Kansas City Chiefs (2-11) at Oakland Raiders (3-10)

I picked the Chiefs as 6.5 point dogs last week in Cleveland because they were in such a good spot, but I made sure not to make it a huge play because I wasn’t sure how they’d respond once they had a week for the Jovan Belcher situation to settle in. In hindsight, I probably should have avoided the game entirely like I did the week before. However, 2 weeks after the incident, I don’t think that situation is relevant to purely picking games. Obviously, it’s still a relevant situation, but I don’t think it will affect them in any possible significant negative or positive ways on the field.

That’s good because I really like the Chiefs again this week. Their loss last week in Cleveland actually opened up a good situation for them this week. Road dogs are 86-50 ATS off a road loss since 2008. The Raiders, on the other hand, are in a bad situation. Teams are 59-85 ATS in what I call the sandwich situation since 2008, favorites off a loss as dogs before being dogs, including 44-67 ATS as favorites of a touchdown or less. For good teams, this game is a breather. For bad teams, well, they shouldn’t be favored. Bad teams have issues covering as favorites, which shouldn’t be too surprising.

Further proving that, the Raiders, who haven’t had a winning season since the 2002 season, are 9-28 ATS as favorites since the start of the 2003 season, their first in a long line of non-winning seasons. Meanwhile, teams are 16-26 ATS as favorites off 4 straight losses as dogs since 1989. The real line for this game, using the net points per drive method, is Oakland -3, which is what this line is (and it holds up to DVOA), but the fact remains: bad teams cannot be trusted to consistently cover.

One more trend works in Kansas City’s favor. Teams are 52-25 ATS as divisional road dogs trying to avenge a same season loss as home favorites. The Chiefs lost as home favorites to the Raiders a few weeks ago, but teams rarely sweep the season series in a divisional matchup when the talent level is equal and I think it is between these two teams. The Chiefs loss as home favorites to the Raiders a few weeks ago also points back to what I was just talking about: that bad teams cannot be counted on to consistently cover as favorites.

I’ve been hesitant to bet heavily on the Chiefs in the past when all the trends were on their side because they’re such a mistake prone team. However, the Raiders are equally mistake prone. They really have no business being favored. The Chiefs can make a bunch of mistakes and still win this game because the Raiders probably will do the same thing too. I also like that the Raiders are a heavy public lean. The public always loses money in the long run. It’s a significant play on the Chiefs.

Public lean: Oakland (70% range)

Kansas City Chiefs 20 Oakland Raiders 16 Upset Pick +145

Pick against spread: Kansas City +3 (-110) 4 units

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