Cleveland Browns (1-5) at Indianapolis Colts (2-3)

Indianapolis is in a tough spot this week as favorites before being dogs and after losing as dogs. Teams are 54-78 ATS in that spot since 2008. Last week, they lost 35-9 to the Jets as 3.5 point dogs and next week they travel to Tennessee, where they will be dogs as well and in between, they get a home game against the Browns. They could easily be viewing this as a chance for an easy win and get caught looking forward to a game against a divisional rival in Tennessee. By the way, that trend becomes even more significant when the following game is a divisional clash. Teams are 17-30 ATS in this spot before a divisional clash.

In spite of that, the public still expects them to bounce back this week as it’s a fairly significant public lean on Indianapolis. I love to go against public leans as often as I can because the public loses every year. There’s a reason odds makers are rich. The odds makers are not a bad group to be siding with overall because they always make money.

That being said, I’m taking Indianapolis here for several reasons. The first is the line value we’re getting with the Colts. No matter which approach you use to compute line value, either yards per play differential or rate of sustaining drives differential, the Colts are the better team and we’re getting line value. I prefer to use both.

Yards per play differential overvalues teams that either get a lot of big plays, but struggle to sustain drives, or teams that don’t allow a lot of big plays, but can’t get off the field defensively. Those are the exact same teams that rate of sustaining drives undervalues. Using the two metrics together can provide a clearer picture of how teams are playing.

Using the yards per play differential method, this line should be -3.5 (Colts’ yards per play differential – Browns’ yards per play differential/.15 and then add 3 for home field). Using the rate of sustaining drives method, this line should be -8.5 (Colts’ rate of sustaining drives differential – Browns’ rate of sustaining drives differential/1.5 and then add 3 for home field). For the record, rate of sustaining drives means, on any given set of downs, how often do you get a 1^st down (or score) and vice versa for the defense. Either method, the Colts are the better team and we’re getting line value with them.

This line has moved 2 points from last week, when it was at -4 in favor of Indianapolis. That’s because Cleveland pulled out a “surprising” home victory over the Bengals, a victory that wasn’t surprising if you knew that Cincinnati was overrated and that home dogs are covering at a 66.7% rate this year. It’s also because the Colts got blown out by the Jets, which was more surprising, but still not enough reason for this line to be -2, which suggests that on a neutral field, Cleveland is better than Indianapolis by 1 point. Didn’t they just beat the Packers two weeks ago? Week 2 they beat the Vikings, which looks a lot better than now than it did then.

Also, Bill Simmons brought up an interesting point this week in his picks column. Dogs are dominating this year going 57-32 ATS. As a result, he believes, the odds makers seem to be shrinking lines. That makes sense. I just wished I liked more favorites this week. One example he brings up is Buffalo -3 over Tennessee, but both yards per play and rate of sustaining drives suggests those two teams are exactly equal. He also picks Jacksonville +4.5 over Oakland because he feels the line should have been shrunk there and it wasn’t because they’re overrating Oakland, which I totally agree with, but I would also add that they’re overrating them because the public is and they can afford not to shrink it. Oakland is a heavy public lean this week. In this case, however, it does seem that the odds makers have shrunken the spread because dogs are covering so much.

Besides, the Colts’ loss last week is explainable as they were coming off an emotional win over the Packers and completely overlooked the “pathetic” Jets. This week, they could easily have that positive ChuckStrong mojo going for them again. The biggest tangible reasons for their loss last week were their inability to stop the run and their -4 differential in turnovers. Anyone who reads these picks frequently know how much I hate to put much stock into turnover differential. On average, teams that win the turnover battle by 4 and teams that lose the turnover battle by 4 have the same turnover differential in their next game, about +0.0, and the same is true for every turnover differential in between.

Their inability to stop the run and their overall defensive struggles were a big part of the reason they lost last week as well and injuries can be blamed for that. Already missing Robert Mathis, Vontae Davis, and Pat Angerer last week, the Colts saw Cory Redding go down with an injury early. This week, Redding is going to be out once again, as is Mathis, but Davis and Angerer are expected to return to the lineup. Remember, Angerer has been out all season and Dwight Freeney went down early week 1. They haven’t been healthy all year. They still aren’t, but this is probably the healthiest they’ve been since the 1^st quarter of week 1. Even if it isn’t, they’ll be healthier than last week. The Colts are in a bad spot, but as long as we’re not field goal protection with the Browns, I’m taking the home team.

Public lean: Indianapolis (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Cleveland covers)

Sharps lean: CLE 17 IND 4

Final update: Sharps don’t like Indianapolis, but it’s worth noting the line for LV Hilton is -3. I don’t want to take the Browns on the road getting less than a field goal.

Indianapolis Colts 23 Cleveland Browns 20

Pick against spread: Indianapolis -2 (-110) 1 unit

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