Denver Broncos (9-3) at Oakland Raiders (3-9)

The Raiders actually gave a little bit of effort last week. They still lost at home to the previously 3-8 Browns in a game they trailed throughout, but that was sadly a big step up from where they were the week before. In their 3 games prior, they lost all 3 by 21 or more, which is actually incredibly rare. That’s only the 13^th time that’s happened since 1989, which is why I love betting teams off back-to-back losses of 21 or more (36-17 ATS since 2002).

This week, the Raiders are actually in a really good spot. For one, divisional favorites of more than a touchdown are just 2-10 ATS this season, which I think speaks to the high level of parity in the NFL this season. The Broncos struggled and failed to cover the spread in a win in Kansas City two weeks ago in a very similar type game.

Meanwhile, teams are 102-57 ATS as dogs before being favorites in the last 2 seasons and the Raiders host the Chiefs next week, a game they are expected to be favorites in. Going off that, divisional home dogs are 20-10 ATS before being divisional home favorites since 1989. The Raiders are also in their 2^nd straight game as home dogs off a loss, a situation teams are 60-41 ATS in since 2002.

Speaking of that loss last week, as I mentioned, the Raiders were actually competitive. Teams that are on long losing streaks that almost broke through the week before actually cover at a high rate. Teams that lose 5+ straight are 60-35 ATS since 2002 off a loss by 8 or fewer. All the trends say they should cover, but of course, all the trends said they would cover against Baltimore, New Orleans, and Cincinnati too and they got blown out.

This week, we’re actually getting line value with the Broncos. Using the net points per drive differential method of computing real line, this line should be Denver -13.5. The Broncos rank 5^th in net points per drive at 0.62 the Raiders rank 31^st in net points per drive at -0.90. If we take the difference between those two, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per game), and add 3 points in the Raiders’ direction for home field advantage, we get around Denver -13.5. That line checks out with DVOA (which is net points per drive based, but takes other things into account like schedule). The Broncos rank 2^nd in both DVOA and weighted DVOA, while the Raiders rank 31^st and 32^nd respectively in those two metrics.

However, unlike the Baltimore game, the New Orleans game, and the Cincinnati game, in which the Raiders showed no effort, this is a divisional matchup. In fact, it’s a home primetime game against not only their biggest rival, but by far the best team in the division. This is their Super Bowl. Just like the Eagles last week, they should give their best effort of the season and cover a large spread against a superior team.

Actually, where the Raiders are right now is very similar to where the Eagles were last week. The Eagles were atrocious over a 4 game stretch, getting outscored 125-64, and then were competitive as home dogs against a crappy team. The Raiders were also atrocious over a 4 game stretch, getting outscored 167-77, and then were competitive as home dogs against a crappy team. Now, like the Eagles were last week, the Raiders are double digit divisional dogs in a game with all the trends on their side in a game that means much more for them than their opponent. The Broncos just want a win, while the Raiders are playing for pride.

I also like that the public likes the Broncos. The odds makers always make money in the long run, so it makes sense to fade the public whenever it seems appropriate. It’s never really a bad thing to be on the same side as the odds makers. They know what they’re doing. However, like the Eagles last week, I can’t make a big play on the Raiders. They should be the right side though.

Public lean: Denver (70% range)

Denver Broncos 27 Oakland Raiders 20

Pick against spr­ead: Oakland +10.5 (-110) 2 units

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