Dallas Cowboys (2-2) at Baltimore Ravens (4-1)

Since their impressive win over the Patriots week 3, the Ravens have fallen flat in back-to-back games against inferior opponents, winning by just 6 at home against Cleveland and winning by just 3 in Kansas City last week. Does this mean they’re not as good as they once looked? Not necessarily. They won 12 games and were within a “Billy Cundiff” of sending the AFC Championship game to overtime, but they still lost to Jacksonville, Tennessee, San Diego, and Seattle, all inferior teams they should have beaten. They also had 3 and 6 point home wins respectively against Arizona and Cleveland. They just seem to play down to the level of their competition, but that doesn’t make them a bad team.

While the play down to the level of their competition, they also play up to the level of their competition. With the exception of the aforementioned loss to the Patriots in the AFC Championship game, they were 7-0 against playoff teams last year. This year, they’ve played two likely playoff teams, New England and Philadelphia, splitting the pair, but it’s worth noting that their close loss to the Eagles was on the road. They’ve lost just one home game to a playoff team in the last 2 seasons, a 3 point home loss to the Steelers in 2010. Assuming the Patriots make the playoffs this year, they are 8-1 at home against eventual playoff teams in the last 2 plus seasons, so they should bounce back against a quality opponent this week.

I would say the Ravens’ struggles in the past 2 weeks make them underrated, but Dallas might be equally underrated. When last we saw them, they were getting blown out on Monday Night Football, but they were playing a very good opponent and hung pretty even in the yards per play differential category. They lost because they lost the turnover battle 5 to 1 and because 2 of their 5 turnovers were returned for 6. There’s not really a skill in returning turnovers for touchdowns. The numbers show it’s more luck than anything. It’s more about where you are when you get the turnover.

Besides, turnover differentials even out on a week to week basis. If you look at every possible turnover differential that a team can have, teams in each group tend to average a turnover differential of about +0.0 the following week, no matter how good or bad they were in this area the following week. You can see more, here. That’s why I prefer to look at yards per play differentials. Yards tend to be more consistent on a week to week basis.

The Cowboys actually rank 2^nd in the league in this category, though that is slightly skewed because it doesn’t take into account penalty yardage, something that’s not inconsistent on a week to week basis and an issue the Cowboys have had for over a year. They are, however, also healthier now as Jay Ratliff will make his season debut and Anthony Spencer will return from injury. Baltimore, meanwhile, ranks 3^rd. Only .1 yard per play separates these two teams, so the “real” line should be Baltimore -2.5. It’s at -3.5, so it’s pretty insignificant line value, so it’s tough to call either team overrated or underrated. Besides, the Cowboys’ penalty issue should, at the very least, make up the difference.

So there’s no line value either way. How about the public? What are they doing this week? The public seems to be more down on Dallas after their Monday Night performance than Baltimore as Baltimore is being pretty heavily publicly bet. I normally like to fade the public, but this is one instance where I agree with them. Baltimore always rises to the occasions with these tough tests and they have won their last 14 overall at home, dating back to that Pittsburgh loss. It’s a small play on the hosts.

Public lean: Baltimore (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Dallas covers)

Sharps lean: DAL 24 BAL 9

Final update: This is one of the biggest sharps lean of the week. I understand the appeal with Dallas coming off an embarrassing loss and a bye, but Baltimore is underrated as well after two less than stellar performances and they always play well at home, especially against tough competition. I considering dropping a unit, but I am keeping this at 2.

Baltimore Ravens 27 Dallas Cowboys 20

Pick against spread: Baltimore -3.5 (-110) 2 units

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