New England Patriots (7-3) at New York Jets (4-6)

The Patriots suffered a serious injury last week, losing Rob Gronkowski for at least 4 weeks with a broken arm. Gronkowski is an incredible football player and one of the top offensive players in the NFL and his absence obviously hurts. However, no one does the “next man up” thing offensively better than the Patriots. Remember when Aaron Hernandez went down and people thought it was a big deal?

Tom Brady’s favorite receiver has always been the open one. They’ll be fine without Gronkowski for a few weeks. They still have Wes Welker, Aaron Hernandez (returning from injury this week), Brandon Lloyd, and Julian Edelman. That’s probably a better receiving corps than they had when they won their 3 Super Bowls. Tom Brady has never needed great receivers and no team makes week to week adjustments for injuries better than the Patriots.

They’re averaging 35.8 points per game this season, the 2^nd most in NFL history (16 games seasons), right behind…yep, the 2007 Patriots. They’ve lost 3 games by a combined 4 points and won 7 games by a combined 137, leading the league with a +133 points differential. In a way, they’re playing as well as they did in 2007, without having the pressure of being undefeated thanks to some close losses. Defensively, Aqib Talib has stabilized things in the secondary, even if only a little. Coming off a 59 point performance against the Colts, I would not want to bet against them, especially since some people are doubting them in the wake of Gronkowski’s recent injury. They thrive off that kind of thing.

Despite their offensive outburst last week, this line hasn’t moved. It was at -7 last week and it’s at -7 again this week, probably because of the Gronkowski injury. I know the Jets won too, but before that they were regarded as one of the worst teams in the NFL. One win over a 3-6 Rams team doesn’t change that. Plus, teams typically fare well the week after scoring a ton of points as teams are 23-14 ATS as favorites since 1989 after scoring 49 or more points. It’s worth noting this line opened at -5.5, but a ton of action on the favorite drove it up to -7. I hate picking a heavily backed favorite given that the odds makers have been struggling of late and seem due for a big week, but at least the line movement is going in the right direction.

I mentioned I wouldn’t want to bet against the Patriots right now. Well, it’s generally not a good idea to bet on them in a regular season game in week 10 or later. In the last 3 years, they have not dropped a single regular season game in week 10 or later, going 18-0, winning by an average of 19.3 points per game and going 12-6 ATS. On average, they cover the spread by 12 points per game over that time period (including ATS losses). Those games have also gone over the total a ridiculous 16 out of 18 times, so I like the over here as well, even on Thursday Night.

Also, while the Patriots tend to struggle at home as favorites of more than a touchdown (6-11 ATS in the last 3 seasons), they are a covering machine in all other situations going 21-8 ATS. They were big home favorites in their last 2 games (1-1 ATS), but now they are on the road. It might seem weird to say that the Patriots are more likely to cover as big road favorites than big home favorites, but it’s true. Besides, look at their road wins this year. They beat Tennessee 34-13, Buffalo 52-28, and St. Louis 45-7 (on a neutral surface).

They’ll also have plenty of motivation in this one as the Jets almost beat them last time. Belichick hasn’t forgotten. The Patriots are 9-4 ATS trying to avenge an overtime game in the Belichick era, including 2-0 ATS in same season. They’re also 6-2 ATS avenging a same season win by less than a touchdown. They won’t let themselves be caught off guard by the Jets twice in the same season. All signs point to this being another blowout win for a Patriots team that already has a whopping 4 wins by 21 or more this season. I hate betting on huge public leans and betting against line value, but it’s a small play on the Patriots.

New England Patriots 34 New York Jets 17

Pick against spread: New England -7 (-110) 2 units

Total: Over 48 (-110) 1 unit

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