Month: December 2016

San Diego Chargers at Carolina Panthers: 2016 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 14 NFL Picks, Chargers, NFL Picks, Panthers

San Diego Chargers (5-7) at Carolina Panthers (4-8)

Five of the Panthers’ first seven losses came by 3 points or less, but their 8th loss of the season last week came in a 40-7 blowout in Seattle. Because of injuries, the Panthers are not the same team they were earlier this year. They’re down to their 3rd string center and 3rd string left tackle and are also missing top defensive player Luke Kuechly with injury. The Panthers fell to 23rd in first down rate differential with last week’s blowout loss and I think it would be hard to argue they’re not a bottom-10 team right now.

The Chargers, meanwhile, rank 6th in first down rate differential, despite their 5-7 record. All 7 of their losses have come by 8 points or fewer and they have a +15 point differential despite only having 5 wins. They also have a+19 first down differential, 7th best in the NFL. There’s not enough for me to bet any money on the Chargers with even odds, but they should be the pick because they are an underrated team and the Panthers are falling apart.

San Diego Chargers 23 Carolina Panthers 20

Pick against the spread: San Diego PK

Confidence: Low

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles: 2016 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 14 NFL Picks, Commanders, Eagles, NFL Picks

Washington Redskins (6-5-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (5-7)

The Eagles got blown out last week in Cincinnati and have been unimpressive offensively since losing stud right tackle Lane Johnson to suspension, but they still have a strong defense and they get their top-2 skill position players, wide receiver Jordan Matthews and running back Ryan Mathews, back from injury this week. They are at least as good as their opponents this week, the Washington Redskins. The Eagles have an advantage in point differential (+23 vs. +8) and in first down rate differential (20th vs. 24th). Despite that, the Eagles are 2.5 point home underdogs and the public is all over the Redskins, as a result of the Redskins’ better record (6-5-1 vs. 5-7). I love fading the public whenever it makes sense and it definitely does here, as the Eagles should be favored by a field goal. I’d need the full field goal with the Eagles to put money on the spread, but the money line is a good value either way.

Philadelphia Eagles 26 Washington Redskins 24 Upset Pick +125

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia +2.5

Confidence: Low

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Arizona Cardinals at Miami Dolphins: 2016 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 14 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Dolphins, NFL Picks

Arizona Cardinals (5-6-1) at Miami Dolphins (7-5)

The Dolphins were shockingly blown out in Baltimore last week, the Ravens’ biggest win by point total since 2009. That almost definitely figures to be the worst game of the Dolphins’ season when all is said and done. Besides last week, they’ve played pretty well and are still a capable team that ranks 18th in first down rate differential. The Dolphins’ loss last week actually puts them in a good spot this week. That might sound counterintuitive, but teams are 92-54 ATS since 2002 off of an against the spread loss of 28 or more (the Dolphins lost by 32 as 3.5 point underdogs).

It makes sense when you think about it, as teams tend to be overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed in that spot. On top of that, the Dolphins have a very easy game on deck as they head to New York to take on the Jets next week, a game in which they will almost definitely be road favorites. Home underdogs like the Dolphins are here (by 2 points) are 79-44 ATS since 2002 before being road favorites, as teams tend to be very focused in a tough home game before an easy road game.

The Dolphins could easily bounce back with a strong effort this week, but all that being said I’m picking the Cardinals as long as this line is under a field goal. The Cardinals are at the top of my underrated teams list. Despite their 5-6-1 record, they’ve won the first down rate battle in 10 of 12 games and they could easily be 9-3 right now, as they could have beaten New England, Los Angeles, Seattle, and Minnesota if one or two fluky things had gone their way (missed field goal against New England, punt return against Rams, blocked punt against Seattle, pick six against Minnesota).

The Cardinals actually rank 1st in first down rate differential. They ranked 1st in that metric last year as well. Carson Palmer is having a down year and they aren’t the same on either side of the ball without injured left tackle Jared Veldheer and injured defensive back Tyrann Mathieu, but they still have a strong defense and running game and are one of the better teams in the league in a year where there are very few top level teams. Even if the Dolphins bring a strong effort, the Cardinals could win by a field goal on the road, especially with the Dolphins missing center Mike Pouncey, linebackers Kiko Alonso and Jelani Jenkins, and defensive end Mario Williams with injury.

Arizona Cardinals 23 Miami Dolphins 20

Pick against the spread: Arizona -2

Confidence: None

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts: 2016 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 14 NFL Picks, Colts, NFL Picks, Texans

Houston Texans (6-6) at Indianapolis Colts (6-6)

The Colts are coming off of a huge 41-10 win over the Jets in New York on Monday Night Football. Typically, teams carry over strong performances on Monday Night into the following week, as teams are 40-23 ATS since 1989 off of a Monday Night Football win of 21 or more points. However, this line jumped significantly in the past week, from -4 in favor of Indianapolis on the early line last week to now -6.5, following Indianapolis’ huge win. As a result, we’d be getting no line value with the Colts.

With that in mind, I actually like the Texans this week, as they are in their 2nd of two road games. Teams are 140-108 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 111-74 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 235-252 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.98 points per game, as opposed to 334-467 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.00 points per game. I’d need at least a touchdown to put money on the Texans, but they’re the pick here.

Indianapolis Colts 24 Houston Texans 20

Pick against the spread: Houston +6.5

Confidence: Low

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions: 2016 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 14 NFL Picks, Bears, Lions, NFL Picks

Chicago Bears (3-9) at Detroit Lions (8-4)

The Lions are 8-4, but rank 22nd in first down rate differential. They’ve allowed 8 more first downs than they’ve gained and 3 more touchdowns than they’ve scored. Their 15-point win in New Orleans last week was easily their most impressive game of the season, but their other seven wins all came by a touchdown or less and all required 4th quarter comebacks. That’s relevant considering the Lions are favored by 7.5 points here as home against the Bears.

The Bears are one of the weaker teams in the NFL thanks to injuries and suspensions, as they’re missing their top two quarterbacks (Jay Cutler and Brian Hoyer), their top-4 pass catchers (Alshon Jeffery, Kevin White, Zach Miller, and Eddie Royal), their best offensive lineman (Kyle Long), and three of their best defensive players (middle linebackers Danny Trevathan and Jerrell Freeman and cornerback Kyle Fuller). However, they’re still fighting, keeping it close with Tennessee two weeks ago and winning straight up by 20 as home underdogs against the 49ers last week. There’s not enough here for me to put money on it, but I like the Bears’ chances of keeping this within a touchdown.

Detroit Lions 23 Chicago Bears 17

Pick against the spread: Chicago +7.5

Confidence: Low

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

New York Jets at San Francisco 49ers: 2016 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 14 NFL Picks, 49ers, Jets, NFL Picks

New York Jets (3-9) at San Francisco 49ers (1-11)

The Jets were embarrassed on national television in a 41-10 Monday Night Football home loss to the Indianapolis Colts last week. This might sound counterintuitive, but that puts them in a great spot this week, as teams are 92-54 ATS since 2002 off of an against the spread loss of 28 or more (the Jets lost by 31 as 2 point underdogs). It makes sense when you think about it, as teams tend to be overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed in that spot. I don’t know if the Jets are truly embarrassed or not, but they could easily be overlooked and I think they’re definitely undervalued.

This line shifted from 1 in favor of the 49ers on the early line last week to 3 this week, thanks to the Jets’ horrible showing on national television. That’s way too big of a line movement, especially considering the 49ers lost big as road favorites in Chicago last week. This line suggests that these two teams are more or less even, but I think the Jets are still a level above the 49ers, even down to 3rd string quarterback Bryce Petty. The 49ers’ defense has been decimated by injuries and this week they are missing left tackle Joe Staley, easily their best player on either side of the ball. They’ve lost their lost 11 straight games by an average of 14.91 points per game.

The 49ers could also easily overlook the Jets, with a tough road game in Atlanta on deck. Teams are 160-260 ATS since 2002 before being double digit underdogs, including 37-62 ATS as favorites. In a lost season, the 49ers could easily overlook a bad Jets team with a tough opponent on deck. The Jets are less likely to overlook the 49ers because of how badly they got beaten last week and the Jets are also the better team. There’s not enough here for me to put any money on the Jets as 3 point underdogs, but I think the money line at +120 is a good value.

New York Jets 17 San Francisco 49ers 16 Upset Pick +120

Pick against the spread: NY Jets +3

Confidence: Low

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Minnesota Vikings at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2016 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 14 NFL Picks, Jaguars, NFL Picks, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (6-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-10)

The Vikings have a strong defense, allowing the 6th lowest first down rate in the NFL, but they were dealt a huge blow when they lost Harrison Smith with an ankle injury that could sideline him for the rest of the year. As valuable to Minnesota’s defense as Earl Thomas is to Seattle’s, Smith is one of the top defensive players in the entire NFL. This defense won’t be the same without him. In fact, I think the Jaguars’ actually are the ones with the better defense in this matchup, as they rank 7th in first down rate allowed and are relatively healthy right now.

The Jaguars’ offense hasn’t been good this year, but they might actually have the better offense in this game too, with Minnesota entering 30th in first down rate. The Jaguars might have the better offense and defense and are at home, but are underdogs of 3.5 points because the Vikings are 6-6 and 2-10. The big difference between these two teams: the Vikings have a +13 turnover margin and a +6 return touchdown margin, while the Jaguars have a -18 turnover margin and a -4 return touchdown margin. Turnover margins are incredibly inconsistent on a week-to-week basis though (and, as a result, return touchdowns are as well). On average a team with a +3 turnover margin in a game will have a turnover margin of +0.0 the following week, the same average as teams that had a -3 turnover margin.

For this reason, I love betting on teams with poor turnover margins and against teams with great turnover margins. It might sound counterintuitive, but these two teams are about as far apart as you can get in turnover margins and return touchdown margins and we’re still only talking about a difference of about 30 snaps, when both teams have played about 1500 snaps this year each. Football is a short season and it’s easy to get caught up in records, but records can be skewed by outlier snaps. For the majority of the snaps this year, the Jaguars have outplayed the Vikings. Close to 1 in 4 games are decided by 3 points or fewer, so I love getting the Jaguars as 3.5 point home underdogs.

Jacksonville Jaguars 16 Minnesota Vikings 13 Upset Pick +160

Pick against the spread: Jacksonville +3.5

Confidence: High

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub[

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2016 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 14 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, NFL Picks, Saints

New Orleans Saints (5-7) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-6)

The Saints are just 5-7, but enter this game 5th in first down rate differential. That’s because, on the season, the Saints have 39 more first downs than their opponents (the 2nd best differential in the league) and 10 more offensive touchdowns than their opponents (tied for the 4th best differential in the league), but are just 5-7 because of because of a -4 margin in return touchdowns and 5 losses by 6 points or fewer (including 4 losses by 3 points or fewer). They had their worst week of the season last week in a 15-point home loss to the Lions, but could easily be 7-5 or 8-4 or even 9-3 right now if a few things had gone their way.

Despite that, the Saints are 3 point underdogs here in Tampa Bay, suggesting these two teams are even. The Buccaneers are 7-5, but rank 25th in first down rate differential. They’re not a bad team and they’re relatively healthy right now, but the Saints are also relatively healthy right now and are definitely the better team in this one, despite what the records say. The Buccaneers have also had a weak homefield advantage in recent years, going 20-39 ATS at home since 2009, including just 2-4 ATS at home this season. The Saints are my Pick of the Week this week.

New Orleans Saints 31 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 Upset Pick +125

Pick against the spread: New Orleans +3

Confidence: Pick of the Week

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills: 2016 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 14 NFL Picks, Bills, NFL Picks, Steelers

Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5) at Buffalo Bills (6-6)

The Steelers got a big home win last week against the New York Giants, but this could be a letdown game for them in Buffalo. The Steelers are just 10-22 ATS as non-divisional road favorites in the Mike Tomlin era (since 2007) and have already fallen flat this season in Philadelphia and Miami in that spot. In fact, the Steelers have just 3 road wins this season and two of them came against the Browns and the Colts without Andrew Luck. We’re getting good line value with the Bills as field goal home underdogs (I would have made it an even line), so the Bills are worth a bet if you can get them at that number. The money line is a good bet in either scenario though.

Buffalo Bills 23 Pittsburgh Steelers 20 Upset Pick +135

Pick against the Spread: Buffalo +3

Confidence: Medium

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Denver Broncos at Tennessee Titans: 2016 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 14 NFL Picks, Broncos, NFL Picks, Titans

Denver Broncos (8-4) at Tennessee Titans (6-6)

Despite 6-6 record, the Titans enter this game 7th in first down rate differential. They’ve been competitive in every game and have a +12 point differential on the season, despite being -7 in return touchdown differential. Aside from those 7 plays, they have a +60 point differential (which would be 4th best in the NFL). They have 38 offensive touchdowns on the season, as opposed to 27 allowed by their defense, a +11 differential that is only behind New England and Dallas (both at +14). The Broncos are a solid opponent, especially with quarterback Trevor Siemian back under center, but this line favors the Broncos by a point on the road. Tennessee is an underrated team that should be at least 3 or 4 point home favorites in this game.

The Broncos are also in a tough spot here with arguably their biggest regular season game on deck, a home clash against the New England Patriots, a game in which the Broncos will almost definitely be home underdogs. Road favorites are 51-71 ATS since 2002 before being home underdogs, as big upcoming home games can be a major distraction for teams. The Broncos are only 1 point favorites here, but I think they could easily overlook an underrated Tennessee team with New England on deck. The Titans could be without defensive end Jurrell Casey, but the Broncos could be without middle linebacker Brandon Marshall. Both teams are otherwise healthy, so those two injuries more or less cancel each other out, with Tennessee getting an advantage if Casey can play. I like the Titans a good amount this week.

Tennessee Titans 24 Denver Broncos 17 Upset Pick +100

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +1

Confidence: High