New Orleans Saints (1-4) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-3)

The Saints got their first win 2 weeks ago at home on Sunday Night Football over the Chargers, but their problems are far from solved. They still have a horrific defense, which is a contributing factor to them ranking 26th in the league in yards per play differential and 23rd in rate of sustained drives differential. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, actually ranks 22nd and 25th in those two statistics, which means they match up pretty evenly with the Saints. However, they are still home underdogs here.

I’d like to go into the Buccaneers’ two rankings in those. Before last week’s blowout win over the Chiefs, they ranked significantly lower in both of those categories. I hate putting too much stock into one game, but I do feel like where they were before last week wasn’t a great indicator of the type of team they were. After all, they were just 4 games into the season and I had this as an underrated team heading into the season. I picked against them last week because of how poor they were in those two categories and obviously now I really regret giving up on a preseason underrated team of mine.

Let me get into why I thought they were underrated. In 2010, everything went right for this team. They had an easy schedule and went 9-1 against sub .500 teams (1-5 against everyone else). They turned the ball over just 19 times and, after regressing 6 wins from 2008 to 2009, predictably bounced back. Teams that regress 6 wins win an average of 3.0 more games the following season. The Buccaneers did that and more, going from 3 to 10 wins.

However, in 2011, they predictably declined. Like teams that regress by a big win total, teams that improve by a big win total also tend to go the other direction in the following season. Teams that improve 7 games win an average of 4.5 fewer games the following season. The Buccaneers are very familiar with this principle, going from 9 wins in 2008 to 3 in 2009 to 10 in 2010.

It was easy to see how they’d do it. They turned the ball over less than 20 times in 2010, which is an unsustainable stat for a team without a true elite quarterback. There have been 36 teams since 2002 with 20 or fewer turnovers. In their next season, those teams, have had, on average, 9.64 more turnovers and won 2.69 fewer games. They also had a much tougher schedule and proved in 2010 that they couldn’t beat tough competition.

The Buccaneers ended up regressing more than 4.5 wins. They regressed 6 wins and turned the ball over a whopping 40 times, going 4-12 and losing their last 10 after quitting on Head Coach Raheem Morris. They went from playing 6 games against teams that were .500 or better to 11 and didn’t improve, going 2-9 in those 11 games.

There was definitely reason to be optimistic for the Buccaneers this season. Teams that regress 6 wins win an average of 3.0 more games the following season and teams that turn the ball over 35 times or more have averaged 9.74 fewer turnovers the next season and have won 1.61 more games. Raheem Morris is gone and is replaced with a much more disciplinarian Head Coach in Greg Schiano and the team finally spent money in the offseason. Though they overpaid each one of them, I had no doubt that the trio of Vincent Jackson, Carl Nicks, and Eric Wright, overall, will have a positive impact on this team in 2012, as would several rookies and the return of Gerald McCoy from injury.

I also expected the new coaching staff to bring discipline to a team that missed the most tackles of any team since they started keeping the stat in 2011. Remember, this team had the 9th ranked defense in the league in 2010, allowing 19.9 points per game. I didn’t expect them to be that good, but fewer missed tackles, additions, bounce back years, maturation of young players, an easier schedule, and fewer turnovers from the offense (which puts a ton of pressure on the defense) should have helped this defense be more middle of the pack and right now they rank 12^th in points per game allowed.

I was wrong to give up on this preseason underrated team and for that reason, I don’t think it’s an overreaction to one game that I like this team once again. I don’t see how they are 5.5 points worse than the Saints on a neutral field (3 point for homefield advantage). Besides, the Saints struggle on the road even when they’re playing well, going 5-10 ATS as road favorites since 2010. They were road favorites in Tampa Bay last year and lost straight up as well, despite finished 13-3, so I don’t see why that can’t happen again this year. However, the public seems to see it differently as there’s a very heavy public lean on New Orleans. I love fading the public, especially on heavy leans.

This would be a bigger play, but I’m worried about New Orleans coming off a bye. Road favorites off a bye are 75-46 ATS since 2002, however just 34-25 ATS in the division, which isn’t as strong. Besides, I don’t even think the Saints deserve to be road favorites, considering how they’ve played this year and how they normally struggle on the road. I’m certainly not going to take the Saints as road favorites against a team I’m not sure they’re better than. Finally, the Buccaneers are 11-4 in the last 2 years against teams who finish worse than .500. This year, they’ve followed that trend, beating Kansas City and Carolina, but losing to Dallas, Washington, and the Giants. The Saints could easily end up under .500 this year.

Public lean: New Orleans (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Tampa Bay covers)

Sharps lean: NO 16 TB 10

Final update: Slight sharp lean on New Orleans, but Jimmy Graham has been ruled out for the Saints. I’m sticking with Tampa Bay for a small play.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 New Orleans Saints 24 Upset Pick +115

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay +2.5 (-110) 2 units

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