Cincinnati Bengals (3-2) at Cleveland Browns (0-5)

Last week I noted that, assuming Cleveland, Jacksonville, and Washington don’t make the playoffs and Baltimore does, the Bengals were 12-0 against non-playoff teams since Andy Dalton took over week 1 last year, and 0-10 against playoff teams. For that reason, I didn’t make a big play on Miami, even though I felt they were the right side, because it wasn’t a huge spread. Miami ended up winning. Unless Miami is a playoff team, that spotless record seems to be gone.

I had the Bengals as an overrated team coming into the season because of their struggles against good teams and now they appear to be overrated once again. Look at who they’ve beaten, Washington (2-3), Cleveland (0-5), and Jacksonville (1-4). The latter two are the two worst teams in these Power Rankings and they only beat Cleveland in Cincinnati by 7.

They’re now a dark horse team in the running to be the team that goes from out of the playoffs to 5 wins or fewer, which is where I had them before the season. After this a game in Cleveland this week, potentially a trap game, the Bengals face Pittsburgh, Denver, the Giants, San Diego, Dallas, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and Baltimore, all of whom could easily make the playoffs. After Cleveland, their only remaining easy opponents are Oakland and Kansas City.

Fortunately, the Bengals do have yet another game against an expected non-playoff team here this week. They aren’t 12-0 against non-playoff teams and expected non-playoff teams anymore, but 12-1 isn’t bad. That being said, they could be caught looking forward to next week’s contest against Pittsburgh. Andy Dalton knows he’s never beaten a playoff team. This whole team knows that. Pittsburgh has been regarded as the class of the division for so many years, so that’s going to be a huge benchmark game for them.

Given that, they could overlook the 0-5 Browns. Divisional favorites before being divisional dogs are just 30-67 ATS since 2002. Meanwhile, home dogs are 18-11 ATS this season, so that’s something. The Bengals are also just 10-21 ATS as favorites since 2007. You’d think that would be improved with their dominance over bad teams over the past year, but they are just 4-4 ATS in that situation since 2011, so it’s pretty inconclusive.

Speaking of the 0-5 Browns, teams that are 0-5 or worse are 78-53 ATS as a dog since 2002. This makes some sense. No one wants to bet a winless team this far into the season so the odds makers can inflate the spread a little bit and be sure that the public will still bet against the winless team. That seems to be what’s happening here as most of the action is on Cincinnati.

Meanwhile, we are getting a little bit of line value in this one because the true line (calculated by taking the difference in yards per play differential, dividing by .15 and adding 3 points either way for home field advantage) is -1.5. That doesn’t even take into account that Cincinnati has had an awfully easy schedule, while the Browns have had to play the Giants, Eagles, and Ravens, 3 teams who could easily be playoff teams at the end of the year. With the exception of last week’s loss to the Giants, they hung within 6 of their other two opponents. Meanwhile, that loss to the Giants was a lot closer than the final score would suggest. They’re not as bad as their record would suggest and Cincinnati isn’t as good as their record would suggest.

I know the Browns could be without D’Qwell Jackson and Ahytba Rubin in this one, but they are getting back Joe Haden, so those should cancel out on the defensive side of the ball. It’s not a huge play because I hate making big plays on winless teams to win, but Cleveland does feel like the right side this week, like Miami did last week, and with Cincinnati coming off a loss to an expected non-playoff team and with a huge divisional game against Pittsburgh next on Cincinnati’s schedule, I feel more confident taking Cleveland than I did taking Miami last week.

Public lean: Cincinnati (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Cleveland covers)

Sharps lean: CIN 24 CLE 8

Final update: The LV Hilton line is PK, so I kind of understand why people are picking Cincinnati. I’m not changing this one.

Cleveland Browns 23 Cincinnati Bengals 20 Upset Pick +110

Pick against spread: Cleveland +2.5 (-110) 2 units

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