New York Giants (3-2) at San Francisco 49ers (4-1)

The San Francisco 49ers are the best team in the league. At least that’s what yards per play differential says and it’s not even really close. They are gaining 1.9 yards per play more than they are allowing and they rank in the top-5 in both yards per play and yards per play allowed, something no other team in the league can say. In fact, no other team has a yards per play differential higher than 1.0. The Giants, meanwhile, are even at 0.0 yards per play. An old gambling formula says to divide the difference by .15 and add 3 points either way for home field advantage. Given that, the 49ers should be -15.5 point favorites this week.

If that sounds absolutely ridiculous to you, you’re not alone. That sounds absolutely ridiculous to me too and I love that formula. This is one of those instances where it’s necessary to use a human element. In the last 2 weeks, the 49ers have outgained their opponents by 2.7 yards per play and 3.5 yards per play respectively, translating, not surprisingly, to a 34-0 win and a 45-3 win.

Before the last two weeks, however, the 49ers were outside of the top-5 in yards per play differential. They weren’t bad or anything, but they didn’t look nearly as impressive as they do now. What they’ve done the last 2 weeks is incredibly impressive. I don’t want to take anything away from them. But I don’t think it’s fair to put so much stock into 2 games against crappy teams that a team goes from being good to being miles and miles away better than everyone else and deserving of being 15.5 point home favorites against a worthy opponent. I do think we’re getting some line value with the 49ers, but not 9 points worth. Remember, the 49ers have yet to beat a team who currently has a winning record.

However, the public seems to think we’re getting line value with the Giants and they have made the Giants public underdogs. In spite of that, this line keeps climbing, which is indicative of a trap line. Between the line value and the likely trap line, you’d think this would be an easy pick for me, but it’s not because there are some very good trends on the Giants’ side.

I mentioned how well the 49ers have done the last two weeks. Well, that may have made them overvalued and overconfident. Teams are 18-34 ATS since 1989 after back-to-back wins of 24 or more. The Giants, meanwhile, are in a “nobody believes in us” spot, which they normally do well in. Since Tom Coughlin took over in 2004, they are 38-21 ATS as underdogs.

Since Coughlin took over in 2004, they are also very good on the road and in the 1^st half of the season. Since 2004, they are 48-25 ATS on the road, as opposed to just 34-37 ATS at home. As road dogs, they are 31-16 ATS. In that same time period, they are 45-18 straight up and 39-24 ATS from weeks 1-8 and 35-39 straight up and 39-35 ATS after week 8. They’re also in a good spot as dogs before being favorites. Teams tend to be extra focused on that spot, going 73-48 ATS since 2011.

At the end of the day, I’m taking the 49ers because the combination of line value and a potential trap line, while betting against a public underdog is too good to pass on. However, it’s not a big play at all. The Giants thrive in this exact situation (and have 2 other trends in their favor), even if the 49ers do appear to be the significantly better team.

Public lean: NY Giants (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if San Francisco covers)

Sharps lean: SF 16 NYG 10

Final update: Sharps like San Francisco, but I still can’t put more than a unit on either side.

San Francisco 49ers 27 New York Giants 20

Pick against spread: San Francisco -6.5 (-110) 1 unit

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