Jacksonville Jaguars (2-11) at Miami Dolphins (5-8)

I’ve mentioned the six and six trend here several times. Teams are 23-64 ATS since 2002 as favorites of 6 or more if they finish with 6 wins or fewer. The Dolphins might be a candidate for that here as 7.5 point favorites over the Jaguars. They are currently 5-8 and need to go 2-1 in their final 3 games to finish 7-9 or better. They’re favored in 2 of their final 3 games, but that doesn’t mean they’ll win both of them and I highly doubt they win in New England week 17. If they slip up once in their next 2 games, maybe against an improved Buffalo squad next week in Miami, they’d be an obvious fit for the six and six trend.

Going off of that, it’s worth mentioning that teams who have 5 wins or fewer are 6-12 ATS as favorites of a touchdown or more in week 15 or later, including 2-7 ATS as favorites of 7.5 or more, as the Dolphins are here. It doesn’t really seem like the Dolphins should be favored by this much. We are actually getting some line value with the Dolphins as the real line for this game is -9. The Dolphins rank 21^st in net points per drive at -0.18, while the Jaguars rank 30^th at -0.79. If you take the difference and multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per game per team), you get Miami -9 and that holds up to DVOA, as Miami ranks 20^th in regular and 23^rd in weighted, while the Jaguars rank 31^st in both.

However, the Jaguars are playing better football under Chad Henne. He’s certainly inconsistent, but even on his bad days, he’s not much worse, if any worse, than Blaine Gabbert was and on his good days he’s almost beaten the Texans in Houston and won as home dogs against the Titans. That’s certainly something that could play a factor here.

It’s also worth noting that the Dolphins have been a much better road team than home team over the past 5 years, going 12-25 ATS at home and 25-14 ATS on the road. It’s unclear how much that means since they’re 2-3 ATS at home this year and 3-4 ATS on the road, but it’s still worth noting. They’ve also failed to cover their last 11 instance as home dogs of more than 3, including twice this year.

The Jaguars, meanwhile, are 5-1 ATS on the road and before a game in Buffalo a few weeks ago, their biggest road loss was by 9 in Green Bay. If they lose by 7 or less here, they cover. There’s too much uncertainty here for me to make this a huge play, but the Jaguars should be the right side in this one. If Henne weren’t so inconsistent, it’d be 4 or 5 units, but I’m still taking the Jaguars for 3.

Public lean: Miami (60% range)

Miami Dolphins 17 Jacksonville Jaguars 13

Pick against spread: Jacksonville +7.5 (-110) 3 units

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