Chicago Bears (1-4) at Baltimore Ravens (3-2)

The Ravens are 3-2, but their 3 wins have come against the Bengals, the Browns, and the Raiders, who were without Derek Carr, right guard Gabe Jackson, and their top-2 cornerbacks. Meanwhile, their 2 losses (Jacksonville and Pittsburgh) came by a combined 58 points, giving them a -7 point differential on the season, despite the winning record and the easy schedule. They were alright to start the year, but have not been the same team since losing right guard Marshal Yanda and defensive tackle Brandon Williams to injury. They rank just 22nd in first down rate differential, just one spot ahead of their opponents this week, the Chicago Bears.

I also have these two teams close in my roster rankings as well, with Chicago getting Danny Trevathan back from suspension this week, so we’re getting good line value with the Bears as 6.5 point underdogs. I have this line calculated at 3.5, as these two teams are much more similar than the general public realizes. I’m holding out for this line to go back to 7, where it briefly was at the beginning of the week, but the Bears are still worth a bet at 6.5. If this line jumps back to a full touchdown between now and game time, I’ll make this a higher confidence pick.

Baltimore Ravens 17 Chicago Bears 13

Pick against the spread: Chicago +6.5

Confidence: Medium