Month: October 2017

Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys: 2017 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Green Bay Packers (3-1) at Dallas Cowboys (2-2)

The Cowboys went 12-4 last year, but did not enter the 2017 season with as talented of a team, after losing 2 key starters on their offensive line and several key members of their secondary this off-season, and then losing top interior pass rusher David Irving for the first 4 games of the season with suspension. After 4 games, they are 2-2, despite not facing a particularly tough schedule, beating the Giants and Cardinals, a pair of below average teams, and losing to the Broncos and the Rams, a pair of middling teams.

Irving returns for the Cowboys this week, but he’s a one-year wonder coming off of a PED suspension, so he might not be a huge help for this team. The Cowboys will be without stud linebacker Sean Lee, their most important defensive player, for the 2nd straight week and could be without talented left tackle Tyron Smith after he aggravated a back injury in practice. Those injuries further weaken their offensive line and defense in time for by far their toughest game of the season.

The Packers enter at 3-1 and are going in the opposite direction injury wise, with stud defensive end Mike Daniels and talented starting offensive tackles David Bakhtiari and Bryan Bulaga expected to return this week. The Packers last played on Thursday Night Football and the 10-day layoff allowed them to get as healthy as they’ve been all season. Given the state of these two rosters, I have these two teams about 4 points apart. However, this line is -2 in favor of the hometown Cowboys, suggesting these two teams are about 1 point apart.

We’re getting significant line value with the Packers before you even take into account that the Cowboys have had very little noticeable homefield advantage in recent years, as they tend to attract fans wherever they go. They are just 30-30 straight up at home since 2010, with an average differential of 1.68 points per game. Contrast that with their road record of 31-27 over that time period, with an average differential of -0.48 points per game. Their homefield advantage is really only worth about a point. The oddsmakers usually don’t correct for that, so the Cowboys are 21-38 ATS at home since 2010, including 13-30 ATS as a favorite. I have this line calculated at -3 in favor of the visiting Packers, so we’re getting 5 points of line value with Green Bay. This is my Pick of the Week as long as we’re getting points.

Green Bay Packers 31 Dallas Cowboys 27 Upset Pick +110

Pick against the spread: Green Bay +2

Confidence: Pick of the Week

New England Patriots at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2017 Week 5 NFL Pick

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New England Patriots (2-2) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1)

The Patriots lost last week at home to the Panthers 33-30 on a last second field goal, after the Patriots tied it up in the 4th with back-to-back touchdown drives. Historically, the Patriots have been a great bet after a loss in the Tom Brady/Bill Belichick era. Brady is 36-17 ATS in his career after a loss, while Belichick is 46-24 ATS off of a loss since taking over as head coach of the Patriots in 2000. However, we’re not getting any line value with the Patriots this week, as this line actually jumped from 4.5 to 5.5 between the early line last week and the line this week.

Both casual bettors and the oddsmakers know not to doubt Brady and Belichick anymore after their 4th and 5th Super Bowls, so taking Brady off of a loss isn’t as intriguing of a bet as it used to be. Earlier this year, the Patriots/Saints line stayed at 6.5 even after the Patriots lost at home week 1 to the Chiefs as big favorites. The Patriots went on to cover that game, but that’s their only cover of the season, as they lost twice at home as big favorites and nearly lost a 3rd time, needing a last second touchdown drive to defeat the Texans by 2 as 14-point favorites.

The big concern coming into the season with the Patriots was Tom Brady’s age and whether or not he could continue being a high level quarterback at age 40, but Brady looks as good as ever despite his age. The reason the Patriots have been struggling to win games is because their defense looks as bad as it ever has. The Patriots are moving the chains at a 41.76% rate, 2nd in the NFL to Kansas City, but are still -1.77% in first down rate differential because their defense has allowed opponents to move the chains at a 43.53% rate. As good as their offense is, their defense is making opposing offenses look even better.

The Patriots are obviously very well coached and will probably figure out their defensive issues by mid-season as usual, especially since they return most of their 2016 defense, which was one of the better defenses in the league. However, I can’t justify taking them as 5.5 point favorites this week. My numbers have these two teams are 6 points apart, suggesting the Patriots should be favored by only a field goal. I like the advantage Brady and Belichick have on a short week, even on the road, and I think they have a good chance to bounce back, but the Buccaneers are probably the smarter choice against the spread. This is a no confidence pick.

New England Patriots 31 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay +5.5

Confidence: None

2017 Week 4 NFL Pick Results

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2017

Straight Up: 37-26

Against the Spread: 34-29

Pick of the Week: 2-2

High Confidence: 4-3

Medium Confidence: 9-9

Money Picks (Medium confidence and higher): 15-14

Low Confidence: 9-7

No Confidence: 10-8

Upset Picks: 4-4

Since 2013

Straight Up: 713-414-4 (63.22%)

Against the Spread: 586-517-28 (53.05%)

Pick of the Week: 42-30-2 (58.11%)

High Confidence: 63-51-3 (55.13%)

Medium Confidence: 175-128-5 (57.63%)

Money Picks (Medium confidence and higher): 280-209-10 (57.11%)

Low Confidence: 154-152-9 (50.32%)

No Confidence: 152-156-9 (49.37%)

Upset Picks: 93-117 (44.29%)