New York Jets (2-7) at Washington Redskins (1-8)

These two teams are very similar. Both have had awful seasons, as the Jets rank 31st in first down rate differential at -7.54% and the Redskins rank 30th at -7.07%, but both have been slightly better when a key player has been in the lineup. The Jets have a 31.14% first down rate and a -4.36% first down rate differential in the 6 games quarterback Sam Darnold has started, while the Redskins have a 31.81% first down rate and a -4.18% first down rate differential in the 7 games guard Brandon Scherff has started. Darnold has struggled in his second season in the league, but he’s been a massive upgrade over backup quarterback Luke Falk, while Scherff is one of the top interior offensive linemen in the league and his impact has been very noticeable for a team that wants to run the football up the middle.

In my roster rankings, I have these two teams with identical scores, tied for 3rd worst in the NFL ahead of the Bengals and Dolphins. This line, favoring the hometown Redskins by 2 points, suggests the Jets are slightly better, so we’re getting a little bit of line value with the Redskins, but not nearly enough to bet them confidently. The Redskins should be the pick for pick ‘em purposes, if only because the single most likely outcome in any football game is the home team winning by a field goal. 

Washington Redskins 19 New York Jets 16

Pick against the spread: Washington -2

Confidence: None