Year: 2013

St. Louis Rams 2013 Needs

stevenlourie Rams

The Rams won 7 games in 2010 in Sam Bradford’s rookie year, but regressed and won just 2 in 2011 thanks to injuries. This year, they won 7 again (plus a tie), but there’s a lot more hope for the future. Their defense went from 26th in 2011 to 14th and they are still one of the youngest defenses in the NFL. In fact, the Rams came into this season as the NFL’s youngest overall roster.
They knocked off some quality opponents and hung close with a few others, beating Seattle, San Francisco, and Washington, tying the 49ers again, and came within a touchdown of beating the Seahawks in Seattle week 17. Their schedule was actually pretty brutal, as they played 9 games against teams who won 10 or more games, going 3-6 in those 9 games, which is respectable.

They won those 7 games in spite of injuries this time and it appears Sam Bradford took another step in his development. He didn’t post eye popping numbers or anything, but, unlike in 2011, the 3rd year quarterback was able to have success in spite of the loss of his left tackle Rodger Saffold and top receiver Danny Amendola for a significant period of time. In 2011, he was completely lost without them, but improved coaching, as well as improved maturity on Bradford’s part, allowed him to adapt.

The Rams need to continue to build around the former #1 overall pick and they have two 1st round picks in each of the next two years to do so. A lot of Rams fans might be kicking themselves for not drafting Robert Griffin and essentially trading away his draft rights, but it’s easy to say that now when we know Griffin is good. Unless you absolutely need a quarterback, like the Redskins did and the Rams didn’t, it’s always safer to take the extra picks. Both teams won that trade and the Rams have a bright future in part because of it.

Offensive Tackle

Building around Sam Bradford starts on the offensive line. When healthy, Rodger Saffold is a more than adequate left tackle, but he’s missed more than half of the team’s offensive snaps over the last 2 seasons. Swing tackle Wayne Hunter has to play at left tackle when Saffold is out and that’s not pretty. He’s due 3.95 million next season anyway and almost definitely won’t be brought back at that salary. Also possibly not back is right tackle Barry Richardson, who is better than Hunter, but only by default. He’s a free agent. They need at least one new tackle, a starter at right tackle, and while they may be able to get away with Richardson as a swing, they should look at other options because of how often Saffold is hurt.

Guard

Offensive tackle wasn’t the only issue on their offensive line. The Rams had 4 different players start at left guard this season, Rokevious Watkins, Quinn Ojinnaka, Shelley Smith, and Robert Turner. Turner closed out the season there and played the best of the bunch, but only by default. He played much better at center when Scott Wells was hurt and if he’s retained as a free agent this off-season, it should be as a reserve center, rather than a starting left guard. 2012 5th round pick Watkins might be seen as the 2013 starter now, but they shouldn’t write that in stone. Guards should be considered early in the 2013 NFL Draft.

Safety

The Rams played good defense, but the worst full time player on the unit was free safety Craig Dahl, who frequently missed tackles. The career journeyman is a free agent this off-season and the Rams should take this opportunity to find an upgrade. It’s already being reported that he won’t be welcomed back. With two first round picks, expect them to give safeties a look early.

Outside Linebacker

The Rams locked up middle linebacker James Laurinaitis last off-season and Jo-Lonn Dunbar surprisingly played well this season, though who knows if that will continue long term. They really need an upgrade at the 3rd linebacker spot regardless as one year rental Rocky McIntosh did not impress, even getting benched for Mario Haggan week 17, who wasn’t any better.

Wide Receiver

I don’t think the answer here is more youth and drafting another receiver. The Rams have used a 2nd, 3rd, and 4th round pick on a wide receiver over the last 2 drafts, taking Austin Pettis in the 3rd in 2011 and then Brian Quick and Chris Givens in the 2nd and 4th respectively last year. They need to wait on some of that talent to develop, rather than just adding more raw talent. Givens looked great for a 4th round rookie, actually leading the team in receiving, while Pettis has had his moments. Quick barely played as a rookie, but you can never write off a receiver after one year, especially one as athletic as Quick. They obviously need to re-sign Danny Amendola and adding another veteran to replace mediocre free agent Brandon Gibson makes sense, but the only way drafting another receiver makes sense is if it’s the best available player.

Tight End

Here’s where I think they could draft someone. Lance Kendricks was a 2nd round pick in 2011, but he hasn’t been the player they were expecting. He’s a product of the Steve Spagnuolo/Billy Devaney regime so Jeff Fisher/Les Snead won’t have any loyalty to him. They should at least bring in some competition because they don’t have anyone behind him on the depth chart who can catch passes.

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New Orleans Saints 2013 Needs

stevenlourie Saints

How valuable is Head Coach Sean Payton? Well, if you look just at records, you could say he’s worth 6 wins, as the Saints went from 13-3 in 2011 to 7-9 in 2012. However, Payton’s absence wasn’t the only reason for the decline. Drew Brees’ numbers were still great without Payton, not as good as they were in 2011, but it’s unrealistic to expect him to produce like that every year. He still completed 63.0% of his passes for an average of 7.7 YPA, 43 touchdowns, and 19 interceptions. Everyone remembers his 5 interception loss to the Falcons, but everyone is entitled to one bad game, especially on a short week against an opportunistic defense. This was still the NFL’s 3rd ranking scoring offense, scoring 28.8 points per game, only behind the Patriots and Broncos.

The issue was more the coaching on the other side of the field and you can’t really blame Payton’s absence for that. The reason the Saints went 7-9 despite their great offense was that their defense allowed almost exactly the same amount of points, allowing 28.4 per game, 31st in the NFL. Coming into the season, I had Steve Spagnuolo in the horrible Head Coach/great coordinator club, but he obviously lost his membership this year, as the Saints were horrible defensively in his first year with the team as defensive coordinator.

His scheme is predicated around getting pressure with 4 guys, something he’s always been able to do, both in New York with the Giants and in St. Louis with the Rams. When he can do that, he’s effective, but he wasn’t able to do that at all with the defensive line he had in New Orleans, nor was he able to coach those linemen up into better players.

The Saints once again had one of the least efficient pass rushes in the NFL, 29th in pass rush efficiency, and, sticking true to his scheme, he still refused to blitz, which is what former defensive coordinator Gregg Williams did at an NFL leading rate in 2011, with much better success. Unable to generate any pressure, their so so defensive backs were completely overmatched, allowing the highest YPA in the NFL. Their defensive line didn’t do a whole lot of good against the run either, as they also allowed the NFL’s highest YPC. Sean Payton returning in 2013 will help this team, but if Spagnuolo returns too, they could be in some trouble once again. They obviously need to make the defensive line a priority of this off-season.

Defensive End

You could also put defensive tackle first, but I think end is a more important position. Either way, the Saints need to overhaul their defensive line. Will Smith looks pretty done, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 2nd worst 4-3 defensive end this year. Owed 10 million in his age 32 season in 2013, he won’t be back unless he accepts a major pay cut and even then maybe not. The Saints need someone to replace just the sheer volume of snaps he played this year, 1007, 2nd on the line and 5th on the team. Hopefully this player will also make better use of them as well. A defensive end is a definite possibility with the 15th overall pick.

Defensive Tackle

If they don’t use their 15th pick on a defensive end, expect them to use it on a defensive tackle. This is a defensive line rich draft in the top half of the 1st round and the Saints need all the help they can get. Sedrick Ellis is a free agent this off-season and the 1st round pick bust is not expected to be welcomed back. He led the position in snaps played and like, at defensive end with Will Smith, they need a replacement who is going to make better use of those snaps.

Cornerback

Their defensive issues weren’t just on the defensive line. Starters Jabari Greer and Patrick Robinson were both inconsistent and while both will probably be given another shot as starters in 2013, because of all the organization has invested in them (a big contract and a 1st round pick respectively), they definitely need more depth. Corey White was horrible as the 3rd cornerback and the 5th round rookie never should have been put in that position anyway.

Safety

The Saints’ safeties also played horribly. Roman Harper and Malcolm Jenkins ranked next to last and dead last respectively among ProFootballFocus’ safeties this year, routinely blowing coverages and missing tackles. Like with their cornerbacks, they have a lot invested in them, giving Roman Harper a big deal 2 off-seasons ago and using a 1st round pick on Malcolm Jenkins in 2009, but they need some competition. Jenkins is heading into a contract year, while Harper should definitely be put on notice after two straight awful years. If this continues, he should definitely be cut next off-season, owed 6.15 million in 2014. I’d say cut him now, but it doesn’t sound like that will happen.

Outside Linebacker

The Saints made overhauling their linebacking corps a priority this off-season, giving significant contracts to Curtis Lofton and David Hawthorne, who both disappointed. The Saints will give them another shot in 2013, but they need an upgrade at the 3rd linebacker spot. Jonathan Vilma played there after his suspension, but he picked up where he left off in 2011, showing his age and playing poorly. Owed 5.9 million in his age 31 season in 2013, he’s not expected to be brought back and the Saints will need a new 3rd linebacker.

Offensive Tackle

Left tackle Jermon Bushrod is a free agent this off-season. The Saints should let him walk. He’s not worth the kind of money someone will probably pay him. Yes, he’s allowed just 10 sacks in the last 3 years, but that’s more on Drew Brees, who has one of the quickest releases in the NFL. In spite of the low sack number, he’s allowed 141 total hits and hurries over that 3 year stretch, most in the NFL, and committed an additional 20 penalties. They should be able to find a comparable replacement easily, maybe even from in house, but they could use this opportunity to find a long term upgrade as well.

Wide Receiver

Devery Henderson is a free agent. He was ProFootballFocus’ 2nd worst rated wide receiver last year and I don’t know if there was anyone less efficient. He caught just 22 passes for 316 yards and a touchdown on 44 targets, despite having one of the best in the game throwing to him, dropping 5 and having another 3 picked off.

That doesn’t even tell the whole story. Those 316 yards came on 454 pass snaps, good for a 0.70 yards per route run average. Among players with as many targets he had, only Early Doucet had a lower average and he had Arizona’s shit show at quarterback. Henderson had Drew Brees. Heading into his age 31 season with a history of injury issues, he shouldn’t be brought back. They might bring in another receiver for depth or opt to replace him in house with Joe Morgan, who was promising in limited action this year, or Nick Toon, a 2012 4th round pick who missed his entire rookie year because of injuries.

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2013 Needs

stevenlourie Buccaneers

This season must have felt like 4 different seasons for Buccaneers fans. They started 1-3, after losing their last 10 to finish 2011, and it looked like more of the same. However, after the bye, they ripped off wins in 5 of 6 games and looked like a potential playoff team. They lost a close one at home to Atlanta and then in Denver, but those were two of the best teams in the league so they still looked like they were in good position. That was until they lost at home to the lowly Eagles, and then got blown out by the Saints and Rams, to push their losing streak at 5. They finished out their season with an impressive win in Atlanta.

It’s no surprise they’re this inconsistent when their quarterback is this inconsistent. It wasn’t just this year. They went 3-13 in 2009, 10-6 in 2010, and then 4-12 last year as Josh Freeman posted 10/18, 25/6, and 16/22 touchdown to interception ratios in those 3 seasons respectively. This year, he started the year with a 5/4 TD/interception ratio in their first 4 games, then had a 16/3 ratio in their next 6, and then a 5/9 ratio on that 5 game losing streak, before having a decent game against Atlanta. In wins, he had a 97.6 QB rating, which is comparable to Tom Brady’s and Ben Roethlisberger’s. In losses, that rating was 71.4, which is comparable to Chad Henne and Mark Sanchez.

Overall, his stats are solid. His career quarterback rating of 79.8 is nothing special, but it’s not terrible either. But, it must be so maddeningly frustrating for Buccaneers fans to have no idea on a game to game basis what they’re going to get when their quarterback takes the field. It seems to be frustrating the organization as well. They’ve mentioned on several occasions that they will try to bring in some better competition for him this off-season and an upgrade over backup Dan Orlovsky. Josh Freeman is in a contract year in 2013, so it’s going to be a huge year for him. In 2014, he could be anything from a well-paid starting quarterback for the Buccaneers to a backup elsewhere.

Cornerback

Both of the Buccaneers’ week 1 starting cornerbacks got suspended this season. Aqib Talib’s suspension got him traded to New England, ahead of free agency this off-season, while Eric Wright’s voided his contract and gave the Buccaneers the option to cut him and get out of the reminder of his contract without penalty. He’s not worth the 30.75 million he’s owed over the next 4 seasons. It was a ridiculous contract to begin with and the Buccaneers got a lucky break when he voided it. He should be cut and he’s expected to be.

However, without Talib and Wright, the Buccaneers will need two new starting cornerbacks this off-season. They gave a bunch of young cornerbacks a shot down the stretch in their absence, including EJ Biggers, Leonard Johnson, Anthony Gaitor, Brandon McDonald, and Danny Gorrer. None of them really looked like long term starters as the Buccaneers ranked 29th against the pass. They might be able to get away with one of that group as a starter in 2013, but not two. Look for them to target cornerbacks in free agency and/or with the 13th pick of the draft.

Defensive Tackle

Gerald McCoy showed what he can do if he can stay healthy, playing all 16 games for the first time in his 3 year career and having one of the top years by a defensive tackle this season. However, they need an upgrade next to him. Roy Miller is a decent run stuffer, but he had just 5 total quarterback pressures all year. He’s a free agent anyway.

Tight End

The Buccaneers traded away Kellen Winslow last off-season, which proved to be a smart move. He went on to be a final cut by the Seahawks and then was unwanted on the open market, playing a few snaps with the Patriots and that was it. The idea was for 2011 4th round pick Luke Stocker to be his replacement. While he did a good job as a blocker, he didn’t provide much as a pass catcher. Those duties were left to Dallas Clark, but he’s a free agent heading into his age 34 season. They need a pass catching tight end to pair with Stocker long term.

Safety

Ronde Barber had a resurgent season this year at free safety, after the longtime veteran struggled last year at cornerback. However, he turns 38 in April and no one would be surprised if he hung them up. Even if he doesn’t, you can’t count on him long term. He’ll be retiring soon and his abilities could fall off a cliff at any time. They’ll need a long term successor or immediate replacement depending on what he decides, though they might opt to replace him in house with Ahmad Black.

Defensive End

Michael Bennett is one of the most underrated players in the NFL. A lot of common fans don’t know about him, but he’ll get a hefty payday this offseason as a free agent. If the Buccaneers can’t bring him back, they should be fine with 2011 1st and 2nd round picks Adrian Clayborn and Da’Quan Bowers as starters, but they’ll have no depth and have a need at the position. They should really try to re-sign him though because that trio plays really well together.

Outside Linebacker

The Buccaneers rarely used a 3rd linebacker this season. I don’t know if that was by design, but it might have just been because the coaching staff didn’t trust Quincy Black. Black has been terrible since signing a ridiculous 5 year, 29 million dollar deal 2 off-seasons ago. He should be cut, owed a non-guaranteed 5.5 million coming off a major neck injury sustained in Novemer. The Buccaneers could bring in another 3rd linebacker or give the job to Adam Hayward, who was decent in Black’s absence down the stretch.

Quarterback

Josh Freeman’s inconsistency has to be maddeningly frustrating for Buccaneers fans. At times, he can look like one of the best quarterbacks in the league and at times he can look like the worst. All in all, he posts solid stats, but it’s never a good thing to have no idea what you’re getting from your starting quarterback on a game to game basis. He’s heading into free agency after next season, so this is a key year for him. The Buccaneers have mentioned on several occasions adding a better backup and more competition for him. Dan Orlovsky is no threat to his job. They need to bring in someone who can be, preferably through the early/mid rounds of the draft so he can take over as a starter in 2014 if they need him to.

Guard

Both guards Carl Nicks and Davin Joseph will be coming off major injuries next season. They need some better depth because both Ted Larsen and Jamon Meredith were terrible when counted on this season. Davin Joseph is overrated and overpaid anyway, as he ranked towards the bottom of ProFootballFocus’ guards in his previous two seasons before his injury this year. He probably won’t be cut or anything, but they could use better depth for competition in case he continues to struggle.

Kick Returner

The Buccaneers ranked 30th in the NFL in kickoff return average. Arrelious Benn should not be allowed to serve in that role any longer.

Punt Returner

The Buccaneers were better at returning punts, but primary punt returner Roscoe Parrish is a free agent.

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Miami Dolphins 2013 Needs

stevenlourie Dolphins

The Dolphins have been searching for Dan Marino’s replacement since he retired. Desperate for a quarterback, the Dolphins took raw quarterback Ryan Tannehill 8th overall in the 2012 NFL Draft and when veteran Matt Moore struggled in the pre-season, they made Tannehill a rookie starter. It’s tough to make much of a verdict on his future because he’s still so raw and because he’s not working with the best group of receivers, but even though he was inconsistent this year, the Dolphins have to be pleased with him and hopeful for the future. Now it’s time to build around him and give him every chance to succeed.

Wide Receiver

The Dolphins didn’t give Ryan Tannehill much to work with in terms of receivers after trading away Brandon Marshall. They had no proven receivers in the mix coming into the season. He helped Brian Hartline turn into a 1000 yard receiver, but he was really inconsistent. He had 1083 yards, but almost a quarter of those yards in one game. He was limited to 2 or fewer catches in 5 games, including a game against St. Louis in which he didn’t see a single target, and he only scored once all year.

He’s not consistent enough to be a #1 receiver and he’s a free agent anyway. If he leaves, they’ll need two new starters, but even if he returns, they’ll still need a long term #1 receiver, which would allow Brian Hartline and slot receiver Davone Bess to play complimentary roles. They could easily use the 12th overall pick on Keenan Allen.

Offensive Tackle

The Dolphins should make re-signing Jake Long a priority. I know he was just a 2nd round rookie, but if this year was any indication, Jonathan Martin belongs at right tackle long term. He was terrible all year, ranking 76th among 80 eligible tackles on ProFootballFocus, but was even worse on the left side when Jake Long missed time with injury. In just 5 starts there, he allowed 22 total sacks, hits, and hurries. That’s more than Long allowed all year in 11 starts. If he’s not re-signed, they’ll need at least another starting tackle as swing tackle Nate Garner can’t be counted on, but preferably it would be someone who could play on the left side.

Defensive End

Jared Odrick really struggled at defensive end, ranking 59th out of 62 eligible 4-3 ends on ProFootballFocus, but that makes sense since he’s a defensive tackle. I have no idea what the Dolphins were thinking moving him to end in their new 4-3. He’s a much better fit inside, where he’d rotate with Randy Starks (assuming he’s re-signed, more on that later) and Paul Soliai. That leaves them needing a new defensive end, unless they think nickel rusher and 3rd round rookie Olivier Vernon can be a starter long term.

Cornerback

The Dolphins traded Vontae Davis for a 2nd round pick before the season in a surprise move and it looks like the right one. They were right to be concerned about his conditioning and durability as he was frequently injured with the Colts this year and struggled when on the field. However, cornerback is a big need of theirs so they might use that 2nd round pick on another cornerback. Richard Marshall is no sure thing going forward after back surgery. Nolan Carroll and Jimmy Wilson both struggled when counted on. Sean Smith, meanwhile, emerged as a legitimate #1 cornerback this season, but he’s now a free agent.

Guard

John Jerry was better than maybe his own team thought he would be. The Dolphins had him behind two veteran journeymen on the depth chart at separate points this off-season before one got hurt and the other retired and they were forced to start Jerry, who showed up overweight to Training Camp and was already a poor fit for their new zone blocking scheme. Though he wasn’t bad, he wasn’t good either and he could be upgraded with someone who is a better fit for the scheme.

Tight End

The Dolphins used a 3rd round pick on Michael Egnew last year in a very surprising move and almost immediately regretted it once they got him into camp. They were even rumored to be contemplating making him a final cut last off-season, which would have been unheard of for someone who was a 3rd round pick just 4 months earlier. He was kept on the roster, but played just 25 snaps all season and I think it would be a surprise if he were on the week 1 roster in 2013. He’s certainly not going to be seen as a candidate to replace Anthony Fasano, a mediocre starting tight end who isn’t expected to be brought back as a free agent this offseason. They could replace him in house with Charles Clay, who has some promise, but they could easily bring someone else at the position in.

Defensive Tackle

The Dolphins should move Jared Odrick inside, where he could play an expanded version of the role that was played by Tony McDaniel, who really struggled, last season. Even if they do that, however, this could still be a need if free agent Randy Starks is let go. Odrick could move into the starting lineup for him, but they’d need depth at that case.

Safety

After a couple years of mediocre play, Chris Clemons and Reshad Jones were a very good safety tandem this year. Both are young and should be retained long term. Jones is heading into a contract year, while Clemons is currently a free agent. They should considering giving Jones an extension and they should definitely try to bring back Clemons. If they can’t, he’ll need to be replaced.

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San Diego Chargers 2013 Needs

stevenlourie Chargers

3 years ago everyone was calling for Norv Turner to be fired because of the Chargers’ tendency to have strong regular seasons and then choke in the playoffs every year. I bet the Chargers would trade the last three years for that. Over the last 3 years, the Chargers have begun their underachieving earlier, missing the playoffs in all 3 seasons.

On one hand, things are looking up. Norv Turner was finally fired, as well the architect of this mess, GM AJ Smith. On the other hand, Philip Rivers, once one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL, has regressed mightily over the last 2 seasons. It’s tough to tell why. It’s possible that the 31-year-old quarterback aged early like Carson Palmer. It’s also possible that a lack of offensive supporting cast is to blame. The Chargers will have to focus on the offense this offseason to try to get something out of Rivers, but it wouldn’t shock me if Rivers were throwing for 4000 yards on a 4-12 Raiders team in 3 years. Just saying.

Offensive Tackle

Darren Sproles. LaDainian Tomlinson. Kris Dielman. Marcus McNeill. Vincent Jackson. Antonio Gates. Philip Rivers once had great offensive talent around him on the ground, through the air, and on the line. Of those 6, only Gates remains and he’s a shell of his former shelf and the guys the Chargers replaced them with are pathetic. Ryan Mathews and Ronnie Brown take over LT’s and Sproles’ roles at running back. Tyronne Greene and Mike Harris start on the line in place of Dielman and McNeill. Vincent Jackson is gone, replaced by Malcom Floyd and Danario Alexander. You can’t adequately judge what kind of quarterback Philip Rivers is at this stage of his career in these circumstances. Only a few quarterbacks in the NFL would be able to make anything out of this mess.

The offensive line is the worst. AJ Smith had been the GM since 2004 and he only once used a pick higher than the 3rd round on the offensive line and it showed as they had no depth when injuries hit Marcus McNeill and Kris Dielman, who had to retire early. Left tackle McNeill retired early because of neck problems, while right tackle Jeromey Clary has always been a liability. It’s fine to have one weakness on the offensive line like Clary, but he was actually the better of the two starting tackles this season.

Jared Gaither was given a significant contract after 5 starts with the team last off-season, but he predictably couldn’t stay healthy and didn’t play a snap, forcing undrafted rookie Mike Harris to start on the left side. Making just 12 starts because of injury, Harris still managed to grade out dead last among eligible tackles on ProFootballFocus. As a result, the Chargers ranked 31st in the NFL in pass block efficiency, even worse than Arizona and only ahead of Indianapolis. They need at least one new starter here, if not two. Eric Fisher will be considered at 11 in the NFL Draft.

Guard

You can’t just blame the tackles for this horrific offensive line. Tyronne Greene and Rex Hadnot split starts at left guard in the absence of retired Kris Dielman and neither played well. Right guard Louis Vazquez, meanwhile, was their only offensive lineman who played well this season. The problem is he’s a free agent. He’ll obviously need to be re-signed. I don’t want to see what this offensive line would look like without him.

Cornerback

Starting cornerbacks Quentin Jammer and Antoine Cason are both free agents, but neither one of them played well this past season. Jammer’s best days are well behind him as he turns 34 in June, while Antoine Cason has been up and down in his career since going in the 1st round in 2008, but he picked a bad year to be down as this was his contract year. Even if he returns as a starter, they need a replacement for Quentin Jammer, to go with Marcus Gilchrist, a promising nickel back, and Cason long term.

Rush Linebacker

The Chargers need a bookend long term for 2012 1st round pick Melvin Ingram. Jarret Johnson and Shaun Phillips are both heading into their age 32 seasons. The former isn’t much of a pass rusher, as his strength is stuffing the run, while Phillips is a free agent this off-season. Meanwhile, Antawn Barnes proved his random 11 sack performance in 2011 was a complete fluke. He had just 3 this season and barely played down the stretch.

Running Back

Unsurprisingly, after firing Norv Turner and AJ Smith, a report came out that the Chargers weren’t as high on Ryan Mathews’ upside as they were when they took him 12th overall in 2010. Turner and Smith had big plans for him, but that didn’t get them very far. He managed just 184 carries because of injuries and averaged just 3.7 YPC when he did play. Mathews actually had a strong season in 2011 when paired with another back so they should add a compliment for him and insurance since he gets hurt so much. He’s clearly not the lead back they thought he was.

Middle Linebacker

Takeo Spikes may have played his last NFL snap. No one would be shocked if he hung them up. Even if he returns, he’ll be 37 in 2013. They need a successor. Jonas Mouton was a 2nd round pick of the old regime in 2011, but he’s played just 5 snaps in 2 seasons, so it’s unlikely he’s seen as a long term solution, especially with a new regime coming in.

Quarterback

Right now, I don’t think Philip Rivers is the problem. It’s his supporting cast. They should focus on adding talent around him rather than adding competition for him. The goal should be to determine Rivers’ future as the quarterback of the Chargers by the off-season after the 2014 season, when they’ll have to cut him, owed 15.75 million in a contract year, or sign him to a long-term extension into his mid-30s. However, adding a developmental quarterback through the draft isn’t a bad idea just in case he really is Carson Palmer 2.0.

3-4 Defensive End

Jon Gruden is physical incapable of saying anything bad about anyone, so I got a kick out of how he described Vaughn Martin during the 2011 season, saying something along the lines of “once this guy learns how to play, he’s going to be an excellent football player.” That’s not inaccurate, but he doesn’t seem to have learned how to play, struggling in every season as a rotational 3-4 defensive end. He’s a free agent this off-season and the Chargers should bring in another guy to rotate with Kendall Reyes and Corey Liuget, as well as to move inside at times and spell nose tackle Cam Thomas. Aubrayo Franklin is also a free agent this off-season.

Kicker

Nick Novak is a free agent who will need to be retained or replaced if he’s not brought back.

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Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers: Divisional Round Pick

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This is one of three rematch games this week. It has several obvious differences from Baltimore/Denver and New England/Houston. Both of those games were blowouts. Both of those games were fairly recent. These two teams played way back in week 1 and San Francisco won 30-22. And both of those games are once again expected to be blowouts, as the line on both is huge. This might be the most intriguing game of the weekend.

Because these two teams played so long ago, it’s tough to extrapolate what happened in that game to this one. Green Bay probably was healthier then as they’ve lost right tackle Bryan Bulaga to injury since, but they’re now the healthiest they’ve been in a long while with all 4 of their top receivers healthy at once, as well as defensive keys Clay Matthews and Charles Woodson. In spite of injuries, they have still won 10 of their last 12, including 2 over playoff qualifying Minnesota and an impressive blowout in Houston. Because of all their injuries this season, they’re a deeper team than they were earlier in the year. Key players like Randall Cobb, Sam Shields, and Casey Hayward barely played in the week 1 matchup.

San Francisco is also less healthy than they were week 1. Justin Smith tore his triceps against New England and they’ve really missed him. Justin, not Aldon, is the most irreplaceable defensive player on the 49ers’ defense. He’s the one who draws all the double teams, giving Aldon lots of one on one opportunities, where he’s close to unstoppable.

Among all the top pass rushers in the league, no one saw single blocking as often as Aldon Smith. However, he struggled when he was the one doubled in Justin’s absence, failing to record a single sack. It’s no coincidence that the Patriots scored 34 in the 2nd half against their defense after scoring just 3 in the first half. Justin Smith left early in the 2nd half of that game. They then went on to be blown out by the Seahawks the following week, before struggling against Arizona week 17, allowing the what was just the Cardinals’ 3rd passing touchdown since week 5.

Smith returns this week, but it remains to be seen how effective he can be. He’s a very tough player, but some doctors opined that his injury would take 12 weeks to heal and it’s barely been 4. Of course, because his greatest value is taking on double teams, if the Packers still fear him enough to double team him, his presence in the lineup will be valuable, even as a decoy. If they choose to make Justin prove it first, the 49ers could be in real trouble defensively with their center piece playing hurt. It’s a question mark, but the situation obviously favors the Packers and their elite offense.

The Packers may have an elite offense, but their defense certainly didn’t look elite against the 49ers week 1, allowing the 49ers to score 30 points and Alex Smith to complete 20 of 26 for 211 yards and 2 touchdowns. Colin Kaepernick is an upgrade over him, but I wouldn’t be so sure he’ll exceed those numbers or even match them. Smith didn’t make many tough throws. The Packers blew coverages all game, something they didn’t really do the rest of the season. In fact, they were the NFL’s 11th ranked scoring defense and 8th ranked passing defense this season. They may have just not been taking the 49ers seriously in what was clearly a statement game for the 49ers.

They should present Kaepernick with a tough matchup, especially at home in his first NFL start. Quarterbacks are just 4-10 ATS as home favorite making their postseason debut since 2002. If their defense were at full strength, they definitely would have the supporting cast to overcome that, but I don’t know about Smith. Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, and Aaron Rodgers are three quarterbacks with Super Bowl rings in a postseason where 8 quarterbacks came in without a single playoff win. I think they have a tremendous advantage over everyone else and I fully expect them to make up 3 of the NFL’s final 4. Kaepernick’s inexperience will definitely favor the Packers.

I also think the Packers’ playing last week favors them. Momentum is huge in the playoffs. They have it, just like they did in 2010. In 2011, they came into the playoffs with Rodgers having just 1 win in his last 3 games (he didn’t play week 17) and then he sat another week. This year, I think they’re in a much better position for a deep playoff run.

There are some trends that also favor the Packers. Teams are 52-27 ATS as road dogs since 2002 trying to avenge a same season home loss as favorites. Going off that, Aaron Rodgers is 13-6 ATS as a dog in his career. He’s also only lost to the same team twice in the same season in his career, winning 3 of 4 same season revenge games, ironically losing twice to Brett Favre and the Vikings in 2009. I really like the Packers in this one. I thought about dropping the units because Green Bay is a publicly backed underdog, but I decided against it because I think it’s with good reason. Green Bay is my pick of the week.

Green Bay Packers 27 San Francisco 49ers 17

Pick against spread: Green Bay +3 (-110) 5 units

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Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos: Divisional Round Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Playoffs 2 NFL Picks, Broncos, Ravens

Both the Patriots and Broncos are both around 9.5 point favorites against the Texans and Ravens respectively. Both teams blew out their current opponent late in the same season. I took the points with the Texans because I thought the line was too big, but I’m not going to do the same thing here for several reasons. The Texans and Patriots play a same site rematch. Non-divisional teams are 26-12 ATS in a same site revenge game since 1989, but 14-20 ATS when the site is different.

Plus, unlike when the Texans and Patriots played the first time, it wasn’t a complete blowout. It might sound counterintuitive, but the bigger the regular season blowout, the more likely a team covers in the rematch, especially in the playoffs. This is because it creates an added motivational edge for the team who got blown and it typically skews the line heavily in favor of the favorite based off just one game.

Going off that, I don’t think the Texans’ play in New England was indicative of the type of team they are. They just had a very bad game. The Ravens, meanwhile, were just as bad as they looked in a 34-17 home loss to the Broncos. They went 10-6 and could have easily gone 8-8 if not for Ben Roethlisberger’s injury (or even Byron Leftwich’s injury) and Ray Rice’s ridiculous 4th and 29 conversion. They had a ridiculous 5 wins by 3 or fewer points. They only outgained opponents by 25 yards this season and, coming into the playoffs, they hadn’t beaten a single playoff team since losing Lardarius Webb early in the season (0-4).

Last week, Ray Lewis returned and they beat Indianapolis, but what Lewis adds to this team at this point in his career is mostly intangible (the Ravens still struggles against the run last week) and Indianapolis was the worst team in the playoffs, with just 3 wins against teams with a .500 or better record and two wins by more than a touchdown. And Indianapolis was still only outgained by 20.

Now they have to go to Denver and play a significantly better team than them who beat them by 17 in a result that should have surprised no one (that’s the difference, the Houston blowout loss was a surprise at the time because they’re a better team than Baltimore). And that was in Baltimore. Now they have to go to Denver and play in the high altitude, where the Broncos lost just once this season.

The Ravens aren’t a very good road team anyway. Despite outscoring teams by an average of 10.9 points per game at home over the last 2 seasons, they are being outscored by -0.7 points per game on the road. Joe Flacco’s statistics are the most noticeable difference. Over the last 2 seasons, he’s completed 59.5% of his passes for an average of 8.0 YPA, 29 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions at home. On the road, he’s completed 57.4% of his passes for an average of 6.2 YPA, 19 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. As a result, they average 28.7 points per game at home and 19.0 per game on the road during that time period.

I think Denver is a little overrated. People like to completely dismiss their first 5 games because Peyton Manning was still getting into form, which makes some sense, but if you do that, they’ve only played two .500 teams all season. I don’t think they’re the Super Bowl favorite and I question how they’ll match up with someone like the Patriots or an NFC team in the Super Bowl. However, they should be able to get a blowout here. During their 11 game winning streak, none of the games were really even close and as easy as the schedule was, Baltimore isn’t much better. They’re also overrated and were blown out at home against the Broncos earlier this year. Denver is the pick, however obvious it might seem.

Denver Broncos 31 Baltimore Ravens 17

Pick against spread: Denver -9.5 (-110) 2 units

Tennessee Titans 2013 Needs

stevenlourie Titans

After going 9-7 with one of the NFL’s youngest rosters in 2011 (26th in average age heading into the season), the Titans had a lot of hope for this season. Jake Locker was supposed to be an upgrade over veteran game manager Matt Hasselbeck at quarterback. Receiver Kenny Britt was finally supposedly healthy and Chris Johnson couldn’t possibly be worse than he was in 2011. Meanwhile, their young defense which ranked 8th in opponents’ scoring in 2011 looked like it once again could be a top-10 unit.

What happened? The Titans weren’t just bad. They were awful, even worse than their 6-10 record suggested, which is rare for a team with as few wins as they had. They ranked 30th in the NFL in DVOA and only the Jaguars and Chiefs had a worse points differential than they did. They had just two wins by more than 4 points and 6 losses by more than 21. Their defense was the biggest problem as they really showed their youth, going from 8th in opponents’ scoring to dead last, but they weren’t the only ones to blame.

Jake Locker really struggled in his first season as a starter, due probably in large part to two separated shoulder injuries. Even ancient backup Matt Hasselbeck outplayed him, as the strongest part of their season came when he was under center. They have the potential to get better next season because of their age, but they really need to play better. If they play like they did this season again, they’ll probably be much closer to 2-14 than 6-10.

Safety

Michael Griffin is owed 4.5 million in 2012, but it’ll only be guaranteed if he’s on the roster 5 days after the Super Bowl, so the Titans have a window of time to cut him. They should consider doing so. They gave the up and down former 1st round pick safety a big long term deal this offseason and he responded by having arguably his worst season as a pro, routinely missing tackles and coverages, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 86th rated safety out of 88. His 22 missed tackles led the NFL.

Even if he’s given a 2nd chance, safety is still a need. Other starter Jordan Babineaux was better by default, but not much. He was ProFootballFocus’ 76th rated safety. There’s a reason why the Titans ranked 24th against the pass and dead last in points per game allowed. He doesn’t have as much bounce back potential as Griffin and the veteran journeyman was benched twice this past season, so he could easily not return as a starter next year. At the very least, they need competition at the position, but at least one starting caliber safety should be brought in.

Middle Linebacker

2011 4th round pick Colin McCarthy had a decent second half to his rookie year after becoming the starter and had a lot of promise coming into this year, but various injuries derailed him, costing him all but 7 games. When he did play, he was awful. Despite his limited playing time, he still ended up with the 5th lowest rating on ProFootballFocus among eligible middle linebackers. The Titans could easily opt to replace him this offseason. Manti Te’o will be an option at 10th overall.

Cornerback

Their safeties weren’t solely responsible for their terrible pass defense, though more blame falls on them than the cornerbacks. Starters Jason McCourty and Alterraun Verner both played well, but they really missed Cortland Finnegan. With Finnegan, this was a position of major depth, but without him, they had nothing good behind the starters. Verner is a free agent next offseason anyway. DeMarcus Milliner is another option at 10th overall.

Guard

Chris Johnson’s blocking wasn’t as bad this year as it had been in the past, but guard is still a need. They really struggled for consistency at right guard, playing several different players there, while left guard Steve Hutchinson struggled in his age 35 season. Owed 5.25 million next season and not getting any younger, the Titans might not bring him back, in which case they’d need at least one, if not two new starters at guard.

Defensive End

Like at cornerback, the starters actually played pretty well here. Free agent acquisition Kamerion Wimbley panned out, while former 1st round pick bust Derrick Morgan had a very strong season in his 3rd year in the league, his first without injury issues. However, like cornerback, they really lack depth. Morgan and Wimbley played a ton of snaps, while top reserves Scott Solomon and Jarius Wynn were terrible in the limited action they got.

Running Back

Will Chris Johnson be back? I think they should consider parting ways with him. Overall, his production wasn’t bad this year, but he was just so inconsistent and reliant on his blocking. He had 1243 rushing yards, but had 56 or fewer in half of his starts. Turning 28 in 2013, he’s not getting any younger and running backs have a short shelf life. He’ll probably be brought back because of his star value, but he’s not worth the 10 million he’s owed in 2013. They at least need some competition for him and a better compliment. Javon Ringer is a free agent and he never managed to see any significant playing time, even when Johnson was struggling.

Center

Center wasn’t an issue for the Titans in 2012 as they finally seem to have found a successor for long time center Kevin Mawae in Fernando Velasco, who graded out 11th overall at his position on ProFootballFocus. However, he’s a free agent this offseason and if he’s not retained, they’ll have a need at the position.

Tight End

Jared Cook is also a free agent. He’s so athletic, but has never really lived up to the athleticism, with the exception of a few stretches of dominance. It’ll be interesting to see what kind of market he’s greeted with this off-season. I feel like he could be a dominant receiving tight end if he ended up in the right offense with a good quarterback, but that’s no sure thing. The Titans should still try to re-sign and they’ll need to replace him if they don’t.

Quarterback

It’s obviously too soon to give up on Jake Locker. He was terrible this year, but he was the 8th overall pick in 2011 and he hasn’t even made a full season’s worth of starts yet. He also suffered several shoulder injuries last year and never was really fully healthy all year, which might be to blame for his struggles. However, they definitely need some competition for him and a strong veteran backup. They had one last year in Matt Hasselbeck, but it’s unclear if he’ll be back at his currently scheduled 5.5 million dollar salary in 2013, his age 38 season. If he’s not, they’ll need to replace him.

Fullback

Quinn Johnson struggled as their lead blocker this season. He’s a free agent anyway.

Kicker

Rob Bironas is also a free agent this off-season. The long time vet is still kicking at a high level and should be retained if possible.

Kick Returner

Darius Reynaud was the Titans’ primary kick returner this season and he was very good at it. The problem is he’s a free agent this off-season.

Punt Returner

You can copy and paste what’s above. Reynaud also returned punts at a high level this season.

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New York Jets 2013 Needs

stevenlourie Jets

Several teams had worse years than the Jets, but I don’t think anyone had a weirder year. Turned into a circus in the offseason by the media, the Jets lived up to the hype. Neither Mark Sanchez nor Tim Tebow led a touchdown drive all pre-season, but after a blowout win over the Bills week 1 and another win against the Dolphins week 3, this time in overtime, the Jets stood at 2-1. However, they suffered a major loss in that win, losing Darrelle Revis for the season. The following week, they were blown out 34-0 at home by the 49ers, on the strength of a Santonio Holmes “fumble.” Holmes got hurt on the play and mindlessly tossed the ball up in the air, only to have it returned for a touchdown by the Jets. Holmes didn’t play again the rest of the year.

After winning 2 of their first 3 games, the Jets won just 2 in their next 9 games, including the infamous “butt fumble” loss to the Patriots, which caused top fan Fireman Ed to quit. Mark Sanchez was struggling mightily, but Rex Ryan was stubbornly sticking with him even though the Jets had spent significant resources to acquire Tim Tebow during the offseason, presumably to provide competition for Sanchez. However, Ryan told the media that Tebow was never brought in to be a quarterback and that his current role, a few snaps and odds jobs per game, was his intended role. That doesn’t make any sense considering what they gave up for him, but I wouldn’t put it past the Jets. They may have just brought in Tebow to attract media attention.

Of course, Rex Ryan may have been lying when he said that. It’s very possible that there was just a major disconnect between the front office and Ryan on the situation. The front office clearly wanted him there for some reason. They traded for him. But Rex Ryan wanted no part of him on the field. Unsurprisingly, the game Ryan finally benched Sanchez, a 3 interception performance in an eventual 7-6 win that might have been the worst NFL game of the season, was the game in which Greg McElroy was Sanchez’ backup because Tebow was hurt.

Sanchez got his starting job back, but not for long. After a 5 turnover performance in a very winnable MNF game against the lowly Titans, the man who apparently has a tattoo of his wife wearing a Mark Sanchez jersey finally benched Sanchez, but it was too late as the Jets had already been eliminated from the playoffs with that loss. Ironically enough, Rex Ryan completely skipped 2nd string on his depth chart and started 3rd stringer Greg McElroy over Tebow when Sanchez was benched.

McElroy played like the inexperienced former 7th round pick he was, showing no pocket presence whatsoever, taking a ridiculous 11 sacks, most of which were on him as he was only pressured on 17 drop backs. McElroy got hurt in that game and Ryan went back to Sanchez for week 17, a loss to the Bills, which ended their season at 6-10.

Rex Ryan kept his job, but everyone else was fired. GM Mike Tannenbaum, the man responsible for numerous terrible contracts over the years, was fired, as was most of Ryan’s coaching staff. Their quarterback for 2013 is still a major question mark, but it appears that Tim Tebow will not be brought back. Mark Sanchez will have to be back because of his salary, thanks to the ridiculous extension Tannenbaum gave him, but there’s no guarantee he’ll be the starter.

Quarterback

Where do I even begin here? Following the worst season of Mark Sanchez’ career in 2011, the Jets pursued Peyton Manning heavily last off-season, but he went elsewhere. The Jets apparently decided that was a good reason to give Mark Sanchez an extension, widely viewed as an apology extension, even though he showed major signs of stunted development. To make matters worse, the Jets then decided to trade a 4th round pick for Tim Tebow, less than a month after guaranteeing Sanchez’ salary for the 2012 and 2013 seasons. This allegedly killed Mark Sanchez’ confidence and he played like it, having by far the worst season of his career in 2013.

The worst of it all, they had no actual plans to use Tim Tebow. He played a few random snaps per game, generally ineffectively, and Rex Ryan said this was the plan all along. Because that’s worth a 4th round pick and a 2.5 million dollar salary. When Mark Sanchez was eventually benched for ineffectiveness, after the Jets season was already over, Head Coach Rex Ryan skipped right over 2nd string Tebow on the depth chart and promoted 3rd string quarterback Greg McElroy. This was apparently because Tebow didn’t look good in practice, but he’s never looked good in practice. That’s a widely known fact about him. The Jets had to have known that when they acquired him.

Tim Tebow may or may not have asked to be traded or cut this offseason, but either way, it’s hard to imagine him back with the Jets in 2013. The Jets have said they are “open” to moving Mark Sanchez this offseason, just like I’m “open” to going home with Miss Universe. Not happening. Because he’s owed a fully guaranteed 8.25 million in 2013, thanks to that ridiculous extension, no one will even give up a 7th round pick for him and they can’t cut him because that would be a roughly 16 million dollar cap hit. They may bring in competition for Sanchez and McElroy, but the early money is on Sanchez starting for the Jets week 1, especially with biggest supporter Rex Ryan being retained as Head Coach.

Rush Linebacker

The Jets ranked 27th in the NFL in pass rush efficiency. Aaron Maybin, who was supposed to be a big part of their pass rush, was cut midseason. Calvin Pace is expected to be a cap casualty, owed 8.31 million in his age 33 season in 2013 after a terrible year in 2012, while Bryan Thomas is a free agent heading into his age 34 season. The only player who played a significant amount of snaps at the position expected to be back in 2013 is Garrett McIntyre, who didn’t play well in a situational role this year. They need at least one new starter at the position, maybe two. Unlikely to select a quarterback in the first round because of Sanchez’ salary, they could definitely take a pass rusher at #9 overall.

Safety

Both of the Jets’ starting safeties are free agents this off-season. Yeremiah Bell is a free agent heading into his age 35 season this year, while LaRon Landry has an injury history. Despite making the Pro-Bowl, he’s a pretty marginal player now even when healthy. Injuries have sapped his explosiveness and he missed 13 tackles last season. Injuries weren’t the only reason why he was pretty unwanted on the open market last off-season.

Wide Receiver

Mark Sanchez isn’t the only overpaid player that the Jets can’t cut this off-season. Santonio Holmes is owed 11 million in 2013. He’s not worth nearly half of that, but 7.5 million of that is guaranteed and the cap hit would be too huge to cut him. I guess he’ll be back as a starter, but I don’t think they can count on him. He’s not very good and he won’t be any better coming off a major injury. He’s also caused several locker room problems.
Stephen Hill will probably be back as the other starter opposite him. He’s not very good either, but the Jets have to give the 2012 2nd round pick another chance. He was widely considered a project and you can never write off a receiver after one year. Their top receiver last year was Jeremy Kerley and he’s the only receiver they can really count on next year, so they should add another one in the mix.

Running Back

Shonn Greene is a free agent and he’s a pretty marginal talent anyway. If the Jets didn’t have so many other needs, I’d suggest they invest in an explosive running back to take some pressure off their quarterbacks, but the Jets might have to bring back Shonn Greene to continue splitting carries with Bilal Powell, a 2011 4th round pick who played well down the stretch.

Tight End

Dustin Keller was the Jets’ leading receiver in 2011, catching 65 passes for 815 yards and 5 touchdowns, but injuries limited him to 28 catches for 317 yards and 2 touchdowns in 8 games this year. He’s a free agent and the Jets should try to retain him because, when healthy, he’s their best receiving option and last year was the first year he had ever missed a game in his 5 year career.

The Jets are rumored to be interested in franchise tagging him, but he didn’t seem too keen on that idea, saying “I signed a five-year deal, that’s what I agreed to. To make somebody play a one-year deal to something they never agreed to is crazy to me. It’s not legal in any other business, so it’s still, it’s just crazy to me. So no, I definitely don’t want to be franchised.” Apparently being given close to 6 million guaranteed should be “not legal.” It’ll be interesting to see if that deters the Jets from tagging him. The last thing they need is a drawn out franchise tag saga to add to all of their other drama.

Guard

Starting guards Matt Slauson and Brandon Moore are both free agents. They need to be retained and if they can’t be, they’ll need to be replaced. Who else’s ass is Mark Sanchez going to run into? In all seriousness, both Slauson and Moore are very talented players who the Jets can’t let get away. Vladimir Ducaase, a former 2nd round pick, would probably be thrust into a starting role if either one or both leaves, but he’s struggled whenever he’s been counted on to play thus far in his NFL career. Last offseason, he could even beat out the terrible Wayne Hunter and inexperienced journeyman Austin Howard at right tackle.

Middle Linebacker

Both of the Jets’ starting middle linebackers could be cap casualties. Bart Scott is owed 6.9 million in 2013, his age 33 season, and at this point in his career, he’s only a two down run stuffer and not worth that amount. Meanwhile, David Harris was ProFootballFocus’ 48th ranked middle linebacker out of 53 last year and is owed 10.9 million in the 3rd year of a ridiculous 4 year deal he was given after the 2010 season. Demario Davis, a 2012 3rd round pick, played alright in limited action this year and is viewed as a future starter, but if they cut both, they’ll have to find someone to play next to Davis.

Offensive Tackle

Austin Howard was a great run blocker in his first year as a starter at right tackle, but he struggled some in pass protection, allowing 10 sacks. Some of that can be blamed on poor pocket awareness by the quarterbacks and he actually graded out overall positively on ProFootballFocus (though negatively as a pass blocker), but I guess he could be upgraded if they could find an upgrade. I don’t know if it’s a pressing enough need, given all of their other needs, to be addressed this offseason.

3-4 Defensive End

Mike DeVito is a free agent. He’s a key part of their run defense and their defensive end rotation with Quinton Coples and Muhammad Wilkerson. If he isn’t re-signed, he’ll need to be replaced.

Fullback

Fullback Lex Hilliard is a free agent. He was ProFootballFocus’ worst rated eligible fullback last year anyway.

Kicker

Nick Folk is also a free agent. He’s had some struggles anyway.

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Houston Texans at New England Patriots: Divisional Round Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Playoffs 2 NFL Picks, Patriots, Texans

The Patriots blew out the Texans in Foxborough a few weeks ago so they’ll definitely blow them out again right? Well that seems to be what everyone thinks as, in spite of this ridiculous spread, the public is all over the Patriots. How ridiculous is this spread? Well, two weeks ago in the Patriots’ last game, they were favored by 10.5 over the Dolphins. Now they’re favored by 9.5 over the Texans? The Texans are 1 point better than the 7-9 Dolphins? Huh?

I love fading the public whenever it makes sense. The public always loses money in the long run. Odds makers are rich for a reason. Once again, I disagree with the public here. Just because the Patriots blew out the Texans last time, doesn’t mean they’ll do so again. This is a different game. In fact, the Texans may even have an edge because the Patriots might be overlooking the Texans a little bit here because of that game (and an impending showdown with the Broncos). Meanwhile, the Texans will use that as extra motivation.

Here’s an example: Boston sports writer Dan Shaughnessy joked that the Patriots were getting two bye weeks in a row, which Arian Foster turned into his Twitter avatar. Side note: I’m a Patriots fan, I was going to take Houston +9.5 anyway because it should be the right side, but when I found about what Shaughnessy said and Foster’s reaction to it, I was terrified (as a fan, for New England’s sake) because Shaughnessy always jinxes New England area sports teams. He’s not the only one. NBC’s Tony Dungy said that the Texans didn’t have a chance.

There’s a trend that sums the Texans revenge factor. Since 1989, teams are 8-4 ATS in the postseason trying to avenge a same season loss of 21 or more. The Patriots famously lost in this exact same situation a few years ago to the Jets. The Texans have the extra motivation. The Patriots might be overconfident. And this spread is out of control. Going off that trend, teams are 26-12 ATS in same season, same site, non-divisional revenge games since 1989.

The Patriots also tend to struggle as big favorites. They are 7-12 ATS as favorites of more than a touchdown since 2010, including that Jets loss. That’s crazy considering they are 23-9 ATS in all other situations. Whenever they have big expectations and are expected to blow teams out, they tend to disappoint a little and play closer games. Brady is also 1-7 ATS in his last 8 postseason games and 3-8 ATS all-time as a favorite of 4.5 or more in the post-season. I’m not going to pick the Patriots to lose or anything (they are 15-4 SU as favorites of more than a touchdown since 2010), but this game will be close, closer than people think. I’ll gladly take the points.

New England Patriots 27 Houston Texans 23

Pick against spread: Houston +9.5 (-110) 3 units

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