Indianapolis Colts (9-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (2-12)
The Colts lost to the Texans last week and still only have one impressive win on their schedule and by impressive win I mean a win over a playoff team or a blowout of a bad team. They beat the Packers in that first ChuckStrong game and that’s it. They got blown out in Chicago, New York, New England and last week, to a lesser extent, in Houston. Meanwhile, they have just 1 win by more than a touchdown, winning by 17 in Jacksonville. They’ve played close games with the likes of Tennessee (twice), Buffalo, Detroit, Miami, and Cleveland.
As a result, they rank much worse in net points per drive than their record would suggest and even worse in DVOA and weighted DVOA, which takes the Colts’ cupcake schedule into account. They rank 24th in net points per game at -0.32. In DVOA, they are 28th and 26th in weighted DVOA. The Chiefs rank dead last in everything and have a net points per drive of -0.97, but we’re still getting line value with them. If you take the difference between their net points per drive and the Colts’, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per game), and add 2.5 to the Chiefs’ side for home field, you get that this line should be Indianapolis -4.5, before even taking into account that the Colts are even worse in DVOA than net points per drive.
This makes sense. This line is -7 and as bad as the Chiefs are, the Colts have only beaten one team by more than a touchdown on that was on Thursday Night, when weird things tend to happen. Recently, the spread has really caught up to the Colts. After starting out 6-3 ATS, they are just 2-3 ATS in their last 5 games, including a big loss in New England and near losses to the Lions and the Titans. The Colts’ two only covers in that stretch were that comeback win against the Lions and a home game against the Bills, which they won by 7 on a return touchdown.
Besides, this is an obvious sandwich situation for the Colts. They just lost to the Texans and have to play them again next week. They’re also basically locked into the 5 seed in the AFC. Why would they get up for the crappy Chiefs? Teams are 59-85 ATS since 2008 as favorites after losing as dogs before being dogs again. They’ll see this as an easy breather game. Teams are 23-39 ATS in that spot in a non-divisional game in between two divisional games. Going off that, teams are 27-47 ATS as road favorites of 3 or more before being home dogs of 3 or more since 1989, including 5-13 ATS in a non-divisional game before being a divisional game.
Ugh, when I was watching the Chiefs not manage a single first down in the first half against the league’s worst defense last week, I decided not to pick them for a significant play to cover another game the rest of the way. Brady Quinn is just too terrible, especially missing Dwayne Bowe, his only good receiver. However, when this line moved from +6 to +7, I talked myself into taking them for a significant play.
This is just not a good spot at all for an overrated Colts team and the public is still all over them (I love fading heavy public leans). And besides, whenever I make teams unbettable and refuse to pick them for a significant play even in a great situation, they seem to cover the following week. Anyone can cover on any given Sunday in the NFL (that’s the whole point of the spread). Brady Quinn is 2-0 ATS in his last two home games and the Chiefs are 3-3 ATS in their last 6 games. The Colts, however, are my survivor pick this week.
Public lean: Indianapolis (90% range)
Sharps lean: IND 13 KC 5
Final thoughts: Worth noting this is at +6.5 in LV Hilton. I wouldn’t make it a significant play at +6.5, but getting the full touchdown is too good to pass on. We also have reverse line movement as this has moved from +7 to +6, which is good to see because it means sharps in general are on the Chiefs, but I’m not budging from 3 units at +7. I need the full touchdown and I don’t want to put anything more on the Chiefs. This is the one 3+ unit pick I’m nervous about.
Indianapolis Colts 17 Kansas City Chiefs 13 Survivor Pick (HOU, NE, NO, BAL, SF, ATL, CHI, GB, SD, PIT, DAL, DEN, DET, SEA, STL)
Pick against spread: Kansas City +7 (-110) 3 units
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