Month: December 2012

2012 Pro Bowl Picks

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AFC Quarterbacks

Tom Brady (NE), Peyton Manning (DEN), Ben Roethlisberger (PIT)

Brady and Manning are obvious choices and will probably finish 1-2 in MVP voting, in some order. Roethlisberger beats out Schaub for the underwhelming 3rd spot, even though he missed 3 games. Roethlisberger carried a team that has had so many injuries this year in a way that Schaub never has this year.

Other options: Matt Schaub

NFC Quarterbacks

Robert Griffin (WAS), Aaron Rodgers (GB), Matt Ryan (ATL)

Griffin would probably be my 3rd choice for MVP. He is tied for the NFL lead in quarterback rating and that doesn’t even take into account what he does on the ground. He’s taken a team that didn’t have a ton of talent to begin with that has lost a lot of key players to injury and put them on the brink of a playoff spot. Rodgers is a no brainer. Ryan was an early MVP candidate, who has gone back to his normal levels of production over the past few weeks, but he still gets the nod over Drew Brees.

Other options: Eli Manning, Russell Wilson, Drew Brees

AFC Running Backs

CJ Spiller (BUF), Ray Rice (BAL), Stevan Ridley (NE)

Spiller is having a year similar to Jamaal Charles’ in 2010. He’s averaging a ridiculous 6.6 YPC, which would be an NFL record if he had enough carries to qualify, but he isn’t even his team’s lead back. Still, 6.6 YPC and 1298 yards from scrimmage on a mere 178 touches in nothing to sneeze at. Rice is having another great all-purpose year and got an offensive coordinator fired for not using him more. Stevan Ridley beats out Chris Johnson, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, and Jamaal Charles.

Other options: Jamaal Charles

NFC Running Backs

Adrian Peterson (MIN), Marshawn Lynch (SEA), Doug Martin (TB)

No surprises here. Peterson, Lynch, and Martin are 1-2-4 in rushing yards this season. Martin beats out Morris, who is 3rd, because Morris’ rushing yards are more the product of the Redskins’ read option offense and Robert Griffin.

Other options: Alfred Morris, Frank Gore, Ahmad Bradshaw

AFC Wide Receivers

Reggie Wayne (IND), Andre Johnson (HOU), AJ Green (CIN), Demaryius Thomas (DEN)

Again, no surprises here. These are the top-4 in receiving yards in the AFC.

Other options: Wes Welker

NFC Wide Receivers

Calvin Johnson (DET), Vincent Jackson (TB), Brandon Marshall (CHI), Roddy White (ATL)

Once again, no surprises here. These are the top-4 in receiving yards in the NFC.

Other options: Percy Harvin

AFC Tight Ends

Rob Gronkowski (NE), Heath Miller (PIT)

Gronkowski leads all AFC tight ends in receiving yards despite missing 3 games with injury and that doesn’t even take into account that he’s probably the best blocking tight end in the NFL. Heath Miller is an equally well rounded player.

Other options: Marcedes Lewis

NFC Tight Ends

Jason Witten (DAL), Martellus Bennett (NYG)

Witten leads all NFL tight ends in receiving yards. Bennett beats out Tony Gonzalez for his all around play. Gonzalez has been a terrible run blocker this year.

Other options: Tony Gonzalez, Vernon Davis

AFC Fullback

Vonta Leach (BAL)

Leach gets the nod over Marcel Reece. Reece did a great job moving to running back for a stretch in place of an injured Darren McFadden, but in terms of true, pure fullbacks, there’s still no one better in the NFL than Leach.

Other options: Marcel Reece

NFC Fullback

Bruce Miller (SF)

ProFootballFocus’ top rated NFC fullback, Bruce Miller is a huge part of the reason why the 49ers rank 2nd in the NFL in rushing yards.

Other options: Henry Hynoski

AFC Offensive Tackles

Duane Brown (HOU), Ryan Clady (DEN), Joe Thomas (CLE)

Duane Brown is ProFootballFocus’ top rated offensive tackle and has only allowed 2 sacks this season, which is actually a lot for him. He didn’t allow a single sack all last year. Clady has had a major bounce back year for the Broncos this year, after a down year last year, though I suppose a switch from Tim Tebow to Peyton Manning under center obviously helps. Thomas gets the nod over Andre Brown because Thomas plays on the more important blindside.

Other options: Andre Smith, D’Brickashaw Ferguson

NFC Offensive Tackles

Joe Staley (SF), Trent Williams (WAS), William Beatty (NYG)

Staley has actually allowed 7 sacks this year, but that’s more his quarterbacks’ fault. He’s allowed just 1 hit and 12 hurries and is ProFootballFocus’ top rated run blocking offensive tackle by a wide margin on one of the league’s best run offenses. Williams and Beatty wouldn’t deserve this if they were in the AFC, a much stronger offensive tackle conference, but they are ProFootballFocus’ 2nd and 4th rated offensive tackles from the NFC, allowing 3 and 2 sacks respectively. Beatty beats out Gosder Cherilus because, like Andre Smith, he’s a right tackle.

Other options: Gosder Cherilus, Russell Okung

AFC Guards

Marshal Yanda (BAL), Kevin Zeitler (CIN), Andy Levitre (BUF)

Yanda hasn’t surrendered a sack all season and is ProFootballFocus’ 2nd ranked guard, excelling in both pass protection and run blocking. Rookie Zeitler is a huge part of the reason why the pedestrian BenJarvus Green-Ellis has appeared to be a Pro-Bowl caliber running back this year. Andy Levitre grades out as the NFL’s top rated pass blocking interior lineman on ProFootballFocus, allowing 2 sacks, 3 hits, and 6 hurries.

Other options: Clint Boling

NFC Guards

Evan Mathis (PHI), Jahri Evans (NO), Josh Sitton (GB)

The Eagles’ offensive line has been terrible, but don’t blame Mathis, who has allowed just 1 sack and is ProFootballFocus’ top rated guard for the 2nd straight year by a wide margin. Evans is a perennial Pro Bowler and deserves it again this year. Sitton is on his way to becoming a perennial guy like Evans.

Other options: Mike Iupati, Alex Boone

AFC Centers

Mike Pouncey (MIA), Chris Myers (HOU)

The lesser known of the two Pouncey twins, Mike is playing on a level that his brother Maurkice has never played on. He’s surrendered just 3 total pressures all year and is a strong run blocker. Myers was ProFootballFocus’ top rated center in 2011 and is their 5th rated center this year, 2nd rated from the AFC.

Other options: Nick Mangold, Ryan Wendell

NFC Centers

John Sullivan (MIN), Brian La Puente (NO)

La Puente went from marginal to Pro Bowl caliber this year. Sullivan did that last year and hasn’t looked back.

Other options: Will Montgomery

AFC Defensive Ends

JJ Watt (HOU), Cameron Wake (MIA), Derrick Morgan (TEN)

Ugh.  Why did the Pro Bowl ballot move Muhammad Wilkerson from end to tackle. That left us without a clear 3rd end from the AFC. Watt and Wake are no brainers, ranking 1st on ProFootballFocus in 3-4 and 4-3 end respectively. Morgan is a surprise pick because he only has 5 sacks, but he’s ProFootballFocus’ 2nd ranked defensive end from the AFC as he ranks 4th in the NFL in pass rush efficiency.

Other options: Corey Liuget, Mario Williams

NFC Defensive Ends

Jason Pierre Paul (NYG), Brandon Graham (PHI), Calais Campbell (ARZ)

JPP and Campbell are obvious selections. Graham is a surprise like Morgan, but he leads the league in pass rush efficiency by a wide margin among players with 175 or more pass rush snaps and he has been a monster since becoming a starter 3 weeks ago with 5 sacks, 2 quarterback hits, and 11 quarterback hurries in 3 games. On the year, he has 7 sacks, 6 hits, and 27 hurries on 177 pass rush snaps, good for a pass rush efficiency of 19.0. Wake is closest at 13.7. Graham actually is ProFootballFocus’ top rated NFC 4-3 end and ranks 2nd behind only Cameron Wake in the NFL at his position.

Other options: John Abraham, Charles Johnson, Chris Clemons

AFC Defensive Tackles

Geno Atkins (CIN), Muhammad Wilkerson (NYJ), Kyle Williams (BUF)

Geno Atkins is the league’s best defensive tackle with 12 sacks, 13 hits, and 44 hurries, all while grading out as ProFootballFocus’ top rated defensive tackle against the run. Among defensive players, only JJ Watt and Von Miller have better overall ratings. Wilkerson isn’t the pass rusher Atkins is, but the 3-4 end is ProFootballFocus’ top rated run defensive lineman not named Watt and has 4 sacks, 7 hits, and 18 hurries to boot. Williams was a Pro Bowl caliber player in 2010 and now back from injury he is again, with 5 sacks, 10 hits, and 25 hurries, while playing the run well as well. Only Atkins has a higher rating among defensive tackles.

Other options: Jurrell Casey

NFC Defensive Tackles

Gerald McCoy (TB), Justin Smith (SF), Nick Fairley (DET)

Gerald McCoy has finally showed what he can do when healthy, as ProFootballFocus’ 3rd rated defensive tackle, with 5 sacks, 8 hits, and 31 hurries while leading the NFL’s best run defense. Smith is technically a 3-4 end, but is on the ballot as a tackle. He’s not having the pass rushing year he had in 2011, but only Watt and Wilkerson grade out as better run players. Fairley is a write in, but only Atkins has a better pass rush efficiency rating. He was nuts as a rotational player early in the year and has been equally nuts in 5 starts with 4 sacks, 4 hits, and 15 hurries. I know you can’t write in players, but he deserves it. On the actual ballot, I voted his teammate Ndamukong Suh, who has played almost equally well.

Other options: Ndamukong Suh, Henry Melton, Jason Hatcher

AFC Outside Linebackers

Von Miller (DEN), Justin Houston (KC), Nick Barnett (MIA)

Along Watt has a higher rating among defensive players on ProFootballFocus than Miller, who is a defensive end just in sub packages and has 16 sacks, 13 hits, and 45 hurries, which is good for a pass rush efficiency surpassed only by Brandon Graham. He’s also ProFootballFocus’ highest rated run stopping linebacker and even does well in coverage when asked. Houston is ProFootballFocus’ highest rated AFC 3-4 outside linebacker with 10 sacks, 6 hits, and 23 hurries. Nick Barnett is ProFootballFocus’ 3rd rated 4-3 outside linebacker in the NFL and gets the nod because Jerod Mayo is listed as a middle linebacker for some reason.

Other options: Phillip Wheeler, Paul Kruger

NFC Outside Linebackers

Anthony Spencer (DAL), Aldon Smith (SF), Ahmad Brooks (SF)

Spencer is not a household name, but he’s perennially one of the best run stopping 3-4 outside linebackers in the league and this year he is the best and has also chipped in with a career high 9 sacks, to go with 1 hit and 20 hurries. Only Von Miller is a higher rated run stopping linebacker and he’s ProFootballFocus’ highest rated 3-4 outside linebacker. Smith is overrated based purely on sack numbers because he doesn’t play the run well or cover well and his 10 hits and 29 hurries allow him to barely be the league’s leader in pass rush efficiency over Justin Houston, but 20 sacks is nothing to sneeze at. He could set the single season record for sacks. Teammate Ahmad Brooks has also played very well with 6 sacks, 8 hits, and 27 hurries, while grading out 3rd at his position against the run. He gets the nod over Clay Matthews, once a Pro Bowl lock before getting hurt, and DeMarcus Ware, a more one dimensional player who leads the position with 8 penalties.

Other options: Clay Matthews, DeMarcus Ware

AFC Middle Linebackers

Derrick Johnson (KC), Jerod Mayo (NE)

Derrick Johnson is ProFootballFocus top rated middle linebacker not named Patrick Willis. Jerod Mayo is an outside linebacker listed here for whatever reason, but he deserves the nod either way, beating out teammate Brandon Spikes, a true middle linebacker, for this nod.

Other options: Brandon Spikes

NFC Middle Linebackers

Patrick Willis (SF), Bobby Wagner (SEA)

Willis is the obvious choice. 2nd round rookie Wagner ranks 3rd on ProFootballFocus out of middle linebackers and beats out a loaded NFC middle linebacker group including Daryl Washington, NaVorro Bowman, DeMeco Ryans, and even the injured Sean Lee.

Other options: Daryl Washington, NaVorro Bowman

AFC Cornerbacks

Antonio Cromartie (NYJ), Alterraun Verner (TEN), Sheldon Brown (CLE)

The AFC is clearly the weaker cornerback conference. Cromartie has allowed 4 touchdowns, committed 6 penalties, and struggles against the run, but his 43.8% completion percentage allowed is the league’s best and he has 3 picks and 11 deflections. Verner and Brown are weird choices, but Verner is the only AFC cornerback who hasn’t surrendered a touchdown this year and he’s one of the league’s best run stopping cornerbacks. Brown is submitting an excellent season at age 33 on a very underrated Cleveland defense, allowing 40 catches for 462 yards and a touchdown on 76 attempts, intercepting 3, deflecting 9, committing 7 penalties, and playing well against the run.

Other options: Brandon Flowers, Chris Harris, Champ Bailey

NFC Cornerbacks

Casey Hayward (GB), Charles Tillman (CHI), Antoine Winfield (MIN)

The much tougher cornerback conference, the NFC possesses ProFootballFocus’ top 4 rated cornerbacks, including 3 from the NFC North. Hayward is a mere 2nd round rookie, but he’s playing insane, allowing 43.9% completion, no touchdowns, while getting his hands on 15 balls, intercepting 5 of them. Opposing quarterbacks have a 30.1 QB rating when throwing on him and he’s missed just one tackle all year and has yet to be penalized. He’s not on the Pro Bowl ballot for some reason, so I voted for Richard Sherman instead, even though he’ll probably end up being suspended and ineligible. Tillman and Winfield are more obvious choices as they rank tied for 3rd and 2nd respectively on ProFootballFocus among cornerbacks.

Other options: Richard Sherman, Tim Jennings

AFC Free Safety

Eric Weddle (SD)

Once again, Weddle is ProFootballFocus’ top rated safety, narrowly beating out Jairus Byrd and the emerging Reshad Jones.

Other options: Jairus Byrd, Reshad Jones

NFC Free Safety

Kerry Rhodes (ARZ)

After Weedle, Jones, and Byrd, the resurgent Kerry Rhodes is ProFootballFocus’ 4th rated safety and top rated NFC safety.

Other options: Ronde Barber

AFC Strong Safety

TJ Ward (CLE)

I don’t know why I can’t just pick two free safeties, but TJ Ward is ProFootballFocus top rated strong safety and 5th rated safety overall.

Other options: George Wilson

NFC Strong Safety

Quintin Mikell (STL)

The AFC is the stronger safety conference and free safety is the stronger safety position, but Quintin Mikell has emerged over the past few weeks to become ProFootballFocus’ 6th rated safety and a worthy Pro-Bowler nonetheless.

Other options: William Moore

Kickers

AFC: Justin Tucker (BAL), NFC: Blair Walsh (MIN)

These two rookies have been the league’s best.

Punters

AFC: Brandon Fields (MIA), NFC: Thomas Morestead (NO)

Fields and Morestead are the only two punters in the NFL to have an average of 50+ yards per punt.

Kick returners

AFC: Leodis McKelvin (BUF), NFC: David Wilson (NYG)

McKelvin is averaging a league leading 18.0 yards per punt return and also averages 28.3 yards per kickoff return, why he’s ProFootballFocus’ top rated return man. Wilson is 2nd and tops in the NFC, averaging 27.5 yards per kickoff.

Special teamers

AFC: Darrell Stuckey (SD), NFC: Colt Anderson (PHI)

Do you really want me to talk about special teamers?

By team:

San Francisco 6

New England 4

NY Giants 4

Denver 4

Buffalo 4

Houston 4

Baltimore 4

Minnesota 4

Miami 4

Green Bay 3

Cleveland 3

Philadelphia 3

New Orleans 3

Tampa Bay 3

Cincinnati 3

Atlanta 2

Chicago 2

Washington 2

Arizona 2

Seattle 2

Detroit 2

Dallas 2

NY Jets 2

Pittsburgh 2

Tennessee 2

Kansas City 2

San Diego 2

St. Louis 1

Indianapolis 1

Carolina 0

Jacksonville 0

Oakland 0

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Washington Redskins at Cleveland Browns: Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 15 NFL Picks, Browns, Commanders

Washington Redskins (7-6) at Cleveland Browns (5-8)

Robert Griffin is expected to be a true game time decision for this one and we won’t know for sure about his status until tomorrow morning. Lines are slowly starting to trickle in spite of this and if you had to ask me, I’d said it’s more likely than not that Robert Griffin plays. Normally, when a quarterback is a game time decision, he plays.

It’s only when a quarterback is ruled out in the week prior that he doesn’t play and this is such a huge game for the Redskins if they want to make the playoffs, I can’t see him sitting out. The fact that lines are already starting to trickle in is a good sign, especially since Washington is favored by 1 (they were favored by 2.5 a week ago). That suggests that the odds makers are fairly sure Griffin will play.

I’m going to make this pick as if I’m fairly sure Griffin will play, for that reason. We are getting some line value with the Browns, who are better than their 5-8 record would suggest. They are just -13 in points differential and they rank 16th in net points per drive at -0.03. The Redskins, meanwhile, rank 15th in net points per drive at -0.02. These teams are basically equal and if you take the difference, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per team per game), and add 2.5 points for home field, you get that Cleveland should be favored by those 2.5 points.

However, that doesn’t hold up to DVOA. Washington ranks 10th in DVOA, which takes things into account things like strength of schedule, and 11th in weighted DVOA. Cleveland, meanwhile, ranks 25th in regular and 20th in weighted DVOA. Cleveland is also in a bad spot as home dogs off a win as home favorites, a situation teams are 52-72 ATS in since 1989, the only trend that is relevant in this one.

Furthermore, I just don’t want to bet against Griffin right now and I don’t think the Browns are ready to win straight up against a team like the Redskins yet. They’ve hung with some good teams, but they need to win straight up to cover here. It’s only a small play because of the uncertainty of Griffin and it would rank near the bottom in any confidence pools, but the Redskins are the pick.

Public lean: ?

Final update: Griffin was surprisingly ruled out today and Kirk Cousins will start tomorrow. This line is now Cleveland -2. I like betting on good teams starting backup quarterbacks as they tend to give 110% to compensate and opponents tend to overlook them. Remember the Steelers beating the Ravens with Charlie Batch?

The Browns also have bigger things to worry about as they have trips to Denver and Pittsburgh next on the agenda. Favorites are 35-72 ATS since 2008 before being touchdown dogs and 7-20 ATS before being touchdown dogs in two straight. Teams are also 105-62 ATS as dogs before being favorites in the last 2 seasons and the Redskins go to Philadelphia next week, when they should have Griffin back. When the opponent will next be dogs, teams are 116-59 ATS in that spot since 2008.

It’d be a bigger play, but I feel like the 4.5 point line movement from last week (the Redskins were -2.5) is not enough to compensate for Griffin’s loss, especially considering the Browns looked pretty impressive last week, blowing out the Chiefs. Griffin might be the league’s most valuable player outside of Brady and Manning this year and the Redskins supporting cast isn’t very good. It’d be a big play at +4 or more, but not at +2. The Redskins should be the right side though.

Final update II: Now at +4, I like the Redskins a lot more.

Washington Redskins 20 Cleveland Browns 17 Upset Pick +180

Pick against spread: Washington +4 (-110) 3 units

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints: Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 15 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Saints

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-7) at New Orleans Saints (5-8)

The Buccaneers lost last week as big home favorites against the Eagles, essentially eliminating themselves from playoff contention, but they are still better than their record. They haven’t lost a single game by more than 8 points, but 4 of their 6 wins have come by double digits. As a result, they are 11th in net points per drive at 0.25. They are also 14th in DVOA and 15th in weighted DVOA.

The Saints, meanwhile, rank 19th in net points per drive at -0.13. If you take the difference, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per game per team), and add 2.5 points to New Orleans’ side for home field, you get that the Buccaneers should be 1.5 point favorites here. That holds up to DVOA, in which the Saints rank 22nd, as well as 21st in weighted.

The Buccaneers may have lost last week, but they were in a really bad spot. They were in a sandwich game in between an emotional loss to the Broncos and this big divisional matchup. However, this week, the Saints are the one in that spot. Last week, they lost as dogs in New York against the Giants and next week, they have to go to Dallas, where they will be dogs. In between, they have this game, in which they are favored. Teams are 59-85 ATS in this spot since 2008.

Teams are 15-18 ATS in this spot as favorites of more than a touchdown, which is why I didn’t take the Eagles last week. I thought even if the Buccaneers overlooked the Eagles, they could still cover on pure talent. However, the Saints are favorites of less than a touchdown here this week and teams are 44-67 ATS in that spot. They might not overlook the Buccaneers, though, because it’s a divisional game sandwiched in between two non-divisional games. Teams are 12-17 ATS in that spot since 2008, 22-26 ATS since 2002, which isn’t much of a trend.

However, that trend does feed into one another. Teams are 32-55 ATS as favorites off back-to-back-to-back losses as dogs before being dogs since 1989. This is an extreme sandwich situation. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers are dogs before being favorites, as they host the Rams next week. Teams are 105-62 ATS as dogs before being favorites since 2011. Dogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be dogs are 116-59 ATS since 2008. It’s also worth noting that teams are 30-17 ATS as dogs off a close (1-3 points) loss as touchdown favorites. The Buccaneers overlooked the Eagles last week in preparation for this game and they’ll be extra focused this week.

This would be a bigger play if this wasn’t a divisional matchup and if the Saints weren’t so good at home. They are 12-3 ATS at home over the last 2 seasons, but only 3-3 ATS there this year without Sean Payton. I think we’re getting more than a field goal with the better team in the better spot. It’s a small play on the Buccaneers, though I’m definitely glad to be getting more than a field goal.

Public lean: New Orleans (50% range)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28 New Orleans Saints 27 Upset Pick +170

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +4 (-110) 2 units

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Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears: Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 15 NFL Picks, Bears, Packers

Green Bay Packers (9-4) at Chicago Bears  (8-5)

I’ve called the Packers overrated before. This was because they were really banged up with injuries and as a result, they weren’t really playing as well as people thought they are. Injuries to Cedric Benson and now James Starks left the mediocre Alex Green as the feature back, running behind an offensive line that struggles both to run block and pass protect. Bryan Bulaga is out for the season and TJ Lang, who moved from guard to right tackle in his absence, has also missed time. Undrafted free agent Don Barclay, who has sucked in the last two weeks in his absence, might get this start.

On the defensive side of the ball, Clay Matthews has also missed time, leaving the Packers without their top pass rusher and leaving them with only one of the 4 starting linebackers they entered into Training Camp with. Nick Perry and Desmond Bishop are on IR, while DJ Smith, who replaced Bishop, is also on IR. Charles Woodson has also missed time.

The Packers were so good in 2010 despite injuries because they still had key defensive players healthy. Clay Matthews, Desmond Bishop, Cullen Jenkins, BJ Raji, Tramon Williams, Charles Woodson, and Nick Collins were all huge for them on the league’s 2nd ranked scoring defense. Matthews and Bishop are out for the year and Woodson has also missed time. Jenkins left as a free agent and Raji hasn’t been the same since 2010. Nick Collins had to retire because of injury, leaving Williams as the only one of those 7 healthy and playing near his 2010 level this year. They’ve added some nice young players in the meantime, like Casey Hayward, but it’s not enough for them to be considered as good currently as they once were.

Last year, they were so good despite a rough defense because they dominated the turnover battle and scored 35.0 points per game. This year, thanks to injuries and the pure unsustainability of that 35.0 points per game figure, they are averaging just 24.8 points per game. That’s good, but a far cry from last season. They didn’t come into this season with the goal of being the league’s #11 scoring offense. Meanwhile, their turnover differential is down from +24 to +7. All of this has combined to expose a vulnerable and now injury riddled defense.

Look at the Packers’ last 7 games and I’ll show you what I mean. Their only win by more than 10 in that stretch was before their bye and this is despite playing Arizona, Jacksonville, St. Louis, Minnesota, and the Lions twice. Meanwhile, the only real team they played during that stretch, the Giants, absolutely blew them out. Even more embarrassing, that blowout win for the Giants was sandwiched in between straight up losses as road dogs to the Bengals and Redskins.

The Packers rank just 12th in net points per drive at 0.17, as a result. The Bears, meanwhile, rank 9th at 0.40. If you take the difference between those two figures, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per game per team), and add 2.5 points for home field, you get that line should be Chicago -5. That holds up somewhat to DVOA, as the Bears rank 6th in DVOA and weighted DVOA, while the Packers rank 5th and 7th respectively. Nothing in there says the Bears should be 3 point home dogs.

We’re getting significant line value with the Bears, especially since this line has moved significantly in the past week. This line was Chicago -1 last week and now it’s at Green Bay -3. In spite of this, the public is all over the Packers and I love fading the public, especially on heavy public leans and especially on heavy public leans after big line movements. Chicago being home dogs has put them in a good spot trends wise. Teams are 105-62 ATS as dogs before being favorites since 2011. Going off that, home dogs are 55-32 ATS before being road favorites since 2002. The Bears go to Arizona next week.

The reason this line shifted 4 points in the past week is because the Bears lost in Minnesota. People assume that was because of the Bears’ injuries (more on those later) and that they can’t possibly compete with the Packers this week because of that. Well, I’m not so shocked the Bears lost in Minnesota. The Vikings are 6-1 there, including a win over the 49ers. Besides, the Bears’ defense wasn’t why they lost. Their defense really only gave up one good scoring drive. The other two touchdowns the Vikings scored were either on a pick six or directly off a long touchdown return. Their offense was why they lost, not their defense. Their offense has generally been solid this season, so I see that as a bit of a fluke.

All this being said, these two teams are going in a different direction injury wise. Clay Matthews is expected to return for the Packers, as is TJ Lang. Jordy Nelson and Charles Woodson are still out, so they’re not 100% yet, but I’ve said they could be very dangerous if they can be healthy and Matthews’ return is huge, even if he’ll be limited in his snap count. He’s really their only good pass rusher and I wouldn’t have given them much chance to take advantage of the Bears’ weak offensive line without him.

The Bears, meanwhile, are missing not just Brian Urlacher and Tim Jennings, but they will also be without Henry Melton in this one. They didn’t seem to miss Urlacher and Jennings against Minnesota, but the Packers are a much better offense and Melton’s absence will also be huge. It’s also worth noting that the Bears have had a lot of issues beating teams of the Packers’ caliber this year. They are 1-5 ATS as dogs or favorites of less than 4, including 1-5 SU. In other situations, they are 5-1-1 ATS and 7-0 SU.

At the end of the day, I think the Bears are the right side, but I’m not that confident in it. However, I love fading heavy public leans, especially after a big line shift for no real reason. Besides, every year, one team goes from out of the playoffs to a first round bye. In order for that to happen, either the Seahawks or Bears have to win out and the Packers and 49ers have to lose once. This is the game the Packers are most likely to lose and like Seahawks/49ers next week, it will kill birds with one stone, if that is to happen once again. It’s happened every year in at least the last decade.

Public lean: Green Bay (80% range)

Chicago Bears 24 Green Bay Packers 23 Upset Pick +145

Pick against spread: Chicago +3 (-110) 2 units

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Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens: Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 15 NFL Picks, Broncos, Ravens

Denver Broncos (10-3) at Baltimore Ravens (9-4)

Before losing to the Steelers at home a few weeks ago, the Ravens had ripped off 16 straight home wins, dating back to 2010. Given that, it’s kind of weird to see them as home dogs here. It’s also kind of funny to see how far this team has fallen in the last two weeks thanks to two losses. I had been saying they weren’t as good as their record all season, but the way the public has soured on this team in just 2 weeks is a little bit of an overreaction.

It’s almost like they’ve become underrated for being overrated, that people have called them overrated so many times that we’ve forgotten they’re not a bad team. This line was Denver -1.5 a week ago and two weeks ago, they probably would have been favored. In spite of this, the public is pounding the Broncos. I love fading the public because the public always loses money in the long run.

Good teams tend to bounce back off a loss and the Ravens are no exception. In fact, on the rare occasions they’ve lost two in a row in the Joe Flacco/John Harbaugh era, they’ve almost always covered in the following game. That’s happened just 4 times since the start of the 2008 season and they’ve covered in the following game at a record of 3-1 ATS. It’s obviously a very small sample size, but it’s important to note that this team has only twice lost 3 in a row since 2008 and never since weeks 4-6 of the 2009 season.

They’re also in a good spot as dogs before being favorites as they are expected to be favored when the Giants come to town next week. Teams are 105-62 ATS in this spot over the last 2 seasons, including 17-6 ATS as home dogs before being home favorites. That being said, when we go back to 2002 to get a larger sample size, teams are just 52-47 ATS as home dogs before being home favorites, which isn’t significant at all. There’s also a decent chance that, depending on what happens this week, they will actually be home dogs next week for a good Giants team. The early lines have them as favorites, but that might not hold up. While home dogs tend to cover before being home favorites, they are just 31-46 ATS since 2008 before being home dogs again.

That’s kind of a theme for this game, uncertainty. I don’t really have a strong feel for this game as a result. The Ravens did win 16 in a row at home at one point, but they weren’t exactly blowing teams out and they weren’t exactly playing a tough schedule. This is demonstrated by the fact that the Ravens were just 7-8-1 ATS in those 16 games and they never once were home dogs like they are here.

They’re also in a very bad spot here off of a road overtime loss. If you exclude road dogs (because road dogs tend to cover off a road loss, in general), teams are 21-46 ATS off a road overtime loss since 2002, including 8-14 ATS as home dogs, as the Ravens are here. We are getting a tiny bit of line value with the Broncos, as the real line based off net points per drive is Denver -1, which holds up to DVOA. However, that’s pretty insignificant. I don’t have a real feel for this game, but gun to my head, the Broncos should be the right side, as long as the line doesn’t go above 3. If we get more than a field goal with the Ravens, I might have to take them. That’s how close this is. Put this last in any confidence pools.

Public lean: Denver (70% range)

Denver Broncos 27 Baltimore Ravens 23

Pick against spread: Denver -3 (-110) 1 unit

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Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans: Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 15 NFL Picks, Colts, Texans

Indianapolis Colts (9-4) at Houston Texans (11-2)

The Texans were calling last week’s game in New England their biggest game in franchise history and rightfully so. This is a very young franchise that has played just 2 playoff games in its history and going to New England as an 11-1 #1 seed in week 14 on Monday Night Football is almost as big as it gets. The Texans got destroyed, losing 42-14, which had to be demoralizing. Teams tend to struggle off a Monday Night Football blowout anyway. It’s just not enough time to regroup. Teams are 23-38 ATS since 2002 off a Monday Night Football of 17+, including 2-11 ATS in a divisional game off a road loss.

Meanwhile, for the Colts, this is their biggest game of the Andrew Luck era. The Texans are still the class of the AFC South and still are tied for the league’s best record at 11-2. Because of the Texans’ loss last week, the Colts now control their own destiny for the AFC South. Granted, to do that, they’d have to beat the Texans twice in three games, which seems very improbable, but don’t try to tell them that. This is a gigantic game for them. They’ll be extra focused as they don’t have anything to worry about next week, with only a trip to Kansas City on the schedule.

The Colts have the major trends advantage. I already mentioned the teams off a MNF blowout one, but there are more. Teams are 105-62 ATS as dogs before being favorites in the last 2 seasons. Going of that, double digits dogs, like the Colts are here, are 46-29 ATS since 2002 before being favorites, including 14-7 ATS as divisional double digit dogs before being non-divisional favorites. If we go back to 1989 to get a larger sample size, that trend is 39-16 ATS. Also since 1989, teams are 16-7 ATS as double digit dogs before being away favorites, which the Colts will be in Kansas City next week.

All that being said, I still feel the Colts are overrated. Of their 9 wins, only 1 has come by more than a touchdown. Meanwhile, 3 of their 4 losses have come by 20 or more. As a result, they have a -37 points differential that is significantly worse than their 9-4 record. For reference, the 5-8 Dolphins are at -36. They’ve also played a joke schedule. They are playing a last place schedule in the weaker of the two conferences. They play in arguably the worst division in football and they have yet to play Houston, the only other competent team in their division, thanks to a scheduling quirk. They have had to face the tough NFC North, but also the crappy AFC East, which is probably the 2nd worst division in the NFL, so that kind of balances out.

As a result of this, they rank 22nd in net points per drive at -0.30 and even worse in DVOA and weighted DVOA, which take things like schedule into account. They rank 28th and 26th respectively in those two statistics. The Texans, meanwhile, rank 6th in net points per drive at 0.55. In DVOA, they are also worse than they are in net points per drive. After all, they haven’t faced a particularly tough schedule either. They rank 8th in both.

We can safely say that any real line computed from net points per drive will hold up to DVOA. If we take the difference between these two teams’ net points per drives and multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per game per team) and add 2.5 points for home field advantage, we get a real line of Houston -12. That means we have line value with the Texans, before even taking into account that Houston has had the slightly tougher schedule, playing a 1st place schedule, instead of a last place schedule.

In spite of this, the public is still on the Colts, which makes them a public underdog. I love fading the public every chance I get, but I especially love fading them when they back a dog. The public always loses money in the long run. Despite the fact that the Colts are publicly backed, this line, which looks weird if you only consider records, is getting even bigger. It opened around 8 or 8.5 and now it’s at 10. That’s reverse line action and is normally the sign of a trap line. Trap lines are much more common when the public is on a favorite, but in theory it can happen when the public is on a dog.

I think the odds makers have known the Colts are overrated for a long time. They’re not stupid. They know all the net points per drive stuff and all this stuff I mention. That’s why they were +9.5 in New England, where they got blown out as public dogs. That’s why they opened -3 for the Bills at home and then dropped down to -2.5 even though the public was all over the Colts. They easily could have lost that game if not for a special teams touchdown and even a 7 point home win over the Bills is nothing to brag about.

The following week, we had a similar situation to the one here, with the Colts being a public dog and the line moving in the opposite direction as they opened as 5 point dogs against a 4-win Detroit team, but ended up being 7 point dogs when the lines closed, in spite of all the public action on the Colts. And they were down 12 in that game to the crappy Lions, before mounting an improbable comeback. Last week, they opened as 5.5 home favorites against the crappy Titans. That went down to 4.5 before the end of the week even though the Colts were the most heavily backed public team of the week and the Colts did not cover, beating the crappy Titans by just 4 and even trailing by multiple scores early in the game.

All the trends say the Colts are the right side, but I just can’t take them. They’ve only beaten one good team all season, the Packers in that ChuckStrong game early in the season and that was at home. They’ve gotten blown out by the only two good teams they’ve faced on the road, losing by 20 in Chicago and 35 in New England.

They really struggle on the road in general, with only 3 road wins against the crappy Jaguars, the crappy Lions, after a huge comeback, and the crappy Titans, in overtime by 6. Meanwhile, they’ve lost by 20 in Chicago, 35 in New England, even the freaking Jets blew them out by 26. I really don’t think they can hang with the Texans on the road. Even with all the trends in their favor, this looks like a blowout waiting to happen and the odds makers actions support that. They’re certainly expecting a blowout and they’re not a bad group of people to have agree with you. I can’t put a big play on the Texans, but they should be the right side.

Public lean: Indianapolis (50% range)

Houston Texans 27 Indianapolis Colts 16

Pick against spread: Houston -10 (-110) 2 units

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Minnesota Vikings at St. Louis Rams: Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 15 NFL Picks, Rams, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (7-6) at St. Louis Rams (6-6-1)

The Vikings won last week as home dogs against the Bears, but I’m still not sure about them. Christian Ponder once again had a terrible game, completing 11 of 17 for 91 yards and an interception. In his last 7 games, he’s 107 of 191 (56.0%) for 970 yards (5.1 YPA), 6 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions. Adrian Peterson is awesome, but you can’t win in the NFL without at least decent quarterback play.

Illustrating this, they are 2-4 this year when Ponder completes 60% or fewer of his passes and 4-2 when Adrian Peterson rushes for 5.0 yards per carry or less. Against Green Bay, Peterson went off for 210 yards and they still lost 23-14. Last week, they beat the Bears by 7, but not because of their offense. Their defense returned one Jay Cutler interception for a touchdown and another one to the goal line, setting the Vikings up with an easy touchdown. Their offense only really led one good drive all game and Peterson did almost all of the work. Unless Ponder can start playing at least serviceably, they’re going to struggle to consistently lead good drives.

That win last week pushed the Vikings at 6-1 SU at home, as opposed to 1-5 SU on the road, and that one home loss was against Tampa Bay on a Thursday Night, when weird things happen. At home, they are 5-2 ATS and they are 1-5 ATS on the road. Maybe it shouldn’t be so surprising that they upset the Bears last week, especially in kind of a fluky way. They’re a good home team. Winning on the road is another issue. That same Bears team blew them out on the road 2 weeks prior.

They’re also in a bad spot as non-divisional road dogs off a win as divisional home dogs. Teams are 33-52 ATS in this spot since 1989. After such a huge divisional win last week, they could easily be flat for St. Louis. Going off that, the Vikings are in the middle of a very tough stretch right now. Since week 10, they’ve faced the Lions, the Bears, the Packers, and the Bears. Now they have the Rams before finishing up with the Texans and the Packers. They’ve played 4 straight games against divisional foes and then after this they have an 11-2 Houston squad and the division leading Packers. Think they might be in a bit of a breather game situation against the Rams?

Speaking of those Rams, they’re actually playing some nice football lately. Since their bye, they’ve covered in 4 of 5, with that one non-cover coming against the Jets, in a game that the Jets had all the trends on their side. They tied the 49ers, beat the 49ers, and got road wins as dogs in Buffalo and Arizona as dogs. Improved health on their offensive line is to thank and this week they get even healthier as Danny Amendola is expected to return.

We are getting some line value with the Vikings using the net points per drive method as that says this line should be a pick em. The Vikings are 20th in net points per drive at -0.14, while the Rams are 25th at -0.40. If we take the difference, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per game per team), and factor in 2.5 points for home field, we get that this line should be a true pick em. However, that doesn’t hold up to DVOA, which has the Vikings just one spot better than the Rams, who are 19th, and it certainly doesn’t hold up to weighted DVOA, which weights more heavily recent games. The Rams rank 19th in that one as well, but the Vikings are 23rd.

Finally, I also really like that the public is all over Minnesota off of that win against the Bears. I love fading the public on heavy leans, especially heavy leans on dogs. The public always loses money in the long run. This is a breather game for a Vikings team that struggles to move the ball aerially and to play on the road against an underrated and finally healthy Rams team. I like the Rams for a significant play. They’re also my survivor pick in a bad week for survivor picks.

Public lean: Minnesota (70% range)

St. Louis Rams 20 Minnesota Vikings 12 Survivor Pick (HOU, NE, NO, BAL, SF, ATL, CHI, GB, SD, PIT, DAL, DEN, DET, SEA)

Pick against spread: St. Louis -2.5 (-110) 3 units

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Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants: Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 15 NFL Picks, Falcons, Giants

New York Giants (8-5) at Atlanta Falcons (11-2)

Every year in the Tom Coughlin era, the Giants have a 2nd half slide. Since he took over in 2004, they are 53-19 in the first 8 games of the season and 29-40 in the second 8 games of the season. This year has been no different as they started 6-2, but thanks to a 2-3 stretch, they are now 8-5, not bad, but not as good as it once looked.

It’s not all Eli Manning’s fault, but there is a noticeable dip in his 2nd half production as compared to his 1st half production. He completes 57% of his passes for an average of 6.7 YPA and 94 touchdowns to 81 interceptions in the 2nd half, as opposed to 60% of his passes for an average of 7.4 YPA and 111 touchdowns to 61 interceptions in the first half.

They blew out the Saints last week, but I wouldn’t be so sure that everything is fine, especially given their 2nd half history. They blew out the Packers 3 weeks ago and then responded by losing as favorites in Washington the next week. That loss actually pushed their record off a 2nd half win by 14 or more to 3-6 SU since 2004. Their huge win over the Saints was a little fluky too. If not for over 400 return yards, the first time a team has done that since 2000, they could have lost. After all, they were outgained and the rest of the teams’ stats looked fairly similar.

What that win did do was get people believing in them again. Most of the guys on ESPN are picking them to win this one and the Giants, as mere 1 point dogs against an 11-2 team, are a very heavy public lean. Not only do I love fading the public (especially when they back a dog and especially when they back a dog this heavily), Giants fans will tell you, it’s not a good thing that people believe in this team. That tends to be when they disappoint and they’re deadly when people are doubting them.

This week they have to go to Atlanta, who isn’t as good as their record, but they’re still a good team. It’s almost like they’ve become underrated for being overrated, that people called them overrated so many times that people don’t think they’re even a good team. They’re not 11-2 good, but I have trouble believing that they deserve to be mere 1 point home favorites against anyone. Maybe New England, but no one else. The real line is at Atlanta -1, based on the net points per drive method, which holds up to DVOA, but that still seems a little ridiculous. They’re also dogs and there have only been 2 instances in the last 23 years of a team being home dogs with 2 or fewer losses in week 13 or later.

Another big reason this line seems ridiculous to me is because of Matt Ryan’s dominance at home. He’s a ridiculous 31-5 at home in his career. At times I’ve wondered if they have become a better road team than home team this season, as all 3 of their wins by more than 10 points have come on the road, and because they’ve struggled to beat inferior teams like Arizona, Oakland, Carolina, and Dallas at home. But they are still 6-0 SU at home this season and even though they haven’t always covered the spread at home this year, Matt Ryan is still 23-12 ATS as home in his career.

If not for their 2008-2011 history, I’d be concerned that, in spite of their 6-0 home record, they’d lose this one because they haven’t really played anyone at home and they’ve barely beaten some bad teams. However, because of their history at home, I like them to win this game. They’re especially good as non-divisional home favorites, going 13-6 ATS (18-2 SU) as non-divisional home favorites in the Matt Ryan era.

Another situation they’ve been really good in since 2008, when Mike Smith and Matt Ryan came in, is off a loss. Well coached teams tend to bounce back off a loss and the Falcons are just that. In fact, if Mike Smith’s name were anything other than Mike Smith, he’d probably be talked about as one of the better Head Coaches in the NFL. He’s a ridiculous 17-4 ATS off a loss.

I’ve been down on Atlanta a lot this year, but I love them this week. The Giants are not a good 2nd half team. They’re not good when people believe in them and I love betting against such a heavy public lean. Meanwhile, this is a statement game for an Atlanta team that always gets it done at home and always bounces back well off a loss.

Public lean: Atlanta (80% range)

Atlanta Falcons 27 New York Giants 20

Pick against spread: Atlanta -1 (-110) 3 units

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New York Jets at Tennessee Titans: Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 15 NFL Picks, Jets, Titans

New York Jets (6-7) at Tennessee Titans (4-9)

The Titans are 4-9, which isn’t very good at all, but if you can believe it, they’re even worse than their record. Of their 9 losses, 5 have come by 21 or more and only one of their 4 wins have come by more than a field goal. As a result, they rank 29th in net points per drive, DVOA, and weighted DVOA. The Jets aren’t as good as their 6-7 record either, as they are 24th in net points per drive and DVOA and 25th in weighted DVOA, but the Titans don’t deserve to be favorites here.

Using the net points per drive method, the Jets should be 1.5 point favorites here. The Titans are at -0.76 in points per drive and the Jets are at -0.38. If you take the difference, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per game per team), and add 2.5 to Tennessee’s side for home field, you get that the Jets should be 1.5 point favorites, rather than the Titans being that.

The Jets also have the trends on their side. Teams are 105-62 ATS as dogs before being favorites in 2011 and they host the Chargers next week. That trend becomes 116-59 ATS since 2008 when their opponent will next be dogs and the Titans have a much bigger game in Green Bay next week. When all 3 games (current, next, and opponent’s next) are non-divisional, that trend is 35-15 ATS since 2008.

Speaking of that Green Bay game, teams are 25-48 ATS as favorites before being double digit dogs, which they should be in Green Bay next week. Going off that, the Titans are in the sandwich situation. Teams are 59-85 ATS since 2008 as favorites off a loss as dogs before being dogs, including 44-67 ATS as favorites of less than a touchdown. For good teams, this is a huge breather spot. For bad teams, well they don’t deserve to be favorites and the Titans fall into that latter category. It’s also worth noting that the Jets are 5-1 SU (4-2 ATS) as dogs or favorites of 3 or less and 0-6 SU (2-4 ATS) as dogs of more than 3. They’re beating up on mediocre and crappy teams this season and I expect that to continue this week.

Rather than putting 3 units on the spread and 1 unit on the money line, I’m going to put all 4 on the money line. I was burned doing this a few weeks ago because the Buccaneers lost by 1 as 1.5 point dogs and I took the money line instead. However, that was just the 8th time in the last 23 years that a 1.5 point or 1 point dog had lost a game by exactly 1 point. Going into that game, since 1989, there had been 414 teams who have been favorites of less than 2. Of those 414 teams, only 7 of those teams lost by exactly 1 point, about 1.7%. I still say that was the smart move after some thought and I’m going to do that again here. It’s not worth the extra 20 cents on the dollar for something that will hurt me about 2% of the time, however terrible I feel when it does.

Public lean: Tennessee (50% range)

New York Jets 20 Tennessee Titans 16 Upset Pick +110 4 units

Pick against spread: NY Jets +1.5 (-110) 0 units

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins: Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 15 NFL Picks, Dolphins, Jaguars

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-11) at Miami Dolphins (5-8)

I’ve mentioned the six and six trend here several times. Teams are 23-64 ATS since 2002 as favorites of 6 or more if they finish with 6 wins or fewer. The Dolphins might be a candidate for that here as 7.5 point favorites over the Jaguars. They are currently 5-8 and need to go 2-1 in their final 3 games to finish 7-9 or better. They’re favored in 2 of their final 3 games, but that doesn’t mean they’ll win both of them and I highly doubt they win in New England week 17. If they slip up once in their next 2 games, maybe against an improved Buffalo squad next week in Miami, they’d be an obvious fit for the six and six trend.

Going off of that, it’s worth mentioning that teams who have 5 wins or fewer are 6-12 ATS as favorites of a touchdown or more in week 15 or later, including 2-7 ATS as favorites of 7.5 or more, as the Dolphins are here. It doesn’t really seem like the Dolphins should be favored by this much. We are actually getting some line value with the Dolphins as the real line for this game is -9. The Dolphins rank 21st in net points per drive at -0.18, while the Jaguars rank 30th at -0.79. If you take the difference and multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per game per team), you get Miami -9 and that holds up to DVOA, as Miami ranks 20th in regular and 23rd in weighted, while the Jaguars rank 31st in both.

However, the Jaguars are playing better football under Chad Henne. He’s certainly inconsistent, but even on his bad days, he’s not much worse, if any worse, than Blaine Gabbert was and on his good days he’s almost beaten the Texans in Houston and won as home dogs against the Titans. That’s certainly something that could play a factor here.

It’s also worth noting that the Dolphins have been a much better road team than home team over the past 5 years, going 12-25 ATS at home and 25-14 ATS on the road. It’s unclear how much that means since they’re 2-3 ATS at home this year and 3-4 ATS on the road, but it’s still worth noting. They’ve also failed to cover their last 11 instance as home dogs of more than 3, including twice this year.

The Jaguars, meanwhile, are 5-1 ATS on the road and before a game in Buffalo a few weeks ago, their biggest road loss was by 9 in Green Bay. If they lose by 7 or less here, they cover. There’s too much uncertainty here for me to make this a huge play, but the Jaguars should be the right side in this one. If Henne weren’t so inconsistent, it’d be 4 or 5 units, but I’m still taking the Jaguars for 3.

Public lean: Miami (60% range)

Miami Dolphins 17 Jacksonville Jaguars 13

Pick against spread: Jacksonville +7.5 (-110) 3 units

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