Year: 2017

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos: 2017 Week 10 NFL Pick

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New England Patriots (6-2) at Denver Broncos (3-5)

This line has the Broncos as 7.5 point home underdogs against the Patriots and I don’t understand it. The Broncos were just 7 point road underdogs in Philadelphia last week and the Eagles are playing significantly better than the Patriots this season. The Broncos lost that game 51-23, but the Eagles were in a great spot heading into a bye and the Broncos likely quit once they got down big early, knowing that they had this game against the Patriots on deck. They should be a lot more focused for this game and they are back at home, where they are 3-1 this season, with wins over the Chargers, Cowboys, and Raiders.

The Broncos’ big loss in Philadelphia last week moved this line from 5.5 on the early line to 7.5, a sizeable shift considering about 15% of games are decided by 6-7 points. I think even 5.5 would be too high as I have this line calculated at New England -3. Even after by far their worst defensive showing of the year last week, the Broncos still rank 5th in first down rate allowed and they still have a top-5 defense on paper. Prior to last week, Denver ranked 1st in the NFL in first down rate allowed. Their offense has major problems led by Brock Osweiler, but the Patriots rank 31st in first down rate allowed and the Broncos might be able to run the ball effectively and hide Osweiler, especially if the game is going to be close.

The one concern with taking the Broncos is that the Patriots are coming off of a bye and road favorites of 3.5 or more points are 40-16 ATS since 1989 after a regular season bye when their opponent is not coming off of a bye. The Patriots don’t come out of the bye healthy though, with defensive tackle Malcom Brown, right tackle Marcus Cannon, and wide receiver Chris Hogan out this week. I’m not sure the Patriots deserve to even be 3.5 point road favorites and I definitely think 7.5 is way too high for this line. Without another strong option this week, this is my Pick of the Week.

New England Patriots 20 Denver Broncos 17

Pick against the spread: Denver +7.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

New Orleans Saints at Buffalo Bills: 2017 Week 10 NFL Pick

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New Orleans Saints (6-2) at Buffalo Bills (5-3)

The Bills started the season 5-2 on the strength of a league best +14 turnover margin, but turnover margins tend to be inconsistent on a week-to-week basis and they ranked just 28th in first down rate differential. Last week, they lost 34-21 in New York to the Jets as 3.5 point road favorites, in a game in which they lost the turnover margin by -3. They also had a first down rate differential of -5.54% in that game and still rank 28th in first down rate differential on the season at -3.89%. If we assume turnover neutral football for the Bills in the second half of the season, which you almost always should when evaluating a team given how inconsistent turnover margins are, the Bills will have a lot harder time winning games in the second half of the season.

Despite Buffalo’s big loss, I was still able to lock this line in at -2.5 in favor of the visiting Saints earlier in the week, the same line as the early line last week. You can still get that line in a few places for a higher vig. I have these two teams about 6.5 points apart in my roster rankings, so this line should be at least -3, if not higher. About 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal, so the difference between -2.5 and -3/-3.5 is pretty big. The Saints are 6-2, have won 6 straight, rank 6th in first down rate differential, and have one of the more talented rosters in the NFL thanks to a much improved defense. Only about 8% of games are decided by 2 points or less, so the Saints basically need to just win here. They should be able to win this game by at least a field goal. This is a high confidence pick.

New Orleans Saints 27 Buffalo Bills 21

Pick against the spread: New Orleans -2.5

Confidence: High

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals: 2017 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (5-3) at Arizona Cardinals (4-4)

The Seahawks lost at home to a banged up Redskins team last week, causing this line to drop from 7 in favor of the Seahawks on the early line last week to 6 this week. That might not seem like a huge line movement, but 7 is a key number because about 9% of games are decided by 7 points exactly, making it the 2nd most common margin of victory, behind 3 (15%). It’s also a bit of an overreaction because the Seahawks won the first down battle in that game 22 and 16 and would have won the game (which they ended up losing by 3) had they not missed 3 makeable field goals. If the Seahawks win last week, even in a close one, I think this line stays put at 7.

The Cardinals won in San Francisco last week, but, with all of their injuries, the 49ers are arguably the least talented team in the league this year, so that wasn’t a terribly impressive win. The Cardinals were able to establish their running game with Adrian Peterson, which allowed them to hide quarterback Drew Stanton, who is filling in for an injured Carson Palmer. That gameplan won’t be as successful this week because the Seahawks have a much better run defense and, if Seattle gets up big early, they won’t be able to keep their play calling as conservative (43 runs to 30 passes against the 49ers). Peterson could also be worn out on a short week, after getting 39 touches last week, most ever by a running back over 30. Peterson is obviously a freak of nature, something he’s proven time and time again, but 60+ touches in 5-day stretch is a lot for any running back, especially one over 30.

Despite their loss last week, the Seahawks are still one of the better teams in the league, especially now that they have an actual left tackle after acquiring Duane Brown from the Texans at the trade deadline. They’re also healthier this week than last with Sheldon Richardson returning from a one-game absence. Earl Thomas remains out, but he won’t be needed as much in this game because of the Cardinals’ quarterback situation. The Cardinals were a below average team even before the Palmer injury and Stanton is arguably the worst starting quarterback in the NFL right now. He hasn’t completed more than 50% of his passes or had more touchdowns than interceptions in a season since 2013 and he has a career QB rating of 65.9. We’re not getting enough line value with the Seahawks to take them confidently, but they should be the right pick as long as the line is lower than a touchdown.

Also, by request, I’m going to be posting lines I lock in early in the week during my Thursday Night writeups this season, so readers can lock them in before they move. These are not all my picks for the week, just picks where I think the line may move in an unfavorable direction (usually underdogs). The rest of the writeups will continue to be posted over the weekend as normal.

NO -2.5 @ BUF (I would NOT take -3)

DAL +3.5 @ ATL (I would also take +3)

LAC +4.5 @ JAX (I would also take +4 and +3.5)

Seattle Seahawks 17 Arizona Cardinals 9

Pick against the spread: Seattle -6

Confidence: Low

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers: 2017 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Arizona Cardinals (3-4) at San Francisco 49ers (0-8)

The 49ers entered the season with among the worst rosters in the NFL and things have just gotten worse from there thanks to injuries. The 49ers are currently without left tackle Joe Staley, #1 wide receiver Pierre Garcon, defensive ends Solomon Thomas, Aaron Lynch, Arik Armstead, and Tank Carradine, and safety Jimmie Ward, all of whom were valuable players for this team. I have the 49ers currently dead last in my roster rankings.

That being said, we are still getting line value with them as 2.5 point home underdogs against the Cardinals because the Cardinals also enter with significant injury problems and one of the worst rosters in the NFL. The Cardinals have lost left guard Mike Iupati, running back David Johnson, outside linebacker Markus Golden, and most importantly quarterback Carson Palmer to injured reserve. Palmer was not playing at an elite level or anything, but he wasn’t playing badly either and backup Drew Stanton is among the worst backups in the league. They shouldn’t be favored by this many points no matter the opponent, given the current state of their roster.

The 49ers have been blown out in each of the past two weeks against the Cowboys and Eagles, losing both games by 21+ points, but they have a great chance to bounce back against a much easier opponent this week. Teams tend to cover off of back-to-back losses by 21+ points, going 45-30 ATS in that spot since 2002. It’s counterintuitive, but it makes sense, as teams coming off back-to-back blowouts tend to be overlooked, underrated, and embarrassed. The 49ers should be some combination of those this week.

The Cardinals, meanwhile, are in a terrible spot because they have to turn around and host the Seahawks in one of their toughest games of the season. Favorites are just 60-92 ATS since 2008 before Thursday Night Football and that’s before you even take into account how big of a game it’s going to be for the Cardinals. The early line has them as 7 point home underdogs and teams are 30-70 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of 6 points or more, as big upcoming home games tend to present a distraction for teams.

On top of that, road favorites like the Cardinals are here are 17-36 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs. With a much tougher game 4 days after this one, the Cardinals could easily look past the 49ers and lose this game as a result. The difference in talent level between these two teams is less than you’d think right now. I’m holding out hope that this line creeps up to 3 before game time, in which case this would become a high confidence pick, but I’d bet the 49ers at 2.5 regardless and I’d also take the money line at +125.

San Francisco 49ers 16 Arizona Cardinals 13 Upset Pick +125

Pick against the spread: San Francisco +2.5

Confidence: Medium

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers: 2017 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Atlanta Falcons (4-3) at Carolina Panthers (5-3)

The Panthers made a bizarre move at the trade deadline on Tuesday, trading #1 wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin to the Bills for a 3rd and 7th round pick. With Benjamin going into the final year of his contract in 2018, it’s the kind of move that would make some sense for a team that is out of playoff contention, but the Panthers are right in the mix for a playoff spot in the NFC at 5-3, making the move a real headscratcher. They’ve already had major issues offensively this season with center Ryan Kalil and tight end Greg Olsen out with injury. Taking Benjamin out of the mix just hurts this offense even more. Their primary weapons in the passing game are now Devin Funchess, Christian McCaffrey, and Ed Dickson and they haven’t been able to run the ball consistently all season.

That trade prompted this line to shift from about -1 in favor of Carolina to -2.5 in favor of Atlanta. That seems like a significant line movement, but it’s within the field goals, so it’s the kind of line movement that likely won’t have an actual effect on the outcome against the spread, as about 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal. With that in mind, I’m taking the Falcons here, as I have this line calculated right between 2.5 and 3 in favor of the visiting Falcons. This is just a no confidence pick though, as we’re not getting much line value with Atlanta.

Atlanta Falcons 23 Carolina Panthers 20

Pick against the spread: Atlanta -2.5

Confidence: None

Washington Redskins at Seattle Seahawks: 2017 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Washington Redskins (3-4) at Seattle Seahawks (5-2)

The Seahawks have to play again 4 days after this game as they are on Thursday Night Football in week 10. Favorites typically do not do well before Thursday Night Football, going 60-92 ATS since 2008 in that spot. There are two big problems with betting against Seattle this week though. The first is that the Seahawks are only facing the Cardinals next week, so it’s not like they have a tough upcoming matchup on the short week. The early line has the Seahawks favored by a touchdown in Arizona. Teams are 73-54 ATS since 2012 before being road favorites of 5 or more. On top of that, favorites of 6+ like the Seahawks are this week are 103-63 ATS since 2012 before being favored by 6+ again the following week.

The second problem is that the Redskins come in here incredibly banged up and I don’t know if this line fully takes that into account. They’ll be without left tackle Trent Williams, left guard Shawn Lauvao, center Spencer Long, wide receiver Jamison Crowder, tight end Jordan Reed, defensive end Matt Ioannidis, middle linebacker Mason Foster, and defensive end Jonathan Allen, a whopping nine week 1 starters. On top of that, they could also be without cornerback Bashaud Breeland and right guard Brandon Scherff, another two week 1 starters.

The Seahawks have injury problems of their own with left guard Luke Joeckel, running back Chris Carson, defensive end Cliff Avril, and safety Earl Thomas out and middle linebacker Bobby Wagner and defensive tackle Sheldon Richardson expected to be gametime calls. Their injury situation still is significantly better than Washington’s though and this line isn’t high enough at 7.5 to confidently bet on the Redskins unless Scherff plays for Washington and Wagner does not for Seattle. If that happens, I’ll revisit this pick in the morning, but, for now, this is a low confidence pick.

Seattle Seahawks 24 Washington Redskins 17

Pick against the spread: Washington +7.5

Confidence: Low

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints: 2017 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-5) at New Orleans Saints (5-2)

The Buccaneers were a popular playoff pick before the start of the season, but the public seems to have soured on them, as a result of a 2-5 start. They haven’t been quite as bad as their record though, they rank 15th in the NFL in first down rate differential. Three of their 5 losses have been by 5 or fewer points (Arizona, New England, and Buffalo) and they would have beaten the Patriots had if they had made one of three missed field goals. They’ve since changed field goal kickers.

How they’ve played this season is actually pretty impressive considering all the players that have missed time so far this season. Cornerback Brent Grimes, safety TJ Ward, linebackers Lavonte David and Kwon Alexander, defensive end Noah Spence, defensive tackle Chris Baker, running back Doug Martin, and quarterback Jameis Winston have all been out of the lineup at points this season. They still aren’t fully healthy, as Grimes and Spence remain out, while Winston may still not be at 100% with a shoulder injury, but they’re as healthy as they’ve been in a while.

They lost last week at home to the Panthers, but they were in a bad spot in that game with this tough divisional matchup on deck. I expect a much better effort from them this week with their season on the line. Unfortunately, they have a very tough matchup in New Orleans against a Saints team that has a much improved defense and is arguably one of the top-5 teams in the league. We’re getting 7 points with the Buccaneers, but I have this line calculated at -6, so we’re not getting a lot of line value with Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers are underrated and better than their record, but the Saints might be a little underrated as well. I’d need at least 7.5 points to consider putting money on the Buccaneers.

New Orleans Saints 30 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay +7

Confidence: Low

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers: 2017 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Detroit Lions (3-4) at Green Bay Packers (4-3)

The Lions have been on my overrated last for a while. They made the playoffs last season with a 9-7 record, but 8 of those wins came by a touchdown or less and none of their wins came against playoff qualifiers. They finished the season 28th in first down rate differential, worst among playoff qualifiers. So far this season, they rank 25th in first down rate differential and are 3-4 on the season, with wins over the Cardinals, the Giants, and the Case Keenum led Vikings. They’re arguably even less talented than last season with left tackle Taylor Decker and defensive end Kerry Hyder out indefinitely. They have major problems on the offensive line and in the running game and their defense is middling at best.

Despite that, they seem to still be a little bit overrated, as they are 2.5 point favorites in Green Bay this week. They should only be favored by that many on the road against the worst teams in the league and, even without Aaron Rodgers, the Packers are not among the worst teams in the league. They still have a strong offensive line, good pass catchers, and a capable front 7, and rookie running back Aaron Jones has given life to this running game for the first time in a while.

They played a good New Orleans team close before their bye in Brett Hundley’s first start without top defensive back Morgan Burnett. Now coming off the bye with Burnett back healthy, they should be able to give the Lions a close game too or even pull the upset. I’d need a full field goal to put money on the spread, but the money line is a smart bet at +115 because this game is a toss up at best. If this line creeps up to a field goal before game time, I’ll consider upgrading this to a medium confidence pick. About 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal, so getting protection against a field goal win by Detroit is key.

Green Bay Packers 21 Detroit Lions 20 Upset Pick +115

Pick against the spread: Green Bay +2.5

Confidence: Low

Kansas City Chiefs at Dallas Cowboys: 2017 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs (6-2) at Dallas Cowboys (4-3)

After souring on the Cowboys after their 2-3 start, the public seems back on board with the Cowboys following back-to-back road wins, as they are now 2.5 point home favorites against the Kansas City Chiefs, who enter at 6-2. The Cowboys have always played well on the road though and they were playing the 49ers and a banged up Redskins team, so their level of competition wasn’t that high. Now they return home to face a much better opponent.

The Cowboys are 33-27 on the road since 2010 (35-25 ATS), outscoring opponents by an average of 0.27 points per game, as opposed to 30-31 at home (21-29 ATS), outscoring opponents by an average of 1.59 points per game. Because of their nationwide fanbase, they tend to draw support wherever they travel, so their homefield advantage hasn’t even been worth a full point in recent years. Given that, this line suggests the Cowboys are about 1.5-2 points better than the Chiefs.

I don’t think the Chiefs are quite as good as their record because of their defensive problems, but I think they’re still a little bit better than Dallas, who also have significant problems on defense. I have this line calculated at even. I’d need a full field goal to put money on the spread, but the money line is a smart bet at +120 because this game is a toss up at best. If this line creeps up to a field goal before game time, I’ll consider upgrading this to a medium confidence pick. About 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal, so getting protection against a field goal win by Dallas is key.

Kansas City Chiefs 31 Dallas Cowboys 30 Upset Pick +120

Pick against the spread: Kansas City +2.5

Confidence: Low