Jacksonville Jaguars (1-4) at Oakland Raiders (1-4)

In the write up for Colts/Browns, I mentioned Bill Simmons’ theory from his picks column this week that because dogs are doing so well this year (57-32 ATS), the odds makers would start shrinking the spreads to compensate so the general public won’t catch on and just starting betting all dogs. He used that as part of his argument to pick Buffalo -3 over Tennessee and I used as part of my argument to pick Indianapolis -2 over Cleveland (I don’t think Buffalo and Tennessee are as unevenly matched as he thinks as they both have almost actually the same numbers in yards per play and rate of sustaining drives differential).

However, one thing we both agree on is that the spread has not been shrunk on this game. He took them at +4.5 and I would have too. Now, the spread has even jumped to +6. Given the rate dogs have been covering this year, there’s no way Oakland should be laying more than 3 at home. The reason behind this line not being shrunken is that the public seems to be overrating Oakland. After all, they won 8 games last year, beat Pittsburgh and almost beat Atlanta.

Even with a non-shrunken spread, there’s still a heavy public lean on Oakland. The odds makers have moved this line all the way up to 6 and still there’s heavy public action on Oakland. I love to fade heavy public leans because the public always ends up losing money. I’m not worried about the “fishy” line movement because it’s in the same direction of the line action and it’s also injury related. Daryl Smith, Dwight Lowery, and Laurent Robinson have all been ruled out when all looked like they could play earlier this week. Lowery and Robinson aren’t significant enough players for their absence to factor into this one and Smith has been out all year.

The argument behind Oakland being overrated is this: They won 8 games last year, but only had a Pythagorean Expectation of 6 wins. They also lost several key players in the offseason, including top cornerback Stanford Routt and Kamerion Wimbley. I called them overrated before the season and they have still managed to remain overrated despite a 1-4 record because of some “impressive performances.”

Yes, they beat Pittsburgh at home in Oakland, but so did Tennessee. Pittsburgh is just a horrific road team outside of the division. Last year, they almost lost to Curtis Painter and Tyler Palko on the road. The Atlanta game, meanwhile, can probably just be chalked up to Atlanta having a bad game or to the Falcons not being as good as their record. Remember, they beat Carolina by just 2 at home a couple weeks ago and they’re not any good either. Oakland has also lost in big blowout losses in Miami and Denver. They don’t deserve to be laying this many points over anyone, even the Jaguars, who are probably the league’s worst team.

The two measures of “real” line I normally use actually do say this line is reasonable or even a little small. The yards per play method says this line should be Oakland -12.5 and the rate of sustaining drives method says it should be -8. However, we need to add a human element to those formulas and realize they’re complete bullshit in this game. Jacksonville ranking by far dead last in both is skewing things. The yards per play method actually suggests everyone in the league would be at least 6.5 point favorites over Jacksonville, while the rate of sustaining drives method says everyone in the league would be at least 5.5 point favorites.

There’s actually a trend that says that Oakland doesn’t deserve to be laying this many points, even against an opponent as atrocious as Jacksonville. Teams that finished 6-10 or worse are 23-64 ATS since 2002. I know Jacksonville is atrocious, but I’d be willing to bet most of those teams that covered in those situations as 6+ dogs were as well. You kind of have to be to be dogs this big against a bad team. It’s unfortunate I don’t get to use this trend often (it also was in play 4 times last year), but I love using it when I can and with Oakland at 1-4 now, I think it’s safe to say I can.

Oakland is also in a bad spot as favorites after losing as dogs and before being dogs. Oakland lost in Atlanta last week and will go to Kansas City next week. Teams are 54-78 ATS in that spot since 2008, including 17-30 ATS when their opponent in the following week is divisional, which Kansas City obviously is. Jacksonville is horrible, but there are cases where every team is bettable. Oakland is unbettable in this spot and I do like Jacksonville a great deal. 23-64 ATS is hard to ignore. This is one of 3 co-picks of the week. I’m 8-2 on picks of the week and co-picks of the week this year.

Public lean: Oakland (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Jacksonville covers)

Sharps lean: JAC 12 OAK 7

Final update: LV Hilton line was at 4.5. I love Jacksonville at +6 because of the 6 and 6 rule. This is still a co-pick of the week.

Oakland Raiders 23 Jacksonville Jaguars 20

Pick against spread: Jacksonville +6 (-110) 4 units

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]