Minnesota Vikings (4-1) at Washington Redskins (2-3)

There’s still no line posted for this for some reason, even though Robert Griffin is widely expected to play, but I’m going to do this write up anyway. Last week, the line was Washington -2 for this game, so I’d be surprised if we got anything lower than Washington -1 or PK. Given that Minnesota is probably going to be a dog in this one, I’m probably going to make a big play on Minnesota.

Washington, assuming they are favored here, are favorites after losing as dogs and before being dogs (they go to New York to play the Giants next week). Teams are 53-77 ATS in that spot since 2008. Minnesota, meanwhile, is dogs before being favorites (they host Arizona next week). Teams are 75-44 ATS in that spot since 2011.

We’re also getting line value with the Vikings. The difference between these two teams’ yards per play differentials is .9. If you divide that by .15, you get 6 and add 3 points for home field advantage, you get a “real” line of -3, meaning we’re getting at least 3 points of line value with the Vikings. In fact, I think the Vikings are still underrated.

Unlike surprise teams like St. Louis and Arizona, Minnesota is absolutely for real. They are 5th in the league in yards per play differential. Last year, in the 9 games in which Ponder led the team in passing attempts, the team scored 22.9 points per game. Despite their 3-13 record, they had a Pythagorean Expectation of 6 wins, despite injuries to several key players.

Now Ponder is healthy and improved, behind a better offensive line. The coaching staff is finally using Percy Harvin properly and he’s emerged as one of the better receivers in the league. Meanwhile, their defense is much improved thanks to the return of Antoine Winfield and Chris Cook, as well as young players playing better. After ranking 20th in the league in yards per play allowed last year, their young defense has broken out and now ranks 2nd. They’re for real and this might be one of the last chances we get to get them cheap and with line value.

As long as Washington is favored or this is a pick, this is going to be a significant play on Minnesota. If Minnesota is favored, it’ll be a smaller pick and maybe even a 1 unit pick. For some reason, this line is Minnesota -2.5 in Las Vegas Hilton, which is why the Sharps Lean 12 to 5 in favor of Minnesota, but that would be a 4.5 line movement from last week and I don’t see that happening, especially since Atlanta was just -3 last week. Stay tuned for a final pick. I hope we get an actual line soon.

Public lean: ?

Sharp lean: WAS 12 MIN 5

Final update: This line finally was posted late Saturday Night at even. Unfortunately, there’s no way of knowing the public lean on such short notice, so I can’t fade the public, but I still feel confident in Minnesota, even though it will be for only 2 units instead of 3 because we’ve lost line value. This spread moved 2 points from last week.

Minnesota Vikings 24 Washington Redskins 20

Pick against spread: Minnesota PK (-110) 2 units

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