Offense
Believe it or not, if the Jaguars had beaten the Colts week 15 in 2010, they would have won the division and made the playoffs. They didn’t and they lost their final 2 games and finished the season 8-8 outside of the playoffs. Last offseason, they decided to rebuild and gave up their 2nd round pick to move up 6 spots from 16 to 10 to select Blaine Gabbert, despite having solid game manager David Garrard on the roster.
The veteran Garrard was cut in the preseason for financial reasons as they didn’t want to pay a non-franchise quarterback 8 million per year. Instead, a cheaper veteran, Luke McCown, started the season, but he sucked and lasted just 2 games. Gabbert was thrust into the starting role far before he was ready and he was absolutely awful, completing just 50.8% of his passes for an average of 5.4 YPA, 12 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions.
It didn’t help that he had no supporting cast. His leading receivers were tight end Marcedes Lewis (39/460/0), wide receiver Mike Thomas (44/415/1), and running back Maurice Jones Drew (43/374/3). After that, no one else on the team managed more than 367 yards or 29 catches. Gabbert was also sacked 40 times, behind an offensive line that surrendered 44 total, good for 7th most in the NFL. David Garrard always made the most of a poor supporting cast and rather than bulking up their supporting cast with a 1st and 2nd round pick, they used both of those on Blaine Gabbert and jettisoned Garrard.
The Jaguars made a focus of this offseason bulking up their offensive supporting cast. They traded up to the 5th overall pick to grab the draft class’ top wide receiver, Justin Blackmon, and also gave Laurent Robinson a massive deal, paying him 32.5 million over 5 years. They also return a starting offensive lineman, former 2nd round pick Eben Britton, from injury, and, of course, Maurice Jones Drew is still one of the best in the business.
Quarterback
However, none of that will matter if Gabbert is a lost cause. It sounds weird to call a quarterback a lost cause after one year, but I never understood Gabbert’s rise to the top-10 in the 2011 NFL Draft in the first place. This is a guy who averaged 6.7 YPA and threw 16 touchdowns to 9 interceptions in his final year at Missouri in a conference that doesn’t play any defense.
His “intangibles” were why he rose, in spite of his production, but he certainly didn’t look like a leader with strong intangibles last year as he struggled mightily with pocket presence for a team that won 5 games. Gabbert even has some doubters within the organization as several people support newly signed backup Chad Henne over him.
GM Gene Smith obviously supports him because he drafted him, but even he at the very least signed off on the addition of Henne. If the Jaguars struggle this year, Smith could be gone, as could Gabbert (remember, since 1st round picks make significantly less money now, they have less job security). In fact, I wouldn’t be shocked if Gabbert were benched for Henne midseason this year.
Henne, a 2008 2nd round pick, has completed 60.7% for his passes for an average of 6.7 YPA, 31 touchdowns, and 37 interceptions in 4 seasons in the NFL. He was 0-4 for the Dolphins last year before getting hurt. Matt Moore went 6-6 with them down the stretch. Matt Moore. Henne may be an upgrade over Gabbert, but all that does is reinforce the fact that Gabbert sucks.
No team in the league had fewer passing yards (2179) or a lower YPA (5.4) than the Jaguars last year, while only St. Louis threw for fewer touchdowns (12) and only Denver completed a lower percentage of their passes (51.2%). No team in the league had a lower passer rating (62.2). In fact, no team was even within 6 points of their passer rating. The only team within 250 yards of their passing yards total was Denver, who ran a glorified triple option, and aside from them, no other team had less than 2870 yards, 691 more than Jacksonville had.
In the last 6 seasons (2006-2011), only one team, Derek Anderson, Brady Quinn and the 2009 Cleveland Browns, had fewer yards than the Jaguars did last year (2076). Even the Jimmy Clausen led Panthers in 2010 had more yards. Gabbert was that bad. In a passing league, that is not a recipe for winning games. Since 2006, 21 teams have averaged 6.0 YPA or worse. Of those 21 teams, 19 won 5 or fewer games, none won more than 7 and as a group they averaged 3.9 wins per season and 14.8 points per game. In order for the Jaguars to have averaged 6.1 YPA last year, on 469 attempts, they would have had to throw for 2861 yards, 682 more than they actually did. They may improve this year, but I don’t think they’ll improve that much.
Grade: D
Running Backs
The biggest reason the Jaguars exceeded that 3.9 wins average last year is that they had the league’s leading rusher. Maurice Jones Drew was amazing. Despite concerns over the health of his knee in the offseason, MJD led the league in carries by a whopping 42 and rushed for 1606 yards, 266 more than any other back in the league. He was also the team’s 3rd leading receiver and somehow managed to score 11 times. He did all of this despite getting no help from the passing game and consistently facing stacked boxes.
However, history shows that he might not be able to do that again. Since 1988, only 4 of 23 running backs who led the league in carry surpassed their rushing yards total the following season. 2 of those backs were Emmitt Smith and one was a 22 year old Edgerrin James in his 2nd year in the league. The other was a 27 year old Clinton Portis, so it’s not impossible to do it several years into your career without being Emmitt Smith, but the numbers are against him. Portis also went on to break down the very next year (124/494/1) and was out of the league before his 30th birthday. MJD is 27, by the way.
Since 1988, backs who lead the league in carries have averaged 368.8 carries per season, rushed for 1621.0 yards, and scored 14.6 touchdowns. The following season, they averaged 273.8 carries per season, rushed for 1091.7 yards, and scored 9.2 touchdowns. This is for two reasons. For one, it’s almost impossible to keep up that kind of production on a yearly basis and that doesn’t just apply to running backs. What does apply to only running backs is how much they tire out. All of those carries puts a lot of tread on their tires in a short period of time. We’re talking about guys who are lucky if they have 8 year careers. This is especially true for someone like Maurice Jones-Drew, who got 952 of his yards after contact, most in the league.
On top of that, he’s not helping matters by holding out. MJD skipped mandatory minicamp and could skip some of Training Camp in protest of his contract. Right now, the Jaguars’ stance is that they won’t even talk contract with MJD, who has two years left on his deal. This is starting to look an awful lot like the Chris Johnson scenario last year. Johnson worried more about money than his performance, held out until right before the season, missed all of Training Camp and the Preseason with a new coaching staff coming in, didn’t stay in shape on his own and became complacent once he was actually paid, rushing for 1047 yards and 4 touchdowns on 262 carries.
If Maurice Jones-Drew regresses, the Jaguars will need Rashad Jennings to take some of the slack off of him. Jennings, a 2009 6th round pick, missed all of last season with a knee injury after the team put him on IR once his PUP eligibility ran out after week 6. Jennings was medically cleared a week later and didn’t need surgery, which might sound like a good thing, but it’s kind of pathetic that his coaching staff put him on IR, rather than activating him even though he was only going to miss another week. They clearly didn’t think very highly on him. He only has 123 career carries.
Needless to say, the Jaguars are in big, big trouble offensively unless MJD can replicate what he did last year, which seems very unlikely. Between rushing and receiving yards, he had 47.7% of his teams yards, a number that makes you think it’s 1985 again. By the way, the 4149 yards the Jaguars had last season were the fewest in the NFL by 392 yards.
Grade: A-
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
The Jaguars made their receiving corps a focus of their offseason, but how much did they really upgrade things? I mean obviously, by default, Laurent Robinson and Justin Blackmon are upgrades over Mike Thomas, Jarrett Dillard, Jason Hill, Chastin West, and Cecil Shorts (sadly their leaders, in order, of snaps played at wide receiver last year). However, Blackmon is just a rookie and rookie receivers normally take a year to adjust to the speed of the NFL and learn the playbook. Julio Jones and AJ Green were obviously exceptions last season, but both played in Pro Style offenses, unlike Blackmon, and both played in the SEC, which is the closest thing you’ll get to NFL defenses at the collegiate level.
Blackmon will probably fall into the large group of rookie receivers who struggle. Discounting Jones and Green, since the 2005 NFL Draft, 22 receivers have gone in the 1st round of the NFL Draft. In their rookie years, they have averaged 37 catches for 524 yards and 3 touchdowns. And this is not a group of busts. This group includes, among others, Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Michael Crabtree, Percy Harvin, Hakeem Nicks, Jeremy Maclin, Kenny Britt, Calvin Johnson, Dwayne Bowe, Robert Meachem, Santonio Holmes, Braylon Edwards, and Roddy White. The leader in rookie production among those 22, strangely Dwayne Bowe, who caught 70 passes for 995 yards and 5 touchdowns in 2007. That just proves how special Julio Jones’ and AJ Green’s rookie years were, but I don’t see that happening for Blackmon. It’s too improbable.
Laurent Robinson, on the other hand, was a classic case of the Jaguars buying high. Robinson was cut by the Rams and Chargers last offseason and picked up by the Cowboys. With the Cowboys, he caught 54 passes for 858 yards and 11 touchdowns. Great numbers, but his career highs before that were 37 catches, 437 yards, and 2 touchdowns. In a 4 year career, he had 89 catches for 1000 yards and 4 touchdowns before last year. Receivers changing teams have a dubious history to begin with. Robinson’s one year wonder status makes him even more likely to become a free agency bust.
Meanwhile, Mike Thomas will line up in the slot. Thomas caught 44 passes for 408 yards last year and averaged 4.7 yards per target, worst in the league among eligible wide receivers (50% of their teams snaps), though that may have just been Blaine Gabbert. For what it’s worth, Thomas’ best position would appear to be the slot. He did catch 66 passes for 820 yards and 4 touchdowns in 2010 with a capable quarterback, which he currently lacks.
Tight end Marcedes Lewis led the team in receiving with 39 catches for 460 yards, but that’s not saying much and he didn’t even score. The Jaguars signed Lewis to a 35 million dollar deal over 5 years last offseason after the former 1st round pick caught 58 passes for 700 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2010. However, in 4 years prior, he had never exceeded 41 catches, 518 yards, or 2 touchdowns and was always seen as a disappointment. The Jaguars seem to like this buying high thing.
Grade: C+
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Offensive Line
Gabbert was sacked 40 times last year and the Jaguars allowed 44 sacks on the season, 7th most in the NFL. However, you can blame a lot of that on Gabbert’s terrible pocket presence. The Jaguars’ offensive line only surrendered 25 quarterback hits and 111 quarterback pressures on the year. Gabbert just took too many sacks he shouldn’t have.
He was actually only the 12th most pressured quarterback in the league last year among 24 eligible quarterbacks (50% of their team’s drop backs), pressured on 32.2% of the Jaguars snaps. Only Matt Moore took a sack on a higher percentage of pressured snaps than Gabbert, taking one on 26.1% of pressured snaps. Gabbert was 20th in completion percentage under pressure and 23rd in accuracy percentage under pressure (discounts drops, throw aways, spikes, batted passes, and hit as throwns).
In accuracy percentage in general, he was dead last (62.2%, for comparison’s sake, Aaron Rodgers’ was 80.6%). If we go down to quarterbacks who took 25% or more of their team’s drop backs, only Tim Tebow was less accurate in general, and no quarterback was less accurate on deep throws (27.8%). There’s a reason he had ProFootballFocus’ worst rating of any player at any position, -49.9. No quarterback was even within 22 points of him.
Oh, wait, this section was supposed to be about the offensive line, wasn’t it? Alright, well the Jaguars have a decent offensive line, they just have a dud quarterback that makes them look worse than they are. They’ll also be getting Eben Britton back from injury. Britton missed most of last season with injuries, but when healthy, he’s a solid right tackle.
That’s a good thing because he’ll replace an offensive lineman who actually does suck. Guy Whimper (what kind of name is that for an offensive lineman?) allowed a league leading 14 sacks playing primarily on the right side and it wasn’t just Gabbert’s fault. He also allowed 7 quarterback hits and 27 quarterback pressures and rated with a -13.5 on ProFootballFocus. He was alright as a run blocker and only committed 3 penalties, but ranked 67th among 76 offensive linemen as a pass blocker. Should he be healthy, Britton will be a major upgrade.
Another player who actually sucked last year on the offensive line for the Jaguars was left guard Will Rackley. Rackley was rated worst at his position with a -35.7 rating. He allowed 6 sacks, 7 quarterback hits, and 27 quarterback pressures, committed 8 penalties, and sucked as a run blocker. The Jaguars didn’t replace him, but he was just a 3rd round rookie so he could bounce back.
The rest of the offensive line is really solid though. The 8th overall pick in the 2009 NFL Draft, Eugene Monroe, allowed 9 sacks, but that was mostly Gabbert’s fault as he also only allowed 4 quarterback hits, and 12 quarterback pressures. He was only penalized 5 times and run blocked well so he finished 7th among offensive tackles with a 12.1 rating. He’s really come into his own.
Center Brad Meester has been in his own for a while. Heading into his age 35 season, he’s still getting it done, ranking 11th at his position with a 6.9 rating, performing above average as both a run blocker and a pass protector. His age is a bit of a concern, as is the fact that the Jaguars don’t appear to have a replacement should his abilities fall off a cliff, but interior offensive line normally age pretty well. John Estes, a 2010 undrafted free agent, is their primary backup so this could be a position they address this offseason as Meester will be a free agent. They could also move Rackley to center and look for a new guard or move Rackley to center and Britton to guard and look for a new right tackle.
Rounding out the offensive line is Uche Nwanari. Nwanari is best known for bashing Tim Tebow before the 2010 NFL Draft when it was rumored that the Jaguars could be interested in him. He’s still a solid player though. This is not a bad offensive line. It just looks that way because of who is playing under center and, unless he can make some sort of major leap forward, this figures to be a disastrous offense once again in 2012, especially if MJD slips up even a little, which seems very likely.
Grade: B
Defense
Along with Maurice Jones Drew, the Jaguars’ defense was part of the reason why they exceeded the 3.9 wins per season average of teams who averaged 6.0 or fewer YPA. Their scoring defense ranked 11th with 20.6 points per game. Their passing defense ranked 13th with 6.9 YPA. And their rushing defense ranked 5th with 3.8 YPC. The Jaguars did that in spite of some injuries, but they hardly have an elite defense and if they struggle mightily to move the ball through the air offensively again, their solid defense will be wasted on a 5 win or fewer team (just like 19 of the last 21 teams who averaged 6.0 YPA or worse).
Defensive Line
One area the Jaguars made a focus of their offseason was their pass rush. Over the past 3 years, the Jaguars had managed a combined 71 sacks, maxing out at 31 sacks last year, tied for 27th in the NFL. The Jaguars used a 2nd round pick on Andre Branch and would have used their 1st round pick on Melvin Ingram had they been unable to move up for Justin Blackmon. Branch will compete with inexperienced 2010 5th round pick Austen Lane for the starting job, a competition he may win. At the very least, Branch is a much better pass rusher than Lane and will see significant snaps on passing downs.
Whoever starts there will play opposite Jeremy Mincey, who broke out last season. Mincey, an unknown heading into the season, ranked 12th among 4-3 defensive ends on ProFootballFocus last season with a 21.3 rating. He played the run well and rushed the passer well. On 551 pass rush snaps, he managed 8 sacks, 11 quarterback hits, and 38 quarterback pressures, good for a rate of 10.3%. He was rewarded with a 4 year, 27.2 million dollar deal, though this wasn’t really a buying high move for the Jaguars because he was only guaranteed 9 million.
At defensive tackle, the Jaguars will start 2010 1st round pick Tyson Alualu. Alualu was regarded as a reach at 10th overall in 2010 and he hasn’t done anything to shake that label since. He was absolutely awful last year. With a -17.7 rating, he ranked 87th at his position out of 89 and he was equally terrible as a pass rusher and a run stuffer. On 511 pass rush snaps, he had 3 sacks, 4 quarterback hits, and 16 quarterback pressures, good for a rate of 4.5%. He was better as a pass rusher in 2010, but he’s always been bad against the run. That’s why so many people didn’t think he was worth a top-10 pick. He’s one dimensional at best. At worst, he’s terrible. One more year like last year and the Jaguars may have to think about replacing him.
For this year, however, they don’t have much to replace him with. Another 2010 pick, 3rd round pick D’Anthony Smith, has been a disappointment, but for different reasons. Smith hasn’t even played a snap in the NFL, missing all of 2010 with a torn Achilles and all of 2011 with a torn ligament in his two. He might not even make the roster this year.
Terrance Knighton is supposed to start opposite Tyson Alualu. The big 317 pounder isn’t much of a pass rusher, but he’s an above average run stuffer who, at the very least, can be a situational player. This is, of course, assuming he’s healthy. Knighton injured his eye in a bar fight this offseason and hasn’t been able to do much football related. He’s on pace to be able to play week 1, but it’s still a concern to note. He’s also dealt with weight and durability issues in the past. CJ Mosley is another player who played significant snaps at defensive tackle last year. He too is a solid run stuffer, but offers no pass rush. After not managing much pass rush from the interior of their defensive line last year, I don’t expect them to get much from it this year again.
Grade: B-
Linebackers
The linebackers are the Jaguars’ best defensive group. They have two of the best linebackers in the league in Daryl Smith and Paul Posluszny. With a 27.6 rating, Smith ranked only below Daryl Smith among 4-3 outside linebackers last year, while Posluszny ranked 6th among middle linebackers with a 21.0 rating. Both are well rounded players who are above average in all 3 facets of the game, stopping the run, dropping into coverage, and even rushing the passer as a blitzer.
The 3rd linebacker will either be Clint Session or Russell Allen. Session is overpaid thanks to a ridiculous 29 million dollar deal over 5 years he got last offseason and because of this, he’s expected to win the starting job. He’s a decent player, but Russell Allen actually outplayed him last year when Session was out of the lineup, which was most of the year. Session suffered 3 separate concussions last year, a major concern going forward. One more could end his career.
Grade: A-
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Secondary
The secondary is where the Jaguars had major injury issues. Their top three cornerbacks, Derek Cox, Rashean Mathis, and William Middleton, all finished last season on IR and none of them played more than 542 snaps. Because of all of their injuries, Drew Coleman, Ashton Youbouty, and Kevin Rutland all had to play more than 268 snaps and only Coleman played well. Coleman is now gone.
To add to their depth, the Jaguars signed Aaron Ross. Ross is a 2007 1st round pick, but a bit of a disappointment. He’s always struggled when he’s been counted on to start even though he’s always had the Giants’ strong pass rush in front of him. Ross will compete with Rashean Mathis for the #2 cornerback job. As disappointing as Ross is, he deserves to win the job. Mathis hasn’t been good for at least 2 or 3 years and now he’s heading into his age 32 season and coming off a torn ACL.
William Middleton will line up on the slot again now that he’s healthy. He’s one of the league’s top slot cornerbacks and ranked tied for 9th among all cornerbacks last year on ProFootballFocus. He allowed 19 completions on 30 attempts (63.3%) for 164 yards (5.5), 1 touchdowns, and 1 interception, while deflecting 3 passes and committing 1 penalty. He was arguably the top pure slot cornerback in the league last year. He doesn’t have a history of injury problems before last year and he didn’t miss that many games (4) last year. He’s also only heading into his age 26 season.
Derek Cox, meanwhile, is the X-factor. He’ll start opposite either Ross or Mathis and be the #1 cornerback. Cox, a surprise 3rd round pick in the 2009 NFL Draft, didn’t play well as a starter in either 2009 or 2010, but was awesome to start the season last year. He allowed just 9 completions on 28 attempts (32.1%) for 105 yards (3.8 YPA), no touchdowns, and no interceptions, while deflecting 3 passes and being penalized once. His 44.5 QB rating would have been 2nd in the league had he had enough snaps to qualify. If he can stay healthy and keep that up over an entire season, he’ll emerge as one of the top cornerbacks in the league, but those are pretty big ifs.
At safety, the Jaguars had additional injuries. Free safety Dwight Lowery also finished the year on IR, missing his team’s final 4 games. When healthy, he was an average safety who is better in coverage than against the run. He was resigned this offseason on a 4 year, 13.6 million dollar deal, which seems a little excessive, but whatever. Opposite him is the Jaguars’ only starting defensive back who made it through the season, Dawan Landry. He was overpaid last offseason with a 5 year, 27.5 million dollar deal because he sucks in coverage, but he’s strong against the run and a decent starter.
Obviously better health in the secondary would help as the Jaguars were using a secondary filled with guys like Drew Coleman, Kevin Rutland, Ashton Youbouty, and Akwasi Owusu-Ansah down the stretch last year, but the guys they’re starting when they’re at full strength are hardly an elite bunch. Derek Cox playing like he did in limited action last year for the entirety of this season would really help, but that’s a major if. They have some talented guys, but this is not nearly a good enough defense to make up for their awful offense.
Grade: B
Head Coach
The Jaguars hired Mike Mularkey as Head Coach this offseason. Mularkey has two years of NFL Head Coaching experience, going 14-18 with the Bills from 2004-2005, actually pretty impressive for the Bills. The last time the Bills had a winning record, he was the Coach, going 9-7 in 2004. He wasn’t fired in Buffalo, but resigned after a disagreement with management. He spent the last 4 years as the Falcons offensive coordinator after spending the previous 2 in Miami. He was with the Falcons as they developed a young quarterback in Matt Ryan. There were certainly more head scratching hirings this offseason.
Grade: B-
Overall
Unless the Jaguars get at least mediocre play from the quarterback position, they will be a doormat. Blaine Gabbert looks as close to a lost cause as a player one year removed from being the 10th overall pick can be. Teams that average less than 6.0 YPA have won, on average, 3.9 wins per season and scored 14.8 points per game since 2006. None have won more than 7 games and 19 of the 21 have won 5 or fewer. If they throw as many times as they did last year (not that many), Gabbert will have to throw for 682 more yards than the Jaguars did as a team last year just to get to 6.1 YPA.
Gabbert also makes their offensive line look significantly worse than they actually are and almost every quarterback measure shows he’s one of, if not the worst quarterback in the NFL, including ProFootballFocus, who grades him out at -49.9, the worst rating of any player last season. On top of that, they probably won’t get quite what they got last year from Maurice Jones Drew and their new receivers’ impact appears to be overrated right now. Defensively, they are not a powerhouse, even with better health this year, and will struggle to help a team, whose offense figures to score around 14 points per game, win games.
They figure to be one of the worst teams in the league. They were last year and though they won 5 games last year, not horrendous, they might not be as fortunate this year. I think they’ll win 6 games max and I would not be shocked if they won 2-3 games. They’re now the worst team in the division so while they went 3-3 in the division last year, I doubt they’ll do that again. Indianapolis is not a door mat anymore and they barely beat the Titans. If they go 1-5 or so in the division and 2-8 outside again, that’s 3-13.
Outside the division, they host Cincinnati, New England, Detroit, NY Jets, and Chicago, all superior teams. I wouldn’t be shocked if they didn’t win any of those games, even though they are at home. Cincinnati is their best chance to win one. They also go to Minnesota, Oakland, Green Bay, Buffalo, and Miami. Minnesota and Oakland are on their level, but those games are on the road and the other 3 games will be tough for them as those are superior teams and they’ll be on the road. They’ll win a couple of those games in surprise fashion, but I expect a very bad season for them. I have them at 2-14. Someone has to be that bad.
Projection: 2-14 4th in AFC South
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