Year: 2012

Alterraun Verner lining up in Cortland Finnegan’s old role in Titans OTAs

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The Titans’ biggest offseason loss was Cortland Finnegan, who signed a massive deal in St. Louis, but the Titans feel they have the in house talent to make up for the loss. Jason McCourty was an above average cornerback last year and will remain a starter this year. Meanwhile, Alterraun Verner is lining up as the starter opposite him in OTAs and, like Finnegan did before him, he’s moving inside to cover the slot in 3-cornerback sets.

There was some talk earlier this month that Tommie Campbell could be the starter opposite McCourty after defensive coordinator Jerry Gray called him the team’s 2nd best cornerback. However, now it appears that Campbell will be left competing to play in 3-cornerback sets with rookie 4th round pick Coty Sensabaugh and veteran Ryan Mouton, who is coming off a major injury. Whoever wins that job will line up outside, while Verner moves inside. That’s Verner’s old role from 2011.

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Jets’ Mark Sanchez “not really thinking” about Tim Tebow

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All the focus in New York with the Jets is around offseason acquisition Tim Tebow, but if you ask incumbent starter Mark Sanchez, he’ll tell you that he’s “not really thinking” about Tim Tebow, or at least that’s what he told ESPN New York. However, it’s possible to translate this quotation as Sanchez saying he “trying not to think about” Tebow. Sanchez obviously knows that he if plays like he did last year, he won’t keep his starting job. My prediction is that Sanchez starts a few games, struggles, and then Tebow takes over.

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Bengals’ AJ Green praises teammate Mohamed Sanu

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The Bengals are having as close to an open competition for the #2 receiver job as you possibly can get. Rookies Mohamed Sanu and Marvin Jones, inexperienced former undrafted free agent Armon Binns, and Patriots castoff Brandon Tate are all in the running. If you ask the man who they are competing to line up opposite, AJ Green, Mohamed Sanu is the favorite.

Green praised Sanu’s football speed and mentioned that he didn’t understand Sanu’s perceived lack of speed coming out of Rutgers, a reason why he fell to them in the 3rd round. A player the Bengals have compared to TJ Houshmanzadeh, I agree with Green’s scouting report of Sanu and the Cincinnati Enquirer’s prediction that he will win the starting job. The Bengals will make him earn it, however.

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Brian Urlacher in his last year with the Bears?

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Earlier this week it was reported that Urlacher would be healthy for Training Camp, but now Bears fans have a new concern with the face of their franchise. In an interview with NBCSports.com, Urlacher said that it’s “kind of exciting” when asked about his pending free agency after the season. Owed 7.5 million in the final year of his deal, Urlacher mentions that he has never been a free agent and that’s why he finds it exciting.

Urlacher is entering his 13th year in the league, all of which have been with the Bears, and, 36 next offseason, it’s unclear if Urlacher will get more on the open market than from the Bears, who would obviously love to keep their most recognizable player. I wouldn’t bet on him going anywhere, but rather that he’ll finish his career in a Bears uniform, whenever that times comes.

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Mike Kafka is “running away” with Eagles’ backup quarterback job

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A day after it was reported that Mike Kafka has noticeably improved arm strength in OTAs for the Eagles, it is being reported by the Courier-Post that Kafka is “running away” with the Eagles’ backup quarterback job. While Kafka is impressing, Edwards is struggling to make routine throws. There’s a reason he didn’t attempt a pass last season. If Kafka continues like this, Edwards will be cut sooner rather than later. Michael Vick is obviously guaranteed a roster spot, as is 3rd round rookie Nick Foles, who will start the season as the #3 quarterback behind Vick and likely Kafka.

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Mike Wallace, Steelers in talks on a long term deal

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Mike Wallace is no showing optional OTAs for the Steelers as he wants a new long term deal. Wallace, who has yet to sign his 1 year, 2.742 million restricted free agent tender, reportedly wants Calvin Johnson/Larry Fitzgerald money, which is somewhere around 15+ million per year over 7-8 years. Wallace couldn’t get that from the Steelers even if they wanted to give it to him because of their cap situation, but he and the Steelers are in least in talks on a long term deal. It’s unclear if one will get done. Right now, the Steelers hold all the leverage. Since he’s only had 3 years in the league, the Steelers can slash his salary to 577,000 if he doesn’t resign by June 15th.

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Raiders’ backup quarterback job is wide open

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When the Raiders signed Matt Leinart this offseason, most assumed he’d be the primary backup to Carson Palmer rather than Terrelle Pryor. Oakland offensive coordinator Greg Knapp was Leinart’s quarterback coach in Houston last year. However, according to the Contra Costa Times, the backup quarterback job is still wide open and that Pryor will have a chance to win the job if he impresses in Training Camp.

Pryor was the final draft pick ever by Al Davis and he was the prototypical Davis player: tall, strong, fast and with an attitude. However, after Davis passed and a new regime came in, Pryor lost his biggest supporter. The new regime and coaching staff may give Pryor every chance to win the backup job, but they won’t give him special treatment if he doesn’t perform well like they might have if Davis was still around. My money is still on Leinart.

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Chicago Bears Fantasy Football Projections

stevenlourie 2012 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2012 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Bears

QB Jay Cutler (Chicago)

Jay Cutler only played in 10 games last year and had 13 touchdowns, 7 interceptions, and 2319 yards. Over 16 games, that’s 3710 yards, 21 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. However, 3 good things happened for Cutler this offseason. They added his old #1 receiver Brandon Marshall to a receiving corps led in snaps played by Roy Williams, who is still unsigned. They also added Alshon Jeffery to that corps in the 2nd round.

Thirdly, Mike Martz is gone so Cutler will be moving to a scheme he fits better. Further helping him is that they brought his former quarterbacks coach from Denver. He should exceeded those extrapolated yards and touchdowns, but also those extrapolated interceptions, just because he has a career 3.4% interception percentage, roughly 17 every 500 throws.

Projection: 3820 passing yards, 24 passing touchdowns, 15 interceptions, 150 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown (239 pts standard/287 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

RB Matt Forte (Chicago)

7/26/12: Forte has signed and will not hold out. He was on pace for a career high 2145 yards from scrimmage before getting hurt last year through 11 games and through 8, he was actually on pace for the 2nd most yards from scrimmage of all times. Michael Bush will steal some goal line carries, but when has he not had a back stealing goal line carries from him? Other than that, Bush will be a pure backup who will be lucky to get 1 carry for each of Forte’s 2. He’s a sneaky good value in the end of the 1st, beginning of the 2nd round in a year where good running backs are tough to find.

Like Ray Rice, there’s the threat of Forte holding out into Training Camp and becoming rusty. The Bears have also added Michael Bush through free agency so Forte should go back down to the 238 carries or so he had in 2010, rather than the 271 he was on pace for last season. Still, Forte is a top-10 back coming off of injury.

Projection: 250 carries 1150 rushing yards 9 total touchdowns 60 catches 540 receiving yards (223 pts standard/283 pts PPR)

RB Michael Bush (Chicago)

Michael Bush is a backup and nothing else, just like Chester Taylor and Marion Barber before him. He’ll be lucky if he gets 1 carry to every one of Forte’s 2. This is all, of course, unless Forte holds out into the season or the Bears trade him. Stay tuned.

Projection: 110 carries 470 rushing yards 5 total touchdowns 25 catches 200 receiving yards (97 pts standard/122 pts PPR)

WR Brandon Marshall (Chicago)

From 2007-2008 in Denver with Jay Cutler, Marshall had 102 catches for 1325 yards and 7 touchdowns and 104 catches for 1265 yards and 6 touchdowns. From 2010-2011 in Miami with crap at quarterback, Marshall had 86 catches for 1014 yards and 3 touchdowns and 81 catches for 1214 yards and 6 touchdowns. Now that he won’t face league discipline after an alleged off the field incident, he’s a player with good upside and minimal downside.

Projection: 95 catches 1200 receiving yards 7 receiving touchdowns (162 pts standard/257 pts PPR)

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Green Bay Packers Fantasy Football Projections

stevenlourie 2012 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2012 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Packers

QB Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay)

In his last 27 games, including the playoffs, Rodgers has thrown for 72 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, and 7912 yards. Over 16 games, that’s 43 touchdowns, 7 interceptions, and 4689 yards. He’s also rushed for 1136 yards and 12 touchdowns in 4 years. Yeah, he’s the top fantasy quarterback. Your biggest concern with him if he’s your fantasy quarterback is that the Packers have such a good season that he doesn’t have to play weeks 16-17.

Projection: 4580 passing yards, 40 passing touchdowns, 8 interceptions, 300 rushing yards, 3 rushing touchdowns (375 pts standard, 455 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

RB Cedric Benson (Green Bay)

8/27/12: Cedric Benson is reportedly really impressing the Packers, to the point where James Starks might not even make the roster, in favor of a less injury prone, albeit less talented option like Brandon Saine. Benson will be the clear lead back on an explosive offense, albeit one that doesn’t run much, while Alex Green will serve solely as a change of pace back.

8/13/12: The Packers have signed Cedric Benson. He’ll get the opportunity to run behind a great offensive line and he’ll have plenty of room to run with the Packers’ passing game spreading things out. Heading into his age 30 season, he’s got little to no explosion, but he can run through holes and he should get the bulk of the Packers’ early down work as he was signed in response to James Starks’ disappointing Training Camp, preseason, and his recent turf toe injury. He’s also shown surprisingly durability with 956 touches over the past 3 seasons, 5th in the league over that time period behind only Ray Rice, Maurice Jones-Drew, Chris Johnson, and Steven Jackson. On top of all that, he’ll get the goal line work on one of the league’s most explosive offenses. He’s the Packers’ running back to own.

Projection: 160 carries 720 rushing yards 7 total touchdowns 20 catches 140 receiving yards (128 pts standard/148 pts PPR)

RB Alex Green (Green Bay)

8/13/12: Benson’s signing doesn’t hurt Green as much as it did Starks, as Green is a different kind of back, a speed, change of pace, passing catching back. However, a more crowded backfield is never a good thing for a back and it looks like Green’s role will be almost purely 3rd down and change of pace unless there are injuries.

8/7/12: Alex Green is finally healthy and impressing in Training Camp. He’ll be a change of pace back to James Starks, but Starks is oft injured. Green has the ability to pass catch and break off long runs and is a major sleeper. The only issue with him is he’s never had more than 146 carries in a season either in college or in the NFL and he’s coming off a torn ACL.

Green was actually the Packers 3rd round pick in 2011, but he missed all of last season with a torn ACL, an injury he’s not 100% recovered from, and 2011 undrafted free agent Brandon Saine is listed above him on the depth chart. Green’s specialty is catching the football, something he’ll have a lot of opportunities to do on Green Bay’s explosive offense, but he’ll probably only see the field on 3rd downs in a specialized role.

Projection: 100 carries 470 rushing yards 4 total touchdowns 26 catches 210 receiving yards (92 pts standard/118 pts PPR)

WR Greg Jennings (Green Bay)

Greg Jennings managed 67 catches for 949 yards and 9 touchdowns last year in 13 games, good for 82 catches for 1168 yards and 11 touchdowns. If he stays healthy for 16 games this year, something he had done in the 3 previous years, he should not only match those numbers, but surpass them. His 14.2 YPC last year was way lower than average and if he does catch a career high 82 balls this year, definitely a possibility the way Aaron Rodgers is playing, he should have a career high in yards as well.

Projection: 82 catches 1310 receiving yards 11 receiving touchdowns (197 pts standard/279 pts PPR)

WR Jordy Nelson (Green Bay)

In 13 games with Greg Jennings healthy last year, Nelson had 51 catches for 957 yards and 10 touchdowns. Over 16 games, that’s 63 catches for 1178 yards and 12 touchdowns, but that’s assuming you think he can keep up 18.6 YPC. For someone with a career 15.1 YPC even with last year factored in, that seems a little crazy.

The stats didn’t show it last year, but Jennings is Rodgers’ favorite target, not Nelson. In the 13 games they played together, Jennings was targeted 96 times, Nelson 58 times. Their receiving stats should reflect that this season barring injuries. That being said, Nelson is still talented enough to go over 1000 yards with Rodgers throwing him the ball.

Projection: 63 catches 1030 receiving yards 12 receiving touchdowns (175 pts standard/238 pts PPR)

TE Jermichael Finley (Green Bay)

Is this the year Jermichael Finley finally puts it all together? He’s definitely flashed at times, including 21 catches for 301 yards and a score in 4 games in 2010, and a strong end to the 2009 season. However, he’s very inconsistent. All that being said, if he just cuts his drops in half (12 to 6) he’ll have a major improvement on 2011, when he caught 55 passes for 767 yards and 8 touchdowns (not too shabby). There’s definitely plenty of upside here.

Projection: 63 catches 880 receiving yards 8 receiving touchdowns (136 pts standard/199 pts PPR)

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Philadelphia Eagles Fantasy Football Projections

stevenlourie 2012 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2012 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Eagles

QB Michael Vick (Philadelphia)

I’m projecting a down year across the board for Vick once again. He proved last year that his performance against Washington in 2010 was a fluke. I expect him to regress back to close to typical Atlanta passing stats, where he never went over 3000 yards passing, only once threw more than 16 touchdowns and averaged 13 interceptions per game from 2004-2006. He’ll be slightly better because of Andy Reid’s offense and a great receiving corps.

He’s also a year older, which won’t help him, especially as a runner. Legs are normally the first thing to go on an athlete. And if he stops being as big of a threat to run, he becomes easier to defend as a passer. And this is before I mention all the injuries he suffers yearly. Basically, I don’t see him aging well and I wouldn’t recommend him as a fantasy starter.

Projection: 3150 passing yards, 17 passing touchdowns, 13 interceptions, 520 rushing yards, 3 rushing touchdowns (238 pts standard/272 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

RB LeSean McCoy (Philadelphia)

Andy Reid openly admitted he overused McCoy last season as the 208 pound speedster had a career high 321 touches. He shouldn’t have as many this year, but there is some talk that Reid was smokescreening by saying he’d cut McCoy’s touches. With YPCs of 5.2 and 4.8 over the past two years, he should still have a bunch of rushing yards either way.

He won’t score 20 times again, even without a decrease in touches. I don’t expect Michael Vick to rush for just 1 touchdown again, which will take a few touchdowns away from McCoy, who managed just 9 in 2010. Still, with his pass catching ability, his high YPC, and the explosive offense he plays on, he is once again a top-3 fantasy back.

Projection: 260 carries 1300 rushing yards 15 total touchdowns 60 catches 450 receiving yards (265 pts standard/325 pts PPR)

WR Jeremy Maclin (Philadelphia)

Maclin was on his way to a career high season last year before getting hurt and still managed 63 catches for 859 yards and 5 touchdowns in 13 games. Over 16 games, that’s 78 catches for 1057 yards and 6 touchdowns. Now fully healthy (something he wasn’t last year even when he played) on what should be an overall improved Philadelphia offense, he could match or exceed those numbers this season.

Projection: 79 catches 1090 receiving yards 7 receiving touchdowns (149 pts standard/228 pts PPR)

WR DeSean Jackson (Philadelphia)

Jackson had 47 catches for 1056 yards and 6 touchdowns in 14 games in 2010 and 58 catches for 961 yards and 4 touchdowns in 15 games last season. A lot of his “struggles” last year can be attributed to him not having a long term contract, which he has now so he should have somewhat of a bounce back season this year, even if his “down season” last year wasn’t even that bad statistically. You do have to consider with Jackson that hasn’t played a full 16 game season since his rookie year.

Projection: 59 catches 1010 receiving yards 5 receiving touchdowns (131 pts standard/190 pts PPR)

TE Brent Celek (Philadelphia)

Last season, Celek caught 62 passes for 811 yards and 5 touchdowns, but you have to remember that he caught 42 passes for 511 yards and 4 touchdowns in Michael Vick’s 1st full season as a starter. With a healthy Maclin and a content DeSean Jackson, Vick will likely throw to his wideouts more than tight end Brent Celek, which should drop Celek’s production somewhere midway between 2010 and 2011.

Projection: 55 catches 690 receiving yards 4 receiving touchdowns (93 pts standard/148 pts PPR)

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