Washington Redskins (4-6) at Dallas Cowboys (5-5)

People really seem to have soured on the Cowboys after their near loss to the Browns last week. This line was at Dallas -6 last week and now it’s at -3 and the public is still pounding the underdog. The fact that the public is pounding the underdog is very important because the public has lost a lot of money over the past 3 weeks with 2 losing weeks, including a massive losing week in week 9. They’ll eventually make that money back, so I wouldn’t want to bet a public dog this week. Public dogs covering especially hurt the odds makers because they need favorites and dogs to cover evenly, but also to make money. The public tends to prefer favorites, but when they prefer a dog, it’s normally a risky bet, especially given what’s happened in the last few weeks. The odds makers always win in the long run.

I also think the line movement is a huge overreaction. Yes, the Cowboys barely beat the Browns, but so has everyone who has played them. Cincinnati beat them by just a touchdown in Cincinnati and then lost to them in the rematch in Cleveland. The Colts only beat them by 4 in Indianapolis and could have easily lost if Josh Gordon didn’t drop an easy touchdown. The Giants trailed 14-0 to them early and beat them by 14 in a game that was a lot closer than the finally score.

They went down to the final play with the Ravens in Baltimore and, then in the rematch in Cleveland, they actually scored more frequently than the Ravens, who were coming off a bye. The problem was their 5 scores were all field goals and the Ravens scored 3 touchdowns and a field goal. Still, that game was not as close as the final score. They’re not getting run out of the stadium by anyone, so I don’t understand why this line moved 3 points just because the Cowboys played them close. I know the Redskins also blew out the Eagles in the last week, but is that really that impressive? The Eagles suck. The Cowboys blew them out too and in Philadelphia. I love betting against overreactions.

Besides the fact that the Browns always play teams close, the Cowboys’ near loss last week wasn’t that surprising. The Cowboys struggle as home favorites expect for on Thanksgiving (more on that later) and teams tend to struggle as favorites before being divisional favorites on Thursday Night. It’s very, very possible they just overlooked the Browns because they had this game 4 days later. They won’t overlook the Redskins.

As you can expect, we’re getting some line value with the Cowboys. It’s not a ton, but using the rate of sustaining drives differential method, we get a real line of Dallas -4 and using the yards per play differential method, we get a real line of Dallas -3. The Cowboys are the better team, but this line says they’re even (3 points for home field advantage).

Speaking of home field advantage, Tony Romo has never lost a November home game, including 5 Thanksgiving home games. He’s only once failed to cover at home on Thanksgiving (4-1 ATS). The Cowboys tend to struggle as home favorites in general (9-16 ATS since 2009, including last week), but in November and on Thanksgiving in general, they typically do really well. I also don’t really trust Robert Griffin on the road on a short week. As talented as he is, it’s really tough for young teams to travel on a short week. I like the Cowboys for a significant play. I also like the under because the under is 72-53 on Thursdays since 1989.

Dallas Cowboys 27 Washington Redskins 20

Pick against spread: Dallas -3 (-110) 3 units

Total: Under 48 (-110) 1 unit

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