Philadelphia Eagles (3-4) at New Orleans Saints (2-5)
Andy Reid’s perfect 13-0 career record off the bye is gone. The Eagles are 3-4 and the sky is falling in Philadelphia. This line has shifted 1 point since last week. That might not seem like a whole lot, but a shift from -2 to -3 is huge because about 16% of games end with a final margin of victory of exactly 3, so field goal protection is huge. It takes a lot for odds makers to shift a line from under 2 to exactly 3. Well, I’m not so sure the sky is falling in Philadelphia.
They still rank 18th in yards per play differential and 13th in rate of sustaining drives differential. That’s not good, but it’s not horrible. They’ve always been a better 2nd half team under Andy Reid. Since he took over in 1999, the Eagles are 28-26 before the bye and 82-40 after. Just because he lost for the first time off a bye last week against an undefeated Falcons team, doesn’t mean that’s going to change. Besides, this is the exact type of game Andy Reid wins. Whenever it looks like the sky is falling, the Eagles always have a way of bouncing back. Remember when they beat the Giants after the Arizona game? In his career as underdogs, Andy Reid is 48-29, including 7-3 ATS as underdogs off a loss as favorites.
The Saints are in a good spot as well, at home, and off a loss. Drew Brees is 22-14 ATS off a loss with the Saints, including 16-6 ATS since 2008. He’s also 8-4 ATS as favorites off a loss as dogs, a number that improves to 7-0 ATS going back to 2008. He’s also 10-2 ATS at home dating back to last year. However, these aren’t the same Saints. They’ve already lost twice at home to the Redskins and Chiefs. They also almost lost at home to the Chargers, but Drew Brees’ pick six was called back by a penalty.
Brees looks the same. He’s now on pace for 5280 yards, which would be his 3rd career 5000 yard season, and he’s got a legitimate chance to do that if he continues to play this well or close to this well because of his team’s atrocious defense and running game. He’s currently on pace for 720 passing attempts, which would shatter Drew Bledsoe’s 18 year old record of 691.
However, just because Drew Brees looks like Drew Brees again doesn’t mean the Saints are the Saints again. They can’t run the ball or stop anyone. They rank dead last in the NFL in rushing yards and rushing attempts and 30th in rushing yards per carry. Defensively, they rank 30th against the run, dead last against the pass, dead last in pass rush efficiency, and 30th in points per game allowed, allowing 30.9 per game. As a result, they’ve had to pass 315 times to 139 runs, not including quarterback scrambles and sacks, which were designed passes that don’t count as pass attempts.
You might not think of defense and running the football when you think of the Saints, but whenever they’ve been good, it’s something they’ve done. In 2009 when they won the Super Bowl, they ranked 6th in the league in rushing yards, 7th in the league in YPC, and allowed just 21.3 points per game. Last year, when they won 13 games, they allowed 21.2 points per game, ranked 6th in rushing yards, and 4th in YPC.
This year, they remind me a lot more of the 2008 Saints, when Drew Brees threw for over 5000 yards, but the team went 8-8 because he didn’t have any help. They ranked 28th in rushing yards, 23rd in yards per carry, and allowed 24.6 points per game, good for 26th in the league. Their defense might be even worse. This line says these two teams are comparable, but I don’t think that’s true.
In fact, while Philadelphia ranks 18th and 13th respectively in yards per play differential and rate of sustaining drives differential, the Saints rank 31st and 28th respectively, thanks, in large, part to their atrocious defense. We’re getting big line value with the Eagles as yards per play differential says they should be 3 point road favorites and rate of sustaining drives differential says they should be 1.5 point road favorites. This late in the season, it’s rare to get this kind of line value.
Two more things work in Philadelphia’s favor. Dogs are 86-49 ATS before being favorites since 2011, including 16-3 ATS off a loss as favorites. When we go back to 2008 to get a larger sample size, that trend is 50-21 ATS since. Meanwhile, Andy Reid is 15-7 ATS on Monday Night Football, for what that’s worth. Their season is on the line and this is the exact type of game Andy Reid wins, with everyone doubting them. It’s a significant play on the road team.
Public lean: New Orleans (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Philadelphia covers)
Sharps lean: PHI 13 NO 0
Final update: Another heavy sharps lean lining up with my pick. I’m feeling really good about this week. The last time I agreed with the sharps this much was week 4, my 2nd best week ever (+25 units). I’m adding an extra unit here. I love getting a 50-21 ATS trend and getting Andy Reid in a must win game as dogs.
Philadelphia Eagles 31 New Orleans Saints 27 Upset Pick +145
Pick against spread: Philadelphia +3 (-110) 4 units
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