Year: 2012

The Final Quarter of the NFL Season

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 14 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 14 NFL Power Rankings

The NFL is a league filled with parity. Every year, there are certain examples of this parity that happens almost without fail. With 4 weeks left in the NFL season, we can use these to figure out which teams, if history is any indication, will struggle down the stretch. Note: I’m doing this probably in lieu of detailed power rankings.

1. Every year in at least the last decade, a team has gone from 5 wins or fewer to the playoffs.

This is an easy one. The Colts, winners of 2 games last year, stand at 8-4 right now and in the weak AFC, they can pretty much clinch a playoff spot with 2 more wins. They have easy games against Tennessee and Kansas City, along with tougher games against Houston, in their final 4 games. They won’t need to pull any upsets to make the playoffs, and they might even be able to make the playoffs if they get upset once down the stretch, so there isn’t much we can learn from them. Washington, Tampa Bay, and Minnesota are candidates here and we can certainly have more than one of these teams make the playoffs, but Indianapolis should fulfill this “requirement.”

2. Every year in at least the last decade, with the exception of one, a team has gone from the playoffs to 5 wins or fewer.

With the exception of 2, each one of last year’s 12 playoff teams have already won 6 games or more, so that eliminates a good chunk of the candidates. New Orleans at 5-7 is technically still a candidate, but they’d have to lose out, which makes them a long shot. Even if they can’t beat Tampa Bay in New Orleans or go to New York and beat the Giants or beat the Cowboys in Dallas, I’d be stunned if they lost to the Panthers at home in the Superdome week 17.

That leaves Detroit. Detroit sits at 4-8 and could definitely go 1-3 down the stretch. They have very tough games against Green Bay, Atlanta, and Chicago, all of which they will be dogs in, and only a trip to Arizona offers them an opportunity to be favorites. They’re really our only option, so this teaches us to basically fade them as small or medium sized dogs against Green Bay, Atlanta, and Chicago because history suggests they won’t pull any of those 3 upsets. If they do, definitely fade them as favorites in Arizona, because Arizona just might pull that upset, again, if history is any indication.

3. Every year in at least the last decade, one team goes from out of the playoffs to a first round bye.

Really the only candidate here is the Bears. The AFC byes will almost definitely be two of Houston, New England, Baltimore, and Denver, all returning playoff teams. The Falcons, another returning playoff team, have the other bye locked up, which leaves that 2nd NFC bye as the one that will likely be taken by a non-playoff team from a year ago. The 49ers, are 8-3-1, hold the spot right now, a 4th returning playoff team, but the Bears are at 8-4 and if they can beat Green Bay in Chicago, a game in which they’ll probably be favored, they could definitely run the table and go 12-4. In that case, they would only need San Francisco to lose one of two very losable games in Seattle or New England, where they will probably be dogs, to take the 2nd bye.

Seattle is the other candidate. If they can beat San Francisco in Seattle, where they have already knocked down some of the tougher teams in the NFL this season (New England, Green Bay), they have a very good chance to run the table and get to 11-5, barring another snafu as road favorites in Buffalo. Their other two games at are home for Arizona and St. Louis and I would be stunned if they lost either of those. At 11-5, they’d still need some help getting into the playoffs, in the form of a Chicago loss and another San Francisco loss, but the possibility is still open. Potential suspensions to Brandon Browner and Richard Sherman could kill their chances though.

What does all this mean? Well, I don’t think I’m going to pick against the Bears as small or medium favorites the rest of the way and I certainly won’t pick against them as dogs. I think I’m taking them against Green Bay pretty much no matter what. I probably won’t pick against Seattle the rest of the way, just to be safe (though Browner’s and Sherman’s potential suspensions could really make me rethink that promise, as would the juicy possibility of getting Buffalo +3.5 at home for the Seahawks). I’ll also pick against San Francisco in both New England and Seattle.

4. Every year in at least the last decade, one team goes from a first round bye to out of the playoffs

Here’s another reason I like the Bears to satisfy situation #3. The 49ers, Patriots, and Ravens are all pretty much locked into a playoff spot. None of those teams has more than 3 losses. The Packers at 8-4 are the only candidate that still remotely has a chance of satisfying this one. They’d have to go 2-2 or worse to do so. Losing in Chicago would definitely not be a shock, but they’ll probably be favorites in their other 3 games.

I can’t see them losing at home to Tennessee, nor can I see them losing at home to Detroit, especially since doing so would put situation 2 at risk of not happening, so the only real possibility would be a week 17 road loss in Minnesota. Minnesota played them tough this week, so it is a possibility in Minneapolis, where they are 5-1 this year, especially since Percy Harvin will probably be back for that one.

Who would take the Packers’ playoff spot? Well, there’s a trio of 6-6 teams right now, Tampa Bay, Minnesota, and Dallas. Tampa Bay is the most talented of the bunch by far, but they’d have to win out and that would mean wins in New Orleans and Atlanta. A win in Atlanta would not be farfetched as that will be week 17 and the Falcons will almost definitely be resting starters then (they might clinch home field in the NFC by week 15) and I think they can win in New Orleans. Basically what this means is I’m going against the Packers against the Bears and Vikings the rest of the way and taking Tampa Bay as dogs and small or medium favorites the rest of the way.

5. Every year in the last 17 years, there have been 5 new playoff teams.

This is another reason I think the Packers will miss the playoffs. This has happened for 17 straight years. Right now, the Colts, Seahawks, and Bears look like locks to be 3 of those 5. If the Buccaneers can take the Packers’ spot, that’s 4, with the Packers joining the Saints, Lions, and either the Steelers or Bengals on the outside looking in. That leaves one spot.

The only plausible way this can happen for an 18th straight year is if the Redskins win the NFC East and someone takes the Packers’ spot. 6 of the 8 divisions in the NFL will definitely be won by the team that won it last year. The Steelers or Bengals, two returning playoff teams, are taking one of the two wild cards in the AFC. That only leaves 5 spots for new playoff teams and if this is going to happen for the 18th straight year, they will all have to be filled by new playoff teams, including the Giants’ spot atop the NFC East.

I know the Cowboys are right in that NFC East race as well, but I just think the Redskins are a much better team. After all, they smoked the Cowboys in Dallas on Thanksgiving. These two teams do play week 17 in Washington so I guess you can say that whichever teams win week 17 is the favorite between these two, but I think the Redskins will win that one and the division.

The Giants are a much better team in the first half of the season than the second. In the first 8 games of the season, they are 53-19 and in the 2nd half, they are 28-40. The Giants have tough games against New Orleans, Baltimore, and Atlanta left, before an easy week 17 game against the Eagles. That week 17 game is their only easy win and they’ll have to win at least 2 games I think to win this division. 8-8 won’t cut it.

The Redskins stand at 6-6 and have a much easier final quarter schedule, playing the Eagles and Browns in 2 of their next 3 games, sandwiched in between a winnable game at home against the Ravens and that week 17 matchup against the Cowboys. All the Redskins have to do is win the 3 games they’ll be favored in (Browns, Eagles, and Cowboys) and have the Giants win just the 2 games they’ll be favored in (Saints, Eagles) and the Redskins will win the division at 9-7, by virtue of the 2nd tiebreaker, divisional record (5-1 to Giants’ 4-2). Chalk wins the Redskins the division. So what does this mean for picking purposes, basically I’m going fade the Giants unless they’re big dogs down the stretch and I’m going to take the Redskins unless they’re big favorites. I would do the same for the Cowboys, but I don’t trust them.

Teams to bet

1. Chicago

2. Seattle

3. Washington

4. Tampa Bay

Teams to fade

1. Green Bay

2. NY Giants

3. San Francisco

4. Detroit

Final playoff predictions

NFC

1. Atlanta 14-2 (lose to Buccaneers week 17 with rested starters)

2. Chicago 12-4 (win out)

3. San Francisco 11-4-1 (lose in either New England or Seattle)

4. Washington 9-7 (lose to Ravens, win other 3)

5. Seattle 10-6 (lose to 49ers or in Buffalo)

6. Tampa Bay 10-6 (win out)

AFC

1. Houston 14-2

2. New England 13-3

3. Denver 13-3

4. Baltimore 12-4

5. Pittsburgh 10-6

6. Indianapolis 9-7

Just for mock draft/power rankings purposes, these would be my playoff predictions in that scenario.

AFC Wild Card

3. Broncos over 6. Colts

5. Steelers over 4. Ravens

NFC Wild Card

3. 49ers over 6. Buccaneers

4. Redskins over 5. Seahawks

AFC Divisional

1. Texans over Steelers

2. Patriots over Broncos

NFC Divisional

1. Falcons over 4. Redskins

3. 49ers over 2. Bears

AFC Championship

2. Patriots over 1. Texans

3. 49ers over 1. Falcons

Super Bowl

2. Patriots over 3. 49ers

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Reaction to the Jovan Belcher Murder/Suicide

stevenlourie Chiefs, News

As I’m sure you’ve already heard, Jovan Belcher, a starting middle linebacker on the Kansas City Chiefs, committed a murder/suicide this weekend, shocking the football world and changing many lives for the worse. I’m not here to talk about the specific incident. There’s nothing really to say that you haven’t heard a million times. What happened is a tragedy. I’ll say that and leave it at that.

I’m here, however, to talk about the public reaction to the incident and some things that have really been bugging me about it. The first is people remembering Belcher as a victim. Belcher is not a victim. Kasandra Perkins is a victim. Literally everyone else closely involved in the situation is a victim except Belcher. Kasandra Perkins was 22 years old and a new mother and now she’s dead. Their newborn daughter is 3 months old and now she has no parents.

The mother of Kasandra Perkins, who watched the incident happen, is a victim, as are the families of Kasandra Perkins and of Jovan Belcher and the people who knew them closely. Scott Pioli, Gary Gibbs, and Romeo Crennel are victims, as they had to watch Belcher kill himself in front of them. Belcher’s teammates, who have to deal with the loss of someone that was not just a teammate, but probably a friend to most of them, they are victims.

Jovan Belcher is no victim. He deserves no RIP. He is the only one in this situation who is not a victim. He’s not an innocent. He’s a killer and a murderer. People who commit murder/suicides are not remembered fondly generally and this situation should not be any different. If he had just committed murder and been arrested and thrown in jail for the rest of his life, he would not have been remembered fondly and this situation should not be any different. The fact that Belcher went to the Chiefs’ facility, of all places, after committing murder to finish the 2nd half of the murder/suicide makes it even worse. By doing that, he was endangering more people’s lives and forcing those who cared about him to watch as he ended his own life, leaving them with undoubtedly painful memories for life.

All of my sympathies go out to the real victims in this situation, but I don’t have any left for a man who would kill the mother of his child in front of their newborn and her mother, go to his place of work with a gun and finish the murder/suicide in front of friends, coaches, and teammates, and leave his 3 month old daughter without parents. Kevin Clancy (KFC), actually wrote about this situation better than anyone I read this weekend, ironic coming from a self proclaimed smut humor site such as Barstool Sports (huge fan, by the way), but KFC did a great job of summing up my exact feelings on the situation. That can be read here.

You can say he was mentally ill and that’s why he deserves sympathy, but isn’t everyone who commits murder mentally ill? Don’t you have to be? There’s no excuse for what he did. Because of this, I’m very, very glad that the Chiefs chose to take a moment of silence before the game in honor of victims of domestic violence, not in memory of a murderer, but there are still too many people forgetting who the real victims are. If you’re interested, there will be a fund for the orphaned daughter opened early this week, as far as I know. There’s no way to donate yet, but as soon as I know how, I’ll tweet it out (@stevenlourie).

The second thing I have an issue with is people saying this game shouldn’t have been played. These people fall into two groups of people, people who literally have their facts wrong and people who think the Chiefs should not be allowed to make their own decisions in how they grieve. I don’t have too much of an issue with the first group of people, people who think the “greedy rich” National Football League MADE them play the game today, unless of course these people are like Michael Silver, who get paid to know things like this and report the facts accurately.

The NFL did not make the Chiefs play this game. At the very least, if they had objected, I’m sure the NFL would not have forced them to play the game. But what was generally reported by (almost) everyone is that the NFL talked with Romeo Crennel, Scott Pioli, the coaches, and the team captains and they decided to continue to play the game as scheduled. Romeo Crennel even said as much in his very well said post-game conference, saying “we’re football players and football coaches and that’s what we do. We play on Sunday.”

That’s why I have an issue with these people thinking this game shouldn’t have been played. If the Chiefs wanted to play the game, let them play. Who are they to tell them how to grieve? They wanted to play football. Very few people out there know what they’re going through and even those very few who do have no right to tell them how to deal with the situation, as I’m sure anyone who has gone through this situation will tell you.

It would have been a major slap in the face to them, the definition of kicking them when they’re down, for the NFL to force them not to play, as some are suggesting should have happened. That insinuates that these grown men are not able to make their own decisions. They are and I have no objection to the one they made.

Do I understand it? Maybe not, but do I have to? Absolutely not. I certainly have no clue how they held it all together and won their 2nd football game of the season today, but I’m not shocked that happened either. This is an emotional situation that I have absolutely no understanding of and I’m definitely in the vast majority there. I’m not going to pretend like I do and that I know better than them. Also, and I can’t confirm this, but it sounds like at least half of the proceeds from the game will go to the fund for the orphaned daughter and to benefit victims of domestic violence, so that’s obviously good.

One of the people who wrote that this game should not go on was Jason Whitlock, a writer for the Kansas City Star and Fox Sports, who I have actually complimented on this site in the past for his article about Roger Goodell’s hypocrisy, forcing the league to play games on Thursday, while simultaneously pretending to care about concussions and injuries. Whitlock actually says in his article about Belcher, “it shouldn’t be their [the Chiefs’] decision. Roger Goodell should’ve made this call,” which absolutely infuriated me. Let them make their own decision.

Whitlock also got into gun control in this article, which leads me to the next thing that really pissed me off: Bob Costas. I hate Bob Costas. I always have. Many people do. The man is incredibly pretentious and insufferable. He always talks as if he is holier than thou and he has the uncanny ability to simultaneously speak from a soapbox while clearly reading off a teleprompter. He adds absolutely nothing to the Sunday Night Football experience and he frequently takes away from it. I’m not even sure he likes football. I wish he was somewhere else because that’s where it feels like he belongs. I’m sure he has a purpose somewhere, but this isn’t it. I make fun of a lot of football commentators, but Costas is the only one I legitimately cannot stand.

However, this week set me over the edge. It wasn’t even the stuff about gun control at first, which has so many second amendment defenders incredibly angry. About 30 seconds into his lecture, I tweeted “Fuck you Bob Costas, you are not fit to talk about the Jovan Belcher situation, go back to sniffing your own farts.” I was really glad this was one of my most retweeted tweets ever because it showed me that people agreed with me. The video can be watched in its entirety here.

That was before he got into gun control. I was just incredibly angry that he looked legitimately happy that this tragic incident happened because it gave him an opportunity to get on his soap box again. He spoke pompously and was clearly fighting to hold back smiles and pure jubilation. He made fun of an old cliché that things like this always help us put things in perspective, by saying that they only put things in perspective long enough until we need another incident to help us put it back into perspective.

He went on to continue with a very arrogant “please” (this is where I lost it actually, he might have well as have “bitch please,” it was that arrogant) and then said “those who need tragedies to continually recalibrate their sense of proportion about sports would seem to have little hope of ever truly achieving perspective,” basically just destroying everyone who has ever agreed with or said what I find to be a very appropriate cliché. And he’s so holier than thou and so much better than people who say that. And he sounded generally excited that this happened so he could point it out. That’s what set me off. He used this tragedy to toot his own horn and talk down to a large portion of people who didn’t do anything wrong. Fuck you.

And then he made a not so smooth transition into gun control, citing Jason Whitlock’s article as some “real perspective.” I say citing, but I pretty much mean that he read the whole thing to us word for word. I’m not even going to tell you where I stand on gun control. That wouldn’t make me any better than him. That’s exactly the point. This is completely the wrong environment for that conversation.

We didn’t tune in to hear about Bob Costas’ political views or anyone’s political views. We tuned in to watch football and hear about stories that relate to football. Bob Costas’ 2nd amendment views were irrelevant to the discussion about Belcher, as are Whitlock’s, but he felt they were so important that we all had to hear them. And even worse, he seemed happy that this tragedy happened so he could promote his political agenda. Again, fuck you.

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San Francisco 49ers at St. Louis Rams: Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 13 NFL Picks, 49ers, Rams

San Francisco 49ers (8-3) at St. Louis Rams (4-7)

Colin Kaepernick is now officially quarterback of the 49ers and it’s definitely the right move. I don’t think the 49ers ever really scared anyone with Alex Smith under center. He wasn’t why they were winning. Kaepernick gives this team such a higher upside. He allows them to use the whole playbook with his running ability and big arm and he hasn’t seemed fazed by the mental part of running such a complex offense, which is key. He also makes their running game even better because defenses have to respect the deep ball and Kaepernick’s own running ability.

They’ve looked so much better since he’s been the starter, blowing out Chicago and then beating the Saints in New Orleans, a huge win in a tough place to play against a team that actually knew he was coming for the first time in his career. Neither St. Louis nor Chicago really game planned for him, most likely. Smith got hurt against St. Louis and there was no way for them to know that Kaepernick would be coming into the game, while Chicago probably thought, along with the rest of us, that Smith would start against them until he was surprisingly ruled out Monday morning for a Monday Night Football game.

This week, Kaepernick takes the show to St. Louis. St. Louis is coming off a win as divisional road dogs and they are now home dogs, a situation teams are 28-14 ATS in since 1989. However, San Francisco is road favorites after winning as road favorites, a situation teams are 50-30 ATS in since 2002. We’re also getting significant line value with the 49ers, who have the momentum as well, since switching to the superior quarterback.

Using the net points per drive method of computing real line, this line should actually be San Francisco -12.5. San Francisco ranks 2nd in net points per drive, 1st in DVOA, and 2nd in weighted DVOA and with Kaepernick under center, they’re easily one of the top-2 teams in the NFL. St. Louis, meanwhile, is 24th in net points per drive, 21st in DVOA and 20th in weighted DVOA.

That 12.5 number was calculated by taking the difference between San Francisco’s net points per drive and St. Louis’ net points per drive, multiplying by 11 (the amount of drives per game on average) and adding 3 to St. Louis’ side for home field advantage. Like with New England and Houston, it’s not a big play because the public loves the favorite here and the public always loses money in the long run, but San Francisco should be the right side here.

Public lean: San Francisco (80% range)

Sharps lean: SF 22 STL 8

Final update: Very interestingly, the sharps all really like San Francisco, Houston, and New England as touchdown favorites inside the division. Those might be the top-3 teams in the NFL, so it makes sense and the fact that the sharps love them kind of negates the heavy public leans. I don’t want to go higher than 3 on any of them because, on principle, I rarely make big plays on lines higher than a touchdown (what happened between San Francisco and Seattle earlier this year is a perfect example of why), but I can up this one and the Houston one to 2 units. New England is already there.

San Francisco 49ers 27 St. Louis Rams 13

Pick against spread: San Francisco -7.5 (-110) 2 units

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Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans: Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 13 NFL Picks, Texans, Titans

Houston Texans (10-1) at Tennessee Titans (4-7)

Tennessee may be 4-7, which isn’t a terrible record, but they are a terrible team. Of their 7 losses, 5 have come by 21 or more points and only one of their wins came by more than a field goal. Because of this, they are -97 in points differential. Only Philadelphia, Oakland, Jacksonville, and Kansas City are worse. Going off of this, they rank 30th in net points per drive, 29th in DVOA, and 29th in weighted DVOA. They are a team just as bad as the Eagles, Raiders, Chiefs, and Jaguars. In fact, last week they lost to the Jaguars even though they had a trend that was 22-3 ATS since 2002 on their side and the Jaguars had one that was 18-45 ATS since 2002 on their side. They’re terrible.

The Texans, meanwhile, are one of the better teams in the NFL. They rank 3rd in net points per drive and 8th in DVOA and weighted DVOA. If we use the net points per drive method of computing line value, which takes the difference between the two teams’ net points per drives and multiplies by 11 (the average amount of drives per game) and adds 3 points either way for homefield, we get that Houston should actually be -14 point favorites here on the road.

Now, the difference between where these two teams rank in DVOA is slightly smaller than the difference between where these two teams rank in net points per drive, which matters because DVOA is net points per drive based, but takes into account other things like strength of schedule. However, it’s not enough to make up for the fact that we’re getting 7 points of line value with the Texans. Besides, after going to overtime with 2 inferior teams, I think the Texans are due for a big win. Remember when they played the Jets close as double digit favorites and then lost at home to the Packers? The next week they blasted Baltimore, who isn’t nearly as bad as Tennessee.

There are 3 trends in Tennessee’s favor. Home dogs off a loss as road favorites are 49-36 ATS since 1989, 11-6 ATS if both games are divisional. As I mentioned, the Titans lost in Jacksonville last week as road favorites. Meanwhile, teams are 27-46 ATS before being dogs on Monday Night football since 2008. The Texans go to New England for a Monday Night game next week and might overlook these crappy Titans for that game. Besides, their last 3 games are against Minnesota and Indianapolis twice, so this is their last easy game. Meanwhile, road favorites of 7 or more are 8-23 ATS before being dogs since 2002.

This isn’t a good spot for the Texans. They are also a very, very heavy public lean, which is always a warning flag. The public always loses money in the long run, so I like to fade the public as often as I can. The odds makers know what they’re doing, so it’s not a bad idea to want to be on their side as often as possible. However, we’re getting so much line value with the Texans and they have every reason to be focused after two near losses to inferior opponents. They should be the right side.

Public lean: Houston (90% range)

Sharps lean: HOU 23 TEN 5

Final update: Very interestingly, the sharps all really like San Francisco, Houston, and New England as touchdown favorites inside the division. Those might be the top-3 teams in the NFL, so it makes sense and the fact that the sharps love them kind of negates the heavy public leans. I don’t want to go higher than 3 on any of them because, on principle, I rarely make big plays on lines higher than a touchdown (what happened between San Francisco and Seattle earlier this year is a perfect example of why), but I can up this one and the San Francisco one to 2 units. New England is already there.

Houston Texans 27 Tennessee Titans 17

Pick against spread: Houston -7 (-110) 2 units

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Arizona Cardinals at New York Jets: Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 13 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Jets

Arizona Cardinals (4-7) at New York Jets (4-7)

I’ve started using net points per drive to compute real line. It makes sense. Net points per drive measures how much you outscore opponents by on a given drive and if you take the difference between the two team’s net points per drive and you multiply that by the average number of drives per game, 11, and add 3 points either way for home field, you can get a pretty good estimate of what the line should look like.

There are other things to consider, like strength of schedule, which is why I like to look at the DVOAs, which are net points per drive based, but take into account strength of schedule, among other things. Trends and other human element type things are also very important, but net points per drive is a good starting point.

The Jets rank 27th in the league in net points per drive at -0.64, while the Cardinals rank 21st at -0.19. If you take the difference and multiply by 11 and add 3 points to the Jets side for home field advantage, you get that Arizona should be favored here by a point. However, here’s where you need to take other stuff into account. Arizona is 22nd in DVOA, while the Jets are 26th, which closes the gap some.

The Cardinals have also lost 7 straight and are on their 3rd and worst quarterback of the season. They were actually decent when Kevin Kolb was their quarterback, but then John Skelton came in when he got hurt and he was terrible, getting benched for 6th round rookie Ryan Lindley, who is one of the worst quarterbacks I’ve ever seen at the NFL level, even worse than Skelton.

At San Diego State, he never completed more than 57% of his passes in a season against weak competition. He’s got the tools, but I don’t know how he ever could have been considered to potentially be a starting quarterback in the NFL. Against Atlanta after taking over for Skelton, he went 9 of 20 for 64 yards and then against St. Louis, he went 31 of 52 for 312 yards, but with 4 interceptions to no touchdowns and his interceptions were horrible, if you watch the replays, with two going for touchdowns.

The Cardinals also suffered a serious injury on the offensive line, losing center Lyle Sendlein, who was really their only competent offensive lineman. About Sendlein before the season, left guard Daryn Colledge said, “he would be the worst one [to lose] probably on the whole football team. He is the key cog, especially for this offensive line. He is the captain and he is our guy,” before saying the “wheels might come off” without him.

I think that’s a pretty accurate assessment and if you can believe it, this offensive line can actually get worse. Right now, they have the league’s worst pass blocking efficiency rating and rank dead last in run blocking. The only reason they aren’t starting 3 players who rank dead last at their respective positions on ProFootballFocus is because they benched left tackle D’Anthony Baptiste for 7th round rookie Nate Potter, who hasn’t been much better. Potter starting makes 2 rookies starting for them, as right tackle Bobby Massie is a 4th round rookie. And Sendlein’s loss makes them worse.

The Cardinals are also in a bad spot trends wise. They are non-conference road dogs before being divisional road dogs. Teams are a ridiculous 11-30 ATS in this spot since 2002. They go to Seattle next week. They also have to travel across the country for a 1 PM ET start on the East Coast as a West Coast team, which is normally very tough for a team, though the Cardinals have strangely had success doing this over the past couple years, upsetting the Patriots and Eagles in major upset fashion and almost doing the same to the Ravens.

The Jets, meanwhile, are actually in a good spot after being blown out by the Patriots last week. They’ve had 10 days to rest and teams are 117-97 ATS on a Sunday after a Thursday Night game since 1989. Teams tend to do well after losses by 30 or more, going 83-55 ATS in this spot since 2002, including 27-18 ATS when the previous game was divisional. Teams tend to be undervalued, overlooked, and embarrassed coming off a blowout loss and if history is any indication, the Jets will definitely play well in this spot.

The Jets always seem to be at their best when they’re at their lowest point, especially this season. Remember when neither their 1st nor 2nd team offense scored a touchdown all preseason and they were the laughing stock of the football world and then week 1 they crushed the Bills? Remember when they got shut out by the 49ers and then covered in 3 straight weeks? Remember when they were 3-6, having lost 2 straight by 21+ and they had the whole “someone in the locker room called Tim Tebow terrible” controversy, and then they upset the Rams in St. Louis?

This is a similar situation. All they’ve heard all week is about how much they suck and about how Mark Sanchez ran into a butt. I think they bounce back in a similar fashion. It’s not a big play on the Jets, but they should be the right side. I just really hate taking the Jets as 5 point favorites over anyone. This is dangerously close to being six and six territory (teams who finished 6-10 or worse are 23-64 ATS since 2002 as 6 point favorites or more). I don’t understand how anyone can make a big play on this game. It’s either Jets -5 or Ryan Lindley? PUKE.

Public lean: NY Jets (60% range)

Sharps lean: NYJ 12 ARZ 4

Final update: No change. The Jets are at -6 in some places in which case I would take the Cardinals for a unit on principle because of the six and six rule, but I can’t bet heavily on either side. That would be nuts.

New York Jets 16 Arizona Cardinals 9

Pick against spread: NY Jets -4.5 (-110) 1 unit

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Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers: Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 13 NFL Picks, Packers, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (6-5) at Green Bay Packers (7-4)

Aaron Rodgers is normally deadly off a loss, going 14-9 ATS in that situation in his career, including 10-4 ATS since 2009, which excludes 2008, his first year as a starter. However, as favorites of a touchdown or more, he’s just 4-3 ATS in that situation in his career. Besides, I still think the Packers are an overrated bunch. They’re not the same team as they were last year. The best they can hope to be is a team like in 2010, when they got hot at the right time, but they’re not the dominant regular season team they were last year, which is kind of what this spread suggests.

The biggest reason why is injuries. Already missing stud middle linebacker Desmond Bishop and replacement DJ Smith for the season, the Packers have also put starting right tackle Bryan Bulaga and starting rush linebacker Nick Perry on injured reserve recently. Greg Jennings returns for this one, but in limited fashion and he won’t fix their biggest flaws, which are the defense, offensive line, and running game. Defensively, key players Charles Woodson and Clay Matthews have already been ruled out for this one.

In a way, this injury situation is worse than it was in 2010. In 2010, the sheer volume of injuries they had was ridiculous, but they were able to keep key players like Jennings, Matthews, and Woodson healthy all year. They never lost a player as talented and important as anyone in that trio. Matthews’ injury has been the key one since that’s the most recent one. Without him and Perry, they’re getting no pressure on the quarterback and that should continue this week. Those are their starting rush linebackers and their defensive line is once again getting minimal pressure on the quarterback. They rank 29th in the league in pass rush efficiency (sacks + .75(hits) + .75(hurries)/pass rush snaps) and that includes games that Matthews and Perry played.

They were able to rank 2nd in opponent’s scoring in 2010 despite injuries because Matthews, Woodson, and Bishop stayed healthy and because BJ Raji, Cullen Jenkins, Nick Collins, and Tramon Williams all played at a Pro-Bowl level. Jenkins left as a free agent and wasn’t really replaced. Collins had to retire because of injuries. Raji is having a 2nd straight down year. Only Williams is playing close to the level he was playing at in 2010. They’ve added a couple nice young players to the mix like Casey Hayward, but this is nowhere near the defense it was in 2010 so the situations aren’t comparable. They’re not as good as they were in 2010 and they’re certainly not as good as they were last year in the regular season.

Last year, they didn’t exactly play great defense either, but they were able to make up for it with a combination of an incredible turnover differential and one of the best offensive outputs of all time. After going +24 in turnovers last year and forcing 38 takeaways, this year they are just +5 with 16 takeaways through 11 games. Aaron Rodgers, maybe not so unsurprisingly, has been unable to match his record levels of production from a year ago, thanks to injuries on offense and no running game.

After scoring 35.0 points per game last year, they are at just 24.8 per game this year, thanks to injuries to receivers, most notably Jennings, as well as struggles on the ground and on the offensive line, which have only gotten worse with Bulaga out. That might still seem like a lot of points, and it is, 13th in the NFL, but compared to last year and with the team still having issues defensively, it’s enough to knock them out of the ranks as an elite team. They’re not bad at all. I just think they’re overrated.

The numbers back me up. This team is just 15th in net points per drive, though they are 6th in DVOA and weighted DVOA and none of those numbers take into account that their injury situation has gotten worse. Minnesota, meanwhile, is 19th in net points per drive, 17th in DVOA and 18th in weighted DVOA. Using net points per drive to compute real line, this line should be Green Bay -5.5, instead of -7.5, which is a huge deal because -6 and -7 are both key numbers. The fact that Green Bay is better in DVOA than net points per drive nullifies some of that because DVOA is net points per drive based, but takes into account other things like strength of schedule, but it doesn’t take into account current injury situations, so I think we’re still getting line value with the Vikings.

Minnesota is missing Percy Harvin for this one, but Christian Ponder did have a good game against Detroit without him, before face planting against Chicago. He’s an inconsistent rookie quarterback who was heavily reliant on Harvin before he got hurt, so that makes sense, but Green Bay’s pass defense is closer to Detroit’s than Chicago’s, so Ponder might be able to have a bounce back game. The Vikings are also in a good spot as road dogs off a road loss. Since 2008, teams are 83-47 ATS in that spot. Meanwhile, divisional favorites of a more than a touchdown are 2-8 ATS this season. It’s not a huge play on the Vikings, but they should be able to keep this one within a touchdown.

Public lean: Green Bay (50% range)

Sharps lean: MIN 15 GB 3

Final update: That’s a pretty strong sharps lean on Minnesota. This was one of the games I was torn on going to 3 units on. I think I’ll up it to 3.

Green Bay Packers 27 Minnesota Vikings 23

Pick against spread: Minnesota +7.5 (-110) 3 units

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Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears: Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 13 NFL Picks, Bears, Seahawks

Seattle Seahawks (6-5) at Chicago Bears (8-3)

The Seahawks were 6-4 coming out of their bye last week and looked like they were in prime position to take one of the NFC’s two Wild Card spots. However, they lost on the road to the Dolphins and now all of a sudden, the sky is falling for this team. Everyone’s wondering what happened to them. I’ll tell you what happened to them. The same thing that happened to them when they went to Arizona, St. Louis, and Detroit and lost to an inferior team: they went on the road.

Since the start of the 2005 season, no team has a bigger home/road differential ATS wise than the Seattle Seahawks. They are 22-43 ATS on the road and 45-20 ATS at home. This year, that’s been especially true as they are 5-0 ATS at home (with 3 straight up wins as home dogs) and 1-5 ATS on the road (with 3 straight up losses as road favorites). At home, they outscore opponents by 6 points per game over that stretch and they get outscored by an average of 6 points per game on the road. The league average is 3 points at home and on the road, which is why 3 points are added either way when computing the line.

The only reason I didn’t take Miami for a big play last week, as I did when they were in Arizona and St. Louis and to a lesser extent, in Detroit, was because the Seahawks were coming off a bye and as road favorites, they had a trend that had hit 75% of the time since 2002 on their side. I still took Miami for a small play and even that powerful trend couldn’t combat the Seahawks’ road woes.

The Seahawks are on the road here, but in different circumstances. They are now road dogs after losing on the road. They are 4-3 ATS in this spot since 2005, which isn’t strong, but it’s definitely worth noting and it makes sense as teams generally tend to cover as road dogs off a road loss, going 138-79 ATS since 2005 in that spot. It’s not a reason why the Seahawks will cover, but it doesn’t make them an automatic fade here on the road.

It is worth noting that the Seahawks already failed to cover once this season in a very similar spot, losing in Detroit on the road as dogs after losing the week prior in San Francisco. They were 2.5 point dogs in that situation and they are 3.5 point dogs here, which doesn’t make a ton of sense. Chicago is much better than 1 point better than the Lions.

Using the net points per drive method to compute line value, we get a real line of Chicago -5.5 as Chicago ranks 7th in net points per drive and Seattle ranks 11th. However, we do need to look at DVOA to make sure there are no discrepancies, as net yards per drive doesn’t take into account everything that DVOA (which is net yards per drive based) does. In DVOA, Seattle actually ranks 4th in regular and weighted, while Chicago ranks 5th in both, which does make this line make more sense, that is until you remember how horrible Seattle generally is on the road, especially this year, and more importantly how much better the Bears are with Jay Cutler healthy.

Jay Cutler might be the most undervalued player in the NFL. Excluding the Houston game, in which he got hurt before halftime, the Bears are actually 13-1 straight up in Jay Cutler’s last 14 starts with that one loss being a very excusable one in Green Bay on a short week. In the last 2 seasons, when he starts, again excluding that Houston game, the Bears are 15-4 and score 28.0 points per game. When he doesn’t, including that Houston game, they are 1-7 and average just 12.3 points per game.

That isn’t all him. For instance, Matt Forte missed a few of those games as well and Caleb Hanie, who started 5 of those games in his absence, is one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL. Still, it shows he has a huge value to this team. He doesn’t put up flashy stats and his body language can be off putting, but the numbers don’t lie. They don’t have a ton of offensive talent. Brandon Marshall is great, but they don’t have another receiver and their offensive line is atrocious. Cutler has done a great job of leading drives in spite of this and he is actually very tough to sack. Before Cutler got hurt, this team led the NFL in points differential and last week when he returned healthy, they blew out a solid Vikings team by 18.

It’s true they have yet to beat a truly good team this year, but they’ve only had one chance, that Green Bay game, with Cutler healthy for the full game. They’ve blown out several bad teams, leading the league with 6 double digit wins. They beat Indianapolis, Detroit, and Minnesota, solid teams, in impressive fashion and they should be able to beat the Seahawks here. There are some reasons to take Seattle and the 3.5 points, but I think Chicago wins straight up once again here and as long as this line is 4 or less, I have a hard time taking the Seahawks on the road against Cutler and the Bears.

Public action: Chicago (60% range)

Sharps lean: SEA 18 CHI 15

Final update: No change.

Chicago Bears 24 Seattle Seahawks 20

Pick against spread: Chicago -3.5 (-110) 1 unit

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Denver Broncos: Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 13 NFL Picks, Broncos, Buccaneers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-5) at Denver Broncos (8-3)

The Buccaneers lost last week, snapping a 4 game winning streak, but it was once again a close game. The Buccaneers are still 5-2 since the bye and they’ve really looked like a different team since then. Josh Freeman is 134 of 220 for 1971 yards, 16 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions in his last 6 games. He has a cannon for an arm, but he wasn’t using it last year, throwing 20 yards downfield or more on just 6.5% of his throws, by far least frequent in the NFL, despite being the 3rd most accurate deep ball thrower in the NFL. This year, with a reliable deep threat in Vincent Jackson, he’s going deep on 15.7% of his throws and, more importantly, he’s having a ton of success, going 23 of 55 for 932 yards, 5 touchdowns, and 1 interception.

Their makeshift offensive line is run blocking and pass protecting well. The Freeman to Vincent Jackson combo is deadly (47 catches for 959 yards and 7 touchdowns) and opening things up for Mike Williams and Doug Martin, who is running much better since the bye thanks to improved blocking and the defense fearing the pass. Defensively, as bad as their secondary is, they have a great front 7 led by the finally healthy Gerald McCoy and rookie of the year candidate Lavonte David.

Even before the bye, they were better than their record. They were 1-3, but all 3 losses were by a touchdown or less and all 3 were against quality opponents, the Giants, the Cowboys, and the Redskins. They have not lost a single game by more than a touchdown all year and on the flip side, they have 4 wins by double digits. Because of this, they are +56 in points differential and they are either 9-2 ATS, 8-2-1 ATS, or 7-2-2 ATS, depending on the line you had in the Tampa Bay/NY Giants game (either +7 or +7.5) and in the Tampa Bay/Atlanta game (either +1 or +1.5). On the road, they are either 4-0-1 or 5-0 ATS (Giants game).

Going off that points differential, they actually rank 10th in the NFL in net points per drive. The Broncos, meanwhile, rank 4th. If you take the difference between the Buccaneers’ (0.35) net points per drive and the Broncos’ (0.66) and multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per game) and add 3 points for home field advantage, you get that this line should be right around Denver -6.5, meaning that we’re getting line value with Tampa Bay, who should, at the very least, keep this within a touchdown once again and once again cover, as this line is right at that magic -7 point.

I say at the very least because I think the Buccaneers have a very good chance to win straight up. This game means different things for these two teams. The Buccaneers are dogs before being favorites and teams are 98-56 ATS in this spot over the last 2 seasons, including 42-20 ATS when both are non-divisional. They have no distractions on the horizon with the lowly non-divisional Eagles on their schedule next and this is a huge game to extend their season. They have to go to New Orleans, Atlanta, and Denver in their last 5 games and they have to win 2 to make the playoffs. I think it’s more likely they beat the Saints (inferior team to the Broncos) and the Falcons (week 17, they could be resting starters), but they could win here.

The Broncos, meanwhile, will go to Oakland and play the divisional Raiders on Thursday Night football next week. The Raiders are lowly as well, but because that’s a Thursday Night divisional game, it’s a different story. Since 1989, favorites are 25-37 ATS before a divisional Thursday game, 15-24 ATS before being favorites. Teams do tend to cover as non-conference favorites before being divisional favorites, as those teams are 52-33 ATS before being divisional favorites, but they’re 4-6 ATS before a Thursday night game. The Buccaneers are much more likely to be 100% focused for this one. It’s a significant play on the Buccaneers to at least keep this within 7.

Public lean: Denver (50% range)

Sharps lean: DEN 14 TB 5

Final update: No change.

Denver Broncos 31 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay +7 (-110) 3 units

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Carolina Panthers at Kansas City Chiefs: Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 13 NFL Picks, Chiefs, Panthers

Carolina Panthers (3-8) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-10)

Obviously, I can’t do this write up without mentioning the tragedy that happened Saturday Morning. Early Saturday morning, Chiefs’ starting middle linebacker Jovan Belcher murdered his girlfriend at their house and then came to the Chiefs’ practice facility and committed suicide in front of several teammates and coaches, including Head Coach Romeo Crennel and GM Scott Pioli.

Obviously, my sympathies go out to his murdered girlfriend (RIP) and their newborn baby, but it’s very, very hard for me to feel sympathetic for Belcher, who died a murderer and a man who destroyed a family and left his newborn baby orphaned. If Belcher had simply committed murder and gotten arrested and hauled off to jail for the rest of his life, we would feel no sympathy for him at all. He would be remembered as a murderer and a criminal and I don’t see why that should be any different now. Yes, it’s clear he was mentally ill, but don’t you have to be to kill someone?

Anyway, there’s simply no way to know how this will affect this game. I really don’t. I don’t even feel good talking about football in relation to this incident. I can’t imagine how anyone will feel playing football a day after this incident and that goes for both the Chiefs and the Panthers. They might not even play the game, though reports say that the Panthers have been told to continue with their travel plans as normal in expectation of a game being played.

Will the Chiefs come out the way the Colts did after Chuck Pagano left the team to undergo chemotherapy (I don’t feel good comparing Pagano and Belcher)? Will the Chiefs come out completely flat and looking like a team that just lost a teammate to a murder/suicide with members of the team and coaching staff watching? How will this affect the Panthers? I don’t have answers to these questions. I don’t think anyone does. I don’t think the players do. We don’t even know if there’s going to be a game.

My original pick was going to be the Chiefs for a unit. Teams tend to do well as road favorites after a win as road favorites, going 50-30 ATS since 2002, a situation the Panthers are in, but teams are 18-10 ATS in their 3rd straight home game as dogs, and 12-6 ATS off 2 losses, a situation the Chiefs are in. Teams are also 32-61 ATS as non-conference favorites before being divisional dogs since 2002 and the Panthers host the Falcons next week.

Non-conference road favorites are 2-8 ATS before being divisional home dogs since 2002, 3-16 ATS if we go back to 1989 to get a larger sample size. There’s no line value either way (real line is at Carolina -3), but the fact that Brady Quinn is now the Chiefs’ quarterback may give us some line value, as well as the fact that the Panthers rank 19th in DVOA and weighted DVOA, though just 25th in net points per drive, which is how I compute line value.

I really was just planning on going with the Chiefs because the public is pounding Carolina and the public always loses money in the long run and that 3-16 ATS trend is hard to ignore, but just for a very small play. I’m going to stick with that because I have even less of a clue now. If there was ever a time for a zero unit pick, this would be it and this game should be dead last in confidence pools. We don’t even know if this game is going to be played.

Public lean: Carolina (80% range)

Sharps lean: CAR 9 KC 2

Final update: Sharps didn’t have a clue before the Belcher shooting (picks are due by 2 PM ET on Saturday for LV Hilton, which is barely after the shooting) and I doubt that incident would have cleared things up for them. I still have no clue here.

And by the way, I’m perfectly fine with this game being played. The Redskins played after Sean Taylor’s death and it’s not like the NFL is forcing the Chiefs to play. The Chiefs decided to play because they want to play. Very few people know what they’re going through and even if you do, who are we to tell them how to grieve?

Carolina Panthers 17 Kansas City Chiefs 16

Pick against spread: Kansas City +3 (-110) 1 unit

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Cleveland Browns at Oakland Raiders: Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 13 NFL Picks, Browns, Raiders

Cleveland Browns (3-8) at Oakland Raiders (3-8)

The Raiders seem to have completely quit. They’ve lost 4 straight by a combined score of 169-79. Reports out of their practices aren’t pretty either as middle linebacker Rolando McClain, actually one of their better defensive players, has been suspended for 2 games for conduct detrimental to the team, reportedly that he yelled at 1st year Head Coach Dennis Allen. It was first reported that McClain had been waived as he posted on Facebook that he was no longer an Oakland Raider and that he was looking forward to playing for an “actual team,” but after the dust cleared it appears he is technically still on the roster.

I picked the Raiders to cover last week for a big play. It seemed reasonable. The Bengals were 3-9 ATS as touchdown favorites in the Marvin Lewis era and teams were 36-16 ATS since 2002 off back-to-back losses by 21 or more. Teams in that situation tend to be undervalued, embarrassed, and overlooked, but none of that matters if you’ve quit.

When the Raiders lost to the Bengals by 24, it was believe it or not just the 13th time since 1989 that a team had lost 3 straight by 21 or more. That’s how rarely teams get blown out by that much and how bad things have gotten in Oakland. For the record, teams off 3+ losses of 21 or more are 4-8 ATS, which makes sense since those seem to be teams who have quit. The rule of thumb, if a team has lost 2 straight by 21 or more, bet them, but if they don’t come through for you, definitely stay away from them in the next week.

The Browns, meanwhile, got a huge win last week against the Steelers, but they weren’t as impressive as the final score would suggest. They needed a fluky turnover total (8) by the Steelers, which was just the 13th time that’s happened since 1989, to even win by 6 against the Charlie Batch led Steelers who were in a bad spot sandwiched in between two huge games with the Ravens. That won’t happen again. Turnover differentials are incredibly inconsistent anyway.

That loss shifted this line 2.5 points from last week as it was a pick em and now Cleveland is favored by 2.5 on the road. However, that doesn’t mean the Browns are overrated or anything. They were underrated before last week. They haven’t gotten blown off the field by anyone this season and they have a very solid defense. Despite their record, they rank 22nd in net points per drive and 25th in DVOA and weighted DVOA. The Raiders, meanwhile, rank 31st in net points per drive, 31st in DVOA, and 32nd in weighted DVOA. The real line using the net points per drive method is Cleveland -5, so there’s still line value with the Browns in spite of the line movement.

That being said, it’d hard to take the Browns for a big play. They’re coming off such a huge win against the Steelers. Teams tend to struggle after beating the Steelers anyway, for some reasons, going 19-40 ATS in that situation since 2002. That’s not the case for any other team. You can only imagine how much bigger it is for the Browns, who had previously beaten the Steelers just twice in their last 23 matchups. They might be flat for a crappy Raiders team. However, the Raiders will definitely be flat since that seems to be their thing now. Besides, they may be looking forward to a Thursday Night game against Denver next week. It’s not a huge play at all, but Cleveland should be able to come into Oakland and beat a reeling Oakland team by at least 3.

Public lean: Cleveland (50% range)

Sharps lean: CLE 7 OAK 6

Final update: No surprise people are staying away from this game. The shitty Raiders or the Browns as road dogs (which they somehow are 6-1 ATS as since 2002)?

Cleveland Browns 24 Oakland Raiders 20

Pick against spread: Cleveland -2.5 (-110) 1 unit

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