he’ll play or how much he’ll help the running game. Besides, the Titans have surrendered 34 and 38 points in their first 2 games.

However, Matt Stafford is not on the level of Philip Rivers and Tom Brady, the Titans’ opponents in their first 2 games. Rivers in particular played an amazing game against them. Down his top receiver Antonio Gates, he completed 24 of 32 for 284 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception despite being pressured on 20 of 37 drop backs. On top 20 pressured drop backs, he took just 3 sacks, scrambled twice and completed 10 of 16.

The Titans can get after the quarterback this year thanks to maturation of some of their young defensive linemen and the addition of Kamerion Wimbley. They rank 2nd in the league in pass rush efficiency, which helps make up for the loss of Cortland Finnegan in the secondary. Remember, they were the league’s 8th rated scoring defense last year and this year, in spite of all the points they’ve given up, they’re pretty middle of the pack in yards per play allowed. That’s 23rd in the league this year, but it’s actually right in the middle of the best (4.1) and the worst (7.2). They rank 27th in yards per play differential because of their offense (4.9 yards per play, which is 29th) more so than their defense, so the Lions won’t have a field day or anything on the Titans defense. And the Titans’ offense, as I mentioned, seems due for a better game this week, for several reasons.

I don’t think the Titans are better than the Lions or anything, but this line implies that the Lions are 7 points better on a neutral field. That doesn’t make any sense to me and it wouldn’t have made any sense to the odds makers last week, who had the advance spread on this game at Tennessee -1 last week. Something like an even or Detroit -1 would have made more sense in this game, so we’re getting a ton of line value with the Titans. In spite of that, the public is predictably pounding the Lions this week. I love betting against the public at every chance I get, especially when the public is leaning one way heavily. The odds makers are rich for a reason and the public is getting slaughtered this year on big leans.

On top of the line value, I also think the Lions could be pretty flat this week. They’re coming off an emotional loss to a very talented team and might not get up for a non-conference 0-2 team, especially with a divisional test looming on the horizon next week. Road favorites in non-conference battles are 9-16 ATS since 1989 coming off a loss as a dog before playing a divisional opponent. I know it’s a really specific trend, which is why I had to go all the way back to 1989 to get statistically significant data, but it makes sense that the Lions would be flat this week, especially as a young team prone to penalties (they were the 3rd most penalized teams in the league last.

Meanwhile, the Titans are coming off back to back losses of 20+, which historically means they’re undervalued. Teams are 32-16 ATS in this situation since 2002. The Titans are especially undervalued here because people are looking past exactly how tough their opening two games were, especially with a 1st time starting quarterback. As long as Detroit doesn’t have field goal protection, I’m taking the Titans in this one.

Public lean: Detroit (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Tennessee covers)

Tennessee Titans 24 Detroit Lions 23 Upset Pick +165

Pick against spread: Tennessee Titans +4 (-110) 3 units

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys: Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 3 NFL Picks

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-1) at Dallas Cowboys (1-1)

Before the season, I identified 5 overrated and 5 underrated teams, with the idea of betting on them (or against them) until they proved me wrong or the odds makers caught up. This served me well as I’m 10-4 this year on games involving those 10 teams (and one of those losses is because I abandoned shipped on the Bills after week 1 and picked the Chiefs last week). However, two weeks into the season, I’ve had to adapt that a little.

A very interesting thing has happened with the Buccaneers, one of my underrated teams preseason. They haven’t played well, but they’ve had good results. They beat the Panthers in the opener and were up on the Giants last week in New York before blowing the lead. However, they rank dead last in yards per play differential, which is feel is the best indicator of future success. So why the disparity between their points differential and their yards per play differential?

For one, they’re running a lot more than they’re passing and their opponents are doing the opposite. Opponents have passed 84 times, to 38 runs against them and passes tend to average more per attempt, though it’s less consistent yardage than run plays. The Buccaneers have run 58 times to 52 passes. That’s one of the flaws in yards per play differential. The other flaw is has is level of competition and the Buccaneers haven’t played easy teams. However, they’re also dominating the turnover battle by a differential of +3. They can’t keep relying on winning the turnover battle. They’re also dominating the turnover return yardage battle, 124 to 6, something else they can’t keep relying on. They might actually be overrated this week.

However, I also think the Cowboys are a little overrated, but that’s nothing new. The Cowboys are overrated by the odds makers on a yearly basis because of their name value. They’re one of the most frequently bet teams so the odds makers jack up the odds. As a result of this, they’re 30-37 ATS since 2008 and 13-20 ATS since 2010. However, this week they’re actually not the public’s favorite as the public has a slight lean on Tampa Bay.

I’m really torn on this one. I don’t love either side and I don’t like going with a public dog like Tampa Bay, but they’re not a huge public dog. Besides, the only true trend in play here is the 2nd straight road game as a dog off a loss trend. Teams in their 2nd straight road game as underdogs off a loss are 57-38 ATS since 2008. I’m going with the Buccaneers for a small play.

Public lean: Tampa Bay (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Dallas covers)

Dallas Cowboys 27 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay +8 (-105) 1 unit

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts: Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 3 NFL Picks, Colts, Jaguars

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2) at Indianapolis Colts (1-1)

Before the season, I identified 5 overrated and 5 underrated teams, with the idea of betting on them (or against them) until they proved me wrong or the odds makers caught up. This served me well as I’m 10-4 this year on games involving those 10 teams (and one of those losses is because I abandoned shipped on the Bills after week 1 and picked the Chiefs last week). However, two weeks into the season, I’ve had to adapt that a little. However, one thing remains the same. I still feel the Colts are underrated.

One of the reasons they’ve remained underrated and because they’ve played underrated teams. I feel the Bears and Vikings are both underrated teams right now. The Colts, meanwhile, don’t have a ton of talent of anything, but Andrew Luck is the real deal.  After a rough opener against a strong Chicago defense, Luck was incredibly impressive in his 2nd start, passing for 224 yards on 20 of 31, despite minimal help from his supporting cast. Under pressure on 15 of 37 drop backs, he took just 2 sacks, scrambled 4 times for 21 yards, and completed 6 of 9 for a touchdown and of the 3 incompletions, 1 was dropped, and on 1 he was hit as he threw. In fact, if you take non-targets out of the equation and add in drops (accuracy percentage), he would have been 24 of 29. Expect this team to at least win the 6 games Cam Newton did last year, with a 7 or 8 win season being more likely.

Given that, it’s pretty weird that the odds makers think that the Colts and Jaguars are equal (home field advantage is 3 points). The Jaguars figure to be one of the worst teams in the league. Remember when Blaine Gabbert looked like a functional quarterback? That was fun. Against Houston, Gabbert finished 7-19 for 53 yards, after leaving with an injury and in the middle of the 3rd quarter, he was averaging less than 1 yard per pass attempt. His pocket presence regressed as he was pressured on 8 of 23 drop backs, scrambling once, taking 3 sacks and going 1 for 4.

Indianapolis doesn’t have nearly the defense that Houston does, but Gabbert still cannot be trusted as a functional quarterback going forward, especially behind an offensive line that could be missing two starters once again. They’ve had the league’s 31st ranked offensive line in terms of pass blocking efficiency. The one thing that has remained the same over their first 2 games is their horrible defensive play. Starting cornerback Derek Cox is expected back, but that won’t solve all of their problems. Stud linebacker Daryl Smith will also miss again this week. Andrew Luck and company shouldn’t have much problem moving the ball again this week. The Jaguars rank 30th in the league in yards per play differential.

I still feel like there’s a lot of line value with the Colts. They’re not the same crappy team they were last year. Andrew Luck is the real deal and they’re also much better coached. The Jaguars, meanwhile, might be even worse than they were last year because the defense is no longer respectable and because Maurice Jones-Drew, who had 47.7% of their offensive yards last year, most by a non-quarterback since OJ Simpson in 1974, isn’t the same as last year. If Blaine Gabbert can be respectable against a bad defense again like he did in the opener, they could keep this one close, but I don’t really trust him to do that.

Plus, the Colts are trying to avenge a divisional loss of 10 points or fewer, a situation teams are 59-38 ATS in since 2010. The Colts are also going into a bye , Teams in general tend to cover heading into a bye, as long as their opponent isn’t also heading into one, going 151-126 ATS since 2002. On top of that, week 1 rookie starting quarterbacks are 8-1 ATS and SU week 3 since 2008.

Public lean: Indianapolis (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Jacksonville covers)

Indianapolis Colts 27 Jacksonville Jaguars 16

Pick against spread: Indianapolis -3 (-110) 3 units

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Atlanta Falcons at San Diego Chargers: Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 3 NFL Picks, Chargers, Falcons

Atlanta Falcons (2-0) at San Diego Chargers (2-0)

The Chargers are one of just six 2-0 teams left in the NFL. Have they conquered their early season woes? They certainly look good. They’ve used 7 of their last 8 picks in the first 3 rounds on defensive players and it seems to have paid off while veterans like Quentin Jammer and Shaun Phillips seem to be holding things together for one more year. Meanwhile, on offense, Philip Rivers might be the MVP of the league for the first 2 games, leading this team to a 2-0 record despite not having much to throw with. He’s playing behind the league’s worst offensive line in terms of pass block efficiency and he’s doing it while throwing to Malcom Floyd, Robert Meachem (just kidding, no one ever throws to Robert Meachem), and one game of Antonio Gates. His running game isn’t helping him much either as none of their backs have really gotten much going in Ryan Mathews’ absence.

The good news for Rivers is that Mathews will be back this week. Mathews is injury prone, but he’s one of the most talented backs in the league and they were planning on using him as an everything back so he should definitely help their offense. Gates is also expected back. The problem is their schedule is getting much harder this week. I don’t fully believe they’ve conquered their early season problems just because they’re 2-0 after beating two crappy teams. They started 4-1 last year beating up on crappy teams before eventually going on a 6 game losing streak once things got harder. Before last year, they were 14-12 from weeks 1-5 under Philip Rivers and 41-11 (41-11!!!) from weeks 6-17. Including last week, they’re actually just 4-7 ATS as favorites during the first 4 weeks of the season in the Philip Rivers era.

This week, the Falcons come to town and they represent by far their toughest opponent so far. Matt Ryan and this passing offense has been as advertised, completing 70.1% of his passes for an average of 7.7 YPA, 5 touchdowns and no interceptions, and the defense has been okay despite the loss of Brent Grimes for the season.

However, I wasn’t overly impressed with the Falcons’ performance last week on Monday Night Football. I felt like they should have been up 20 given how badly the Broncos started and how much they turned the ball over, but they didn’t capitalize like they should have. They lost the yardage total battle and the yards per play battle and if it wasn’t for those 4 turnovers, they probably would have lost at home by double digits. They can’t keep relying on winning the turnover battle to win games.

As a result of that game, they actually have a yards per play differential at even, +0, and that’s my favorite stat and what I feel is the best indicator of how a team has played and how they will play in the future. For what it’s worth though, the Chargers sit at only +0.3, so it’s not like they’re much better. Neither team’s yards per play differential is as good as their record. On top of that, I don’t really trust the Falcons outside on the road, especially on just 5 days rest coming off Monday Night Football.

I’m really torn on this one. I don’t believe the Chargers have gotten rid of their early season problems and I feel they could be due for a stinker now that they’re playing an actually good opponent. However, I wasn’t that impressed with the Falcons on Monday Night Football at home, where they’re best and now they go on the road on short rest. Besides, the Chargers never blew out a team last year in their strong start against an easy schedule like they did last week.

I’m picking the Chargers because the Falcons are one of the heaviest public underdogs you’ll ever see. Not only do I love betting against the public when the action is heavy in one direction (the public is getting killed on these types of games this year), I love it even more when the publicly backed team is an underdog. The Chargers are getting their due respect against a Falcons team that, like they are, is hasn’t really played as well as their record would suggest. I’m taking the home team for a small play.

Public lean: Atlanta (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if San Diego covers)

San Diego Chargers 28 Atlanta Falcons 24

Pick against spread: San Diego -3 (-110) 1 unit

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Oakland Raiders: Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 3 NFL Picks, Raiders, Steelers

Oakland Raiders (0-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1)

Before the season, I made a list of underrated and overrated teams, with the intent of betting them (or against them) until the odds makers caught up and I was proven wrong. This approach has worked well for me because I’m 10-4-2 ATS on games involving those teams. One thing I was dead on about was that the Raiders would be one of the worst teams in the league. They’ve been favored in each of their first 2 games, losing them both, including the last one in embarrassing fashion to the Dolphins, 35-13, a game I made a big play on in favor of the Dolphins.

Their defense has been exactly as you’d expect from a defense that ranked 29th in scoring last year and then who lost their top cornerback and top pass rusher this offseason. Injuries have hammered them on that side of the ball too as linebacker Aaron Curry is expected to miss the entire season, while top cornerback Ronald Bartell will miss at least 6 weeks after being put on non-season ending IR.

Shawntae Spencer, another starting cornerback, will also miss this game, as could middle linebacker Rolando McClain. Spencer isn’t very good, but he was a starter at a very thin position to begin with. After failing to return everyone at the position who played a single snap for them in 2011, the Raiders have lost their top two cornerbacks with injury and will likely start Patrick Lee and Phillip Adams in this one. Yeah, good luck containing Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown.

McClain’s potential absence also hurts as he’s one of their best defensive players and plays in a unit already starting a 4th round rookie. Travis Goethel, an inexperienced 2010 5th round pick, would start in his absence if he couldn’t go. Meanwhile, defensive tackles Richard Seymour and Tommy Kelly are showing their age as they just let Reggie Bush run for 172 yards and 2 scores on them last week en route to a 35-13 Miami victory in a game where the Dolphins totaled 452 yards.

Offensively, Carson Palmer has been what you’d expect and turning 33 this season, he’s not going to get any better. He’s not the problem though. The offense hasn’t been terrible and for the most part he’s not getting any help. He’s playing behind a 28th ranked offensive line in pass blocking efficiency and that will only get worse this week as they face a tough Pittsburgh pass rush, likely without starting right tackle Khalif Barnes. Barnes isn’t great or anything, but replacement Willie Smith was horrendous last week after Barnes left the game. And Darren McFadden? What the hell happened to Darren McFadden?

This has become a consensus awful team, one of the worst in the NFL. However, they still seem to be overrated by Vegas. How are they only -4 here? My first thought was trap line (more on that later), especially since most of the action is on Pittsburgh and the line is still falling, but I’m having a hard time seeing how Pittsburgh doesn’t cover this week.

Pittsburgh has a big home/road differential, dating back to the start of last season and have fallen flat on the road against bad teams in the past. This team is -40 on the road in that time period, including playoffs, and +137 at home. They beat Indianapolis by just 3, Kansas City by just 4, and Cleveland by just 3 last year. However, they’re heading into a bye and good teams tend to be very focused and cover heading into a bye.

Teams in general tend to cover heading into a bye, as long as their opponent isn’t also heading into one, going 151-126 ATS since 2002. However, good teams are even better. Road favorites of 3+ and home favorites of 7+ are a combined 34-18 ATS heading into a bye since 2002, as long as their opponent isn’t also heading into a bye. The Steelers, who are a perennially good team, have covered 4 out of 5 times before a bye under Mike Tomlin. Even with their recent road struggles, they should be extremely focused this week and obliterate an Oakland team that doesn’t stand much of a chance on paper.

The possibility of this being a trap line is the only reason this isn’t a bigger bet. Most of the money is on Pittsburgh and on top of the public being terrible on games where they lean heavily to one side this year, it’s a bad sign that most of the money is on one side and we have opposite line movement. Even heading into a bye, Pittsburgh could fall flat against a drastically inferior team on the road once again, especially since they will be without James Harrison and possibly Troy Polamalu again. I’m going with Pittsburgh because I just can’t see Oakland keeping this one close, but it’s not a big wager.

Public lean: Pittsburgh (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Oakland covers)

Pittsburgh Steelers 31 Oakland Raiders 13

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh -4 (-110) 2 units

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Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks: Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 3 NFL Picks, Packers, Seahawks

Green Bay Packers (1-1) at Seattle Seahawks (1-1)

I love exploiting home/road differentials and, for that reason, Seahawks games are always my favorite to bet. Last week, this is what I said about the subject, “No team has a bigger home/road disparity over the past few years than the Seattle Seahawks. Since 2007, they’re 11-32 SU and 14-28 ATS on the road, but 24-18 SU and 27-14 ATS at home. That’s why it was predictable that they would lose to an inferior Cardinals team on the road last week; that’s why it’s now predictable that they’ll bounce back at home against a superior Cowboys team.” And what did they do? Well, they bounced back at home against a superior Cowboys team, improving to 28-14 ATS at home since 2007 and winning me my 2nd biggest play of the week

Because nothing that’s happened with this team so far has surprised me (the Cowboys were overrated and coming off an emotional opening night game, after which teams are 4-13-1 ATS in the last 9 years), I haven’t moved this team in my Power Rankings at all. That’s gotten a lot of comments from vocal Seahawks fans, who are as loud on the internet as they are at Century Link field (don’t worry, it’s a compliment). I had the Seahawks lower than most people in my Power Rankings to start the season and I haven’t moved them.

They can run the football and they play solid defense and they have one of the best home field advantages in the league, but they’re also terrible on the road and Russell Wilson is more likely to fail than succeed as a starter. He was a mere 3rd rounder and passed up on by every team in the league once and by most twice (including the Seahawks).

The NFL Draft is a crap shoot, but if there’s one thing the NFL as a whole is good at doing, it’s making sure that starting quarterbacks don’t fall out of the 1st round. Only 9 of the 32 starting quarterbacks in the NFL today went outside the 1st round and only one rookie quarterback who didn’t go in the 1st round has started week 1 since 1994 and gone on to throw more touchdowns than interceptions.

I like Pete Carroll and maybe he and John Schneider found a diamond in the rough, but given the history of non-1st round pick quarterbacks in the NFL, Wilson will have to prove me wrong before I start believing in him. So far, he hasn’t really done that, completing 61.1% of his passes for an average of 5.6 YPA and 2 touchdowns to 1 interception. For reference, Tarvaris Jackson completed 60.2% of his passes for 6.9 YPA and 14 touchdowns to 13 interceptions last year. The quarterback position is still what’s keeping this from being a legitimate playoff team, especially out of what appears to be an improved NFC West. It also doesn’t help that neither the offensive line or receiving corps are very good.

Now, it is true that Wilson hasn’t really had to do much in their first 2 games, but this week he will have to as the Packers come to town. The Packers rebounded from a pitiful defensive showing week 1 to destroy Chicago last week and now it’s looking like week 1 was the fluke for them. Even at home on Monday Night with a crazy crowd on their side, the Seahawks will have their work cut out for them.

One thing the Seahawks’ unsurprising victory over the Cowboys last week did was it completely moved this line. This line was originally -6 in favor of Green Bay and now it’s -3. The Seahawks are now really overrated. I’m not saying going into Seattle and winning is easy, but all the Packers really need to do here is win straight up because we have field goal protection. Nobody has been better at doing that over the last 2 years or so as, including playoffs, the Packers are 22-3 in their last 25 games, 17-8 ATS. I really like them to win here as small favorites, especially with 11 days rest coming off Thursday Night football. Teams are 42-28 ATS since 2008 coming off Thursday Night football (excluding teams coming off week 1 Thursday Night games). There isn’t any trend that says that teams are better on Monday Night (4-5 ATS), but I don’t think the extra day of rest will hurt.

Public lean: Green Bay (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Seattle covers)

Pick change:

I’ve never done this before, but I’m changing this right before game time for several reasons.

1. Home dogs are dominating this year. They are 12-6 and an unbelievable 11-7 straight up. They aren’t just covering at a high rate. They’re pulling the upset at a rate higher than 61..1% clip. Home teams, in general, are 30-17 straight up this year. That’s a winning percentage of 63.8%. Over the last 22 seasons, home teams generally win at a rate of 58.1%. I know it’s early, but there is an explanation for this. It’s the replacement refs. It’s very possible they’re just much more easily swayed by crowds. Home teams generally have an advantage for this reason, but it’s possible it’s just more pronounced this year with inferior refs. Seattle is normally one of the loudest stadiums in the NFL and it’s only going to be louder on Monday Night Football. I don’t trust the refs to make the right calls and if they’re going to be getting them wrong, it’s probably going to be in Seattle’s favor tonight.

2. The public is getting murdered this year. On bets with more than 80% of the action on one side, the public is 4-11 this year. This game is one of those cases with Green Bay having more than 80% of the action. Still, the line is dropping from -4 to -3.5 or -3 at some places. I don’t want to be siding with the public, given how they’ve fared this year, when there’s opposite line movement. The odds makers might know something the general public doesn’t and it’s possible that reason 1 is part of it.

3. New England lost. This will make sense in a bit. Every year, one team goes from having a 1st round bye to out of the playoffs. Last year, the 4 team that had a 1st round bye were New England, Baltimore, San Francisco, and Green Bay. The AFC is so weak this year that I can’t see either Baltimore or New England missing the playoffs unless they were legitimately not good enough and both them of looked it last night. The Ravens actually have a better chance of missing the playoffs because they play in a division with Pittsburgh and Cincinnati, while New England just has Miami, Buffalo, and the Revis-less Jets to deal with, but Baltimore also just won head-to-head.

The NFC, however, is a much stronger conference. Several deserving teams are going to miss the playoffs. There isn’t a single awful team in the conference. Their only 0-3 team is the Saints and you still can’t feel comfortable counting them out. The 6 or worst teams in the NFL, Cleveland, Jacksonville, Oakland, Miami, Kansas City, Indianapolis, they’re all in the AFC. Who does the NFC have that’s that bad? Minnesota and Arizona were supposed to be that bad. They’re 5-1. Carolina? St. Louis? Tampa Bay? Maybe? The AFC and NFC are 4-8 when they play each other this year.

For that reason, I have a feeling that the team that goes from 1st round bye to out of the playoffs is in the NFC. San Francisco is a candidate because they just fell flat against the Vikings, but they also beat the Packers head to head in Lambeau and they have, what I feel, is the easier division. Green Bay has had one good defensive performance and one bad one and the good one game on a short week against a discombobulated Bears team. If what we saw week 1 from their defense is really their defense (which makes sense given their reliance on takeaways last year), they can definitely lose this game and with a tough schedule, it wouldn’t be outrageous that they could miss the playoffs. As long as I can get field goal protection, I’m taking the points.

Seattle Seahawks 24 Green Bay Packers 23 Upset Pick +155

Pick against spread: Seattle +3.5 (-110) 3 units

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Cincinnati Bengals at Washington Redskins: Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 3 NFL Picks, Bengals, Commanders

Cincinnati Bengals (1-1) at Washington Redskins (1-1)

Before the season, I identified 5 overrated and 5 underrated teams, with the idea of betting on them (or against them) until they proved me wrong or the odds makers caught up. This served me well as I’m 10-4 this year on games involving those 10 teams  (and one of those losses is because I abandoned shipped on the Bills after week 1 and picked the Chiefs last week). However, two weeks into the season, I’ve had to adapt that a little. However, one thing remains the same. I still feel the Bengals are overrated.

In the opener, they got destroyed by a Baltimore team that I also saw as overrated because their injuries and other losses defensively. That assessment of the Ravens has proven to be true as they’ve allowed 808 yards in 2 games, 27th in the NFL. The Bengals, however, managed just 323 of those yards. Andy Dalton, especially, struggled. He completed 22 of 37 for 221 yards and a pick. Those numbers don’t even tell the whole story. Only 80 of those 221 yards were in the air; the rest were after the catch. He settled for short stuff all night, completing just 4 passes that went more than 10 yards through the air (4 of 11) and his adjusted QB rating of 66.2 was 26th out of 32 starting quarterbacks in the NFL week 1.

Last week, Dalton played better against the lowly Browns’ defense, completing 24 of 31 for 318 yards, 3 touchdowns, and an interception, but he was still just 5 of 10 on throws longer than 10 yards through the air (as a rookie, he was 83 of 173). Even last week, only 165 of his 318 yards were through the air. The more troubling thing from that game is that their defense, which was torched by Joe Flacco in the opener, was once again torched by Brandon Weeden.

Through 2 games, the Bengals have allowed 49 of 69 for 710 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions to two quarterbacks who are a combined 34 of 77 for 325 yards, 1 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions in their other games. Part of that has to do with their competition’s competition (both Weeden and Flacco have also faced Philadelphia, but Cincinnati has really done a poor job in pass coverage this year). Despite an average schedule at best, the Bengals rank 31st in the league in yards per play differential, which is my favorite stat and one I feel does the best job of summing up how a team has played and of projecting how they will play in the future.

Last year, the Bengals were 0-8 against playoff teams. A big part of the reason was that Andy Dalton really struggled in those 8 games, completing 55.6% of his passes for an average of 6.5 YPA, 7 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. He’s a physically limited quarterback, but offensive coordinator Jay Gruden does a great job of masking his weaknesses and highlighting his strengths. However, that doesn’t really fly against good defense.

The good news for Dalton and the Bengals is that the Redskins don’t really have a good defense. They have a great offense, which is why their yards per play differential is positive, but they have one of the worst opponent yards per play averages in the league. In the opener, they played the Saints, which is excusable, but last week and gave up 452 yards to the Rams. That’s not excusable. They’re also banged up right now as Adam Carriker and Brian Orakpo are done for the season and Josh Wilson is expected to be out at least this game. Their absences were part of the reason why they were so bad last week defensively.

Carriker’s absence isn’t huge because he’s just a marginal starter and they have a 2011 2nd round pick in Jarvis Jenkins waiting in the wings. The other two hurt much more. Josh Wilson was a solid starting cornerback in an overall weak secondary. He’ll be replaced in the starting lineup by Cedric Griffin, who is a fine nickel cornerback, but he’s struggled whenever he’s been counted on to start in the past. Orakpo’s injury is the killer. Not only is it season ending, but he’s their best pass rusher, but they have no depth behind him. Rob Jackson will get the start this week. The Redskins still have Ryan Kerrigan to pressure the quarterback, but this defense is really lacking in talent right now and the Bengals will be able to move the ball on them.

Cincinnati, meanwhile, is heading in the opposite direction injury wise, at least defensively, as they’re getting healthier. This is a welcome sight for a defense that has been torched in the first 2 games. Because of injuries, they’ve had to feature washed up guys like Nate Clements and Terence Newman in the secondary, next to Leon Hall, who is still not 100% just 10 months removed from an Achilles tear, and they’ve also been without top pass rusher Carlos Dunlap. Rookie cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick will not return this week, but cornerback Jason Allen and Dunlap are expected to.

Allen will help in the secondary and Dunlap will help a pass rush that has ranked 23rd in pass rush efficiency without him. Leon Hall, who has been uncharacteristically torched in the first 2 games, surrendering 10 completions for 143 yards and a touchdown on 14 attempts, is another week healthier closer to 100% this week. However, Robert Griffin and this offense has been unstoppable in the first 2 games, even by a solid Rams defense, so they should have no problem moving the ball on the Bengals defense that is average at best.

Still, I think the Bengals are overrated. Even with those two teams trending in opposite directions injury wise, there’s no way these two teams are even like this line suggests (3 points for home field advantage). Cincinnati got blown out by an overrated Baltimore team that doesn’t have the defense they normally do and then only beat a crappy Browns team without their top defensive player by 7. Washington, meanwhile, went into to New Orleans and beat a Saints team that hadn’t lost their in 9 games last season, and then hung close with an underrated Rams team in St. Louis. Now they head home and they should be able to win pretty easily here. Injuries are the only reason this isn’t a bigger bet.

Update: Josh Wilson is expected to play, which is a boost to an ailing Redskins defense. Also, I forgot to mention, week 1 rookie starting quarterbacks are 8-1 SU and ATS since 2008. I’m adding an extra unit to Washington.

Public lean: Washington (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Cincinnati covers)

Washington Redskins 31 Cincinnati Bengals 20

Pick against spread: Washington -3 (-115) 4 units

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Kansas City Chiefs at New Orleans Saints: Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 3 NFL Picks, Chiefs, Saints

Kansas City Chiefs (0-2) at New Orleans Saints (0-2)

I don’t think anyone really knew how the Saints would respond to BountyGate and the corresponding BountyGate penalties. Would they fall flat? Would they go into eff you mode? Would it not really matter? I leaned more on the positive side because Sean Payton was an offensive coach and Drew Brees could handle the offense by himself basically and because they wouldn’t be changing much scheme wise. I also acknowledged that the Saints had one of the most talented rosters in the NFL and would have probably been my Super Bowl pick in ordinary circumstances. However, here the Saints stand 2 games into the season at 0-2, a record at which teams go on to make the playoffs about 12% of the time. In terms of yards per play differential, they rank a mere 28th.

What’s interesting is that their problems have not really been offensive. They’re not the prolific offense they were last year, but 59 points in 2 games isn’t half bad. The problem is the defense, specifically the pass defense. They’ve surrendered 72 points total and are allowing 12.5 YPA, a ridiculous number considering the next worst team is at 9.7 YPA (for reference, the NFL record for YPA allowed in a season is 8.8, by the 2008 Lions). They also rank 25th in pass rush efficiency.

So what’s happened? Isn’t Steve Spagnuolo a Super Bowl winning defensive coordinator? Wasn’t he supposed to coach up their young pass rushers? Isn’t that his specialty? Wasn’t Sean Payton an offensive Head Coach? It’s not that they miss Jonathan Vilma, because he was terrible last year and replacements Curtis Lofton and David Hawthorne are much better than he is. Do they miss Gregg Williams and his excellent motivational speeches?

Well, one of the problems has been injuries. Jabari Greer, their top cornerback, missed the opener and was limited in their 2nd game, while nickel cornerback Johnny Patrick has done the opposite. He left the opener with an injury and didn’t play last week. As a result, Corey White has had to play every defensive snap except for 2. As you would expect, the 5th round rookie cornerback has been torched, allowing 10 catches for 171 yards and a touchdown on 11 attempts. He is currently ProFootballFocus’ 2nd worst rated cornerback.

The good news is that Greer should be closer to 100% this week and Patrick will be back, so White will go back to being the 4th cornerback, where he belongs. This secondary is actually pretty talented. Last year, despite a league worst pass rush in pass rush efficiency, they ranked 14th against the pass. All 4 starters allowed less than 60% completion. Being closer to full strength should help their coverage problems, even if the pass rush doesn’t step up.

One other thing that’s in play is their schedule. Neither Carolina nor Washington is a football powerhouse, but they can both pass the ball well and they’re hardly welcoming teams to a team trying to adjust to life without their Head Coach. This week, their opponent is much more welcoming. The Chiefs are also 0-2 and rank one spot lower than the Saints in yards per play differential at 29th. They haven’t been competitive either of their games, something only the Titans can also say, losing both by at least 16 points and last week they were down 35-3 to the Bills after 3 quarters before 2 garbage time touchdowns.

They’ve been just as bad defensively as the Saints have. They’ve allowed 75 points in 2 games. Allowing 40 points in the opener to Atlanta is excusable because they were down their top two defensive players in Tamba Hali and Brandon Flowers and facing a very tough offense, but allowing 35 to the Bills at close to full strength is not excusable. Romeo Crennel is a great defensive coordinator, but he’s also the Head Coach, so you have to wonder if he has too much on his plate to coordinate a successful defense like he did last year. This team’s conservative game plan had been scrapped in the first 2 games as they’ve passed 75 times to 57 runs, which has put a lot of pressure on Matt Cassel and they’ve predictably turned the ball over 6 times, 2nd worst in the league.

I don’t give them any chance of stopping Drew Brees and company this week so it will be more playing from behind for the Chiefs and even against New Orleans’ pass defense, I don’t think Matt Cassel will be able to keep up the way Robert Griffin and Cam Newton did, especially with New Orleans being much closer to 100% in this one injury wise defensively. The Saints are also in their 3rd game without Sean Payton and they should get better as the season goes on. Besides, teams that make the playoffs and then start 0-2 the following year are 16-7 ATS since 2003 week 3. Typically, talented former playoff teams get things together by week 3.

I expect that to continue to be the case here as the Saints at home, where they are still 9-1 ATS in their last 10 despite the week 1 loss, should blow out the lowly Chiefs, who have been blown out an awful lot over the last 2 plus years. 11 of their 18 losses over the last 2 plus years have been by 16 or more points, including playoffs. This game should make it 12 of 19. New Orleans is also my Survivor Pick for anyone still alive (namely, people who didn’t listen to me last week when I picked New England). It might sound weird to pick an 0-2 team in survivor, but all of the good teams are either playing each other this week or on the road and I’m pretty confident the Saints will win here at home against the Chiefs. I can’t see them going 0-3.

Three things keep this from being a bigger bet. One is a trend that says that teams in their 2nd straight road game as underdogs off a loss are 57-38 ATS since 2008. The other is just the size of the line. Even though I expect a blow out game, I don’t like betting heavily on big favorites. Three, most of the action is on New Orleans this week. I like to go against the public every chance I get (the public is 13-19 this year and getting killed in games like this where a ton of the action is on one side), but I’m still taking New Orleans for a moderate sized wager.

Public lean: New Orleans (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Kansas City covers)

New Orleans Saints 37 Kansas City Chiefs 20 Survivor Pick (HOU, NE)

Pick against spread: New Orleans -9 (-105) 3 units

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