Denver Broncos (2-3) at San Diego Chargers (3-2)
From 2003-2010, Peyton Manning was 14-2 ATS as an underdog. This year he is 0-3. Does that mean he’s done or not the same player? Not necessarily. His QB rating is actually 6 points higher than his career average and his completion percentage (66.0%), his YPA (7.7), and his TD/INT ratio (11/3) are all better or equal to his career averages.
This week, we get another chance to bet on him as an underdog, and I’m going to take it for the 3rd straight time (I didn’t take it in Atlanta week 2 because of how good Matt Ryan is at home). I can’t really explain why he’s 0-3 ATS as a dog this year. He’s not playing poorly. His team isn’t either, ranking 4th in the NFL in yards per play differential (more on that later). I just expect it to eventually correct itself. Manning on Monday Night Football is another good betting spot, as he’s 10-5 ATS on Monday Nights, even including that week 2 loss to Atlanta.
Now onto that aforementioned 4th ranked yards per play differential, they have the edge by .9 yards per play over San Diego, who is actually negative. Divide that by .15 to get 6 and add 3 points for home field and you get a “real” line of Denver -3. Not only are we getting Peyton Manning as a dog, but we’re getting Peyton Manning as a dog in a situation where he deserves to be the favorite.
I haven’t been impressed at all by San Diego’s “strong start.” Not only are they negative in yards per play differential, they haven’t really beaten anyone. Much like last year, this normally slow starting team (10-13 in weeks 1-6 and 38-20 afterwards from 2007-2010) has a good early record because they’ve beaten up on crappy teams. Is anyone impressed by their wins over Oakland (1-3), Tennessee (2-4), and Kansas City (1-4)? How about their home blowout loss to the Falcons (5-0) or their loss in New Orleans (1-4)? The Broncos, meanwhile, have a brutal schedule (Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Houston, Oakland, New England) and have still yet to lose by more than 10.
The Broncos are also have a few trends on their side. Road dogs are 60-40 ATS since 2008 off a loss as road dogs. Meanwhile, teams are 73-48 ATS as dogs before being favorites since 2011, including 20-8 ATS off a loss as dogs. The Broncos host the Saints next week. The Broncos do have a bye in between, which weakens the trend a bit, but dogs before a bye who will be favorites after the bye are 52-33 ATS since 1989, so there’s still a trend.
I hate betting on publicly backed underdogs, which is what Denver is this week and we’ve lost some line value because this opened at -3, but the large amount of action on Denver has brought it down to -1, which is another bad sign. The odds makers seem to not mind if people bet on Denver, or maybe even they want them to. That being said, I love Denver this week.
The combination of getting points with Peyton Manning and the better team, on Monday Night Football, with powerful situational trends in their favor is too much to pass on. This is a significant play. Instead of putting 3 units on the spread and 1 unit on the money line, I’m putting all 4 on the money line. 1 point games are rare, about 2% of the time, and it’s not worth the extra 15 cents to be protected against something that would hurt me 1% of the time.
Public lean: Denver (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if San Diego covers)
Sharps lean: DEN 18 SD 9
Final update: No change.
Denver Broncos 27 San Diego Chargers 17 Upset Pick +105 4 units
Pick against spread: Denver +1 (-110) 0 units
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