Buffalo Bills (2-3) at Arizona Cardinals (4-1)

Last week, I called the Arizona Cardinals one of the worst 4-0 teams ever. With Kevin Kolb as their quarterback, no offensive line, and no running game, last week’s offensive catastrophe was inevitable and I don’t think it’s the last one. There’s a reason I frequently ranked them lower than their record and picked against them. For as good as their defense is, their offense is equally bad. They actually rank just 28th in the league in yards per play differential, thanks to a last place ranking in yards per play. They’ll still be in the playoff race with a nice head start, but expect this team to finish somewhere around .500 once again this year. In general, I suggest continuing to ride the correction as a bettor.

However, their opponent this week is the Bills, who have looked awfully awful over the past 2 weeks. Since jumping out to a 21-7 lead against New England, they have been outscored by a total of 90-10 by New England and San Francisco, who beat them 45-3 last week. Their defense, which they invested so many resources into this offseason, has allowed 45 or more points in 3 of their 5 contests this year.

I, like many people, expected an improved defense from them thanks to offseason acquisitions of Mario Williams and Mark Anderson, as well as the return of defensive tackle Kyle Williams, a defensive player of the year candidate in 2010 before getting hurt last year. However, Williams and Anderson have been huge free agency busts, and the latter is probably done for the year with a knee injury. Meanwhile, their back 7 has been horrendous.

Playing the Cardinals might be exactly what they need though, given the Cardinals’ offensive issues. They allowed just 31 points combined week 2 and week 3 against Kansas City’s and Cleveland’s miserable offenses, so they are capable of shutting teams down if their opponents aren’t very good. Both of those games were easy wins for the Bills, though it’s worth noting that neither team had a defense like Arizona’s.

Buffalo is also missing several offensive lineman, including two week 1 starters and two guys who were supposed to step into the starting lineup for them. Recently signed off the streets, Reggie Wells could be their starting right guard, a huge problem against a tough defensive front like Arizona’s. Ryan Fitzpatrick has always struggled under pressure. A big part of the reason why this team declined last year was injuries to their offensive line.

We are getting some line value with Buffalo. Buffalo ranks just 1 spot below Arizona in yards per play differential, with a difference of .1, which translates to a real line of Arizona -3.5. This line is Arizona -5. It’s not a huge difference at all, but it’s worth noting that before the Bills’ loss to the 49ers, they ranked much better in that category.

They just lost the yards per play battle in San Francisco by 3.5 yards per play, which is pathetic, but if you don’t want to put too much stock into one bad game against a very good opponent, you could actually argue the Bills have a good deal of line value this week since Arizona has been around the bottom of the league in that stat all season. The odds makers seem to be putting a great deal of value into that game as, despite the fact that Arizona imploded offensively last week, this line has actually shifted a point in favor of Arizona since last week. Last week, this line was -4. Still, the public is betting Arizona because of how bad the Bills have looked in the past couple of weeks.

Speaking of how bad the Bills have looked in the past few weeks, teams that lose back-to-back games by 20+ are 33-16 ATS the following week. Those teams tend to be undervalued and desperate. I already covered how the Bills are undervalued, but at 2-3, if they have any hopes of making the playoffs, the Bills need a win here to stop the bleeding against a team that’s vulnerable. Arizona, meanwhile, might be more focused on a trip to Minnesota next week. At 4-1, this isn’t a must win game or anything for them at all. Buffalo is also playing for respect as they’ve currently replaced the Jets as the laughing stock of the league.

The Bills are also in another good spot as road dogs after a loss as road dogs. Teams in this situation are 60-40 ATS since 2008. They’re also dogs before being favorites as they host Tennessee last week. Teams in that situation are 73-48 ATS since 2011, including 20-8 ATS off a loss as a dog. Finally, even if Arizona does win, it probably won’t be by very many.

With the exception of that weird game against Philadelphia, the Cardinals have won every game this season by 3 points or fewer. This is nothing new for them. Last season, all 8 of their wins were by a touchdown or less, including a ridiculous 5 wins by 4 or fewer. Of their 3 wins by more than 4 last year, only Carolina week 1 was decided in regulation. In 2010, 3 of their 5 wins were by 4 or fewer. Since Kurt Warner retired after the 2009 season, this team has won a total of 4 games by more than 4 points in regulation. As a result, they are just 1-3 ATS as favorites of more than a field goal in that time period.

This should be a low scoring, close game so even if Arizona wins, I feel safe getting 5 points. Besides, teams who score 3 or fewer points are just 2-6 ATS the following week since 1989 as favorites of more than a field goal when their opponent is also coming off a game in which they scored 3 or fewer points. This makes complete sense because no team deserves to be laying more than a field goal if they have major offensive issues, no matter who they are playing.

Public lean: Arizona (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Buffalo covers)

Sharps lean: BUF 8 ARI 7

Final update: No change.

Buffalo Bills 16 Arizona Cardinals 13 Upset Pick +190

Pick against spread: Buffalo +5 (-110) 3 units

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