Month: December 2017

Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals: 2017 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Rams (8-3) at Arizona Cardinals (5-6)

The Rams are coming off their biggest win of the season, as they snapped the Saints’ 8-game losing streak last week, but they are in a terrible spot this week in Arizona. This seems like an obvious trap game, given that the Rams have to host the NFC leading Eagles next week, a game in which they will definitely be home underdogs (+3 on the early line). Road favorites are just 36-57 ATS since 2008 before being home underdogs and the Rams could easily slip up with a tough game on deck.

That being said, I wouldn’t recommend a bet on the Cardinals at +7, as we just aren’t getting that much line value with them. I have this line calculated at Rams -6.5, as the Cardinals are missing a ton of expected starters with injury. The Cardinals pulled off the upset as 5 point home underdogs last week against the Jaguars, but that actually puts them in a bad spot this week, as teams only cover at a 45% rate after a win as home underdogs. It could be tough for the Cardinals to put up that kind of effort two weeks in a row, especially with Adrian Peterson being questionable with a neck injury. I’m taking the Cardinals for pick ‘em purposes, but would need at least 7.5 to consider making a bet on them.

Los Angeles Rams 24 Arizona Cardinals 20

Pick against the spread: Arizona +7

Confidence: Low

Denver Broncos at Miami Dolphins: 2017 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Denver Broncos (3-8) at Miami Dolphins (4-7)

The Dolphins have 4 wins, but they are are one of the worst teams in the league, as they rank 31st in both point differential (-115) and first down rate differential (-6.78%). Their 4 wins have come by a combined 14 points, while their 7 losses have come by a combined 129 points, an average margin of defeat of 18.43 points. They’ve been even worse since losing talented right tackle Ja’Wuan James for the season. He was their best offensive lineman and his loss is a huge blow to an otherwise weak offensive line.

The Broncos enter on a 8-game losing streak, but they are still the better of these two teams. They rank 24th in first down rate at -2.67%, not good, but significantly better than the Dolphins. Despite their long losing streak, they’ve actually won the first down rate battle in 3 of 7 games, against the Giants, Chiefs, and Bengals. They lost those games primarily because of turnover margin, but turnover margins tend to be inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. The Broncos rank 2nd worst in turnover margin at -16, but they could play turnover neutral football going forward if their defense can force more takeaways, after strangely forcing just 8 through 11 games. This week could be a good place to start, given their matchup.

In addition to winning the first down battle against the three aforementioned teams, the Broncos could have won the first down battle and the game last week against Oakland had Trevor Siemian started the game. Paxton Lynch was horrendous before going down with an ankle injury and Siemian was able to make it a one score game despite being down 21 in the 4th quarter. The only 3 teams that have beaten them convincingly on their losing streak are the Chargers, Eagles, and Patriots, who are among the best teams in the league.

Siemian will start this week for the Broncos. He hasn’t been good this season, but he’s probably Denver’s best quarterback, even if only by default. He was their quarterback when they started 3-1 and has shown he can win games in the past if the Broncos run the ball well and play strong defense, which they should be able to do this week against an inferior opponent. That being said, I wish the Broncos were not missing cornerback Aqib Talib and right guard Ronald Leary with suspension and injury respectively, as I have this line calculated at just Denver -2 with those two missing, meaning we aren’t getting much line value with Denver at -1.5.

The Dolphins are in a terrible spot though, with a huge home game against the Patriots on deck, as teams are 35-75 ATS since 2012 before being 6+ point home underdogs (Miami is -11.5 on the early line). Teams understandably struggle the week before a tough home game. The Broncos played their worst game of the season in Philadelphia the week before hosting the Patriots and the Dolphins could do so as well this week. This game is actually sandwiched on Miami’s schedule in between a pair of games against New England, so the Dolphins could definitely overlook the Broncos a little bit. The Broncos, meanwhile, have another easy game against the Jets on deck, so they should be focused this week. Given that, the Broncos are worth a small bet as long as the line stays under 3.

Denver Broncos 16 Miami Dolphins 10

Pick against the spread: Denver -1.5

Confidence: Medium

Kansas City Chiefs at New York Jets: 2017 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs (6-5) at New York Jets (4-7)

Entering the season, the Chiefs were near the top of my overrated list. They finished the 2016 season 12-4, but that was largely because of a +16 turnover margin (and a subsequent +7 return touchdown margin) and a 6-3 record in games decided by 8 or fewer points, two things that tend to be inconsistent on a year-to-year basis. They ranked just 24th in first down rate differential and looked poised for a disappointing 2017. That assessment looked incorrect to start the season when the Chiefs won their first 5 games, they were never as good as that record suggested.

Many of those wins were close and their offense was highly unlikely to continue its incredibly low turnover rate (1 turnover in the first 5 games) and its high yards per carry average (5.70 YPC). Those rates have dropped significantly in the 6 games since, as they have 7 turnovers and a 3.50 YPC average in those 6 games. On the defensive side, they’ve continued to struggle mightily without All-Pro safety Eric Berry, who tore his achilles in the opener in New England. They rank dead last in first down rate allowed at 38.21% and have struggled mightily to get off the field when they aren’t forcing turnovers.

As a result, they’ve lost 5 of 6 games, with their one win coming at home against Denver, a 3-8 team who outgained them by 100 yards. In their last 2 weeks, they’ve lost to the Giants and the Bills, who have both made quarterback changes in the last month. Once 5-0, the Chiefs are now 6-5 with a precarious 1-game lead over the Raiders and Chargers in the AFC West. The Chiefs rank just 19th in my roster rankings and just 22nd in first down rate differential at -2.02%, so I think they’re still a little bit worse than their record.

The spreads don’t seem to be catching up with how bad the Chiefs have been lately, as they are favored by more than a field goal here in New York against the Jets. They were 6 point favorites on the early line last week, but just 14% of games are decided by 4-6 points, so that’s not a huge shift, given that the Chiefs lost at home to the Bills, who were coming off 3 straight losses by a combined 80 points. As long as this line is higher than 3 points, we are getting great line value with the Jets, as about 25% of games are decided by 3 points or fewer.

The Jets were +6 at home for the Panthers last week and were leading them before two Carolina fourth quarter return touchdowns. Even still, the Jets came close to covering in a 8-point loss and that was their only non-cover of the year at home. They’ve beaten the Bills, Dolphins, and Jaguars at home and have played close games against the Patriots and Falcons. I don’t see why they couldn’t at least keep it within a field goal against the Chiefs and I think they have a good chance to win straight up as well. I locked this in at 4 earlier this week, but the Jets are a high confidence pick at 3.5 as well and a medium confidence pick at 3. The money line is also worth a bet at +160.

New York Jets 24 Kansas City Chiefs 23 Upset Pick +160

Pick against the spread: NY Jets +4

Confidence: High

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills: 2017 Week 13 NFL Pick

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New England Patriots (9-2) at Buffalo Bills (6-5)

The Bills pulled the upset in Kansas City last week, but the Chiefs have long been overrated and have lost 5 of 6, so that upset isn’t as impressive as it might seem. The Bills are undoubtedly a better team with Tyrod Taylor back under center, but they lost by a combined 50 points to the Jets and Saints in Taylor’s two starts prior to his start in Kansas City. The Bills started the season 5-2 with Taylor under center before that, but that was largely because of a +14 turnover margin. In the 4 games since, they are -8 in turnover margin.

Part of that is because of Nathan Peterman’s 5-interception half against the Chargers, but turnover margins tend to be inconsistent on a week-to-week basis, so the Bills were always likely to regress to the mean in turnover margin. They’ve struggled to win the first down battle regardless of who is under center, as they rank 30th in first down rate differential at -6.48%. Taylor is a capable starting quarterback, but he isn’t working with much in the receiving corps, especially with Kelvin Benjamin out, and their defense has problems getting off the field if they aren’t forcing turnovers.

The New England Patriots come to town on a 7-game winning streak and, even more impressively, a 14-game winning streak away from New England. They’ve won those 14 games by an average of 13.21 points and covered the spread in 11 of them. The Patriots have fans throughout the country, much like the Cowboys, so it makes sense that they’d do well even away from home. They’re also in a great spot with only a trip to Miami on deck. Big favorites tend to cover before being big favorites again, as favorites of 7+ are 67-42 ATS since 2012 before being favorites of 7+ again (New England is -11.5 in Miami on the early line). Without any upcoming distractions, the Patriots should take care of business and get another double digit road victory, against a significantly inferior Bills team. This is a high confidence pick as long as the line is below 10.

New England Patriots 34 Buffalo Bills 20

Pick against the spread: New England -9

Confidence: High

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints: 2017 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Carolina Panthers (8-3) at New Orleans Saints (8-3)

The Saints had their 8-game winning streak snapped last week in Los Angeles. The Rams are a tough opponent and the Saints were missing their top-2 cornerbacks, Marshon Lattimore and Ken Crawley, so it wasn’t a huge shock, especially since the Rams were home favorites. The Saints return home this week, but they have another tough matchup with the Panthers coming to town. They also still have injury issues. While Crawley is expected to return, the Saints will be missing talented rookie safety Marcus Williams and pass catching tight end Coby Fleener, while Lattimore and left tackle Terron Armstead are questionable after being limited in practice all week this week.

Making matters worse, the Saints have to turn around and play an even tougher game in Atlanta on 4 days rest on Thursday Night Football next week. That might mean the Saints hold out either Lattimore and/or Armstead with the intention of them being 100% for the Atlanta game, but even if both play the Saints are still in a terrible spot with that game on deck. Favorites are 64-95 ATS since 2008 before Thursday Night Football and divisional home favorites are just 24-62 ATS since 2002 before being divisional road underdogs. Both of those trends are very much in play here.

The Panthers have a tough game next week too, as they face the Vikings, but at least that game is at home in Carolina and on normal rest. The Panthers are favored by 3 in that one on the early line, while the Saints are 3 point underdogs in Atlanta. Underdogs are 67-41 ATS since 2014 before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs. That trend is not quite as relevant as the two aforementioned trends because Carolina’s next upcoming game isn’t easy, but there’s no denying that the Panthers enter this game in a much better situation schedule wise.

The Saints beat the Panthers 34-13 in Carolina back in week 3, but that was when Cam Newton was still working his way back from off-season shoulder surgery. The Panthers also didn’t have either center Ryan Kalil or tight end Greg Olsen in that one and both could play this week, though they might not be 100%. Teams tend to avenge on divisional home upsets anyway, as divisional road underdogs are 66-37 ATS since 2002 in regular season, same season revenge games against a team that previously pulled an upset against them. These two teams aren’t far off in talent, so it makes sense that the Panthers would at least come close to evening the season series this week, especially since the Saints could overlook them a little bit, given that they’ve already beaten them and that they have another big game in 4 days.

All of that being said, I wish we were getting a better line than Carolina +5. That’s about what I have this one calculated at, so we aren’t getting any real line value with the Panthers. The Saints are banged up, but they are the better team, as they rank 3rd in first down rate, while Carolina ranks 11th. The Saints’ 8 victories have all come by more than a touchdown, while just 3 of Carolina’s have. The Panthers still worth a bet because of the terrible spot the Saints are in and they should be able to keep this within a field goal or so, but this is just a medium confidence pick. I will upgrade this to a high confidence pick if the line shoots up to 6 before game time or if either Lattimore or Armstead are ruled out.

New Orleans Saints 23 Carolina Panthers 20

Pick against the spread: Carolina +5

Confidence: Medium