New York Giants (5-2) at Dallas Cowboys (3-3)
This line opened as Cowboys -1 and I was ready to make a big play on the Giants for several reasons. For starters, in the Tom Coughlin era, they are 39-21 ATS as a dog. Also in the Tom Coughlin era, they are 49-25 ATS on the road and 34-38 ATS at home. This shouldn’t surprise anyone who knows anything about this team. They play their best when people don’t believe in them and that’s often the case when they’re road dogs. Vice versa, they have a reputation for falling flat when expectations are high.
The 3rd reason has to do with the 1st half/2nd half disparity in the Tom Coughlin era, with regards of halves of the season. In the first 8 games of a season in the Tom Coughlin era, they are 52-19 SU, as opposed to 27-37 SU in the 2nd half of the season. Even last year, when they won the Super Bowl, they started 6-2, but finished 3-5 to end up at 9-7. In 2007, their first Super Bowl year, they did the same thing, starting 6-2 before finishing 4-4 to end up at 10-6.
Their schedule this year suggests they could have that type of year once again. After they play the Cowboys, the Giants host Pittsburgh, go to Cincinnati, go on a bye, host Green Bay, go to Washington, host New Orleans, go to Atlanta, go to Baltimore, and host Philadelphia. However, while the Cowboys opened as 1 point favorites, they are now 2 point dogs, a 3 point in week swing and a 4 point swing from when they were -2 last week.
The reason for that is the injury to middle linebacker Sean Lee. Lee is one of the best linebackers this year and was playing out of his mind this year. Only San Francisco’s NaVorro Bowman ranks higher at middle linebacker on ProFootballFocus than Lee. Losing him for the year will definitely hurt, but I don’t know if it’s worth a 3 point line movement by itself. That type of line movement is normally reserved for injuries to quarterbacks. It’s also worth noting that the public is still pounding the Giants.
In spite of that, I won’t be switching my pick to the Cowboys. I’ll simply be dropping units down to 1 unit on the Giants. Lee’s absence will hurt and the Giants are still on the road and in the first half of the season. Besides, the Giants are 17-7 ATS in the Tom Coughlin era as road favorites, surprisingly. And as much as I hate betting on a heavy public lean, it’s worth noting that the line movement is consistent with the action, so there’s no threat of a trap line. Besides, as I’ve mentioned, I love favorites this week because eventually that disparity between dogs and favorites (dogs are 63-39 ATS this year) will close. Neither dogs or favorites have finished over 10 games above .500 over the course of a whole season in at least the last decade.
Public lean: Oakland (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Kansas City covers)
Sharps lean: NYJ 18 DAL 8
Final update: One of just 4 clear sharps leans this week. I’m going to add a unit on the Giants. I like the Giants as road favorites a lot (17-7 ATS) and like favorites in general this week.
New York Giants 31 Dallas Cowboys 27
Pick against spread: NY Giants -2 (-110) 2 units
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