Pittsburgh Steelers (2-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-3)

What is wrong with the Steelers? After their recent loss in Tennessee, that’s all anyone can ask. Well, the problem is twofold. The first reason is that they just suck on the road as favorites outside of the division. They won 12 games last year and still barely beat Curtis Painter and Tyler Palko. This year, they’ve lost to Oakland and Tennessee.

In fact, in the Mike Tomlin era, generally a successful one, they are 5-15 ATS on the road outside of the division as favorites. Just like the Oakland loss, after which they beat Philadelphia at home, I don’t put a ton of stock into last week’s “surprising loss.” Inside the division, they are 6-5 ATS in that spot in that same time period and 10-6 ATS dating back to 2004, so I’m not worried that they’re favored on the road here again.

The other issue is injuries and this one could be more lingering and have a bigger effect on this game. Last week, already missing LaMarr Woodley and Troy Polamalu, they lost Maurkice Pouncey, Marcus Gilbert, Rashard Mendenhall, and Isaac Redman. Woodley is back this week, which is huge because it means, unless he reinjures himself, this will be the first game all season that LaMarr Woodley and James Harrison will both play in its entirety.

Maurkice Pouncey is also expected to suit up, which is very good news because backup Doug Legursky has time and time again proven himself to be an incapable replacement. Gilbert, however, will be out, which will hurt. Both Mendenhall and Redman will be as well, leaving Jonathan Dwyer to carry the load spelled by Baron Batch and Chris Rainey. However, they haven’t been a good run all year, so they’re not losing much.

The big injury is Troy Polamalu. He’s out once again this week. Since 2009, the Steelers are 7-9 in games without Troy Polamalu and allowed 21.9 points per game. With him, they are 27-8, allowing 14.4 points per game, with him. That’s not all him, but a lot of that is him. He’s their only irreplaceable defensive player and his mere presence can disrupt passing plays and running plays.

However, on the Bengals side, things aren’t going too well either. After starting 3-1, they’ve lost back-to-back games in upset fashion and despite being favored in 5 of their first 6 contests, they sit at just 3-3. Now they enter a tough stretch in which they could be dogs in 6-8 of their next 10. Last week, I picked against Cincinnati at Cleveland, expecting them to be caught looking forward to this big game, with Andy Dalton knowing he’s never beaten a playoff team or either the Steelers or Ravens (a combined 0-5 against those 2 and 0-9, assuming Baltimore makes it this year, against playoff teams).

However, now they’re home dogs after a loss as road favorites. Teams are 49-34 ATS in this spot since2008, including 11-4 ATS when both games are divisional. It makes sense. Last week, a team was good enough to be road favorites, then they lose, and now they’re home dogs all of a sudden. Besides, road favorites before being home dogs is a bad spot as teams have gone 67-102 ATS in that spot since 1989. Teams tend to be focused more on being home dogs than being road favorites and as a result are often better prepared for their next game than their opponent. They also can be undervalued off a disappointing game.

The Bengals, however, are not. Because of the Steelers’ “surprising loss”, this line has actually shifted more towards Cincinnati’s side, going from -3 in favor of Pittsburgh to -1. We’re getting line value with the Steelers, even if it’s very little. The yards per play method of computing line value suggests Pittsburgh should be favored by 3, while the rate of sustaining drives method suggests this should be a pick em. It’s very little line value, but it’s there and we also get a chance to bet against an overreaction. It’s also possible this is one of those “shruken line” games I’ve mentioned in early write ups. With dogs being 57-32 ATS on the year, it makes sense that the odds makers would shrink some lines to get more favorites to cover so the public doesn’t catch on and just start picking all dogs.

At the end of the day, I like Pittsburgh to continue their divisional dominance and their overall dominance of this matchup. The Steelers are 30-20 ATS in the division under Ben Roethlisberger, 25-17 ATS as favorites, and 10-6 ATS as road favorites. He’s also 13-4 ATS against the Bengals. Andy Dalton has still never beaten a playoff team and they’re looking pretty overrated, just like I predicted preseason, having lost to Cleveland and Miami, with wins against only Cleveland, Jacksonville, and Washington. I haven’t bet on them once this year and they’re 2-3-1 ATS, including 0-2 ATS in their last 2. I don’t intend to change that this week, as long as we don’t get field goal protection with the Bengals, though it’s a small play because there’s a lot of uncertainty in this one.

Public lean: Pittsburgh (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Cincinnati covers)

Sharps lean: CIN 19 PIT 7

Final update: I’m going to drop down a unit. I don’t really have a good feel for this one and the sharps like Cincinnati.

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 Cincinnati Bengals 20

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh -1 (-110) 1 unit

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