Buffalo Bills (2-2) at San Francisco 49ers (3-1)

How can the Bills possibly keep up with the 49ers this week? They’ll be completely flat off that divisional loss to the Patriots. That seems to the public opinion because the public is pounding San Francisco. The public is generally wrong, however. That’s why the odds makers are rich. This year has been no different as the public is getting killed, especially on big leans like this one, and sure enough, there are some things that the public seems to be overlooking.

The Bills loss to the Patriots last week does not put them in a bad situation to cover the spread. In fact, it’s the opposite. Teams that blow divisional halftime leads and lose by 14 or more are 20-11 ATS since 1989, including 5-1 ATS after losing by 21 or more. It seems that outplaying the team for a half is more important going forward than blowing the lead.

The Bills did look good in that game for at least 2 and ½ quarters and looked well on their way to victory against a tough very opponent before the Patriots went on a huge run that I’m not sure many defenses could have stopped. Remember, the Bills defense, which they put a lot of resources into this offseason, had allowed 31 points in their previous 2 games and it’s not like the 49ers have a good offense. Furthermore, teams are 23-11 ATS since 1989 as non-divisional dogs of 10+ off a divisional loss of 21 or more. The Bills are also 14-6 ATS in their last 20 instances off a loss to the Patriots.

That being said, I actually do think the public has the right side this week, if only by accident. Buffalo lost two starting offensive linemen last week, both of whom will be out this week. In spite of that and the Bills’ big loss and the 49ers’ big win last week, this line has only shifted 1 point. Those two offensive lineman alone are worth more than 2 points.

They rank 1^st in the league in pass blocking efficiency, as they did last year before injury, and that’s so important because Ryan Fitzpatrick really struggles under pressure. Ryan Fitzpatrick’s under pressure accuracy percentage (doesn’t count drops, throw aways, hit as throwns, spikes, or batted passes) was just 53.3% last season, 29th out of 35 eligible quarterbacks. In 2010, his first season as a full-time starter, he ranked 33rd out of 34 players under pressure, by being accurate of 50.0% of his under pressure snaps. He also threw 8 picks to 2 touchdowns under pressure. It’s no coincidence that their once promising season was derailed once injuries hit on their offensive line last year.

Against a tough 49ers defense, missing two offensive linemen, I think we’re going to get bad Ryan Fitzpatrick this week. Besides, teams are 40-22 ATS after a road shutout win and the 49ers are in that situation this week, after shutting out the Jets in New York last week. It’s not a huge play at all because of some of the trends I mentioned working in Buffalo’s favor and because San Francisco doesn’t really have the offense to be comfortable laying 10 points with them, but I think San Francisco is the right side. San Francisco is also my survivor pick of the week for anyone still alive (like, you know, people who haven’t been listening to me).

Public lean: San Francisco (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Buffalo covers)

Sharps lean: SF 16 BUF 9

The sharps really like San Francisco. I’m going to add a unit. I hate picking big favorites, especially defensive minded ones, but Buffalo could be pretty awful offensively without Cordy Glenn and Kraig Urbik against this brutal San Francisco defense. I’m feeling a blowout.

San Francisco 49ers 27 Buffalo Bills 10 Survivor Pick (HOU, NE, NO, BAL)

Pick against spread: San Francisco -9.5 (-110) 2 units

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